My Blueprint For the Pats

[Sciz]

Nor was Brian Waters, to take a more recent example.

Andre Carter, too. The actual signings (not trades) last season worked out damn well.

 

[mayoclinic]

Unless it's a Jeckyll & Hyde deal I'm pretty sure they're different people.

I prefer to think of it more as Smeagol/Gollum, my precious.

 

[mayoclinic]

Andre Carter, too. The actual signings (not trades) last season worked out damn well.

The thing with both the Waters and Carter signings were (1) BB got them on the cheap, and (2) they filled an open position of need. In the case of Ed Reed, I question the "getting him on the cheap part", and I don't understand how he relates to Devin McCourty as our FS. Are you going to move McCourty back to CB? Given that Reed is 35 and isn't a long term solution, I don't see that as a great idea. Add those 2 things up, and I think it's a long shot. But I understand BB's love for the player, and so I don't entirely rule it out.

 

[manxman2601]

The thing with both the Waters and Carter signings were (1) BB got them on the cheap, and (2) they filled an open position of need. In the case of Ed Reed, I question the "getting him on the cheap part", and I don't understand how he relates to Devin McCourty as our FS. Are you going to move McCourty back to CB? Given that Reed is 35 and isn't a long term solution, I don't see that as a great idea. Add those 2 things up, and I think it's a long shot. But I understand BB's love for the player, and so I don't entirely rule it out.

Rather than McCourty/Gregory, just have Reed/McCourty. Having said that, I thought Gregory played pretty well against the Dolphins the other day.

 

[Ivan]

Unless it's a Jeckyll & Hyde deal I'm pretty sure they're different people.

Thanks, either way i am grateful for their contributions.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Jake Ballard (RFA), Michael Hoomanawanui (RFA),

FWIW, I believe that Ballard is still an ERFA b/c his contract tolled (b/c he spent the entire season on PUP; ditto for Myron Pryor).

If so, it's an extra $500K or so the Pats could use elsewhere.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That scenario seems "Belichick-like" to me in a couple of respects:

- Pats pick up 2 1st round talents without using a 1st round pick. Ogletree and Carradine are both 1st round talents.
- Pats get a 1st round talent who falls due to injury, and red shirt him. Class Pats move.
- The trade back to 50 targeting Ogletree is a "win-win". If he's there, the Pats get a 1st round talent at 50. If he's not, they flip the pick into 2014 and load up for the future. Either way works for me.

FWIW, what player would be available at #50 that a team would be willing to give up a first rounder for? I can't see the Pats getting anything more than a straight first-rounder; TBH, I think the best they could hope for would be something like a late second and a 2014 3rd or maybe a 2013 3rd and a 2014 2nd.

 

[EwanSellars]

Trade Ryan Mallett and 2013 2nd round pick to Arizona for 2014 first round pick and 2013 4th/5th
Trade 1st round pick at 30-32 for Dallas 2nd round 50 and 82
Sign Matt Cassel to back up
Draft Kawann Short at 50
Draft Quinton Patton at 82
Draft Tank Carradine at 90-96
Draft Brian Winters in 4th from AZ
Draft Caraun reed in 7th
Draft Terron Armstead in 7th

This gets us a pass rushing DT
My personal binky of the draft Quinton Patton
Tank Carradine who would probably be a 1st rounder in 2014
Brian Winters helps out on the OL smaller school guy but would still be a great pick
Caraun Reed DT Princeton played very well in the couple of games ive seen could get some time when Wilfork takes a rest developmental
Terron Armstead OT UAPB quick athletic tackle that could move inside or stay at tackle Manx made a thread about this guy and hes a 7th rounder or UDFA most likely and thats saying something

 

[mayoclinic]

I wonder if Joe Kruger might be a good fit in the 94-102 range of the above mock instead of Carradine. Great size at 6'7" 280#. Need to look at more film of him.

 

[stelfans]

I wonder if Joe Kruger might be a good fit in the 94-102 range of the above mock instead of Carradine. Great size at 6'7" 280#. Need to look at more film of him.

With a good combine this kid good really rise. Watch out!

