OT: Jets Cap Nightmare in 2013

[BradyFTW!]

Whether or not it was just a PR move, if Sanchez doesn't make a leap into the top 10-12 this year, and that team doesn't make the playoffs, Johnson is going to have to can Tannenbaum. There are too many issues (PSLs, etc...) for that team to just keep swimming in place. They basically canned Mangini because his QB got injured, for crying out loud. I don't see Tannenbaum surviving a top 5 drafted QB disaster.

Imagine how different that team's fortunes would be if Sanchez and Ducasse didn't suck, Wilson was a legitimate CB2, and Gholston hadn't earned the Dolly Parton award.

That makes me think it was more than a PR stunt, but that's just a reading of the tea leaves, as it were.

To be fair, you could play that game with just about any team. Imagine how unstoppable the Pats would be if Darius Butler, Shawn Crable, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price had all turned into good players.

 

[Deus Irae]

To be fair, you could play that game with just about any team. Imagine how unstoppable the Pats would be if Darius Butler, Shawn Crable, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price had all turned into good players.

Sanchez and Gholston were top 10 picks. Wilson was a first round pick, and Ducasse was a 2nd round pick.

That's not playing the same game, at all.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Sanchez and Gholston were top 10 picks. Wilson was a first round pick, and Ducasse was a 2nd round pick.

That's not playing the same game, at all.

Fair point, although late-first round and second round picks busting isn't exactly rare, plus about half of the Patriots that I mentioned were second rounders. Top-10 QBs never panning out is pretty common, too. All in all though, I'd agree that the main issue with the Jets relates more to them being terrible at evaluating draft prospects since Mangini left, rather than salary cap management.

It's especially bad because their draft philosophy doesn't allow for misses like the Patriots' does. If you're going to trade up to draft someone, you'd better hit on him. Makes it especially important that Jones and Hightower both work out for us.

 

[Rob0729]

For whatever reason I think Woody looks all the guys in charge and their jobs will be safe barring a 3-13 type year. I think he will be on board with them navigating the reconstruction of the team. It was on Tannenbaums watch that they repaired the 2005 damage (and that was a pretty rough cap too), rebuilt for their run, and would now be re-tooling for the next run. So I think both are safe.

You have the pulse of the team better than I do. So you are probably right.

I do think Tannebaum could be tied to Revis though. I think you have written in the past Revis is stupid to hold out and you don't think he will. Several things tell me he might follow through with it:

1.) He has Uncle Sean Gilbert advising him. Gilbert got rewarded handsomely for holding out a year.
2.) I don't think Revis think he won't have a new deal by the 2013 season at the latest even if the Jets exercise the holdout clause in his contract. I just think he will still hold out and get what he wants even if he misses most or all of the 2012 season.
3.) I think he knows that with the lack of a pass rush by the Jets' front seven, their defense falls apart if Revis isn't there to take away the opposing team's best WR.

I think if Revis holds out for any stretch during the season and causes the Jets to go .500 or less, it could sour Johnson on Tannebaum since Tannebaum sold Johnson on a Revis contract that made it impossible for him to hold out again.

 

[Deus Irae]

Fair point, although late-first round and second round picks busting isn't exactly rare, plus about half of the Patriots that I mentioned were second rounders. Top-10 QBs never panning out is pretty common, too. All in all though, I'd agree that the main issue with the Jets relates more to them being terrible at evaluating draft prospects since Mangini left, rather than salary cap management.

It's especially bad because their draft philosophy doesn't allow for misses like the Patriots' does. If you're going to trade up to draft someone, you'd better hit on him. Makes it especially important that Jones and Hightower both work out for us.

That's why the Sanchez miss has been so damaging to that team. They'd put together a defense that could carry the team to the AFCCG with a stiff at QB. Now, with that defense not being as formidable, the lack of a decent QB is a real problem.

 

[BradyFTW!]

That's why the Sanchez miss has been so damaging to that team. They'd put together a defense that could carry the team to the AFCCG with a stiff at QB. Now, with that defense not being as formidable, the lack of a decent QB is a real problem.

The funny thing is, the Jets didn't give up as much as I thought I remembered them giving to trade up for Sanchez. They gave up the 17th overall and their second rounder (plus some JAGs) to move up to 5. I'd argue that being stuck paying Sanchez a top 5 pick's (pre-lockout) salary has been just as damaging as the fact that they had to give up an added second rounder to get him.

