Nolan Nawrocki Draft Value Chart

[Box_O_Rocks]

Mayock's evaluation above actually makes pick #23 even more enticing for teams lacking a 2009 first (Chicago, Carolina, Dallas). Just so happens that I think those 3 teams have a great chance of underperforming in 2009.

Chicago has no first in 2010. I'll agree with Carolina for the moment, Dallas just cleared the air, they are more likely to bounce back.

 

[maverick4]

Nolan Nawrocki at PFW has put out his first draft value chart:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

He lists prospects by round projected and within the round by early (A), middle (B) and late (C). Some of his interesting picks:

- BJ Raji as a mid-1st rounder
- William Beatty as a late 2nd round pick (after Jamon Meredith)
- Connor Barwin as a mid 3rd round, after Lawrence Sidbury and Paul Kruger (mid 2nd round picks)
- Jarren Gilbert as a mid 3rd round pick
- Brian Robiskie as a late 1st round pick and Hakeem Nicks as a mid 2nd round pick
- Mohammed Massaquoi and Louis Murphy as 2nd round WRs
- Jason Williams as a late 5th round pick
- Larry English as a mid 2nd round pick
- Sean Smith as an early 3rd round pick
- James Casey as a late 3rd round pick

I would generally agree with this, especially English going before Connor Binkie. I think Cushing, Muauluga, and Laurainitis are all going to be gone before our second pick.

I hope that all those teams who missed out on Cassel and Cutler end up using high picks on this year's QB dud class.

 

[mayoclinic]

As everyone who reads this board probably knows, I am a big Connor Barwin fan. I have tried to back up my views with analysis and have tried to be impartial about what other people think, while obviously being very partial myself.

With that in mind, I came across this tidbit from Nawrocki in a questions/answers column. As previously noted in his thread, Nawrocki rates Barwin as a mid 3rd round pick.

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

The relevant section is in response to an Atlanta fan who suggests that Barwin would be good value at 24, and ideally proposes that Atlanta trade back to 29 with the Giants (moving up for Hakeem Nicks, much as I have suggested with the #23 pick) and take Barwin at #29. Nawrocki's response:

"As for Connor Barwin being worth a first-round pick, I could not disagree more. Teams can realistically consider selecting developmental projects in the late third round but typically hope to find them in the fourth and beyond. Barwin’s exceptional workout numbers definitely add to his value, but he’s only a one-year starter at defensive end with a very limited set of pass-rush moves. He is as green as grass, and the team that drafts him will be betting on the come to a great degree. The expectations created by selecting him in the first round could doom him to fail. Mike Mamula’s name gets thrown out too much, but if there were ever a classic example of Mamula, it may be Barwin, whose tape grades out more like a fifth-rounder than a first-rounder. I have not spoken with a single NFL team that has Barwin postured more highly than the third round on its draft board, not that it means some do not have him there — I just have not encountered any through very regular conversations. The media and general public may be infatuated with his workout results. NFL teams are more focused on how he played on tape."

I am posting this here not to renew the "is Connor Barwin overrated" kind of threads, which have been hashed to death, but merely to be objective in citing equally people who favor or disfavor Barwin. I personally respect Nawrocki but disagree intensely with him on this issue, and will leave it at that. I don't know what teams he has personally spoken with, or how reliable his sources are, but the amount of draft visit interest in Barwin alone suggests that there is more interest in him than a 3rd round pick would rate.

I apologize to the moderators if I am unintentionally restarting a pissing contest.

 

[mgteich]

1) Many teams worked out Barwin as a TE, as the patriots did. I know, the LB coach was sick so they sent the TE coach.

2) Barwin is clearly a difficult player to evaluate, both in realtion to a team's own needs and in terms of where he might be draft by others.

3) Even if Barwin were a 2nd round talent as an OLB and a 2nd round talent as a TE, he would draw lots of interest and visits.

4) Some teams and posters are willing (even anxious) to draft players with the above profile; some are more wary.

As everyone who reads this board probably knows, I am a big Connor Barwin fan. I have tried to back up my views with analysis and have tried to be impartial about what other people think, while obviously being very partial myself.

With that in mind, I came across this tidbit from Nawrocki in a questions/answers column. As previously noted in his thread, Nawrocki rates Barwin as a mid 3rd round pick.

