Official Patriots/Falcons Post Game Thread

[Brady to Brown]

It wasn't a bad move. It was a calculated risk with a high probability of success. This is what you and Wolfpack don't understand. Belichick purposely goes through situations like this during the week so the team is prepared for them. If you think he doesn't then you've never read ANYTHING about this team and you are just as ignorant as Wolfpack.

Ya and if it didn't work and the Falcons get the ball on the Pats 25?

I am sure you would still feel the same way The entire game could have changed if that play does not work.

Bad move. And he will never do it again. (unless they are down big)

And as long as we are calling names the fact that you think this was a good idea makes you the biggest Homer on the board.

 

[BelichickFan]

Ya and if it didn't work and the Falcons get the ball on the Pats 25?

I wanted them to go for it but was stunned that they did. It was time to man up and gain a yard. With all due respect to our team, it was time to stop ****yfooting around this season and start converting some short yardage runs.

 

[maverick4]

Ya and if it didn't work and the Falcons get the ball on the Pats 25?
I am sure you would still feel the same way The entire game could have changed if that play does not work.
Bad move. And he will never do it again. (unless they are down big)
And as long as we are calling names the fact that you think this was a good idea makes you the biggest Homer on the board.

Just ignore his name-calling, it's an unfortunate childish tactic he's been using for years the moment anyone disagrees with him.

As for the BALLSY 4th down call on our own 25, Belichick admitted in the post game that it wasn't the smartest play and he would have gotten killed if it didn't work.

 

[letekro]

Ya and if it didn't work and the Falcons get the ball on the Pats 25?

I am sure you would still feel the same way The entire game could have changed if that play does not work.

Bad move. And he will never do it again. (unless they are down big)

And as long as we are calling names the fact that you think this was a good idea makes you the biggest Homer on the board.

1. If he did and it paid off BIG, why wouldn't he do it again??
2. So let's say it didn't work, and, worst case scenario, they score and we're down 17-16 with a quarter to go. That's the WORST case scenario. But the two scenarios were not equal in probability, which is the concept which you are apparently failing to grasp. There was probably a 90% chance of converting the 4th and inches, which led to us putting the game away, while there was only a 10% chance of being stopped. But the chances of the bad outcome (touchdown) are even less than 10%, because we may have stopped them. So, roughly, we had a 90% chance of taking control of the game, a 5% chance of giving up a FG and a 5% chance of falling behind by 1 with a quarter to play. This is what is called a CALCULATED risk, and it may have turned the season around.

 

[maverick4]

I wanted them to go for it but was stunned that they did. It was time to man up and gain a yard. With all due respect to our team, it was time to stop ****yfooting around this season and start converting some short yardage runs.

These kind of ballsy calls can have disproportionate sway in a win/loss. You convert it, the opposing defense and entire team are demoralized and your team gets a huge boost of confidence. You lose the conversion, and you look like a moron and give the opponent a short field and a huge momentum swing.

 

[BelichickFan]

These kind of ballsy calls can have disproportionate sway in a win/loss. You convert it, the opposing defense and entire team are demoralized and your team gets a huge boost of confidence. You lose the conversion, and you look like a moron and give the opponent a short field and a huge momentum swing.

Indeed. A miss there and the Falcons could very easily pop it into the end zone and grab all the momentum. It was the craziest 4th down call I remember since we went against Indy in the playoffs around our own 40 on the opening drive.

 

[maverick4]

There was probably a 90% chance of converting the 4th and inches, which led to us putting the game away, while there was only a 10% chance of being stopped. But the chances of the bad outcome (touchdown) are even less than 10%, because we may have stopped them. So, roughly, we had a 90% chance of taking control of the game, a 5% chance of giving up a FG and a 5% chance of falling behind by 1 with a quarter to play. This is what is called a CALCULATED risk, and it may have turned the season around.

Everyone is happy it actually worked, but don't actually try to rationalize it as a smart move with statistics. Under no circumstance is it a smart move, with the odds or overall payoffs not on your side by going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter on your own 25 yard line. Even Belichick admitted it wasn't a smart call if it didn't work.

