My Thoughts on Pats/Colts

[Bella*chick]

Honestly, these posts areway, way better than wasting your time listening to pundits. I really appreciate all the work that goes into them.

I dreamed about the game last night.....no kidding. It was 48-28, us. Um, in my dream that was at halftime, LOL. I'll say 48-28 for the whole game in reality.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

I didn't read it, but I stand in awe....:rocker:

 

[Seacoast Fan]

Okay, I went back and read it....took about 4 minutes, for thsoe of you keeping score....and O-man, I'm still in awe:rocker: :rocker:

Good job, and it IS better than most of the crap in the mainstream.....

 

[Ring 6]

Ultimately, I think the difference in this game is that the Colts are totally incapable of covering our receivers.
I think EVERY matchup in the passing game (man, zone, short, intermediate, deep) is a mismatch.
I cannot fathom more than a odd handful of plays during this game where Brady won't find very open receivers.

I think the only way we will be stopped on offense is if we drop a 3rd down pass or run a 3rd down draw into a blitz.
We have seen 8 games of Brady dropping back and having very open receivers. The Colt defenders plus their scheme is not suited to prevent that.

If they play zone, Welker, Stallworth and Moss plus the RBs, will have a field day crossing zones. If they play man, they just dont have the skill to cover our receivers.
I see Brady throwing for over 400 yards and having another 75-80% completion % day.

 

[polish_colt]

Ultimately, I think the difference in this game is that the Colts are totally incapable of covering our receivers.
I think EVERY matchup in the passing game (man, zone, short, intermediate, deep) is a mismatch.
I cannot fathom more than a odd handful of plays during this game where Brady won't find very open receivers.

I think the only way we will be stopped on offense is if we drop a 3rd down pass or run a 3rd down draw into a blitz.
We have seen 8 games of Brady dropping back and having very open receivers. The Colt defenders plus their scheme is not suited to prevent that.

If they play zone, Welker, Stallworth and Moss plus the RBs, will have a field day crossing zones. If they play man, they just dont have the skill to cover our receivers.
I see Brady throwing for over 400 yards and having another 75-80% completion % day.

I respectfully disagree with your opinion. The Pats O/ Colts D scares me a lot, but I think our quickness will pay off. As you know Freeney and Mathis are a lot faster than anybody Brady saw this year. You will need double coverage for the most time of the game. As posted before - Bob Sanders. He might be the difference maker on the D: fast, solid, plays pass and run D well, big hitter.
Also our CB, even though are small (who isn't comparing to Randy?), again they are fast. If Tom is hurried by Freeney and Mathis, they will be OK. If Pats O line is dominant, the game is over in my opinion.

And don't forget about our piped, artificial noise, heat, paid Zebras and Polian already complaining about dirty tricks.....

 

[He Ban Me]

I can't answer your "who has played a *real* schedule" question because I don't feel like going through every schedule in the league. It is just my opinion, that a team that faced the opponents above (while those opponents were mssing several key guys) that just looking at points, yards, whatever isn't a perfect tool. I have no problem if you disagree. Frankly, even if Indy is what their stats say they are, I still find it hard to see them holding NE under 30 points.

I admit that NE had not faced a good defense until Washington, but the Skins were ranked highly in most defensive categories themselves. Even if you say that the Skins were a fraud - which I have no problem with - whatever logic you use against them also could be used against Indy. And even if we agree that Indy is better, NE put up 45 points on those guys in 51 game minutes. How much better does Indy need to be in order to "only" allow 30 points?

BTW, when I mentioned Cleveland and Dallas, I was talking about their offenses, not their defenses. My point being that even though NE and Indy's defensive stats are similar, NE has faced much more difficult offensive teams.

I agree that Indy's offense has been damn impressive, but I just don't think that Gray or Vinny earn the Colt D that much respect.

Saying that NE put up 45 in 51 means very little. Titans put up 282 on the ground at Jax, yet Jax goes to Denver and holds them to 42. We "hold" Titans at their place to half what Jax did. Denver looked like crap versus us, but beat Pitt, and supposedly blew the game against the Pack. I admit we have faced teams at less that 100%, you've been in that boat as well. Except we seem to have been able to make up for the losses better than our opponents. I don't buy the Gerrard thing either. I understand no picks, but who is truely afraid of Jax in the passing game? Even with Gerrard, their highest season output up to his departure/injury was 20 points. They actually scored 24 last week at Tampa (D TD included). JDR just came in with a horrible game plan. Bottom line to me is that Jax was not going to score 29 points that night, regardless of the QB. On the offenses, I guess my point was that there are a finite number of teams, the majority of them are one dimensional, or pretty mediocre, but 2 dimensional. So, the question again is, what defense out there really HAS faced multiple offensive juggernauts?? Why are we "over rated" because we've faced no one, yet Washington is held in high esteem? Dolphins, Eagles, Cardinals and Lions. Are we starting to praise the Lions?? Certainly our worst offensive opponents are at least that good.

