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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Oct 25, 2012.

  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Interesting 3 round mock from Walter Football:

    2013 NFL Mock Draft - WalterFootball.com

    They have the Pats taking DT Kawann Short at 26, WR Cobi Hamilton at 55, and DE Datone Jones at 89. But what's interesting is Ziggy Ansah at 32, among other picks (Dion Jordan 22, Sheldon Richardson 24, Alec Ogletree 29, Jonathan Cooper 33, Matt Elam 37, Barrett Jones 40ish, among others).

    My preference, as of right now (assuming the Pats win the SB - no reason to lower expectations):

    1. Ignore DB in the draft on day 1 and 2. Re-sign Talib, keep McCourty at FS. Possibly add a FA CB or S
    2. Sign UFA DT Glenn Dorsey. Dorsey went on IR this year with a foot injury after 7 tackles, so his stock is down. He was out of place as a 3-4 DE. He may never live up to his top draft selection, but he should come cheaply and will give us the internal pass rusher we've lacked since Mike Wright.
    3. Round 1(32): Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU (32). Jonathan Cooper is tempting, but I want a stud opposite Chandler Jones. Add in Dorsey, and we should see more effect pressure inside and from both edges in 2014.
    4. Round 2(62): Interior OL. Pats can choose between Larry Warford (62), Travis Frederick (65), or Khaled Holmes (66). I probably pick Frederick because of versatility and smarts, but I'm happy with any. Alternatively, if the Pats take Cooper or Jones at 32, Margus Hunt (61) could be an alternative to Ansah at LDE.
    5. Round 3(94): Steadman Bailey, WR, West Virginia (94).

    Add in some re-signings, and I'd be pretty happy with that in the next 6 months.
     
  2. Marqui

    Marqui In the Starting Line-Up

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    I'm afraid they think they already have one in Ninkovich.
     
  3. Snake Eyes

    Snake Eyes Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Nink is solid but I think Ansah will be better than JPP.
     
  4. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ninkovich is a fine player. But I want a true stud opposite Jones. If you don't think the Pats don't need more off the edge, you might want to listen to Bill Parcells, who identified that as a major area of need.
     
  5. Merril Hoge's Tie Knot

    Merril Hoge's Tie Knot Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    :eek:!!!!!!!!!!
     
  6. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    From Parcells:

    It Is What It Is » Bill Parcells: This Patriots team is better than 2011 edition

    I think it's pretty obvious. ASSUMING that Devin McCourty stays at FS and works out as the deep FS and that Aqib Talib is a long-term solution as one of the outside CBs, he Pats' defense needs the following:

    1. Another edge rusher, ideally a complete LDE who can dominate as Jones dominbates on the right side
    2. An interior pass rushing DT
    3. A coverage LB
    4. A 3rd man CB after Talib and Dennard; Ras-I Dowling could possibly be that guy, but it's far from certain right now
    5. Depth at DT and a potential successor to Vince Wilfork

    I'd like to see the Pats pick up someone like Glenn Dorsey to address #2 (Henry Melton would be ideal, but won't make it to FA and would cost the earth), draft #1, draft #3 (Alec Ogletree would be ideal but unless the Pats are willing to use a 1st round pick he'll be gone; someone like Alonzo Highsmith might be a nice day 3 value), and evaluate the secondary further before potentially addressing #4 in FA. #5 can possibly be addressed late in the draft (though OTG has suggested Alameda Ta'amu as a possible pick up). Unless someone like Johnathan Hankins or Louis Nix unexpectedly falls into our lap I don't see this being a likely 1st round target right now.

    That's my quick take on the defensive blueprint as of week 11. Subject to change, of course.
     
  7. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #24 Jersey


    Trouble is, in terms of the draft:

    1. Aside from Chandler Jones, this has not been a draft priority in any way for BB.

    2. at best, BB only uses later round picks on this.