 

[letekro]

Indeed. A miss there and the Falcons could very easily pop it into the end zone and grab all the momentum. It was the craziest 4th down call I remember since we went against Indy in the playoffs around our own 40 on the opening drive.

Yeah, but that Indy call was out of desperation. BB was paranoid about not being able to stop Manning. This was different. This was: here's our opportunity to win the game, and we're gonna seize it.

 

[letekro]

Everyone is happy it actually worked, but don't actually try to rationalize it as a smart move with statistics. Under no circumstance is it a smart move, with the odds or overall payoffs on your side by going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter on your own 25 yard line. Even Belichick admitted it wasn't a smart call if it didn't work.

LMAO! "Don't base your opinions on statistics, just make blanket statements with no supporting data!" I like your attitude, palooka. You should be a sports journalist!

Btw, Belichick was being coy with the media.

 

[JFK]

Going for it on our 25 showed confidence in the D. It had nothing to do with confidence in the offense cos they offense was very inconsistent. It was done to boost the offense psychologically. They were just not converting and perhaps they needed one more down to get into a groove.
I would have gone for it too.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Ya and if it didn't work and the Falcons get the ball on the Pats 25?

I am sure you would still feel the same way The entire game could have changed if that play does not work.

Bad move. And he will never do it again. (unless they are down big)

And as long as we are calling names the fact that you think this was a good idea makes you the biggest Homer on the board.

I loved the call. Yes, there's a risk, but EVERYTHING in football has a risk. Every pass could be an interception. Every run could be a fumble. But it was a calculated risk, and the odds were overwhelmingly in his favour.

If you look at it statistically, the benefits of going for it outweigh the negatives when it fails. We even saw the Falcons go for it a few times on 4th down (I remember at least one drive where they picked it up and scored a TD). But forget statistics and numbers and logic. BB challenged the players, and the players responded. They got the yard. They got a bunch more. They would score on the drive, and then they would add a TD later on. Up to that point, it was a close game. From that point on, the Pats rolled.

I'd feel the same way if it failed. It was the right thing to do. The "easy" thing to do in that scenario is punt. Then if they lose, it's the fault of the players. But if they went for it and failed, everyone would blame the coach. He was not afraid of the criticism. He was not afraid of what the media might say. He was only focused on how to help his team win the game.

It was a gutsy call and the right call.

 

[maverick4]

LMAO! "Don't base your opinions on statistics, just make blanket statements with no supporting data!".

Didn't realize I was wasting my time with an obvious troll/moron. This CLOWN MAKES UP stats/percentages to somehow justify why it's a positive overall pay off to go for it on 4th down on your own 25 yard line in the 3rd quarter. And he is too lazy to actually figure out the real payoffs.

The payoff for converting a 4th down on your own 25, is a 1st down still deep in your own territory (no chance for points). The penalty is severe, putting the opponent pretty much in your own red zone for an easy FG, and a decent chance for a touch down. You could make it formal by adding in the various percentages of likelihood to figure out the real payoff. Either way, in NO way is it a smart move justified by any sort of intellectual exercise.

Letekro = a genius (on par with Mike Tice) somehow rationalizing that giving up 7 points for a potential 1st down deep in your own territory, isn't a big deal.

 

[maverick4]

If you look at it statistically, the benefits of going for it outweigh the negatives when it fails.

It was a gutsy call and the right call.

I agree it was gutsy and I liked the attitude/message he was sending to his own team. I also agree with you that you can't justify the move with stats, payoff calculations, or any intellectual exercise. Only brain-challenged posters like letekro cling to bizarre beliefs that the move was somehow justified by reason.

 

[Wolfpack]

In 10 years, everyone will be doing this. Teams will start bringing in statisticians like in baseball, and they will see that punting, in a lot of 4th down situations, is actually a bad call.

I will bet we don't see it happen again a single time the rest of the season from any team so deep in their own end (including the Patriots) if I can be allowed two exceptions:

1) Obviously, teams that are losing late are in a different situation, and

2) A gadget play like a fake punt doesn't count.

Anyone want to take me up on the gentleman's bet?

 

[BionicPatriot]

Instead of barking back and forth about the right/wrong call, lets give it up for the team.

