PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

OT: Colts and Mannings contract situation


Status
Not open for further replies.
manning to the jets would be awesome

talk about ratings and amazing games being played against our rivals and a Future HoF

The Jets were built to "Win Now". Unfortunately that was in 2008. Their time has passed and without Manning they will be lucky to stay out of the AFCE basement at 5-11, in 2012.

Manning might get them to 8-8 with his talent, but that won't even win the AFCE with the Patriots, Dolphins and even the Bills coming on. With the Dolphins he might turn in an 11-5 record and really give the Pats and Belichick a test.

I would think he is more likely to go to either the 49ers or the Cards, where he would be assured of winning the QB-less NFCW, and get an easy entry card to the Tourney.
 
Right

The point is that it's a calculated risk.

Was franchising Cassel in 2009 "risky"? Yes, who would want to pay $14 million for a backup? However, the calculation was he would be turned into value.

Teams have to spend to the cap. as such the money has to be spent. The question that has to be asked is does money spent benefit more for rebuilding for future competitive teams or for current varying shades of bad.

Resigning guys and getting players now is more important if you are in a position to win now. If you were in a position to win now, why dump your entire organization?

If given the theoritical choice what would you rather have:

Spend $26 million and turn it into future high draft picks.

Not spend the $26 million and use the money to sign some current downside players and go 4-12.

If I was Irsay, my single focus would be on getting Manning healthy and determining the trade value of a healthy Manning. This is predicated on the appearance that it has been decided to rebuild and the #1 goal of the organization should be maximum young talent to build around the new QB.

As the owner of the Colts, if you knew you could get a better than Carson Palmer deal....say 2 1sts/i 2nd.....what you pay him the $26 million?

Individual teams are under no obligation to spend any % of the cap until 2014. If the Colts paid Manning the option and then traded him the 2012 dead cap hit would be $33M. That's more than 25% of the cap for picks that won't help you this season. The Colts are already up against the cap with half a dozen UFA/RFA to be re-signed or replaced. And a couple of aging players with huge cap hits they have to grapple with and won't get much relief from if they cut them too. That $28M is also probably 2/3rds of what that team can budget at max for cash over cap or bonus money spending on say...FA. Then of course if he never does get healthy you're on the hook for $35M+ in bonus and salary for a player you paid $26M+ to not play last year or a total of $61M FOR NOTHING...

Irsay is a nut, but he's not an idiot. He's also not capable of doing anything to get Manning healthy. Beyond waiting for nerves that may not regenerate for another year or more, if ever, nobody is. He's already paid Manning almost $175M, some of which the player himself used to get stem cell injections last summer in the hopes he wouldn't have to even undergo a fusion procedure.

And at the end of the day Irsay has to field a 53 man roster come September, and hopefully one that can go better than 2-14 or get Luck killed in his rookie season. The only rationale by which Irsay pays Manning his option is if he is healthy and he's the starter for at least the next 3 seasons. During which time neither he nor Luck would be particularly happy because one would be sitting and watching the other have to deal with a talent strapped team because of their joint situation...
 
"The only reason I could surmise why Manning would move the option date back is to allow the Colts to receive some compensation for his services and trade him. However, Irsay has said he will not trade Manning, and being traded is certainly not in Manning’s best interests. He can become free to sign with any team in the NFL, rather than be limited to negotiating with one team through a trade.

From the Colts' perspective, they would certainly like to have the benefit of time to monitor the situation longer. But they are not the party in this negotiation with leverage."

Were Manning to decide to keep his legacy a warm one in the minds of his Indy fans he could agree as I have suggested previously in these threads to defer the date with the trade clause being that he gets to select the team and can opt out become a FA and receive the $28M bonus after all were the Colts to ask for too much compensation. Probably too complicated.

I agree that were I the owner I would not take the cap, money and health risk and I'd part ways with Manning wishing him good health. Onto the Luck error.