    3. Big uglies only need apply in BB's scheme.

    4. With his track record, drafting another CB feels like a certainty.

    5. Now you're in BB's wheelhouse, namely drafting someone who stops the run and offers nothing in the way of pass-rush.


    Unless BB is planning on changing his scheme considerably, options 1-3 could be a pipe dream.
     
  8. captain stone

    captain stone Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    No Jersey Selected

    Bill would have to change not only his drafting/defensive scheme, but also his coaching scheme.
    I have no confidence whatsoever that Bill could possibly acquire enough talent at all of the above
    positions to supercede the career-killin' coaching those players would receive from Boyer, Flores
    and Patricia. The inexperienced, underqualified, unimaginitive traveling salesmen Bill is employing
    to pitch his remedy are not convincing their targets to sign on the line that is dotted.
     
  9. Marqui

    Marqui In the Starting Line-Up

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    Oh I agree with you 100%. I'm just scared that they think they're getting enough off the edge from Ninkovich, and they'll pass on guys like Ansah/Jordan/Werner.
     
  10. Luxusdk

    Luxusdk On the Game Day Roster

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    #91 Jersey

    I think the last 2 loose to Giants in SB made Bill look on DE position in a new way. He liked stopping the run and rightfully so, but he also realice that stopping run is pointless when 60% or more is cast. He cahnced to 4-3 to fit into dime, nickle instead of 3-4 and he have seen what Giants did to Brady. Ziggy looks to perfect to pass up, can kick him inside if needed aswell. Dorsey as Mayo points out is stuck at 3-4, but is he the answer.. Who knows? Bequette what about him? Looks more like a inside the outside DE ( 3-4 )

    I wouldn't mind a front like: Ziggy, Dorsey, Vince and Jones - Ninko, Hightower and Mayo.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2012
  11. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

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    Completely disagree with this analysis. Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory are not the answer at the safety position. Tavon Wilson was recently demoted to dime back for the Buffalo Bills game. Nate Ebner is nothing more than a special teams player at this point in time. The bottom of the second round looks like the sweet spot for safeties in the 2013 NFL Draft. I'm not sold on McCourty as the long term solution at free safety.

    In 66 career NFL games, Glenn Dorsey has totaled 4 career sacks.

    Glenn Dorsey, DE for the Kansas City Chiefs at NFL.com

    Glenn Dorsey is not the answer to an interior pass rush. The New England Patriots should focus on an interior pass rush presence in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. Either Sheldon Richardson, DT from Missouri or Kawann Short, DT from Purdue should be available at the end of the first round.

    Completely disagree with this analysis since the New England Patriots already have five defensive ends under contract for the 2013 NFL Season: Jones, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Francis, Bequette. More patience is needed to develop the current rookies on the roster (Francis, Bequette).

    The defensive secondary is still a mess and either a safety or cornerback needs to be added to the New England Patriots roster no later than the bottom of the second round.

    Not only I could live with the selection, wide receiver Stedman Bailey was selected in my latest mock in the third round.
     
  12. Avenger

    Avenger Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    #11 Jersey

    I think that Ninkovich might be better suited to play how the Broncos utilize Von Miller
     
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Manx, as a physician I'm worried that you are developing the clinical signs and symptoms of "Captain Downer Syndrome", a severe case of terminal cynicism and pessimism regarding BB and the draft.

    Consider:

    1. BB double dipped at the pass rushing DE in the 2012 draft, using not only a 1st round pick (including a trade up) on Chandler Jones but a top 100 pick on Jake Bequette. So he obviously feels the positon is important. And, as BB has proven with the TE and BB positions, once he makes up his mind that a position is important, he'll keep investing in it. IF he believes - as Bill Parcells obviously does - that the Pats need another stud edge rusher, he won't hesitate to invest in it. And his investment in Chandler Jones has paid off handsomely so far.

