Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by rlcarr, Jan 26, 2012.
Interesting (as always) piece from Brandt:
Peyton Predicament: Part 2 | National Football Post
Not to crow but this has been my take on the entire situation (parts 1 and 2) for the last 3 months. Once the terms of the contract were released, it was just a common sense calculation and conclusion, yet the media in general and even Brandt at times have just added needless confusion to the situation by engaging in hairbrained speculation that ignored the simple facts spelled out in these two pieces. Even now Brandt addresses the lingering issue of a trade (of a guy who had his agent craft a defacto no trade clause) as if there is an icebergs chance in hell Manning would decide he wants to get something for the team that is pre-emptively moving on (or walking away) from him whether or not he can still play at a high level, let alone from a team he would be trying to join forces with to prove them wrong by contending for the next 3-4 years during which he has always intended to play if healthy and preferably surrounded by deeper talent...
His recent comments (about the Colts facility he pined for during the lockout no longer being at atmosphere condusive to rehabbing) paint the picture of a guy who is increasingly frustrated not just with his own medical condition but with what remains of the organization he took to two superbowls and dominated a division and made relevant enough to got a new stadium deal for. And that is frankly human nature and therefore to have been anticipated...
I've said all along, Manning will retire if he cannot play at a high level and if he can he will play where he chooses (although those choices will be limited for practical reasons). Remaining in Indy was his first choice, although aside from legacy it's now debatable if they are even among the contenders. Helping them transition into the Andrew Luck era won't be on his radar going forward, if it ever was.
Irsay better hope he can catch lightening in a bottle in back to back attempts. The odds are against it.
Manning won't land in the AFCE where his career started, either, because he's going to be looking for the same thing albeit in a smaller window than he had before because that's all the time he has left. And depending on how motivated and PO'd he is, it won't be all about the $$$ either. He won't be looking for a challenge, he'll be looking for vindication. My guess is the best scenario for him would emerge out of the NFCW. Irsay's worst nightmare is it emerging out of the AFCS.
Between Manning's contract and Bob Sanders' contract, has any team paid more money to players for little or no production than the Colts? Sanders got paid the most money for a safety at the time when he re-signed with the Colts and then went on to play like 8 games in the three years of the deal he collected. Manning, if cut, will walk away with $26.4 million for the 2011 (signing bonus and base salary) without playing a single play for his current contract.
I think Manning would land back South in Tennessee for 2 reasons.
1. He is loved in Indy, but just as much where he went to school.
2. To compete vs the Colts.
Manning is poed. Polian kicked to the curb. Getting jerked around by the winning organization that he created. The Indy Colts were a joke before he arrived. Sure he took all the money he could, but wouldnt you do the same if you were as good as him? Look at him now.
And there were more of them. One of my favorites was Corey Simon who walked away with $13M and played in a handful of games in his first season and then nearly caused Polian to stroke out when he supposedly developed an arthritic condition of some sort in camp the following season... The best part was how despite his aversion to FA Polian was painted by the media as a genius for being in position to jump on that turd when the Eagles withdrew his tag in July because they realized he was a slacker. Legends aren't always born, they are often media inventions. If Manning had come out of college early or not been as anal and driven as he was, Polian would have lasted about 4 years in Indy. And if we'd extended Adam and Deion back in 2006...it's debatable he'd have ever won a ring anywhere.
"The only reason I could surmise why Manning would move the option date back is to allow the Colts to receive some compensation for his services and trade him. However, Irsay has said he will not trade Manning, and being traded is certainly not in Manningâ€™s best interests. He can become free to sign with any team in the NFL, rather than be limited to negotiating with one team through a trade.
From the Colts' perspective, they would certainly like to have the benefit of time to monitor the situation longer. But they are not the party in this negotiation with leverage."
Were Manning to decide to keep his legacy a warm one in the minds of his Indy fans he could agree as I have suggested previously in these threads to defer the date with the trade clause being that he gets to select the team and can opt out become a FA and receive the $28M bonus after all were the Colts to ask for too much compensation. Probably too complicated.
I agree that were I the owner I would not take the cap, money and health risk and I'd part ways with Manning wishing him good health. Onto the Luck error.
just curious, why can't I read the entire article from the link?