But still, it's been an unmitigated disaster. When you give up a first and a second to draft a quarterback and pay him upper-tier QB salary before he even steps on the field, then that sets your franchise back years if he doesn't at least become an above average starter. Especially when you compound the problem by continuing to trade up and starve your team of picks that have the potential, at least, to strike gold and fill in for your misses.

 

[jason423]

You have the pulse of the team better than I do. So you are probably right.

I do think Tannebaum could be tied to Revis though. I think you have written in the past Revis is stupid to hold out and you don't think he will. Several things tell me he might follow through with it:

1.) He has Uncle Sean Gilbert advising him. Gilbert got rewarded handsomely for holding out a year.
2.) I don't think Revis think he won't have a new deal by the 2013 season at the latest even if the Jets exercise the holdout clause in his contract. I just think he will still hold out and get what he wants even if he misses most or all of the 2012 season.
3.) I think he knows that with the lack of a pass rush by the Jets' front seven, their defense falls apart if Revis isn't there to take away the opposing team's best WR.

I think if Revis holds out for any stretch during the season and causes the Jets to go .500 or less, it could sour Johnson on Tannebaum since Tannebaum sold Johnson on a Revis contract that made it impossible for him to hold out again.

Im guessing that they have already discussed the situation with the owner and he has to be on board with everything they do. They were ready to have him hold out last time but it was really Rex that pushed them into signing him. The team didnt want to do it but Rex saw the product on the field in the preseason- Cromartie looked lost and Wilson was atrocious- and said they couldnt win without him. Revis pulls up lame a week or two into it, Cromartie bottles up Randy Moss, and next thing you know Cro is a good cover guy again. I think Rex has a better idea of what Revis' actual value is now compared to 2010 and wont force the issue.

That said unless it screws up his reporting bonus (Im not sure what the language is regarding that) Id imagine he wont report until day 5. I believe players can hold out that long without penalty.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

That's why the Sanchez miss has been so damaging to that team. They'd put together a defense that could carry the team to the AFCCG with a stiff at QB. Now, with that defense not being as formidable, the lack of a decent QB is a real problem.

You're leaving out a critical detail. The Jets used the uncapped year as a means to try to buy a championship for consecutive years. Had there not been an uncapped year, the Jets wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs.

 

[Rob0729]

Im guessing that they have already discussed the situation with the owner and he has to be on board with everything they do. They were ready to have him hold out last time but it was really Rex that pushed them into signing him. The team didnt want to do it but Rex saw the product on the field in the preseason- Cromartie looked lost and Wilson was atrocious- and said they couldnt win without him. Revis pulls up lame a week or two into it, Cromartie bottles up Randy Moss, and next thing you know Cro is a good cover guy again. I think Rex has a better idea of what Revis' actual value is now compared to 2010 and wont force the issue.

That said unless it screws up his reporting bonus (Im not sure what the language is regarding that) Id imagine he wont report until day 5. I believe players can hold out that long without penalty.

Again you could be right. I wasn't close to the whole situation in 2010 even though it played out on Hard Knocks a bit until they did a media blackout.

But in 2010 the Jets could generate a good pass rush even if it had to be a blitz. In 2011, they couldn't sniff the QB unless the CBs made the QB hold onto the ball for 5 or more seconds. That might be why Revis might force the issue. In a way, Revis may be more needed now than 2010 depending on how the front seven plays.

You are right that players can hold out for 5 days without repercussion. So I guess we won't know until the sixth day whether Revis is serious or not.

 

[patchick]

The funny thing is, the Jets didn't give up as much as I thought I remembered them giving to trade up for Sanchez. They gave up the 17th overall and their second rounder (plus some JAGs) to move up to 5. I'd argue that being stuck paying Sanchez a top 5 pick's (pre-lockout) salary has been just as damaging as the fact that they had to give up an added second rounder to get him.

But still, it's been an unmitigated disaster. When you give up a first and a second to draft a quarterback and pay him upper-tier QB salary before he even steps on the field, then that sets your franchise back years if he doesn't at least become an above average starter. Especially when you compound the problem by continuing to trade up and starve your team of picks that have the potential, at least, to strike gold and fill in for your misses.