    2. As far as only using later round picks on a pass rushing DT, I've suggested that Glenn Dorsey would be a fairly low cost investment, as were Myron Pryor and Mike Wright. So I don't see any conflict there. Dorsey hasn't produced any prolific stats in 5 years with the Chiefs, and he's gone on IR this year after producing a total of 7 tackles, so I'm not sure there will be a long line of teams lining up for his services. A market, maybe, but not a huge one.

    3. The acquisition of Aqib Talib suggests that perhaps BB has come to the conclusion that he has enough youth in the secondary, and that continuing to add inexperienced players isn't likely to fix the problems. I think he's more likely to look to free agency than to the draft, personally.

    4. There's no need for more "big ugly" LBs. We're stocked. Dane Fletcher will hopefully be back, which should help in terms of coverage. But if BB targets a LB at all, it would purely be as a coverage role. Again, he has shown some interest in such a role with Fletcher and with Jeff Tarpinian, and he did show interest in coverage LBs prior to the 2011 draft. There were rumors that if Lavonte David had slipped past Tampa Bay to 60 that the Pats might not have traded back.

    I understand that you're discouraged. I'm not sure why you feel so hopeless about BB's ability to adapt. He invested 2 high picks in edge rushers in the past draft.
     
  14. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #24 Jersey

    I don't understand this new dynamic on Pats fans that any rational approach to the Patriots gets labelled as Downer-ism.

    I'm far from a pessimist as regards BB and the draft, I've loved the last two drafts (if you want pessimism, you may want to check OTG's thread following the 2011 draft). I'm just merely acknowledging that our defensive issues result from a rather pre-determined defensive draft philosophy that I believe should be opened up somewhat. I believe BB values certain physical traits over actual playing talent and that worries me.

    I'm still positive about our defensive future, I've made a number of comments in that area, but at the same time I believe more can and should be done but I don't believe BB is prepared to do it.
     
  15. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    First, I think the world of you. You have tremendous insight and a great eye for draft prospects. And you're obviously entitled to your views on the team. It's just that I've noticed in the past week a negativity and fatalism about the defense that I hadn't noticed before. For example:

    or:

    Both imply a certain fatalism that things aren't going to change. And I guess I'm not sure why you seem so certain that BB isn't willing to adapt. The idea that he would have draft a couple of 265-270# DEs would have been blasphemy a few years ago, for example. Not long ago the board discussion was all about 5-tech prospects and 3-4 OLB tweeners.

    I'm not trying to preach to you or judge you. You're entirely entitled to be critical of the defense. It just seemed like this was a more pessimistic outlook coming from you.

    Now you're talking! I'm completely with you here. As one of the leading proponents of the "draft Lavonte David" fan club last spring and the "draft Richard Sherman" fan club the year before, it's extremely frustrating to me to see those guys playing for other teams, when their skills are sorely needed in our defense. Sherman looks like he could be the best shutdown CB since Darrelle Revis, and we could have had him in the 5th round. We could badly use a cover LB with David's range and skills, and I never bought into the "he doesn't fit our size profile" argument. I don't think that BB is nearly as rigid as Bill Parcells was regarding measurables, but I do think that he tends to have certain predetermined criteria that may exclude guys who turn out to be really good players, and we've missed out on some darn good ones.

    I've tried to outline what I think needs to be done in this thread, and in some of the defensive strategy threads on the main forum. I'd love to see the defense get more creative with its schemes, and bit more diverse in terms of its use of personnel as well. I share your frustration in that regard, but I'm perhaps a bit more optimistic that things will eventually move forward.
     
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I get that we disagree. And I'm not suggesting that Chung/Gregory are the solution, or that Ebner is ready to be more than a STer at this time. I do disagree with you about 3 things, however:

    1. I think that DMac is the solution at FS, and as the defensive captain of the secondary that we haven't had since Rodney. The guy who holds everything together, the playmaker, etc.

    2. I'm OK with Wilson/Gregory at the other safety position, tentatively, for now. I see Chung moving on after this year, and I don't really see him fitting right now, unless it's as a hybriud S/LB.

