Mike Giardi Tonight on ST: Re: Signing the "Big Three".

[Ivan]

OK. So
Collins franchised at $14.5M
Hightower signed for $10M
Butler matched at $10M

I guess this works for some folks.

When has a team given a first round pick and ten million to an RFA?

I'm not even limiting it to corner, I can't remember the last time that happened.

As far as Hightower and Collins go that's a distinct possibility, that would eat up 20-25 million depending upon structure. If it happened I think Sheard and Ryan would likely be gone, but they could also choose to let Collins walk and sign Sheard. Ultimately I think they are going to lose some really good players but they aren't going to lose all of them.

 

[Deus Irae]

OK. So
Collins franchised at $14.5M
Hightower signed for $10M
Butler matched at $10M

I guess this works for some folks.

I'm not really seeing a problem here.

1. Cap rising will offset some of the cost increase (I've seen multiple projections of another $10m+ being added to the cap)
   
2. Nobody's likely to give $10m per to a RFA who gets the first round level tag
3. Brady's still making well below the standard QB money, and his cap hit will still be just $14m, so that advantage is still present
4. This team has no high priced DL
5. Vollmer's deal ends after this season, and they're probably not bringing him back with a $5m+ cap hit
6. Mayo's $4.4m hit from 2016 will not be there again in 2017
7. Amendola's not coming back with a $7m cap hit
8. Waddle and Kline will either be good values for about $3.2m combined, or they'll be replaced by cheaper and/or better players

 

[Joker]

there's arguments against each player...

Hightower...prone to injuries

Collins...stretches of inconsistency...recent nagging injuries

Butler...more suited as a #2 corner than the pay slot of a #1

Me? I sign all three. I think 99% of the board feels this way.

When has the Patriot brain trust EVER felt like we do?

 

[VectorPrime]

One of the main points for dumping Jones was because he was the odd man out going forward. If we don't manage to sign all three than shame on us. Simple as that.

 

[mgteich]

I'm not really seeing a problem here.

1. Cap rising will offset some of the cost increase (I've seen multiple projections of another $10m+ being added to the cap)
   
2. Nobody's likely to give $10m per to a RFA who gets the first round level tag
3. Brady's still making well below the standard QB money, and his cap hit will still be just $14m, so that advantage is still present
4. This team has no high priced DL
5. Vollmer's deal ends after this season, and they're probably not bringing him back with a $5m+ cap hit
6. Mayo's $4.4m hit from 2016 will not be there again in 2017
7. Amendola's not coming back with a $7m cap hit
8. Waddle and Kline will either be good values for about $3.2m combined, or they'll be replaced by cheaper and/or better players

It should be fun to play defense without Sheard, Ninkovich, Harmon, Ryan, Branch, Long and Knighton. And of course, we won't have Bennett, Blount, Vollmer or Cannon.

Signing or replacing these players will cost cap money.

BTW, the $70M everyone discusses is without Amendola on the team.

The current cap room is about $65M with $41 players signed. Take away $1M a player and you now have $52M to play with, much more than normal. But, of course, we have lots, lots more important free gents than normal. In any case, many will be extended before we come out of the bye.

 

[VectorPrime]

Belichick spent 6 freaking years assembling the pieces to get an elite defense again. 2008-2013 was one long period of middling to outright bad defense. And now that he finally found the right pieces for an elite defense, young cornerstone players who are projected to be all-pros as they go into their primes, he would be utterly insane to let them go.

 

[supafly]

Are they really going to have 70million in cap space next year?

Yeah, sure--it's a number that's getting thrown around a lot lately (it's actually about 64m). Keeping things in perspective, the Broncos actually have about 5m+ more, so they're actually right at 70m available.

The key aspect to note is that both teams only have 44 players under contract at the moment, so yes--they'll have about 60m dollars available with "only" 46 players to sign to hit the 90 man roster limit...that's one very important fact that keeps getting swept under the rug.

At the end of the day, they will still be in good shape, but I doubt that makes Belichick stray too far from his "value" system.

 

[supafly]

The current cap room is about $65M with $41 players signed. Take away $1M a player and you now have $52M to play with, much more than normal. But, of course, we have lots, lots more important free gents than normal. In any case, many will be extended before we come out of the bye.

For comparison's sake, we currently have 88 players under contract for this season vs. next (44).

It's going to take a lot more than "just" 13 players to get signed under contract, isn't it? You seem to be suggesting that we only need to sign 13 players by your above bolded comment.

In my opinion, you can automatically cut the current projection of 64m right in half. That would take us down to around 30m for the start of free agency, which we've had plenty of times in past seasons. It's obviously considered "good shape," but it's a bit different than some are suggesting.

As you well know, we could have 100+million in available space and it still wouldn't make Belichick value his players any higher on the open market. He's probably not likely to pay everyone their market value, as pessimistic as that may sound. We'll know by next spring. Until then, let the speculation begin, but it's funny how many scoffed at the idea to trade Chandler Jones, so I expect much of the same.

