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First, the Colts deserve all the credit in the world for averaging 13+ PPG so far through 8 games, especially with injuries. Please do not take what follows as taking anything away from that accomplishment.
Second, both the Pats and the Colts have not played particularly difficult offensive teams so far. Consider each team. First, the Colts:
1 - Indy 14-12 over Jacksonville, #22 averaging 19.6 PPG. Indy held Jax to -7.6 PPG below their average.
2 - Indy 27-23 over Miami, #13 averaging 24.1 PPG. Miami -1.1 under their average, Indy -8.7 PPG cumulatively.
3 - Indy 31, Arizona 10. Arizona is currently #12 at 24.8 PPG, so they were -14.8 PPG under their average. Indy -23.5 PPG cumulatively over 3 games.
4 - Indy 34, Seattle 17. Seattle averages 20.9 PPG (#20 in scoring), so they were -3.9 PPG under their average. Indy -27.4 PPG through 4 games.
5 - Indy 31, Tennessee 9. Tennessee is currently #23 in scoring at 18.5 PPG, so Indy held the Titans to -9.5 PPG below their average. Indy -36.9 through 5 games.
6 - Indy 42, St. Louis 6. St. Louis currently ranks #32 at 9.6 PPG, so Indy held the Rams to -3.6 below their average. Indy -40.5 through 6 games.
7 - Indy 18, SF 14. The 49ers rank #19 averaging 21.8 PPG, so Indy held the 9ers to -7.8 below their average. Indy -48.3 through 7 games.
8 - Indy 20, Houston 17. Houston ranks #14 at 23.9 PPG, so Indy held the Texans to -6.9 PPG below their average. Indy at -55.2 through 8 games.
So through 8 games Indy has held teams to -55.2 points below their average for the season, or just under 7 PPG below their season average. Indy hasn't allowed any opponent to score above it's season average. That's clearly impressive. But Indy's opponents currently rank #12 (Arizona), 13 (Miami), 14 (Houston), 19 (SF), 20 (Seattle), 22 Jacksonville, 23 (Tennessee) and 32 (St. Louis) in scoring. That averages out to #19 overall in scoring. Obviously Indy's defense has helped keep those teams low in scoring, but one game doesn't do it by itself. Those are just not very good offensive teams.
Through 8 games the Pats haven't played a particularly challenging set of offenses, either:
1 - NE 25, Buffalo 24 (7 of those points coming on a defensive TD). The Bills are #28 in PPG 15.4, so they were +8.6 against the Pats.
2 - Jets 16, NE 9. The Jets are #18 at 22.1 PPG, so they were -4.1 PPG below their average. Through 2 games NE +4.5.
3 - NE 26, Atlanta 10. The Falcons are currently #11 at 25.2 PPG, so the Pats held the Falcons to -15.2 PPG below their average. NE -10.8 through 3 games.
4 - NE 27, Baltimore 21 (7 points coming on a defensive TD). The Ravens are currently #9 at 25.8 PPG, so the were -4.8 PPG below their average. Pats -15.6 through 4 games.
5 - Denver 20, NE 17 (OT). Denver is currently #21 at 20 PPG, so the Pats held the Broncos to their average. -15.6 through 5 games.
6 - NE 59, Tennessee 0. Tennessee is #23 at 18.5 PPG, so the Pats held the Titans to -18.5 below their average. NE -34.1 through 6 games.
7 - NE 35, TB 7. TB currently ranks -25 at 16.8 PPG, so the Pats held them to -9.8 below their average. NE -43.9 through 7 games.
8 - NE 27, Miami 17. Miami currently averages 24.1 PPG (#13), so the Pats held the Phins to -7.1 below their average. NE -51 through 8 games.
So through 8 games the Pats have held their opponents to -51 PPG below their average, or -6.4 PPG below their average. The only game in which they allowed an opponent to score above their average was the Buffalo game, which was the first game of the season and included a defensive TD. Cummulatively NE has faced the #9 (Baltimore), #11 (Atlanta), #13 (Miami), #18 (Jets), #21 (Broncos), 23 (Tennessee), 25 (Tampa Bay) and 28 (Buffalo) offense, for an average offensive position of #18.
Against the only common 2 opponents so far, NE has held both to less PPG than Indy: Tennessee (0 vs. 9) and Miami (17 vs. 23).
Clearly both defenses are playing well, and have something to do with their opponents' lack of success. But clearly both defenses have benefitted from not playing a lot of offensive juggernauts so far this season.
The second half of the season NE has to play #1 NO (37.9 PPG), #5 Indy (27.1 PPG), and #14 Houston (23.9 PPG), along with #13 Miami, #18 Jets, #22 Jax, #23 Carolina, and #28 Buffalo. Indy has to play #3 NE (28.1 PPG), #9 Baltimore (25.8 PPG), #14 Houston (23.9 PPG) in addition to #18 Jets, #21 Denver, #22 Jacksonville, #23 Tennessee and #28 Buffalo. So each team has 3 major offensive challenges ahead of it.
It will be interesting to see how both defenses do in their remaining challenges. I expect both to end up in the top 10 (possibly top 5) statistically by the end of the season, but the real question is how each defense does when faced with a top notch offense. So far Indy has passed it's toughest test against Houston and NE against Baltimore and Atlanta, but the toughest is to come for both teams.