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

So, with the regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start, here's some initial thoughts:

FA:

- Pats re-sign FAs Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, Sebastian Vollmer, Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington, Myron Pryor, Jake Ballard (RFA), Michael Hoomanawanui (RFA), Donald Thomas, Dane Fletcher, and one of Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin (if Arrington can't be re-signed for reaosnable money then both Cole and Martin could be re-signed as the nickel/dime guys and STers); they will need to do some significant restructuring to accomplish this
- Let go: Deion Branch, Pat Chung, Trevor Scott (would like to resign, but $$ may not be there), Tracey White (would like to resign, but $$ may not be there), Niko Koutovides, Josh Barrett, Will Allen, Jamey Richard. Chung has salvaged a bit the past few weeks, but I just don't see enough to warrant re-signing him. White and Scott are valuable role players, but they aren't my priorities, and given the number of FAs and the cap situation, if someone has to go they are down the line. I'd welcome both back if it could be managed. Branch has had a great career, but it's time to move on. He'll be on the shadow roster for 2013.
- Cut/traded: Daniel Fells, Spencer Larsen, Brian Waters (retired), probably one of Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin (money issue, unless Kyle Arrington walks)
- External FAs: Pats sign QB Matt Cassel. I wouldn't mind picking up someone like DT Glenn Dorsey as an alternative to Pyror, but unless some money can be found, I'm not sure how to do it.

Draft:

All picks based on CBS Sports/NFL DraftScout's current (1/1) rankings (indicated in parentheses) and taken within 5 picks of their current order:

Trades:

- Pats trade 32 (590 points) to Dallas for 50 and 82 (580 points).
- Pats trade Ryan Mallett to Arizona for 102, 135 and a conditional 2013 pick;
- Pats trade their 2 7th round picks to Philly for #165 in the 6th round.

50. Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia (81). 6'3" 234#.

Freak! Physical freak with tremendous range and upside, will solve the LB coverage problems. Dont'a Hightower moves up on the line at times. If Trent Murphy declares, he is an option. Otherwise, the Pats flip this pick for a 2013 1st.

62. Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon St. (57) 6' 182#.

Greyhound! Silky smooth WR with a bit of Reggie Wayne/Greg Jennings in his game. If the Pats re-sign Welker and Edelman, a WR group of Welker, Lloyd, Wheaton and Edelman would be very nice.

82. David Amerson, DB, North Carolina St. (83) 6'2" 194#.

Stud Horse! Big DB who was an interception machine in 2011 but struggled this year. Move him to safety along with McCourty, and he will match up beautifully on TEs and big WRs as well.

94. Cornelius "Tank" Carradine, DE, Florida St. (103) 6'5" 265#.

Wounded Beast! 1st round talent who slips because of ACL injury. Goes on PUP and probably gets a red shirt year, but could be another Chandler Jones. William Gholston (114) is intriguing, but his inconsistency is scary.

102. Brian Winters, OG, Kent St. (116) 6'5" 310#.

Stud Horse! Physical, tough, small school lineman reminiscent of Logan Mankins, should step in immediately and eventually take over at LG.

135. Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern (143). 6'3" 328#

Sleeper! Small school prospect with hints of Vince Wilfork kind of athleticism, had 8.5 sacks and 16.5 TFL playing NT this year. Can penetrate as well as be a space eater.

160. Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio St. (161) 6'7" 305#.

Sleeper! Former TE with one year of experience at RT. Very athletic, could develop as a swing tackle or even eventual starter.

Lot of speed and athleticism with that draft, plus some physical toughness. A fair amount of overlap with Manx's draft - not surprising, given that we like a lot of the same guys, and he's had a big influence on my thoughts. It's ironic though that Manx currently has the Pats taking Tavon Austin in the 1st round - my binky at WR for the Pats for months, but I just wouldn't take a WR in the 1st - while I have them taking his binky Wheaton in the 2nd.

Initial 2013 Roster:

QB(2): Brady, Cassel
RB(5): Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden, Jeff Demps
WR(5): Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Markus Wheaton, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater
TE(4): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui
OT(5): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Reid Fragel, Markus Zukevics
OG/C(6): Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Brian Winters, Donald Thomas, Ryan Wendell, Nick McDonald

DT(5): Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick, Brandon Williams, Myron Pryor/Marcus Forston
DE(5): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Francis, Jake Bequette; Dont'a Hightower also plays DE; PUP/IR: Tank Carradine
LB(5): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower (also plays DE), Brandon Spikes, Alec Ogletree, Dane Fletcher
S(5): Devin McCourty, David Amerson, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB(5): Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin

ST(3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Danny Aiken

That's 55 players. There would like be only four OTs, cutting the number to 54. The last cut would work itself out.