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

The relevant section is in response to an Atlanta fan who suggests that Barwin would be good value at 24, and ideally proposes that Atlanta trade back to 29 with the Giants (moving up for Hakeem Nicks, much as I have suggested with the #23 pick) and take Barwin at #29. Nawrocki's response:

"As for Connor Barwin being worth a first-round pick, I could not disagree more. Teams can realistically consider selecting developmental projects in the late third round but typically hope to find them in the fourth and beyond. Barwin’s exceptional workout numbers definitely add to his value, but he’s only a one-year starter at defensive end with a very limited set of pass-rush moves. He is as green as grass, and the team that drafts him will be betting on the come to a great degree. The expectations created by selecting him in the first round could doom him to fail. Mike Mamula’s name gets thrown out too much, but if there were ever a classic example of Mamula, it may be Barwin, whose tape grades out more like a fifth-rounder than a first-rounder. I have not spoken with a single NFL team that has Barwin postured more highly than the third round on its draft board, not that it means some do not have him there — I just have not encountered any through very regular conversations. The media and general public may be infatuated with his workout results. NFL teams are more focused on how he played on tape."

I am posting this here not to renew the "is Connor Barwin overrated" kind of threads, which have been hashed to death, but merely to be objective in citing equally people who favor or disfavor Barwin. I personally respect Nawrocki but disagree intensely with him on this issue, and will leave it at that. I don't know what teams he has personally spoken with, or how reliable his sources are, but the amount of draft visit interest in Barwin alone suggests that there is more interest in him than a 3rd round pick would rate.

I apologize to the moderators if I am unintentionally restarting a pissing contest.

 

[ayjackson]

The ranking looks like a January 10th ranking of players. As though he has put zero stock in any of the listed players' workouts, bowl games, and combine, and only based his observations on the players' seasons with their respective teams.

 

[dryheat44]

The ranking looks like a January 10th ranking of players. As though he has put zero stock in any of the listed players' workouts, bowl games, and combine, and only based his observations on the players' seasons with their respective teams.

And I'd be OK with that. But I don't think that's true. If it were, Clay Matthews would have a 5th round grade, mas o menos.

 

[BradyManny]

Again, when it comes to the Pats drafting, I'll take Box' word (as well as the word of a number of other posters on this board) over any national scout. BOR was basically the only person in the world aside from Michael Holley who had Mayo on our radar with #7. We took him at #10 and he ended up being DROY.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Here is his top 150 regardless of position as of 4/9/09.

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

 

[BradyManny]

I apologize to the moderators if I am unintentionally restarting a pissing contest.

I have largely stayed out of the pissing contest - but in response to Nawrocki's logic, what draft pick isn't to some extend a "developmental project", especially when we're talking about a 3-4 OLB candidate. Everette Brown or Brian Orakpo may go in the top 15 as 3-4 OLBs, they are unquestionably much harder to project as a 3-4 OLB than Barwin, so what the heck is Nawrocki talking about? I'm guessing he's spoken to a couple of teams that run 4-3s, and sure, they probably have questions about how Barwin would fare as a 4-3 DE in their system.

It goes for other positions and other picks. I'm high on Beatty, but no doubt, he's a "project". The guy who might go #1 in the draft, Jason Smith, is in some sense also a work in progress. The whole notion that a first rounder must be NFL-ready is absurd b/c very, very few rookies are just that.

 

[patchick]

Let's put aside Barwin for a moment and contemplate that at this late date he still has Jarron Gilbert at #83. That's unfathomable to me. This is a guy who was recruited as a tight end and ended up a 3-year starter on defense, earning 2nd-team all conference honors as a junior and all-world honors as a senior. He put up outstanding numbers in a hybrid DE/DT role -- 9.5 sacks, 22 TFL, 2 FF, etc. -- and has a rare frame with exceptional length and rare athleticism.

Now look at the number of teams potentially in the market for a 3-4 DE alone (he could fit other roles), and look at the pool available. Mid-third? No chance.

Add in some of the other players ranked surprisingly low and it looks to me like a systematic undervaluing of 3-4 defensive prospects.

 

[dryheat44]

Let's put aside Barwin for a moment and contemplate that at this late date he still has Jarron Gilbert at #83. That's unfathomable to me. This is a guy who was recruited as a tight end and ended up a 3-year starter on defense, earning 2nd-team all conference honors as a junior and all-world honors as a senior. He put up outstanding numbers in a hybrid DE/DT role -- 9.5 sacks, 22 TFL, 2 FF, etc. -- and has a rare frame with exceptional length and rare athleticism.

Now look at the number of teams potentially in the market for a 3-4 DE alone (he could fit other roles), and look at the pool available. Mid-third? No chance.

Add in some of the other players ranked surprisingly low and it looks to me like a systematic undervaluing of 3-4 defensive prospects.

Well, I have him in the 96-120 range (for the Patriots), so I get it. I still don't think he's a viable 3-4 DE. Then again, Nawrocki isn't doing a Pats-exclusive board. That being said, I like the fact that he's sticking to his methodology.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

The guy who might go #1 in the draft, Jason Smith, is in some sense also a work in progress. The whole notion that a first rounder must be NFL-ready is absurd b/c very, very few rookies are just that.