That to me is a sign of great execution, not a call. It was up to the team's performance to suggest wether it was good or bad. I honestly think BB wanted to put toughness thats been missing in the offense. What are they going to do in a must win game? Dont you want them to be able to handle tough situations? If they HAD to convert, I'm glad Bill will have the troops ready when the moment calls.

But to say it's because he has no confidence in the D is just ******* stupid. They did jack against the D pretty much and you think BB was scared today? I'm not saying we have a great D, but if it sucked, we wouldn't have won this game putting up non stop FGs. The reason it turned into a 16 point cushion was because the defense was holding them down all day waiting for the offense to deliver the heavy blows. Once they did, it became and 2 score game.

 

[BionicPatriot]

I will bet we don't see it happen again a single time the rest of the season from any team so deep in their own end (including the Patriots) if I can be allowed two exceptions:

1) Obviously, teams that are losing late are in a different situation, and

2) A gadget play like a fake punt doesn't count.

Anyone want to take me up on the gentleman's bet?

Me. If the defense is stopping any offense like they were today, and the offense needs a kick in the ass, BB is one to call for it.

 

[Patspsycho]

Ya and if it didn't work and the Falcons get the ball on the Pats 25?

I am sure you would still feel the same way The entire game could have changed if that play does not work.

Bad move. And he will never do it again. (unless they are down big)

And as long as we are calling names the fact that you think this was a good idea makes you the biggest Homer on the board.

You talk about taking the high road, but now you're calling other people names?

Talk about hypocrisy!

 

[JFK]

Everyone is happy it actually worked, but don't actually try to rationalize it as a smart move with statistics. Under no circumstance is it a smart move, with the odds or overall payoffs not on your side by going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter on your own 25 yard line. Even Belichick admitted it wasn't a smart call if it didn't work.

I won't really call it a smart move because a W didn't depend on that play but it wasn't a bad call. The negatives outweighed the positives but the offense needed that boost. Happy it worked out. If it didn't work out, I would have felt it wasn't an o.k call that didn't work out.

 

[letekro]

Didn't realize I was wasting my time with an obvious troll/moron. This CLOWN MAKES UP stats/percentages to somehow justify why it's a positive overall pay off to go for it on 4th down on your own 25 yard line in the 3rd quarter, then he is too lazy to actually figure out the real payoffs.

The payoff for converting a 4th down on your own 25, is a 1st down still deep in your own territory. The penalty is severe, putting the opponent pretty much in your own red zone for an easy FG, and a decent chance for a touch down. You could make it formal by adding in the various percentages of likelihood to figure out the real payoff. Either way, in NO way is it a smart move justified by any sort of intellectual exercise.

Letekro = a genius (on par with Mike Tice) somehow rationalizing that giving up 7 points for a potential 1st down deep in your own territory, isn't a big deal.

Nope, you still don't get it. You're only looking at the penalty, when decision makers have to look at the penalty MULTIPLIED by the probability (stated as a fraction). To say that something is ALWAYS a bad idea becaues the penalty is high is leaving out the probability element, which is equally as important. I obviously don't know the exact percentages, but I think the ones I chose are fairly realistic. And, using those, I don't think you can say it was absolutely a bad call. Maybe you will understand this, or maybe you will continue to call me names, but from my perspective it's all the same because you are going on ignore.

 

[Wolfpack]

Everyone is happy it actually worked, but don't actually try to rationalize it as a smart move with statistics. Under no circumstance is it a smart move, with the odds or overall payoffs not on your side by going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter on your own 25 yard line. Even Belichick admitted it wasn't a smart call if it didn't work.

+1.

Let me relate a little story... I was once in Foxwoods playing Blackjack and some clueless girl at the table had a hard-18 against the dealer's 6. She says she wants to hit, and everyone (including the dealer) is trying to talk her out of it. But she won't listen to them so she hits. Sure enough, she gets a 3 and gives everyone at the table a big fat "I told you so."

So what's the moral of the story? Just because something worked doesn't mean it wasn't a stupid thing to do, and it doesn't mean you'll see other people doing the same thing.