Note that if Alec Ogletree goes earlier than #50 the Pats try to flip #50 for a 2014 1st round pick, and then they probably try to re-sign Tracy White or Niko Koutovides later on, or promote Jeff Tarpinian from the PS. Either way, the Pats get a 1st round talent at #50 in Ogletree, or hopefully a 2014 1st.

I think this would address the major priorities expressed in the OP:

1. Fix the secondary: Talib/Dennard outside with Dowling for depth, and some combination of Arrington/Cole/Martin as the slot/nickel/dime/ST guys; McCourty staying at FS and becoming an Earl Thomas kind of safety and the QB of the secondary, with David Amerson developing as a big, rangy safety (perhaps an Adrian Wilson kind of player), with Gregory/Wilson as backups and playing the big nickel role, and Ebner for STs and development. I think this would be a very strong group.

2. The defensive line: Ninkovich/Cunningham/Francis/Scott has emerged as a nice platoon opposite Chandler Jones. I'd like to keep Scott but it may not be feasible. Hopefully Jake Bequette can step up and replace his productivity. In addition, if the Pats get Alec Ogletree it would allow Dont'a Hightower to play on the DL more, which should more than make up for Scott's loss. For the long term, Tank Carradine would be a potential stud DE opposite Chandler Jones. He would likely redshirt for 2013, but could be a force in 2014. Brandon Williams is an under-the-radar talent with 2nd round potential who could develop nicely as a rotational DL. He offers more athleticism and playmaking ability than Love or Deaderick. The return of Myron Pryor and/or the development of Marcus Forston (or picking up Glenn Dorsey in FA, a longshot given the cap situation) would add a penetrating interior lineman that we've needed.

3. The OL: extending Vollmer is key. Donald Thomas has been a nice surprise this year, and should be kept on. Brian Winters is a potential long term starter at OG. Reid Fragel offers athleticism and upside as a swing tackle, or even a long term starter.

4. Receivers: keeping Welker and Edelman and adding a WR like Wheaton gives a solid long term group. Sign Ballard and Hoomanawanui as depth behind Gronk and Hernandez and the Pats are in very, very good shape.

5. A coverage LB: Alec Ogletree would be far more than that, and well worth the #50 pick. He's a 1st round talent, and would allow the Pats to move Dont'a Hightower around more and take advantage of his versatility.

Add in an extra conditional pick for 2014. If Ogletree is gone, then an extra 1st, which could be used to snag some major talent.

Love it! I absolutely love it! It’s actually very close to the plan I’m working on. I specifically like the balance you achieved and value you acquired.

I do have my issues with it of course.

Mallett: The only way I see him being traded is if it’s to a coach or GM that is familiar with him. Otherwise I don’t think he will get enough in return. There are possible scenarios; Pioli’s Chiefs (yeah I know) O’brien’s Eagles, McDaniels’ Browns. I feel it’s unlikely, but I’m nitpicking.

Fells: I’d keep him around. The first three “TEs” are injury risks. I’d like to keep him as depth, at least right now. Again, nitpicking.

The only other thing is I need some UDFAs! I need some Sleeper Stud Horses!

Overall, great job, but I expect nothing less.

 

[mayoclinic]

I need some UDFAs! I need some Sleeper Stud Horses!

The following are all rated lower than 240 according to NFL Draft Scout's current rankings:

- Colin Klein, QB/WR/TE, Kanas St. (249) 6'5" 226#.
- Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado. (252) 6'6" 265#.
- Blaise Foltz, OG, TCU. (253) 6'4" 310#.
- Quanterus Smith, DE, Western Kentucky. (259) 6'4" 248#.
- Michael Catapano, DE, Princeton. (299) 6'4" 272#.
- Zach Brown, K, Portland St. (302) 6' 206#.
- Dexter McCoil, S, Tulsa. (318) 6'3" 222#.
- Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt. (321) 5'9" 210#.
- Mark Jackson, OL, Glenville St. (350) 6'5" 332#.
- Quinton Dial, DE, Alabama. (369) 6'5" 304#.
- William Campbell, DE/DT, Michigan. (376) 6'5" 308#.
- Alonzo Highsmith, OLB, Arkansas. (397) 6' 234#.
- Aaron Hester, CB, UCLA. (398) 6'1" 207#.
- Garrett Gilkey, OT, Chadron St. (400) 6'6" 324#.
- Vinston Painter, OT, Virginia Tech. (472) 6'6" 309#.
- Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton. (487) 6'2" 292#.
- Sheldon Price, CB, UCLA. (495) 6'1" 180#.
- Luke Marquardt, OT, Asuza Pacific. (561) 6'8" 312#.