Totally agree with you there. The main thing we hear from any training camp rookie interviews is how much big of a step up it is for them to adjust to NFL practice expectations.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Thanks for the lilnk I always enjoy Nolan's draft value chart, and I think he will change it 1-2 times before the draft if he follows his form from prior years.

I am surprised where some players end up (round wise) on his value board, but if you take the players in the ranking order he has them, there are not that may shockers.

Maclin above Crabtree is another intersting ranking on his value chart.

Looking at round 1 he has the following listed as 1C players:
Offense-
Wells, Harvin, Robiskie, Pettigrew, Britton, Mack

Defense-
Ayers, Jerry, Maualuga, Lauriniaitis, Mathews

If I had my choice of his 1C options, I'd maybe take Harvin. I am not thrilled with the defensive players available in that grouping. Obviously, you can go below the grouping to grab a player, but we are at the higher end of the 1C group of picks, so we would be reaching significantly on his board if we did that.

If the choices were the 1C players On Offense: I would NEVER take Harvin with his off the field problems. Britton's game doesn't fit the Patriots and I don't draft RT in the first round. So on Offense I would reduce it to:
Wells,
Robiskie,
Pettigrew,
Mack.

On Defense: I discard Matthews as a raw, non-productive, athlete that needs lots of training. His first start was his fourth game of his Senior year! Jerrry is a 4-3, 3-technique player. But good DLs are where you find them, so I wouldn't cross him off. Mauluga is a 2 down run-stuffer and that is a dying breed. I discount him for that, but won't write him off yet.
So on Defense I would reduce it to:
Ayers,
Lauranitis
and then lower but also,
Perry,
Mauluga.

If that were your only choices at #23 who would you pick?

 

[VJCPatriot]

If the choices were the 1C players On Offense: I would NEVER take Harvin with his off the field problems. Britton's game doesn't fit the Patriots and I don't draft RT in the first round. So on Offense I would reduce it to:
Wells,
Robiskie,
Pettigrew,
Mack.

On Defense: I discard Matthews as a raw, non-productive, athlete that needs lots of training. His first start was his fourth game of his Senior year! Jerrry is a 4-3, 3-technique player. But good DLs are where you find them, so I wouldn't cross him off. Mauluga is a 2 down run-stuffer and that is a dying breed. I discount him for that, but won't write him off yet.
So on Defense I would reduce it to:
Ayers,
Lauranitis
and then lower but also,
Perry,
Mauluga.

If that were your only choices at #23 who would you pick?

Connor Barwin. Oh we had to pick from your list? Honestly would not want any of those guys in the 1st round. In the second round, ok Ayers (early-mid), Mack (mid-late), or Robiskie (mid-late), in that order. Don't really want to go offense 1st day unless it's a significant upgrade to the OL.

 

[mayoclinic]

For what it's worth, Nawrocki updated his draft value chart today:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

For those who question who Nawrocki is, Mike Reiss in his mailbag today mentioned Nawrocki and Rick Gosselin as the two sources who most influence his thoughts about draft prospects. For whatever that's worth.

 

[SamBamsFan]

Again, when it comes to the Pats drafting, I'll take Box' word (as well as the word of a number of other posters on this board) over any national scout. BOR was basically the only person in the world aside from Michael Holley who had Mayo on our radar with #7. We took him at #10 and he ended up being DROY.

Cough. Cough. That was me. Box was on Sabatical most of the last years draft.
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-sams-1st-round-mock-redux-1-1-4-23-08-a.html
Thanks for the update on this list Mayo...

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

For what it's worth, Nawrocki updated his draft value chart today:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

For those who question who Nawrocki is, Mike Reiss in his mailbag today mentioned Nawrocki and Rick Gosselin as the two sources who most influence his thoughts about draft prospects. For whatever that's worth.

Man he did not get much better with the update IMO, but I guess these guys are the pros. Some values just do not make sense??

 

[mgteich]

When you say the value chart doesn't make sense, do you mean that you disagree with the values on the chart, especially for ...... ?

Man he did not get much better with the update IMO, but I guess these guys are the pros. Some values just do not make sense??

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Cough. Cough. That was me. Box was on Sabatical most of the last years draft.
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-sams-1st-round-mock-redux-1-1-4-23-08-a.html
Thanks for the update on this list Mayo...

You taught me everything I know. :youtheman:

 

[SamBamsFan]

You taught me everything I know. :youtheman:

(Humble) I was forced to join Planet Patriot for your insight, but about Mayo I was right. Now Joe Staley who was my binky in '07 is a whole 'nother story...