In the end, all these arguements pretty much cut both ways. As Dungy states, this Sunday will determine who the best team is in November. If we lose, are we knocked out of the SB chase?? No way. If you lose, you giving up hope? I don't think so.

 

[Oswlek]

I respectfully disagree with your opinion. The Pats O/ Colts D scares me a lot, but I think our quickness will pay off. As you know Freeney and Mathis are a lot faster than anybody Brady saw this year. You will need double coverage for the most time of the game. As posted before - Bob Sanders. He might be the difference maker on the D: fast, solid, plays pass and run D well, big hitter.
Also our CB, even though are small (who isn't comparing to Randy?), again they are fast. If Tom is hurried by Freeney and Mathis, they will be OK. If Pats O line is dominant, the game is over in my opinion.

And don't forget about our piped, artificial noise, heat, paid Zebras and Polian already complaining about dirty tricks.....

How could we?

You would think that NE would double Freeney, but historically they have not. The only game that NE gave the LT significant help vs. Indy was the 2003 reg season game. Freeney had a sack and a near sack on the first two plays and wasn't heard from again. Light has gotten pretty good at holding Freeney back on his own. They guys that he struggles with are guys like Taylor in Miami who are excellent at all pass rushes. Freeney is mostly either running outside or spinning. Even when Light was gone in 2005, NE let a rookie single up on Freeney for much of the game.

I'm sure NE will try a little of both and if Freeney is playing like a man possessed he will be doubled. But they really haven't as much as you would think in the past.

 

[Oswlek]

Saying that NE put up 45 in 51 means very little. Titans put up 282 on the ground at Jax, yet Jax goes to Denver and holds them to 42. We "hold" Titans at their place to half what Jax did. Denver looked like crap versus us, but beat Pitt, and supposedly blew the game against the Pack. I admit we have faced teams at less that 100%, you've been in that boat as well. Except we seem to have been able to make up for the losses better than our opponents. I don't buy the Gerrard thing either. I understand no picks, but who is truely afraid of Jax in the passing game? Even with Gerrard, their highest season output up to his departure/injury was 20 points. They actually scored 24 last week at Tampa (D TD included). JDR just came in with a horrible game plan. Bottom line to me is that Jax was not going to score 29 points that night, regardless of the QB. On the offenses, I guess my point was that there are a finite number of teams, the majority of them are one dimensional, or pretty mediocre, but 2 dimensional. So, the question again is, what defense out there really HAS faced multiple offensive juggernauts?? Why are we "over rated" because we've faced no one, yet Washington is held in high esteem? Dolphins, Eagles, Cardinals and Lions. Are we starting to praise the Lions?? Certainly our worst offensive opponents are at least that good.

In the end, all these arguements pretty much cut both ways. As Dungy states, this Sunday will determine who the best team is in November. If we lose, are we knocked out of the SB chase?? No way. If you lose, you giving up hope? I don't think so.

NE has faced Dallas, Cleveland and Cincy - all of which are at least decent at running and passing. I'm not saying that they were dominant offenses, just that on 2nd and 5 you had to respect all options. Indy has not faced a single team that was a threat in both ways. Sure TN has some issues with both RBs and QB running, and NO looked like a threat, but neither really threatened the defense with multiple options.

Look, I agree that Indy is better, I just don't think they are ready to face an offense like NE. Do I think NE will shut down Indy? Of course not, but they have faced better offenses and - even more importantly - have faced this offense several times before. Even though there are some individual matchups that remain the same, NE is really a totally new offense to Indy.

BTW, Garrard isn't great, but Gray was dreadful in that game. I don't know if a week of practice helped him out this past week, but he was the nadir of quarterbacking in the Indy game.

Feel free to have you opinion, just don't say I didn't warn you.

