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Some people seem to think trading up is the only good deal possible. Some want to trade up without any player in mind. Some people think they are smarter than others, so this strategy will consistently work.
If so, you should be following the Saints.
This is a good article (despite the Football Outsiders link which some of you can't stand). Well worth reading.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/saints-draft-and-winners-curse
Loomis is one of the most aggressive GMs in the game on draft day for trading up. Since taking over for Ditka, who mortgaged an entire draft and then some for Ricky Williams, Loomis has made 16 pick-only trades.
8 were trades up, with 3 involving moving up in the 1st round. Another 5 involved trading future picks. And only 3 were trades back. Using career AV as a measuring stick, the trades have cost them -23.4 points, or the equivalent of the 6th overall pick. But if you only look at the trades up, it's actually worse, -33, or somewhere between the 1st and 2nd overall pick.
There's a certain ego involved in thinking you know more than everyone else. It's no different than the schmuck at home betting big on stocks after getting a hot tip from a friend, despite thousands of professionals who devote their lives to the market not being able to consistently beat it. Sure, everyone gets lucky now and then, just as a sucker wins big in Vegas from time to time. But it's not a consistent strategy.
And this looks obscure, using numbers and rounded values and blah blah blah. But let's look at the trades, particularly the trades up.
In 2014, they traded up for Brandin Cooks. It was a good pick, but they gave up their 1st and 3rd for it. The Cardinals took Deone Bucannon, and a WR in the 3rd who has done more than Cooks so far, John Brown. Cooks may end up being better, but so far, no. And the Saints also could have taken Kelvin Benjamin had they stayed put, who also had a better season than Cooks. Out of 3 WRs they could have drafted, they got the worse while losing their 3rd rounder in the process.
In 2013, they traded 2 early 4ths for a late 3rd. This isn't a huge deal but poor value. They gambled that John Jenkins would turn out to be more than just a role player, while David Bakhtiari would start every game for the Packers and Sims would be a similar level contributor to Jenkins.
In 2010, they traded up in the 4th for Al Woods. The picks they gave up didn't matter much, but Woods didn't even make the roster as a rookie, getting cut.
In 2008, Patriots fans remember the Saints trading a 3rd for our 5th to move up 3 spots to take Sedrick Ellis, who was a constant disappointment. Meanwhile we got Mayo, the superior player. Oddly, that 5th ended up being Carl Nicks, a Pro Bowl guard and one of the few stars from that draft. Hardly how they planned it though. It was reported they were trying to move up even higher for Dorsey, even offering their 2009 1st, but couldn't put it together fortunately for them. They also traded up slightly for DeMario Pressley in the 5th. Not a huge gamble, but he only lasted one season with the Saints.
In 2007, they moved up in the 4th to draft Antonio Pittman. Again, not a huge risk, but they moved up to get him, but then he didn't even make the roster as a rookie.
In 2004, they probably got the best result of a trade-up, selecting Pro Bowl fullback Mike Karney after trading a 6th and 7th for a 5th.
In 2003, they traded 2 1sts and a 2nd to move up to 6th overall and move up in the 2nd, as well as getting a 4th rounder back. The target: Johnathan Sullivan. He had 3 disappointing seasons before being traded for Bethel Johnson, then getting cut. Again, the Saints got more out of their later picks like Stinchcomb in the 2nd and Montrae Holland in the 4th than the guy they initially moved up to get.
So that's 1 out of 8 deals where the guy they targeted was worth it. They got lucky with some of the later picks or else those deals would look even worse.
What about trading the future?
We'll remember the last time they did this in 2011, because we got Shane Vereen and most of Chandler Jones for Mark Ingram.
In 2010, they traded their 2011 4th for a 5th which they used on Matt Tennant. Tennant only played 2 seasons for the Saints, bouncing around afterwards including a stint in NE. Chris Prosinski got drafted by the Jaguars, and while he had a pretty boring career, he outlasted Tennant. The pick had improved by 37 spots.
In 2009, the Saints traded their 7th rounder and a 2010 5th for a 5th round pick used on Thomas Morstead, a Pro Bowl punter. This deal seems worth it, until you realize that the 7th rounder they traded was used on Pat McAfee, a Pro Bowl punter who is superior to Morstead. That 2010 5th would bounce around a few teams, eventually being used by the Dolphins on Reshad Jones, a starting safety.