Some of these kids will undoubtedly be drafted. But any who fall through to be UDFAs would be of some interest to me. There's a lot of talent in that group - I dare to say some of them will end up being significant contributors down the road. Plus Menelik Watson from Florida St. if he slipped through that far.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

nfldraft scout has ogletree in the top 15, iirc.

Did you see Amerson get torched against Tenn.? He is lacking in pure speed.

Not sure about Carradine, he got stoned agaginst Xavier Nixon in the Florida game. Interestingly if Brandon Jenkins doesn't get injured, you don't see Carradine play this year very much. He's UDFA material. So where are the hidden Carradines? Guys with ability who haven't gotten much playing time or whatever?

Ogeltree is definitely undervalued at 80, but I’m sure that’s why Mayo picked him up at 50.

Not sure what you’re’ talking about regarding Carradine. He had a monster game vs Florida. He had 11 tackles (1.5 for loss) and was creating pressure the entire game. I re-scouted that game yesterday and left with a renewed admiration of him as a prospect.

3. As for Tank having one "bad game", in which he got half a sack, it's his similarity to Chandler Jones that Mayo and I like, particularly his long arms. He's an excellent fit for what BB likes from his DE's, the ability to set the edge as well as get after the passer in a controlled way.

4. As for "hidden Carradine's", that's the Holy Grail of scouting.

As much as I like Carradine, I will be surprised if he has even close to the length of Jones. Jones is long even when compared to offensive tackles, never mind defensive ends. I will be happy if Tank’s arms are 34 inchers.

As for finding "hidden Carradines" it’s a difficult task. FSU might be the only team with enough depth at DL to have Carradine sitting on the bench.

It sounds crazy talking about it now. I think Carradine is a much better player than Jenkins.

I'm not a big fan of signing Ed Reed, who will be 35 and who has been toying with retiring for years. Can't see him being a long term solution. Wouldn't mind Kenny Phillips, though his injury history is a bit scary. Would love to get Henry Melton, though I can't see him leaving Chicago. But is any of it worth losing Vollmer and Welker? If they're gone anyway, those are reasonable options. But not first choices.

What do you think Philips will demand for a contract? I didn’t know he was a FA but he could be a perfect fit.

 

[mayoclinic]

Ogeltree is definitely undervalued at 80, but I’m sure that’s why Mayo picked him up at 50.

I think it's a pipe dream that Ogletree lasts to the 3rd round, but I could see an outside chance that his stock drops to around 50 if character issues come up during the draft process. The draft process a finicky thing, and hard to predict. This time 2 years ago DaQuan Bowers was a possible #1 pick, and he ended up dropping to the 50's on injury concerns. Ogletree is an undoubted talent, but he's also raw and has had a suspension for off-field issues, so there's a chance he could drop, though I think the odds are against it. Since I used NFL DraftScout rankings it was fair game, but I shaded it to be a bit more realistic.

Not sure what you’re’ talking about regarding Carradine. He had a monster game vs Florida. He had 11 tackles (1.5 for loss) and was creating pressure the entire game. I re-scouted that game yesterday and left with a renewed admiration of him as a prospect.

As much as I like Carradine, I will be surprised if he has even close to the length of Jones. Jones is long even when compared to offensive tackles, never mind defensive ends. I will be happy if Tank’s arms are 34 inchers.

As for finding "hidden Carradines" it’s a difficult task. FSU might be the only team with enough depth at DL to have Carradine sitting on the bench.

It sounds crazy talking about it now. I think Carradine is a much better player than Jenkins.

I love Carradine as a player and agree that he will be much better than Jenkins. My biggest reservation with him is his length and bulk for playing LDE opposite Jones. From a purely physical standpoint I'd favor someone more with a frame like William Gholston or Joe Kruger (6'7" 280#) or Trent Murphy (6'6" 265# with room to grow). I want someone who can set the edge, 2-gap in 4-3 and 3-4 schemes, clog the passing lanes, and bull rush as well as be a speed rusher. But Carradine is a great talent and a fine player, so I'd have to give him some serious thought if he slipped that far.