 

[He Ban Me]

NE has faced Dallas, Cleveland and Cincy - all of which are at least decent at running and passing. I'm not saying that they were dominant offenses, just that on 2nd and 5 you had to respect all options. Indy has not faced a single team that was a threat in both ways. Sure TN has some issues with both RBs and QB running, and NO looked like a threat, but neither really threatened the defense with multiple options.

Look, I agree that Indy is better, I just don't think they are ready to face an offense like NE. Do I think NE will shut down Indy? Of course not, but they have faced better offenses and - even more importantly - have faced this offense several times before. Even though there are some individual matchups that remain the same, NE is really a totally new offense to Indy.

BTW, Garrard isn't great, but Gray was dreadful in that game. I don't know if a week of practice helped him out this past week, but he was the nadir of quarterbacking in the Indy game.

Feel free to have you opinion, just don't say I didn't warn you.

So, Cleveland with no Jamaal, and Cincy with no Rudi STILL counts, cause you played them?? If they were on OUR schedule, certainly you'd point that out, correct??

Don't warn me, warn Dungy.

 

[Oswlek]

So, Cleveland with no Jamaal, and Cincy with no Rudi STILL counts, cause you played them?? If they were on OUR schedule, certainly you'd point that out, correct??

Don't warn me, warn Dungy.

Of course!

 

[SVN]

historically jackson has played in the slot in nickeld defenses. how he controls welker could be the big key in this game.

 

[ATippett56]

As you know Freeney and Mathis are a lot faster than anybody Brady saw this year. You will need double coverage for the most time of the game.

That's a bunch of bull. Freeney has not sacked Tom Brady in the last three games and Matt Light is an accomplished left tackle who has been in the NFL since 2001. It's actually the opposite with regard to the Colts/Patriots. The Colts offense is starting a rookie left tackle and the Colts will need to double team either Mike Vrabel or Rosevelt Colvin rushing from the outside linebacker position. Furthermore, defensive end Richard Seymour will devour Tony Ugoh or Charles Johnson. Game ... Set ... Match.

 

[polish_colt]

That's a bunch of bull. Freeney has not sacked Tom Brady in the last three games and Matt Light is an accomplished left tackle who has been in the NFL since 2001. It's actually the opposite with regard to the Colts/Patriots. The Colts offense is starting a rookie left tackle and the Colts will need to double team either Mike Vrabel or Rosevelt Colvin rushing from the outside linebacker position. Furthermore, defensive end Richard Seymour will devour Tony Ugoh or Charles Johnson. Game ... Set ... Match.

I am not going to argue, that Freeney has not sacked Brady. He doesn't have to. To be productive he needs to try to get to him quickly, with Mathis helping on the other side. Tom Brady hopefully will not have 15 seconds to think about a nap prior to getting rid of the ball....
Also the crowd noise will make it a little bit easier for both of them, since O line will have to WATCH snap count, taking their eyes off of our duo for a split second....That might be enough to disrupt some plays......

 

[SVN]

I am not going to argue, that Freeney has not sacked Brady. He doesn't have to. To be productive he needs to try to get to him quickly, with Mathis helping on the other side. Tom Brady hopefully will not have 15 seconds to think about a nap prior to getting rid of the ball....
Also the crowd noise will make it a little bit easier for both of them, since O line will have to WATCH snap count, taking their eyes off of our duo for a split second....That might be enough to disrupt some plays......

all that is true but you make it sound they are a bunch of rookies playing for the first time in a crowd noise against those players. they played in the AFCCG didnt they ? and this off line and brady have played in bigger games . sure they may have a some issues but not on more than a couple of snaps i would think if at all

 

[ATippett56]

I am not going to argue, that Freeney has not sacked Brady. He doesn't have to. To be productive he needs to try to get to him quickly, with Mathis helping on the other side. Tom Brady hopefully will not have 15 seconds to think about a nap prior to getting rid of the ball....
Also the crowd noise will make it a little bit easier for both of them, since O line will have to WATCH snap count, taking their eyes off of our duo for a split second....That might be enough to disrupt some plays......

Nick Kaczur has been playing outstanding at right tackle this season. If anybody needs to be concerned about their right tackle it's the Colts. Have you forgotten that Patriots defensive end Jarvis Green schooled Ryan Diem for three sacks in the 2003 AFC Championship Game?

The Patriots offense this season is balanced, especially now that Laurence Maroney is completely healthy. As for Colts fans, are you hoping the Patriots lose their first, second, and third string running backs by the fourth quarter? Furthermore, the Colt rush defense is far worse than the Patriots rush defense.