I think what you aren't taking into effect is that it would be silly for Manning to go along with a plan that requires the team he is going to to give compensation to the Colts. Why would he agree to something that does not help him at all, but strengthens the Colts and weakens his new team?
 
Individual teams are under no obligation to spend any % of the cap until 2014. If the Colts paid Manning the option and then traded him the 2012 dead cap hit would be $33M. That's more than 25% of the cap for picks that won't help you this season. The Colts are already up against the cap with half a dozen UFA/RFA to be re-signed or replaced. And a couple of aging players with huge cap hits they have to grapple with and won't get much relief from if they cut them too. That $28M is also probably 2/3rds of what that team can budget at max for cash over cap or bonus money spending on say...FA. Then of course if he never does get healthy you're on the hook for $35M+ in bonus and salary for a player you paid $26M+ to not play last year or a total of $61M FOR NOTHING...

Irsay is a nut, but he's not an idiot. He's also not capable of doing anything to get Manning healthy. Beyond waiting for nerves that may not regenerate for another year or more, if ever, nobody is. He's already paid Manning almost $175M, some of which the player himself used to get stem cell injections last summer in the hopes he wouldn't have to even undergo a fusion procedure.

And at the end of the day Irsay has to field a 53 man roster come September, and hopefully one that can go better than 2-14 or get Luck killed in his rookie season. The only rationale by which Irsay pays Manning his option is if he is healthy and he's the starter for at least the next 3 seasons. During which time neither he nor Luck would be particularly happy because one would be sitting and watching the other have to deal with a talent strapped team because of their joint situation...

1) "Healthy" Manning vs "Not healthy" Manning are two totally and completely separate issues. If he's not healthy by March, he'll get cut. That's a no brainer.

The owner should be figuring out actions if Manning is going to be healthy.

2) The cap matters if you are competing. A one or two year hit process doesn't mean squat if you are not competitive. The reality is, fans care about Super Bowls. Being bad for a period will be tolerated if there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Next year will be about Andrew Luck if drafted not competing. A 3-13 with hope season will be tolerated but a 5-11 season with no hope wouldn't.
 
I think what you aren't taking into effect is that it would be silly for Manning to go along with a plan that requires the team he is going to to give compensation to the Colts. Why would he agree to something that does not help him at all, but strengthens the Colts and weakens his new team?

The only teams that would probably value Manning are win now teams.

Look at the suspect du jour- San Fransisco. If you accept the assumption that they are favorites minus a QB, do you make the trade for 2012 run?

Why would Manning care about their long term future at 36?

What is Manning's objective? Winning another Super Bowl has a different set of suspects vs say making another $90 million.
 
This has become a tragedy for Peyton and to a lesser degree the Colts. There is no win in this situation whatsoever. Over the years Peyton has earned my respect and grudging admiration. Yes I was critical of his happy feet, the way the rules were changed in his favor, the Manning face, the overexposure on every commercial break, the accolades before they were due. But he is a baller, and plays with an intensity matched only by the very few.

And then comes the neck injury, the three surgeries and the uncertain prognosis that basically has him in limbo. I can think of few worse ways to stage the final scenes of his impressive career as this. While there is much speculation as to where he may land, since it is obviously not Lucas Field, the uncertainty of his recovery prohibits any offer from another team. The 60% state of recovery over 4/5 months is still a red flag on any contract. The lack of information on how much the nerves need to regenerate is also significant since he may have recovered from surgery and be physically fit, but if the nerves still aren't functioning properly future ability and vulnerability remain heavily in doubt.