    3. I don't really want more rookie DBs. We've had enough youth. If we get more DBs I want some experience out there. And I'd rather have coverage skills. I'd love to pair McCourty with someone like Jarius Byrd or Dashon Goldson, not that that would ever happen. But Talib/Dennard + 1 more press CB out there (even Dowling might come back next year) and 2 safeties like that, and I think the fur would fly. I just think we have had enough youth in the secondary, so it's not a DRAFT target for me. I do want to add either a safety or a cornerback, but not through the draft.

    First, I'd rather have Sheldon Richardson or Kawann Short than Glenn Dorsey. No question. But they would require a high draft pick, and, unlike you, I do believe that LDE is a priority. I'm all for developing Francis and Bequette, and I think they can be important role players, but I don't see either being the long term starting solution opposite Chandler Jones. Of course, if BB feels otherwise, then by all means go for Ricahrdson or Short if they are available. I'd love to get Richardson. He's one of my favorite prospects in the draft.

    Dorsey is a low cost pickup of a decent penetrating DT who can help generate interior pressure. He won't be the "answer" by himself, but he's a better interior rusher than anyone we've had. It's not surprising that he hasn't put up any sack numbers, since he's been playing out of position as a 3-4 2-gap DE for the Chiefs under Pioli. That's not his game at all, and it doesn't give him much in terms of sack opportunities. If he had been left as a 3-technique then he might have thrived by now. That, combined with his injury this year, is why he will be a cheap option. And even the best pass rushing DTs aren't going to put up huge sack numbers. But I think that he could be a cheap option to improve the internal pass rush - something that BB obviously wanted to do with Jonathan Fanene. Would I rather have Henry Melton? Sure. But it won't happen. And no draft prospect is a guarantee, either. Dorsey coming out of college was considered more of a "sure thing" than Short or Richardson.

    Again, you may think the Pats are all set on the edge, but I'm not the only one who thinks they could use an upgrade opposite Jones, and it's been a constant theme all year on the game day threads about how Jones is the only guy generating consistent pressure. But with 2 legitimate edge threats and a decent internal sub rusher I think there will be much more consistent pressure.

    For the record, I think Sheldon Richardson is a stud and could play outside at LDE as well as inside. I think the Pats could play him opposite Jones with Wilfork-Love inside, and then move him inside on 3rd down with Ninko or Cunningham on the edge. So if he were available around our 1st round pick I'd be very happy to grab him. But I doubt he'll last that long.
     
  17. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

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    We agree to disagree on the subject of Devin McCourty and the future of the free safety position.

    We agree to disagree with regard to the future of Steve Gregory, who in my opinion is a waste of salary cap space, and Tavon Wilson, who at best is suited for the "dime" defensive back position. Patrick Chung will be an unrestricted free agent and has regressed since the 2010 NFL season.

    I'm not concerned about youth, I'm concerned about TALENT. Kenny Vaccaro, FS from Texas and Tony Jefferson, FS from Oklahoma are far better second round 2013 NFL Draft prospects than second round 2012 NFL Draft selection Tavon Wilson.

    There is no guarantee that cornerback Aqib Talib will work out in the short term let alone the long term, especially considering the lucrative unrestricted free agent cornerback market.

    Glenn Dorsey never lived up to the lofty draft expectations and in retrospect was overrated and overhyped.

    LSU DT Dorsey's unspectacular pro day shouldn't hurt his draft stock - NFL - CBSSports.com News, Rumors, Scores, Stats, Fantasy

    In only 27 NFL career games, Brandon Deaderick has recorded as many career sacks as Glenn Dorsey.

    Brandon Deaderick, DE for the New England Patriots at NFL.com
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
  18. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #24 Jersey

    As I said, it's not a question of being pessimistic, it's a question of understanding BB's philosophy, as best one can, in relation to the draft and setting one's cloth accordingly. Now you talk about Bequette and Jones as examples of BB's flexible philosophy and suggest that they are an example of a flexible approach from BB and to an extent you are right in that they are pass rushers. But they are also 260 lb+, 6-4 longarmed edge players and that falls precisely within BB's wheelhouse in terms of a red-line size requirement so it's not as flexible as one might think.