As for your trade scenario, beyond complicated it just flies in the face of common sense. It always did, but now Manning is getting increasingly testy. He doesn't do change well, anal types seldom do. If he has to face it it might as well be on a better positioned team. And why would he do a solid for the team who walked away from him and in the process hamper the team that eagerly scooped him like a mutha...
There is also the matter of the NFLPA. They would grieve any attempt to characterize a simple date change in this instance as not being substantial change, since it would be totally leverage altering. He essentially has a no trade clause in the form of an option clause with an exercise date prior to the start of the new year and backed up by a non-exercise fee, and for those who come after him the union would be remiss to allow someone who can walk walk away from essentially unguaranteed contracts held by 95% of their constituents to be allowed to emotionally maneuver a superstar into backing down when he has one of league owners over the proverbial barrel. You never surrender FA for nothing tangible.
He could move the date back based on his treatment schedule. If he's being treated by Colt's medical, I highly doubt, they would continue if he's been cut.
If you are close in your rehab, who would want to change doctors?
The real question comes down to what exactly is Manning's objective here.
Time away from the family?
My best guess is to win another Super Bowl. Is that going to be feasible in Indy? What team would he think has that ability? Does that team actually think Manning can satisfy their need?
I agree that it's a contrived scenario that relies on some weird Manning legacy motive.
manning to the jets would be awesome
talk about ratings and amazing games being played against our rivals and a Future HoF
The comedy of Payaton and Fat Rex trying to co-exist would be pure gold.
yeah that alone would be the only reason why i think it would never happen but then again i never though Drew Bledsoe would be replaced.
Can the Jets even afford Manning?
I doubt he's gonna take a pay cut. If he's willing to do so, he could end up anywhere. But I don't think he's gonna be that effective. He was already declining before he was out. Then he's gonna have to adjust to the speed of the game again, then he's already got happy feet, imagine how happy they'll be, with his questionable neck, when he's about to get sacked and have to land backwards. I think it's about time Manning called it a career.
Have the Saints offered Brees a new deal, now he's a QB I'm really concerned with landing in the AFCE.
Peyton should just go to the Seahawks. They are a small market, so he won't be in the spotlight (Peyton with Rex and the goons, I just could never see it).
They have a beast of a RB, decent WR core (Rice, Baldwin, Tate), and a pretty good, young defense.
The Saints won't let Brees leave. They'll franchise him if they have to.
Based on the article, it appears that the real expense is the option bonus. If the Jets only have to pay the salary, it's affordable.
Irsay has to figure out:
What Manning wants
What Irsay wants
I don't agree that Manning has all the leverage. The reality for 2012 is
Teams have to spend to 95% of the cap.
The cap is only relavent to teams competing. Short term hits mean little if it's the difference between 4-12 and 2-14.
$26 million that you have to spend anyway is not that much if it means the highly valued commodity can translate into valuable picks.
Irsay just spent over $20 million for nothing.
But if the Colts pay him and trade him the entire $26 million hits cap year 2012. No pro-rating (OK unless Goodell inserted another hidden "Get out of Cap Jail Free" card in the CBA like he did for his Jets) They won't be able to re-sign their D players and won't be a factor in FA.
The point is that it's a calculated risk.
Was franchising Cassel in 2009 "risky"? Yes, who would want to pay $14 million for a backup? However, the calculation was he would be turned into value.
Teams have to spend to the cap. as such the money has to be spent. The question that has to be asked is does money spent benefit more for rebuilding for future competitive teams or for current varying shades of bad.
Resigning guys and getting players now is more important if you are in a position to win now. If you were in a position to win now, why dump your entire organization?
If given the theoritical choice what would you rather have:
Spend $26 million and turn it into future high draft picks.
Not spend the $26 million and use the money to sign some current downside players and go 4-12.
If I was Irsay, my single focus would be on getting Manning healthy and determining the trade value of a healthy Manning. This is predicated on the appearance that it has been decided to rebuild and the #1 goal of the organization should be maximum young talent to build around the new QB.
As the owner of the Colts, if you knew you could get a better than Carson Palmer deal....say 2 1sts/i 2nd.....what you pay him the $26 million?
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