He does deserve a lot of sympathy, though like any tragic figure he is also, to a certain extent, the author or co-author of his own undoing. His contract contains the poison pill that was meant to protect him against his employer, but now is the impediment to good business by the Colts. It is ironic that this was first presented as a contract that showed Manning was not being greedy and merely commensurate with Brady's $19m a year for 5 years. But the devil is in the details and the fact that he maximized the benefits for himself and put all the risk on the Colts has now come to light. I don't know if Brady's contract does the same, but both Condon and Manning forged a contract that ignored the likelihood of serious injury. Furthermore if I have my dates right, they did this within the period of the first surgical procedure. You can say more fool the Colts for accepting it, but the truth is that all parties have suffered because of the contract structure. and the fact that the Colts could potentially pay out over $50m (already $25m in the hole) for a player who didn't throw in 2011 and may still not do so in 2012, highlights the crisis for the organization, it is just too much to pay for too little.

I can imagine that Polian struggled mightily to balance that realization of reality against the legacy and loyalty he built with Peyton, and Irsay most probably had to remove him to ensure sustainability of his business. As I said a tragedy all round, and one caused by a possible sense of hubris and greed when it came to writing that contract. Peyton deserves better than this, he deserves a season or more to achieve his autumnal legacy. More than anything he deserves to go out, guns blazing, as a Colt, but alas that is not to be.

I close with the definition of tragedy and the wish for Peyton that it wasn't so. There are many contributors to this tragedy but he was central to the acts and decisions that led up to it.

"A drama or literary work in which the main character is brought to ruin or suffers extreme sorrow, especially as a consequence of a tragic flaw, moral weakness, or inability to cope with unfavorable circumstances".
 
1) "Healthy" Manning vs "Not healthy" Manning are two totally and completely separate issues. If he's not healthy by March, he'll get cut. That's a no brainer.

The owner should be figuring out actions if Manning is going to be healthy.

2) The cap matters if you are competing. A one or two year hit process doesn't mean squat if you are not competitive. The reality is, fans care about Super Bowls. Being bad for a period will be tolerated if there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Next year will be about Andrew Luck if drafted not competing. A 3-13 with hope season will be tolerated but a 5-11 season with no hope wouldn't.

Irsay has already told us what he will do if Manning is healthy, pay him and draft a QB - presumably Andrew Luck. He won't trade Manning for several reasons including the cash hit, the cap hit, and the PR hit. That said, on some level Irsay is hoping Manning's health will make the decision moot. And Manning now gets that, the overhaul is underway. The only dominos remaining to fall are the QB and the OC. The new HC is a former DC intent on building a Ravens like attacking defense and a run first offense. If Luck is his starting QB there will be wholesale changes on offense. No reason to attempt to replicate a somewhat simplistic yet precision execution based no huddle offense only Manning could run because it requires years to master and more expensive skill players and consistent investment in than a more traditional offense. If Manning were back they could transition somewhat as they assess Luck's development. If Luck is starting day 1, they will want him doing so within his own comfort level. Not sure their present OC will be viewed as the best man for the job. His only experience prior to understudying Moore and becoming Manning's co coordinator was in coordinating the ultra conservative offense that got Dungy canned in Tampa.

Manning pretty much knows how this chapter is going to play out because he knows in 6 weeks his health situation won't be settled. At least not to Irsay's satisfaction. He also knows now that Irsay has already decided to overhaul the entire organization irrespective of his condition since opportunity knocked. But beyond that he also knows that there will be enough interest in him from gamblers at heart who don't have the #1 pick to fill their QB void. And one or more of them will offer him a deal Irsay can't nor is he willing to accept from Irsay any longer because the situation is now different. When it's solely about the money and not draft picks and rebuilding it's easier for a new organization to roll the dice and craft a lower risk, prove it deal that pays him something for signing and something else for playing and the whole enchilada back for playing well. Players who still want to play are generally more willing to do that deal with someone they believe they can compete with and don't believe they've already proved enough to. Although the situation will have to be right for Manning because he's got other options for writing his final chapter without risking damaging already written portions of his best seller, and after this season he's already come to terms with his on field career possibly being over.