What do you think Philips will demand for a contract? I didn’t know he was a FA but he could be a perfect fit.

Phillips was drafted in 2008 so his rookie deal is up. He just turned 26, but he's had a lot of injury issues and was limited to 7 games this year. He was very effective when teamed with Antrel Rolle, who like Devin McCourty was a converted CB who played more of a rangy FS kind of role, and I think he would be very good paired with McCourty. The Giants have some major cap issues and a lot of FAs and will have to decide who to keep and who to let walk, and there's been a fair amount of speculation that they could let Phillips walk. If so, I'm not sure what his market value would be. I think his injury history would keep him below guys like Dashon Goldson and Jarius Byrd. But he might still be outside of our reach. It's hard to predict the FA market. I'm guessing in the $5-6M/year range, but it's a wild guess. The franchise tag is in the $6M range IIRC, and the high end contracts run in the $8M/year+ range (starting with Eric Weddle). I have a hard time seeing anyone giving that kind of money to a guy who's missed the better part of 2 of his 5 seasons.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I love Carradine as a player and agree that he will be much better than Jenkins. My biggest reservation with him is his length and bulk for playing LDE opposite Jones. From a purely physical standpoint I'd favor someone more with a frame like William Gholston or Joe Kruger (6'7" 280#) or Trent Murphy (6'6" 265# with room to grow). I want someone who can set the edge, 2-gap in 4-3 and 3-4 schemes, clog the passing lanes, and bull rush as well as be a speed rusher. But Carradine is a great talent and a fine player, so I'd have to give him some serious thought if he slipped that far.

I'm with you. He's not perfect, but he's close and represents too much value to pass up in the third. I think he's just bulky enough to move inside in dime and some nickel situations, but in the 3-4 he's more of a LB, especially here.

Phillips was drafted in 2008 so his rookie deal is up. He just turned 26, but he's had a lot of injury issues and was limited to 7 games this year. He was very effective when teamed with Antrel Rolle, who like Devin McCourty was a converted CB who played more of a rangy FS kind of role, and I think he would be very good paired with McCourty. The Giants have some major cap issues and a lot of FAs and will have to decide who to keep and who to let walk, and there's been a fair amount of speculation that they could let Phillips walk. If so, I'm not sure what his market value would be. I think his injury history would keep him below guys like Dashon Goldson and Jarius Byrd. But he might still be outside of our reach. It's hard to predict the FA market. I'm guessing in the $5-6M/year range, but it's a wild guess. The franchise tag is in the $6M range IIRC, and the high end contracts run in the $8M/year+ range (starting with Eric Weddle). I have a hard time seeing anyone giving that kind of money to a guy who's missed the better part of 2 of his 5 seasons.

I was going to say 4 years 21 million? Maybe 25? If we can fit him under the cap I'd do it. He's a top 15 safety when healthy. I think Wilson is going to develop though. We don't need Phillips, but he'd be an upgrade and good bring good value if he's healthy.

 

[captain stone]

So, with the regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start, here's some initial thoughts:

FA:

- Pats re-sign FAs Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, Sebastian Vollmer, Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington, Myron Pryor, Jake Ballard (RFA), Michael Hoomanawanui (RFA), Donald Thomas, Dane Fletcher, and one of Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin (if Arrington can't be re-signed for reaosnable money then both Cole and Martin could be re-signed as the nickel/dime guys and STers); they will need to do some significant restructuring to accomplish this
- Let go: Deion Branch, Pat Chung, Trevor Scott (would like to resign, but $$ may not be there), Tracey White (would like to resign, but $$ may not be there), Niko Koutovides, Josh Barrett, Will Allen, Jamey Richard. Chung has salvaged a bit the past few weeks, but I just don't see enough to warrant re-signing him. White and Scott are valuable role players, but they aren't my priorities, and given the number of FAs and the cap situation, if someone has to go they are down the line. I'd welcome both back if it could be managed. Branch has had a great career, but it's time to move on. He'll be on the shadow roster for 2013.
- Cut/traded: Daniel Fells, Spencer Larsen, Brian Waters (retired), probably one of Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin (money issue, unless Kyle Arrington walks)
- External FAs: Pats sign QB Matt Cassel. I wouldn't mind picking up someone like DT Glenn Dorsey as an alternative to Pyror, but unless some money can be found, I'm not sure how to do it.