 

[jmt57]

It seems as though we go through this exercise each and every year.

OMG, starters A, B and C will be free agents, as will players D, E, F and G.
Then next year players H, I, J, K, L and M will be free agents. Oh noes!!!!

Here's the thing: that same scenario is going on with 31 other NFL teams.

Unlike sports like baseball (where even scrubs get 7-year fully guaranteed contracts), the NFL typically operates with contracts from only one to four years. That means a comparatively large portion of the roster will be set to become free agents every year.

This is not some sort of impending doom; it is standard operating procedure for both the Patriots as well as the rest of the NFL.

 

[supafly]

This is not some sort of impending doom; it is standard operating procedure for both the Patriots as well as the rest of the NFL.

Very good point, jmt.

One could also make a strong argument that it's standard operating procedure for Belichick to get production from his cheap, rookie contracts, while being rather selective of those he gives mega-blockbuster 2nd contracts to. That's pretty much one of the reasons (aside from #12, which masks a lot) how he continues to stay ahead.

While I don't expect him to allow them all to leave, I also don't understand how anyone can just assume that they'll all be returning. As of now, we have one major player on defense who makes top dollar, and that is McCourty. Are we really going to suddenly go from 1 to 4? Personally, I would be shocked, but I'm hoping that 2/3 can be retained. Perhaps the decision to forego the pursuit of Chandler Jones can help here. Fingers crossed.

 

[Deus Irae]

It should be fun to play defense without Sheard, Ninkovich, Harmon, Ryan, Branch, Long and Knighton. And of course, we won't have Bennett, Blount, Vollmer or Cannon.

Signing or replacing these players will cost cap money.

BTW, the $70M everyone discusses is without Amendola on the team.

The current cap room is about $65M with $41 players signed. Take away $1M a player and you now have $52M to play with, much more than normal. But, of course, we have lots, lots more important free gents than normal. In any case, many will be extended before we come out of the bye.

This year's cap is $155.27m. Next year's will not be lower. The Patriots current 2017 theoretically sunk cost is at $101.3m. If you look at projections, and stop with the misleading "$1m a player" line, you're looking at having between the $65m you mention and the $70m neighborhood.

That means that, if they high end is right, even the most expensive player, according to your numbers, would be more than covered just by the cap bump. That, in turn, means you'd only need to cover two of them with the current numbers, and that's assuming you give the first signing a cap hit of the full $15m.

1. Ninkovich will be 33, Branch will be 32. Are you expecting them to get some huge pay increases for going elsewhere? Isn't it more likely, especially in the case of Ninkovich, that they'll accept a fair deal in N.E., and that such a deal would be reflective of current monies (Nink's getting about $2m this season, and Branch is getting just a bit more) impacted by the impact of their ages?
2. Long's done nothing yet, and is playing on a flier contract, so why is he relevant? A monster year was always going to lead to a potential problem because of how the Patriots handle such things, a middling year means the team may give him a legit, low-to-fair offer if it's not a financial hardship for the team, and a down year means he's gone.
3. Knighton's theoretical replacement is already on the roster, assuming Valentine works out. If not, the Patriots may, indeed, have to make a decision about whether or not to make Knighton a higher offer than they might otherwise have done.
4. As you know, I've generally defended Cannon a bit, but his money is a bit high for his role, so I'm not sure why you're including him as an issue here. His position will need to be filled, assuming he's not cut this year, but that should be doable at a lower number.
   
5. Blount doesn't make big money and, in all probability, neither will his replacement, assuming there is one.
   
6. Vollmer won't likely command big money if the team wants him back, due to age and injury concerns.
   
7. Bennett is likely gone no matter what, because he's always been likely to chase the highest dollar, or at least close to it.
8. Harmon and Ryan are legit, if overblown (especially in the case of Ryan), situations, but the team has brought in about 50,ooo CBs in order to find a Ryan replacement and slot CB, and has about 40,000 safeties in case Harmon moves on.

So, really, it likely only comes down to Sheard, and whether or not they choose to dip deep into the pocket to keep him. The potential loss of one significant 'irreplaceable' player isn't usually a problem for the Patriots, I'm told pretty much every year. Why should it be a problem this year?

I think a more legit question/concern is "What's the thinking behind not getting to the OT situation a year early?", but that's about focus rather than money, although money may have played a part.

 

[BradyFTW!]

there's arguments against each player...

Hightower...prone to injuries

Collins...stretches of inconsistency...recent nagging injuries

Butler...more suited as a #2 corner than the pay slot of a #1

Me? I sign all three. I think 99% of the board feels this way.

When has the Patriot brain trust EVER felt like we do?

I think the Pats and (most of) Patsfans came down on the same side of the whole "Trade Brady" debate.

 

[Ring 6]

Really. Huh. We have people around here (including myself) throw BS against the wall and people respond/agree/critique.

So why do you have a problem with people critiquing what Giardi threw against a wall?

A person who actually covers the Pats as a JOB has zero idea what players might think? This isn't a soley Pats decision is it? A good sense of trends etc?