In 2008, the Saints traded their 2009 6th for a 7th rounder. The difference in picks would be 50 spots when all was said and done. The target was Adrian Arrington, who would play 5 games for the Saints. Brandon Underwood was drafted with the 2009 6th, and while he didn't have much of a career, he had a better one than Arrington.
In 2005, they gave up a future 3rd to move up 3 spots in the first round to select Jammal Brown, a Pro Bowl tackle. The Texans would draft Travis Johnson, who struggled with injuries, and Eric Winston with the 3rd. Finally, a trade the Saints can say they won.
So that's 13 deals where they aggressively traded up for someone, and maybe twice, you could say they were right about that player.
They've only traded down 3 times. It's interesting to see just how beneficial that was, yet they haven't figured this out.
In 2007, they moved down 8 spots from the late 2nd to early 3rd, and picked up a 5th rounder for it. While the Saints got maybe 3 years out of Usama Young and nothing out of Jones with the extra 5th, it was still more than the Lions got for trading up to draft Ikaika Alama-Francis (had to copy/paste that).
In 2004, the Vikings would give the Saints a 5th to move up 2 spots in the 2nd, drafting Dontarriuous Thomas, who would play 4 seasons for them as a role player. The Saints drafted Deverey Henderson, who had a much better career and was a key player in their 2009 championship. The 5th would be used in another trade-down later with Washington, who moved up for Chris Cooley. The Saints would blow the 5th on Rodney Leisle, but the 2005 2nd they got would be used on Josh Bullocks, who started 49 games for them over 4 seasons, although Cooley was the best player in that transaction.
I wouldn't call any of those decisive wins, but 2 out of 3 were good deals, while the 3rd wasn't a total blowout like some of the trade-ups.
This doesn't mean you should always trade down. But the odds are often against you, and the Saints found some of the later picks were better than their targeted guys in several trades. Aggressive does not mean brilliant. Conviction does not equal correct. We traded up for Jones and Hightower. We also traded up for Graham and Chad Jackson.
But a guy like Loomis would probably be appreciated around here by some folks, even if the results are terrible.
If so, you should be following the Saints.
This is a good article (despite the Football Outsiders link which some of you can't stand). Well worth reading.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/saints-draft-and-winners-curse
Loomis is one of the most aggressive GMs in the game on draft day for trading up. Since taking over for Ditka, who mortgaged an entire draft and then some for Ricky Williams, Loomis has made 16 pick-only trades.
8 were trades up, with 3 involving moving up in the 1st round. Another 5 involved trading future picks. And only 3 were trades back. Using career AV as a measuring stick, the trades have cost them -23.4 points, or the equivalent of the 6th overall pick. But if you only look at the trades up, it's actually worse, -33, or somewhere between the 1st and 2nd overall pick.
There's a certain ego involved in thinking you know more than everyone else. It's no different than the schmuck at home betting big on stocks after getting a hot tip from a friend, despite thousands of professionals who devote their lives to the market not being able to consistently beat it. Sure, everyone gets lucky now and then, just as a sucker wins big in Vegas from time to time. But it's not a consistent strategy.
And this looks obscure, using numbers and rounded values and blah blah blah. But let's look at the trades, particularly the trades up.
In 2014, they traded up for Brandin Cooks. It was a good pick, but they gave up their 1st and 3rd for it. The Cardinals took Deone Bucannon, and a WR in the 3rd who has done more than Cooks so far, John Brown. Cooks may end up being better, but so far, no. And the Saints also could have taken Kelvin Benjamin had they stayed put, who also had a better season than Cooks. Out of 3 WRs they could have drafted, they got the worse while losing their 3rd rounder in the process.
In 2013, they traded 2 early 4ths for a late 3rd. This isn't a huge deal but poor value. They gambled that John Jenkins would turn out to be more than just a role player, while David Bakhtiari would start every game for the Packers and Sims would be a similar level contributor to Jenkins.
In 2010, they traded up in the 4th for Al Woods. The picks they gave up didn't matter much, but Woods didn't even make the roster as a rookie, getting cut.