    I was a big fan of both Lavonte David and Hightower last year. On hindsight, David is looking like he would have been the better pick, not so much because he may or may not be playing better but because he'd better fix a gaping hole we have on defense than Hightower. That's not to say I think the Hightower pick was a bad one, but it does lead me to question whether BB will even contemplate a smaller faster linebacker for this team. If you look at our roster, aside from the special teams ace Tracey White, all our linebackers are in the 245-255 range (Tarpininian is 240), there just isn't any evidence that BB is prepared to consider any LBer of David's size, mores the pity.

    So in summary, I just don't see BB being flexible enough to ignore his size requirements when it comes to high defensive picks and that he is far more focused on a defense built to contain rather than attack. That's the reality of trying to predict a Patriots draft and whilst we may want someone like Alec Ogletree, Khaseem Greene, Arthur Browne or even Dion Jordan I'm not even sure they'd get all that much consideration from BB. That's not pessimism, just my interpretation of BB's philosophy.

    Good news is, it still leaves Jesse Williams in play (and Ansah and Carradine).
     
  19. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

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    We've talked a lot about the last two drafts Mayo. With the amount of picks we had,we should have a better defense. We clearly do not. I'm a cup is half full guy. I think we blew it. BB changed his defense without the personnel to do it. You need a dt that can rush the passer. We don't have one. You don't need a 270lb(Hightower) to play the SAM. We could have taken David over Tavon Wilson. No need to trade up/down. We used two early picks on rb's. One was great. We have a backup qb. Yeah. We have an oft-injured cb. Two pass rushing prospects sitting there; Sheard and Reed. We passed on both. We still don't have a wr. Torrey Smith and Randall Cobb(My preference) were sitting there when we drafted Vereen. And, Cobb even helps our lousy return game.

    I think McCourty is the only legit player in our secondary under our control beyond this year. And, I want to let Chung walk. How is that possible with all of the capital used?

    The Hightower pick looks good if Spikes walks. Which I expect. As you mentioned, Levonte David would have been perfect for this defense.

    Chandler Jones looks great. Outstanding move ++++++. Vince is aging and playing way too much. Love should be used as a 1st down guy and backup to Vince. Still need that dt. Still need a de opposite Chandler Jones.

    I just can't bellieve this is what we have. The 2010 draft and Solder set the offense up. All we had to do was draft smartly with the rest of the picks. We didn't.
     
  20. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There's absolutely no doubt we'e missed some opportunities. Big opportunities, with some prospects on many people's radar. I'm not trying to be the team apologist for that. But there have also been some amazing hits: Gronk, Hernandez, Jones, Solder (he'll be a stud LT for us for a long time), Vollmer (huge hit), McCourty (I believe he's a top DB talent, he just hasn't been used consistently; as a zone CB or a FS he's a Pro Bowl player), Ridley, Mesko. Every team has their hits and misses, and we've had our fair share.

    I was very high on some of the guys you mentioned (Lavonte David, Randall Cobb) and on some others who could have had a huge impact (Richard Sherman, Red Bryant). No doubt some of those guys would have helped. I still have high hopes for Vereen, Hightower, Wilson and several others, and I'm not sure they were bad picks. It's too early to judge them. No doubt mistakes were made, but perfection is a very high standard in the draft.

    Teams have proven in the NFL that it's not a very big leap from mediocre to very good, or very good to great. We're already very good bordering on great. One good interior pass rusher and/or a stud LDE, a better press/man corner, some more safety help and/or a coverage LB. Any combination of those would probably be enough to push the defense into the category where our team would be great. It's no use crying over spilt milk. Time to go out and address needs and correct some deficiencies.
     

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