At the time Sanchez was drafted, there was a ton of grumbling that Mangini in Cleveland gave his buddy Tannenbaum a ridiculously sweet deal. #17, #52 and some castoffs shouldn't get you close to #5.

It's a good reminder that for all that we pick over "value" and tally up points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, the actual player selections count so, so much more. And as you say, when your draft strategy is to concentrate your firepower on a couple of key targets, you have no room for error.

 

[Deus Irae]

The funny thing is, the Jets didn't give up as much as I thought I remembered them giving to trade up for Sanchez. They gave up the 17th overall and their second rounder (plus some JAGs) to move up to 5. I'd argue that being stuck paying Sanchez a top 5 pick's (pre-lockout) salary has been just as damaging as the fact that they had to give up an added second rounder to get him.

But still, it's been an unmitigated disaster. When you give up a first and a second to draft a quarterback and pay him upper-tier QB salary before he even steps on the field, then that sets your franchise back years if he doesn't at least become an above average starter. Especially when you compound the problem by continuing to trade up and starve your team of picks that have the potential, at least, to strike gold and fill in for your misses.

Absolutely. The Patriots were able to weather Brady's injury, Welker's injury and the 2006-2009 drafts because they had made enough good personnel decisions to at least remain competitive even amongst all that.

The Jets, on the other hand, have really struggled with getting depth and with missing on those top picks, and they paid the price last year. That led the jets to going after Manning, trading for Tebow and having their GM say the following:

I spoke with Jets G.M. Mike Tannenbaum at the Combine for NBC SportsTalk Thursday and asked whether Sanchez improved enough in 2011.

“Not enough,” Tannenbaum said. “Not consistently. The great thing abut Mark is he’d be the first one to tell you that. . . .

Tannenbaum: Sanchez didn’t improve enough in 2011 | ProFootballTalk

Tannenbaum may have had a bad run in the personnel area, but he's still smart enough to know that his QB is the key to him keeping his job.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

There are very few teams that can build only through the draft. One of the Pats' best tendencies is to admit the draft is a crap-shoot, hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst. They always draft "well," when you compare grades across teams, then go back and measure guys who contribute. Their drafts "suck" to the fair-weather fans because they're looking for home runs and take the "hits" for granted. Go to any draft board and Jerod Mayo might as well be a jag, because somebody else hit on the stud receiver of the week. Whatevah. The big Pats advantage is they play the numbers games so well. They know that if you pick up Stallworth, Welker, and Moss, one or more of them is likely to produce... and they know when a guy's production drops off, combined with ahem somewhat advanced age, it might be time to let some other team roll the dice (sorry Randy.) And one big advantage the Pats have in playing that game is that the fan-base gets it by now, and you won't have a popular revolution for doing the "cold" thing that makes sense. So you can take Ocho Cinco flyers, and cut him if he can't get with the playbook... you can get rid of a familiar face without everybody boo-hooing about how he performed in 2007 and everything he did for the community, blah blah blah.

W/the draft, the Pats have consistently maximized their future value, again realizing an advantage and pressing it -- since it's hard for a draft choice to crack the roster, picks are worth more later than now (especially with the "future pick" markup.)

This season, we traded up twice in the first. They really wanted these specific guys at the point they made those deals... Hightower and Jones were, by the Pats' reckoning, the end of their respective "plateaus." They were worth it at those slots. So the question is whether they were right, of course.

Really intriguing going into the 2012 season.

 

[TruthSeeker]

At the time Sanchez was drafted, there was a ton of grumbling that Mangini in Cleveland gave his buddy Tannenbaum a ridiculously sweet deal. #17, #52 and some castoffs shouldn't get you close to #5.

It's a good reminder that for all that we pick over "value" and tally up points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, the actual player selections count so, so much more. And as you say, when your draft strategy is to concentrate your firepower on a couple of key targets, you have no room for error.

Your point would be right on if it wasn't for the salaries at the time. Top 5 picks became almost untradeable because of the huge amounts of money needed to sign the picks; hence the rookies limits in the new CBA. The trade was reasonable at that time, regardless of the value chart, because of the salary relief that Cleveland got by not having to make the 5th pick of the draft.

This impact of the rookie salary scale can be clearly seen in the 2012 draft where 7 of the top 8 picks were traded (if I remember correctly). Now the value chart really does mean something again at the top of the draft; for a number of years it was meaningless as far as the first few picks were concerned.