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Nolan Nawrocki Draft Value Chart

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Apr 7, 2009.

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  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nolan Nawrocki at PFW has put out his first draft value chart:

    NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

    He lists prospects by round projected and within the round by early (A), middle (B) and late (C). Some of his interesting picks:

    - BJ Raji as a mid-1st rounder
    - William Beatty as a late 2nd round pick (after Jamon Meredith)
    - Connor Barwin as a mid 3rd round, after Lawrence Sidbury and Paul Kruger (mid 2nd round picks)
    - Jarren Gilbert as a mid 3rd round pick
    - Brian Robiskie as a late 1st round pick and Hakeem Nicks as a mid 2nd round pick
    - Mohammed Massaquoi and Louis Murphy as 2nd round WRs
    - Jason Williams as a late 5th round pick
    - Larry English as a mid 2nd round pick
    - Sean Smith as an early 3rd round pick
    - James Casey as a late 3rd round pick
     
  2. rsd

    rsd On the Game Day Roster

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    It definitely is interesting where some "experts" are picking some of the more popular players on these boards.

    I think as fans, we do get infatuated with particular players for whatever reason and the more they are mentioned around the forum the more their value is perceived to increase (i.e. group think). Will be fascinating to see where they end up.
     
  3. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    This board is going to explode in exasperation when Barwin "falls" to the 2nd or 3rd round.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2009
  4. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Mav, please don't turn this into another Barwin thread. That wasn't the intent. If you ignore the Barwin pick, wouldn't you say that listing Beatty as a late 2nd round pick, Gilbert as a mid 3rd rounder, Sean Smith as an early 3rd round guy, Raji as a mid 1st round pick, Hakeem Nicks as a mid 2nd round pick, etc. is a bit unusual and worth of discussion? Nawrocki seems to have some rather strong idiosyncratic views on a number of players. As he is not a lightweight and has some respect on this board (from me, among others), I thought his views were worthy of highlighting.
     
  5. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Box in 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 -------
     
  6. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He will end up being a mid to high 2nd rounder.And actually that won't be falling.

    My hope is that we can get him with 47 or even 34.

    You send in complaints about people being rude to you, but you never hesitate stir the pot on every opportunity.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2009
  7. bucky

    bucky 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Who the hell is Nolan Nawrocki?
     
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Pro Football Weekly's draft guy.
     
  9. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Pro Football Weekly's draft guy. Has been a pro scout. He took over from Joel Bushbaum, one of BB's most admired draft guys.

    There is a DRaft Special on ESPN2 NOW!
     
  10. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    When you have such a huge group of players that grade out this close to each other, it all comes down to what players each team projects as working in their system.

    In a draft like this is it possible to hang a late third round grade on a player and see a team draft him in the late first and vice versa.
     
  11. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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  12. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Well said. That is why I hate the value at #23 and love the fact that the Pats own a signficant portion of the draft in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Unless the Pats love a player available at #23, I would like to see them trade out and pick up a #1 in 2010. Always nice to have an extra 1st round pick when you are selecting #32.
     
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Au contraire, that's why I love the value at 23-47 in this draft. This draft will have almost identical talent from 21-50 as it will from 11-20. And we can quite possibly get 3-4 of those players - 3 or 4 1st round caliber picks.

    Mike Mayock says that this is the weakest top 10 in years, and that you will get the same value at 18-20 at 1/3 the price. He says his ideal spot to be picking for cost vs. value is 22.

    Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, more on 2009 NFL draft - Peter King - SI.com
     
  14. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Why not just do the same with #34? By keeping #23 you get a better choice.
     
  15. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You think it gets frisky here, Nut's twin mentally challenged brother and I go at it hammer and tongs at another site I frequent. I just wish I could get the guy to understand the expression refers to horseshoing tongs and not some flimsy tool out of the kitchen. :cool:
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2009
  16. BPF

    BPF In the Starting Line-Up

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    I agree with you on the Barwin thread but I was watching Path to the Draft on NFLN tonight and Mayock said Barwin's best position is TE and he is a 2-3 yr project at OLB and DE. He also said 2nd Rd is too high for him at OLB or DE but at TE is just right. Maybe the Pats agree and that's why they had Shane Waldron work him out initially.
     
  17. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Think you went a step too far. If there is identical talent from 21-50, it doesn't mean there are 50 first round caliber picks. It likely means there are 20 first round caliber picks. If you don't get one of those 20 (actually fewer players the Pats would actually draft), then pick #23 has more value as a combination of 2009 second + 2010 first.

    Not saying the Pats can't get a good player at a reasonable cost at #23. Just saying that pick #23 as an asset would have more value if the Pats can turn it into a 2010 1st round pick. Mayock's evaluation above actually makes pick #23 even more enticing for teams lacking a 2009 first (Chicago, Carolina, Dallas). Just so happens that I think those 3 teams have a great chance of underperforming in 2009.
     
  18. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Assuming that you can trade down from #23 into the 2nd round and pick up a future #1...similar to the Eagles/Carolina trade last year (#19 for #43+109+2009 1st). Not sure you could do something similar with #34.
     
  19. DocE

    DocE Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Thanks for the lilnk I always enjoy Nolan's draft value chart, and I think he will change it 1-2 times before the draft if he follows his form from prior years.

    I am surprised where some players end up (round wise) on his value board, but if you take the players in the ranking order he has them, there are not that may shockers.

    Maclin above Crabtree is another intersting ranking on his value chart.

    Looking at round 1 he has the following listed as 1C players:
    Offense-
    Wells, Harvin, Robiskie, Pettigrew, Britton, Mack

    Defense-
    Ayers, Jerry, Maualuga, Lauriniaitis, Mathews

    If I had my choice of his 1C options, I'd maybe take Harvin. I am not thrilled with the defensive players available in that grouping. Obviously, you can go below the grouping to grab a player, but we are at the higher end of the 1C group of picks, so we would be reaching significantly on his board if we did that.
     
  20. Box_O_Rocks

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    Most of us agree a conversion is a two-three year process, Mayock didn't even consider Barwin at TE before the Senior Bowl - surprise, surprise, surprise Mike, the kid can play. It wasn't until Path to the Draft begin in March that he started formulating his thoughts on how best to use him...but you'll note he never says to not begin the conversion work, just use him at TE for immediate return. ;)
     
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