Irsay said all the right things early on. As the season progressed he started saying some things that were better left unsaid. But his need to pander to his distraught fanbase (Luck) via twitter overode his decade long pattern of pandering to his QB and GM. Polian is gone because while he fulfilled a short term goal he didn't build Irsay a sustainable model. Peyton will be gone because he doesn't allow you to build a sustainable model going forward. Never really did.

Irsay's priorities have changed over the last 3-4 years because he now has a new stadium and he has a Lombardi and he's taken Colt fans to the promised land twice. His goals now are all long range as in keeping fannies in those seats over the long haul and achieved by
building a sustainable model that will compete consistently even if the QB goes down and contend when he doesn't. Although good 'Luck" with that when you start out purportedly in a new direction by essentially heading down the same path.
 
Polian put too much stock into Manning which is not how you build a team and is the reason he is fired. Why does the media never address that? They chalk it up to having 1 bad year.
 
Polian put too much stock into Manning which is not how you build a team and is the reason he is fired. Why does the media never address that? They chalk it up to having 1 bad year.

Because few of them actually DO serious analysis. They go with what fits the narrative. They're in the business of writing and speaking to play to the audience. Only in straggly isolated pockets with a whole different culture do home team hating contrarians thrive, e.g. the poisonous Red Sox culture of NE. Remember article after article (falsely) claiming discord between Brady and Kraft in Tom's contract season? But in Peyton's protracted contract dance nary a word.
 
OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

[Since P. Manning and the Colts have been the Patriots biggest rival for the last decade (i.e., biggest "serious" rival, unlike the Jets who just make a lot of noise), I don't really think this is all that "OT."]

There seems to be a lot of confusion and disinformation about Peyton's contact situation (at least I was confused, maybe you weren't). The link below is to an article and a related article that describe what is going on in very clear terms.

The bottom line is that Condon and Manning crafted a very clever contract that makes it, for all practical purposes, impossible for the Colts to trade Manning. Peyton holds all the cards.

Peyton Predicament: Part 2 | National Football Post
 
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

It is hard to believe Irsay cornered himself like this.


Conclusion is Colts must release him.

Colts $28 million option due March 8th


CBA prevents renegotiations of contracts following the last regular season game of the League Year within which the date is in. 2012 League Year and trading period begin on March 13th

Colts must exercise the option to keep Manning – or not – in a one month period between February 7th and March 8th.


uncertain neck condition
Luck, available for half the price
Manning + Luck = $50 million for 2012
Colts pay him, trade him: $26 million cap hit for 2012
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

It is hard to believe Irsay cornered himself like this.

Not really. Colts had franchised tagged Peyton. They said they wanted him to retire as a Colt. Peyton wanted to make sure he was never traded and if he left Indy he would be free to choose what team.

Being the Colts were looking to have Peyton be their QB for the life and the contract and weren't intested in signing him just to trade him, they willing agreed to terms that made trading him impossible.
 
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

It is hard to believe Irsay cornered himself like this.


Conclusion is Colts must release him.

Colts $28 million option due March 8th


CBA prevents renegotiations of contracts following the last regular season game of the League Year within which the date is in. 2012 League Year and trading period begin on March 13th

Colts must exercise the option to keep Manning – or not – in a one month period between February 7th and March 8th.


uncertain neck condition
Luck, available for half the price
Manning + Luck = $50 million for 2012
Colts pay him, trade him: $26 million cap hit for 2012

If they go full rebuild mode, is the last option unfeasible?
 
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

If they go full rebuild mode, is the last option unfeasible?

I would think a trade is worth considering.

Brandt takes irsay at his word that trading him is not an option,
and does not really examine that.
He does reference how much the Raiders gave up for Palmer.

Problem is he has to make a decision on the cash before he can even get feedback on the offers. officially, anyway.
All this chatter has to have generated some curiosity, private conversations?
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

It's really much more simple than it has been made out to be. Basically the Colts have to pay him $28 million in March or cut him. Yes, technically speaking, there are other possibilities. But realistically, it's simply Indy's choice to pay him or cut him.

