Not featuring Gronk more was the biggest mistake throughout the whole first part of the season. After Moss was traded, there was no excuse not to feature him in the passing game anymore. We needed his abilities in that area. I suspect that he and Hernandez will be a huge part of the game plan on Monday night. And, even though Welker will be covered by Revis, I suspect that he'll be a big part of the game plan as well. If they're rolling Revis toward Welker and Cromartie toward Branch, then this absolutely, positively has to be a time for Tate to have a break out game.
Do you think we'll feature the running game like we did with the Steelers? Pretty much run the ball just enough to both be effective and to make it so that the Jets can't just pin their ears back and come after the pass.
Hernandez wasn't being featured over Gronkowski in the early part of the season on a whim, or out of any general preference of featuring one player over the other, but rather on the basis of which was a better matchup vs. the opposing defense's scheme.
At least coming out of camp, the feeling was that Hernandez, whose faster, has more quick-twitch athleticism and can run more wideout-like routes was better at getting himself open against man coverage, overpowering wideouts and out-juking and out-running safeties and LBs. Gronkowski, meanwhile, had a better feeling for attacking the soft spots in zones, and then the power to muscle through swarming defenders for YAC. Hernandez is much better in the open field.
One of the reasons that Hernandez shone early, while Gronkowski has come on of late is that teams were more prone to play man on Moss at the line, with a dedicated safety over the top. Since Moss' absence, teams have changed the way they've tried to attack us. Now, the Jets will of course be trying to mix things up against the Pats, but given that their two top corner's are much better suited for man, you have to think they'll lean toward playing to their strengths.
While the Jets certainly could try to lock down Welker with Revis, I think this ultimately would work in the Pats' favor. Revis' is the league's best turn-and-run or bump-and-run corner, and this particular talent is wasted on a receiver like Welker, who seldom runs in any direction long enough for a corner to run step-for-step with him. Revis is also not nearly as accustomed to covering through traffic. It's possible that Revis might not be able to shut down what Welker does as thoroughly as he can more traditional wideouts. That leaves the Jets with the choice of either staying in base, and putting Cromartie on Branch - again, not playing to Cromartie's strength of pursuit speed - and leaving a safety on Hernandez, which would be a mismatch that seriously favored the Pats, IMO, or, if the Jets stay in a sub package, they could use Cromartie to cover Hernandez or Tate, which would be a better matchup for him, but then have to leave their nickelback on Branch, which favors the Pats.
Rather, I think we'll see the Jets leave Revis on the outside, vs. Branch for the most part, occasionally Tate if the Pats start moving receivers around, and on Welker only on the occasions when he lines up in a traditional flanker or end position. Cromartie could cover Tate on the outside when he's in, or man up against Hernandez, whose usually split out, or be part of a double-team on Welker, primarily responsible with getting a solid jam on Welker at the line. When Cromartie's one on one with Tate or Hernandez, Welker would be doubled by the nickel corner and a LB or safety, and if Cromartie is part of the welker double-teaming, than the Jets should probably devote a LB and safety to Hernandez.
The down-side with devoting a DB and LB each to Hernandez and Welker is that, even assuming Revis shuts Branch down, guarding against passes to RBs out of the backfield would be relegated to a 2nd priority -- though the Jets do have the LBs to recover and prevent big gains.
Another X-factor to consider is that Fred Taylor, who was active but didn't play on Thanksgiving, was present at practice yesterday, and might be ready for action on Monday vs. the Jets. As solid as BJGE has been for the Pats, a healthy Taylor would add an extra dimension of threat to the Pats' running game, and complicate things for the Jets, as they don't have any film on how he fits into the Pats' post-Moss new-look offense.