In 2008, Patriots fans remember the Saints trading a 3rd for our 5th to move up 3 spots to take Sedrick Ellis, who was a constant disappointment. Meanwhile we got Mayo, the superior player. Oddly, that 5th ended up being Carl Nicks, a Pro Bowl guard and one of the few stars from that draft. Hardly how they planned it though. It was reported they were trying to move up even higher for Dorsey, even offering their 2009 1st, but couldn't put it together fortunately for them. They also traded up slightly for DeMario Pressley in the 5th. Not a huge gamble, but he only lasted one season with the Saints.
In 2007, they moved up in the 4th to draft Antonio Pittman. Again, not a huge risk, but they moved up to get him, but then he didn't even make the roster as a rookie.
In 2004, they probably got the best result of a trade-up, selecting Pro Bowl fullback Mike Karney after trading a 6th and 7th for a 5th.
In 2003, they traded 2 1sts and a 2nd to move up to 6th overall and move up in the 2nd, as well as getting a 4th rounder back. The target: Johnathan Sullivan. He had 3 disappointing seasons before being traded for Bethel Johnson, then getting cut. Again, the Saints got more out of their later picks like Stinchcomb in the 2nd and Montrae Holland in the 4th than the guy they initially moved up to get.
So that's 1 out of 8 deals where the guy they targeted was worth it. They got lucky with some of the later picks or else those deals would look even worse.
What about trading the future?
We'll remember the last time they did this in 2011, because we got Shane Vereen and most of Chandler Jones for Mark Ingram.
In 2010, they traded their 2011 4th for a 5th which they used on Matt Tennant. Tennant only played 2 seasons for the Saints, bouncing around afterwards including a stint in NE. Chris Prosinski got drafted by the Jaguars, and while he had a pretty boring career, he outlasted Tennant. The pick had improved by 37 spots.
In 2009, the Saints traded their 7th rounder and a 2010 5th for a 5th round pick used on Thomas Morstead, a Pro Bowl punter. This deal seems worth it, until you realize that the 7th rounder they traded was used on Pat McAfee, a Pro Bowl punter who is superior to Morstead. That 2010 5th would bounce around a few teams, eventually being used by the Dolphins on Reshad Jones, a starting safety.
In 2008, the Saints traded their 2009 6th for a 7th rounder. The difference in picks would be 50 spots when all was said and done. The target was Adrian Arrington, who would play 5 games for the Saints. Brandon Underwood was drafted with the 2009 6th, and while he didn't have much of a career, he had a better one than Arrington.
In 2005, they gave up a future 3rd to move up 3 spots in the first round to select Jammal Brown, a Pro Bowl tackle. The Texans would draft Travis Johnson, who struggled with injuries, and Eric Winston with the 3rd. Finally, a trade the Saints can say they won.
So that's 13 deals where they aggressively traded up for someone, and maybe twice, you could say they were right about that player.
They've only traded down 3 times. It's interesting to see just how beneficial that was, yet they haven't figured this out.
In 2007, they moved down 8 spots from the late 2nd to early 3rd, and picked up a 5th rounder for it. While the Saints got maybe 3 years out of Usama Young and nothing out of Jones with the extra 5th, it was still more than the Lions got for trading up to draft Ikaika Alama-Francis (had to copy/paste that).
In 2004, the Vikings would give the Saints a 5th to move up 2 spots in the 2nd, drafting Dontarriuous Thomas, who would play 4 seasons for them as a role player. The Saints drafted Deverey Henderson, who had a much better career and was a key player in their 2009 championship. The 5th would be used in another trade-down later with Washington, who moved up for Chris Cooley. The Saints would blow the 5th on Rodney Leisle, but the 2005 2nd they got would be used on Josh Bullocks, who started 49 games for them over 4 seasons, although Cooley was the best player in that transaction.
I wouldn't call any of those decisive wins, but 2 out of 3 were good deals, while the 3rd wasn't a total blowout like some of the trade-ups.
This doesn't mean you should always trade down. But the odds are often against you, and the Saints found some of the later picks were better than their targeted guys in several trades. Aggressive does not mean brilliant. Conviction does not equal correct. We traded up for Jones and Hightower. We also traded up for Graham and Chad Jackson.
But a guy like Loomis would probably be appreciated around here by some folks, even if the results are terrible.