Draft:

All picks based on CBS Sports/NFL DraftScout's current (1/1) rankings (indicated in parentheses) and taken within 5 picks of their current order:

Trades:

- Pats trade 32 (590 points) to Dallas for 50 and 82 (580 points).
- Pats trade Ryan Mallett to Arizona for 102, 135 and a conditional 2013 pick;
- Pats trade their 2 7th round picks to Philly for #165 in the 6th round.

50. Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia (81). 6'3" 234#.

Freak! Physical freak with tremendous range and upside, will solve the LB coverage problems. Dont'a Hightower moves up on the line at times. If Trent Murphy declares, he is an option. Otherwise, the Pats flip this pick for a 2013 1st.

62. Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon St. (57) 6' 182#.

Greyhound! Silky smooth WR with a bit of Reggie Wayne/Greg Jennings in his game. If the Pats re-sign Welker and Edelman, a WR group of Welker, Lloyd, Wheaton and Edelman would be very nice.

82. David Amerson, DB, North Carolina St. (83) 6'2" 194#.

Stud Horse! Big DB who was an interception machine in 2011 but struggled this year. Move him to safety along with McCourty, and he will match up beautifully on TEs and big WRs as well.

94. Cornelius "Tank" Carradine, DE, Florida St. (103) 6'5" 265#.

Wounded Beast! 1st round talent who slips because of ACL injury. Goes on PUP and probably gets a red shirt year, but could be another Chandler Jones. William Gholston (114) is intriguing, but his inconsistency is scary.

102. Brian Winters, OG, Kent St. (116) 6'5" 310#.

Stud Horse! Physical, tough, small school lineman reminiscent of Logan Mankins, should step in immediately and eventually take over at LG.

135. Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern (143). 6'3" 328#

Sleeper! Small school prospect with hints of Vince Wilfork kind of athleticism, had 8.5 sacks and 16.5 TFL playing NT this year. Can penetrate as well as be a space eater.

160. Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio St. (161) 6'7" 305#.

Sleeper! Former TE with one year of experience at RT. Very athletic, could develop as a swing tackle or even eventual starter.

Lot of speed and athleticism with that draft, plus some physical toughness. A fair amount of overlap with Manx's draft - not surprising, given that we like a lot of the same guys, and he's had a big influence on my thoughts. It's ironic though that Manx currently has the Pats taking Tavon Austin in the 1st round - my binky at WR for the Pats for months, but I just wouldn't take a WR in the 1st - while I have them taking his binky Wheaton in the 2nd.

Initial 2013 Roster:

QB(2): Brady, Cassel
RB(5): Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden, Jeff Demps
WR(5): Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Markus Wheaton, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater
TE(4): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui
OT(5): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Reid Fragel, Markus Zukevics
OG/C(6): Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Brian Winters, Donald Thomas, Ryan Wendell, Nick McDonald

DT(5): Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick, Brandon Williams, Myron Pryor/Marcus Forston
DE(5): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Francis, Jake Bequette; Dont'a Hightower also plays DE; PUP/IR: Tank Carradine
LB(5): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower (also plays DE), Brandon Spikes, Alec Ogletree, Dane Fletcher
S(5): Devin McCourty, David Amerson, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB(5): Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin

ST(3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Danny Aiken

That's 55 players. There would like be only four OTs, cutting the number to 54. The last cut would work itself out.

Note that if Alec Ogletree goes earlier than #50 the Pats try to flip #50 for a 2014 1st round pick, and then they probably try to re-sign Tracy White or Niko Koutovides later on, or promote Jeff Tarpinian from the PS. Either way, the Pats get a 1st round talent at #50 in Ogletree, or hopefully a 2014 1st.

I think this would address the major priorities expressed in the OP:

1. Fix the secondary: Talib/Dennard outside with Dowling for depth, and some combination of Arrington/Cole/Martin as the slot/nickel/dime/ST guys; McCourty staying at FS and becoming an Earl Thomas kind of safety and the QB of the secondary, with David Amerson developing as a big, rangy safety (perhaps an Adrian Wilson kind of player), with Gregory/Wilson as backups and playing the big nickel role, and Ebner for STs and development. I think this would be a very strong group.