Are you seriously expecting Tom Brady to drop back to pass every time and throw to stiffs at wide receiver: Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, and old man Troy Brown?

 

[Deus Irae]

I am not going to argue, that Freeney has not sacked Brady. He doesn't have to. To be productive he needs to try to get to him quickly, with Mathis helping on the other side. Tom Brady hopefully will not have 15 seconds to think about a nap prior to getting rid of the ball....
Also the crowd noise will make it a little bit easier for both of them, since O line will have to WATCH snap count, taking their eyes off of our duo for a split second....That might be enough to disrupt some plays......

The Freeney/Mathis duo will be a big thorn to be dealt with. However, when you talked about speed, I believe you were wrong. I think both Dallas (Ware) and the Chargers (Merriman/Phillips) brought more speed to the pass rush than the Colts will. What should be interesting is to watch both teams on obvious passing downs (3rd and, say 7 or more) to see whether either defense will bring lots of blitzes to the table.

 

[Ring 6]

The Freeney/Mathis duo will be a big thorn to be dealt with. However, when you talked about speed, I believe you were wrong. I think both Dallas (Ware) and the Chargers (Merriman/Phillips) brought more speed to the pass rush than the Colts will. What should be interesting is to watch both teams on obvious passing downs (3rd and, say 7 or more) to see whether either defense will bring lots of blitzes to the table.

Of course Freeney and Mathis will get pressure. They have to because they ignore run D resposnbilities. They can have their sacks while Maroney is blowing past them for 200 yards, and/or Brady has gotten the ball to an open receiver before they even get close to him.

The Colts WILL NOT stop the Patriots offense with the pass rush. They certainly could make some plays in the pass rush, but they will only stop the Pats offense if they ALSO play strong run D and cover the receivers.
I think its unrealistic to think they can do all 3.

 

[ATippett56]

Of course Freeney and Mathis will get pressure. They have to because they ignore run D resposnbilities. They can have their sacks while Maroney is blowing past them for 200 yards, and/or Brady has gotten the ball to an open receiver before they even get close to him.

The Colts WILL NOT stop the Patriots offense with the pass rush. They certainly could make some plays in the pass rush, but they will only stop the Pats offense if they ALSO play strong run D and cover the receivers.
I think its unrealistic to think they can do all 3.

One other factor no one has considered. Maximum protection off play action with Donte Stallworth running a twenty yard dig pattern while Randy Moss runs the deep post. The two man game worked with Deion Branch and David Givens against the number one defense in the NFL (at that time) during the 2004 AFC Championship Game.

 

[Ring 6]

One other factor no one has considered. Maximum protection off play action with Donte Stallworth running a twenty yard dig pattern while Randy Moss runs the deep post. The two man game worked with Deion Branch and David Givens against the number one defense in the NFL (at that time) during the 2004 AFC Championship Game.

We can keep 7 in to block, and send Moss, Welker and Stallworth into the pattern, and I dont think there is a defense that could cover them.
(Of course if you do it all day long, they will play man and double all 3, but the point of offensive straetgy is that they don't know whats coming).

This is one of the things about cover 2.
If I align with Moss and Welker to the right and Stallworth to the left, 2 RBs and a shot gun.
I keep the RBs in to block. I run Moss up the sideline, post corner, deep out, etc. I run Welker at or outside the hash marks. I run Stallworth across into the deep middle.
I have eliminated 2 1/2 of their defenders (the weakside safety may or may not get to Stallworth). I have basically taken their zone and run 3 guys to one side of it, which is equivalent to them having to cover 6 on the enitre field. Especially when I run them down the field so the weakside corner and OLB are totally uninvolved.
In this case, I also run my strong side RB into the pattern after his side has been blocked, and if all 3 guys are covered I have a wide open outlet. There is no one to cover him as the MLB is deep middle, the SOLB is occupied with Welker, the S and corner on Moss.

Damn, I think I just created something that would actually work.

 

[Deus Irae]

Of course Freeney and Mathis will get pressure. They have to because they ignore run D resposnbilities. They can have their sacks while Maroney is blowing past them for 200 yards, and/or Brady has gotten the ball to an open receiver before they even get close to him.

The Colts WILL NOT stop the Patriots offense with the pass rush. They certainly could make some plays in the pass rush, but they will only stop the Pats offense if they ALSO play strong run D and cover the receivers.
I think its unrealistic to think they can do all 3.

You're preaching to the choir here. In my opinion, if both teams bring their "a" games, New England wins by 20+.