And right now all the writing on the wall seems to suggest they'll cut him.

(Obviously, all of the above assumes Manning is not willing to restructure his contact. Obviously, if he is willing to restructure, then all the talk of what the currect contract says goes out the window.)
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

Not really. Colts had franchised tagged Peyton. They said they wanted him to retire as a Colt. Peyton wanted to make sure he was never traded and if he left Indy he would be free to choose what team.

Being the Colts were looking to have Peyton be their QB for the life and the contract and weren't intested in signing him just to trade him, they willing agreed to terms that made trading him impossible.

I don't think it was that benign.

I think Polian miscalculated and that that's the main reason he was fired. I don't think there's any way at all that Irsay wanted to lose Peyton without getting something for him. Polian on the other hand must have assumed that Manning's ability to play would be clear one way or the other, which doesn't look like will be the case by March 8th.

Now, the Colts are left with having to decide whether to pay a minimum of $28 million to a guy who might not be able to play (while carrying an expensive QB gamble in Luck or Griffin) or watching that guy walk without any compensation and maybe helping a conference rival (ugh, like the Jets) get to the Super Bowl before they do again.

That would not go over well with their supporters, whose taxes, BTW, are paying off the huge Bond that built Lucas Oil Stadium. That fan-base is also still hurting from the Colts' not going for a perfect season two years ago and is no doubt seething that the Patriots will be the "home" team in what they thought was going to be "their" Super Bowl.

I really don't think this was Plan A or Plan B.
 
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

Amazing contract

Wonder what he'll do. I mean really he has enough money, and could still go to a contender and receive a top notch salary. Imagine if he went to the 49ers, or the Broncos.
 
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

I would think a trade is worth considering.

Brandt takes irsay at his word that trading him is not an option,
and does not really examine that.
He does reference how much the Raiders gave up for Palmer.

Problem is he has to make a decision on the cash before he can even get feedback on the offers. officially, anyway.
All this chatter has to have generated some curiosity, private conversations?

Yeah, but the Colts would be negotiating from a position of weakness. Any trading partner would know that the Colts were bending over and only wondering how much it would hurt.

They'd be out the $34 million and, on top of that, have to take a lot less than Manning is worth! That's why Brandt concludes that Irsay will just bite the bullet and let Peyton go. That $34 million is HIS money out of HIS pocket. I'd imagine that he has other uses for it...
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

I don't think it was that benign.

Polian on the other hand must have assumed that Manning's ability to play would be clear one way or the other, which doesn't look like will be the case by March 8th.

.

When the Colts signed the contract they didn't know Manning was injured or would be out this season.

With 20-20 hindsight it was a bad contract for the Colts, at the time it was win-win.
 
Re: OT: Peyton Manning Contract Explanation

Amazing contract

Wonder what he'll do. I mean really he has enough money, and could still go to a contender and receive a top notch salary. Imagine if he went to the 49ers, or the Broncos.

Or another team that thinks its "A Quarterback away from the Super Bowl." Let's see...are there any teams like that in the AFC East...like the Jets and maybe the Dolphins. The only good thing on that score is that we can probably rely on Jerry Jones or Dan Snyder to do something stupid and keep him out of the Division.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


MORSE: Patriots QB Drake Maye Analysis and What to Expect in Round 2 and 3
Five Patriots/NFL Thoughts Following Night One of the 2024 NFL Draft
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/26: News and Notes
TRANSCRIPT: Patriots QB Drake Maye Conference Call
Patriots Now Have to Get to Work After Taking Maye
TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo After Patriots Take Drake Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/25: News and Notes
Patriots Kraft ‘Involved’ In Decision Making?  Zolak Says That’s Not the Case
MORSE: Final First Round Patriots Mock Draft
Slow Starts: Stark Contrast as Patriots Ponder Which Top QB To Draft
Back
Top