2. The defensive line: Ninkovich/Cunningham/Francis/Scott has emerged as a nice platoon opposite Chandler Jones. I'd like to keep Scott but it may not be feasible. Hopefully Jake Bequette can step up and replace his productivity. In addition, if the Pats get Alec Ogletree it would allow Dont'a Hightower to play on the DL more, which should more than make up for Scott's loss. For the long term, Tank Carradine would be a potential stud DE opposite Chandler Jones. He would likely redshirt for 2013, but could be a force in 2014. Brandon Williams is an under-the-radar talent with 2nd round potential who could develop nicely as a rotational DL. He offers more athleticism and playmaking ability than Love or Deaderick. The return of Myron Pryor and/or the development of Marcus Forston (or picking up Glenn Dorsey in FA, a longshot given the cap situation) would add a penetrating interior lineman that we've needed.

3. The OL: extending Vollmer is key. Donald Thomas has been a nice surprise this year, and should be kept on. Brian Winters is a potential long term starter at OG. Reid Fragel offers athleticism and upside as a swing tackle, or even a long term starter.

4. Receivers: keeping Welker and Edelman and adding a WR like Wheaton gives a solid long term group. Sign Ballard and Hoomanawanui as depth behind Gronk and Hernandez and the Pats are in very, very good shape.

5. A coverage LB: Alec Ogletree would be far more than that, and well worth the #50 pick. He's a 1st round talent, and would allow the Pats to move Dont'a Hightower around more and take advantage of his versatility.

Add in an extra conditional pick for 2014. If Ogletree is gone, then an extra 1st, which could be used to snag some major talent.

Thanks for the great work keeping us up-to-date. 2 thoughts:

Is the release of Cassel a fait accompli, or would the cap hit be too onerous for Pioli
(or whoever replaces him) to consider? Because if Cassel isn't released, then trading
Mallett doesn't happen.

And while I really like the mock in theory, I'm still kinda wary of waiting until #50
before making our first pick, esp if Ogletree is gone by then. What's a palatable Plan B?

Otherwise, keep up the good work folks; it's well appreciated.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Thanks for the great work keeping us up-to-date. 2 thoughts:

Is the release of Cassel a fait accompli, or would the cap hit be too onerous for Pioli
(or whoever replaces him) to consider? Because if Cassel isn't released, then trading
Mallett doesn't happen.

And while I really like the mock in theory, I'm still kinda wary of waiting until #50
before making our first pick, esp if Ogletree is gone by then. What's a palatable Plan B?

Otherwise, keep up the good work folks; it's well appreciated.

Watch Arthur Brown - LB - K-State tonight against Oregon's spread. There's your Plan B. Very good player.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thanks for the great work keeping us up-to-date. 2 thoughts:

Is the release of Cassel a fait accompli, or would the cap hit be too onerous for Pioli (or whoever replaces him) to consider? Because if Cassel isn't released, then trading Mallett doesn't happen.

And while I really like the mock in theory, I'm still kinda wary of waiting until #50 before making our first pick, esp if Ogletree is gone by then. What's a palatable Plan B?

Otherwise, keep up the good work folks; it's well appreciated.

My options for "plan B":

- Take Matt Elam at 32, or with a small trade back; Alonzo Highsmith becomes my late round/FA target for a coverage LB. Elam is everything Pat Chung isn't, and adds a Troy Polamalu kind of energy to the secondary.
- Take Ogletree at 32, and somehow find the cap room to sign FA S Kenny Phillips, as discussed above. If unable to sign Phillips, add a late round/FA S like Dexter McCoil. Ogletree can play a hybrid S/LB role.

I prefer plan A, but these are options.

As for Cassel, his 2013 cap hit is $9.8M. Yes, $9.8M. Cutting him would result in a $4.2M dead money hit, and free up $5.6M of cap space. I can't believe that he'll be around. The Chiefs have pretty much stripped Pioli of all power, and I don't think he'll be the one making that call. It won't get made until someone takes charge of that organization. But I can't imagine whoever does will want to be burdened with that contract, or with the Cassel situation.

 

[captain stone]

If those cap #s are correct, then yes, Cassel's definitely gone.

Another question becomes, however: Do we really want him back here,
after all he's been through there (sacks, turnovers, concussions etc)?

 

[Off The Grid]

Because if Cassel isn't released, then trading
Mallett doesn't happen.

Wrong.

You don't know that. :snob:

Mad Bill has long since proven that he's not afraid to go with Rookies behind Brady.