Why would these players talk to Mike Giardi about their contracts? Do we have examples of players actually giving him inside info about ANYTHING?

He isn't exactly reporting news here. Comments like:

He also said from what he's heard there won't be a hometown discount from anyone outside of a million here or there.

Are so vague they are clearly wild guesses.

As far as the team, this comment is nothing more that a total guess which he admits if you actually read the words.

Also, he doesn't feel the team will even come close to wanting to nor will match the top dollar crazy money they will be offered. He said he's been feeling he's been wrong all along.

Nice to see people who have work connections to form their opinions are obviously useless compared the to the geniuses and well connected individuals on this forum, right?

Please show me where people on this forum have made a claim that they have inside information about these contract negotiations and where they were met with belief and faith.

 

[jmt57]

Very good point, jmt.

One could also make a strong argument that it's standard operating procedure for Belichick to get production from his cheap, rookie contracts, while being rather selective of those he gives mega-blockbuster 2nd contracts to. That's pretty much one of the reasons (aside from #12, which masks a lot) how he continues to stay ahead.

While I don't expect him to allow them all to leave, I also don't understand how anyone can just assume that they'll all be returning. As of now, we have one major player on defense who makes top dollar, and that is McCourty. Are we really going to suddenly go from 1 to 4? Personally, I would be shocked, but I'm hoping that 2/3 can be retained. Perhaps the decision to forego the pursuit of Chandler Jones can help here. Fingers crossed.

I would certainly expect for there to be more than one player making top dollar next year as well as in following seasons.

Sometimes the big money is spread around. In 2010 when the cap was $132 million, Tom Brady's cap figure was $17 million - over 13% of the cap - six other players (Moss, Koppen, Mayo, Wilfork, Light and Wilfork) each had cap figures of over $4 million apiece. Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

In 2013 Wilfork and Mankins both had cap figures north of $10 million, while Mayo and Talib combined for another $10.7 million of cap space. Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2013 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

After watching the departures of Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Adam Vinatieri, Willie McGinest, Wes Welker and countless others, I am not going to come remotely close to assuming that all three will return. However, I do anticipate that the purse strings will loosen up a bit before the advent of free agency next spring.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, sure--it's a number that's getting thrown around a lot lately (it's actually about 64m). Keeping things in perspective, the Broncos actually have about 5m+ more, so they're actually right at 70m available.

The key aspect to note is that both teams only have 44 players under contract at the moment, so yes--they'll have about 60m dollars available with "only" 46 players to sign to hit the 90 man roster limit...that's one very important fact that keeps getting swept under the rug.

At the end of the day, they will still be in good shape, but I doubt that makes Belichick stray too far from his "value" system.

You are not taking rule of 51 into account

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Yeah, sure--it's a number that's getting thrown around a lot lately (it's actually about 64m). Keeping things in perspective, the Broncos actually have about 5m+ more, so they're actually right at 70m available.

The key aspect to note is that both teams only have 44 players under contract at the moment, so yes--they'll have about 60m dollars available with "only" 46 players to sign to hit the 90 man roster limit...that's one very important fact that keeps getting swept under the rug.

At the end of the day, they will still be in good shape, but I doubt that makes Belichick stray too far from his "value" system.

44 under contract already, plus 10 - 15 UDFA, + 7 rookies, + Vets with minimum salaries benefits ... They can EASILY reach 70 guys with 55m in cap space.

They can sign all 3 plus sheard and even Bennett if they want.

They dont have a expensive WR. They dont have a expensive DE. They dont have a expensive DT. The QB is making way less than the ´´elite`` guys..

If they cut Amendola and Cannon they increase the salary space by approximately 7.5 million. They can bring back Amendola for 3 m and save the extra 4.5 ...

Nate Washington - Dont think he even make the 53
Rob Ninkovich - 3m
Martellus Bennett - 8m
Chris Long - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Matt Slater - 1.5m
Sebastian Vollmer - 3.5m
Donald Brown - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
EJ Biggers - Dont think he even make the 53
Ramon Humber - Dont think he even make the 53
Terrance Knighton - 4m
LeGarrette Blount - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Frank Kearse - Dont think he even make the 53
Jabaal Sheard - 8m
Marcus Cannon - Dont think he even make the 53
Christian Yount - Dont think he even make the 53
Donta Hightower - 10m
Brandon Bolden - 1.5m
Jonathan Freeny - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Markus Kuhn - Dont think he even make the 53
Joe Vellano - Dont think he even make the 53
Duron Harmon - Too expensive
Chris Barker - Dont think he even make the 53
Jamie Collins - 10m
Logan Ryan - 4m
Jonathan Cooper - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Aaron Dobson - Dont think he even make the 53
Keavon Milton - Dont think he even make the 53
James Develin - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Rufus Johnson - Dont think he even make the 53
Michael Williams - Dont think he even make the 53
Brock Vereen - Dont think he even make the 53
Tyler Gaffney - Dont think he even make the 53
Malcolm Butler - 10m
Cameron Fleming - Dont think he even make the 53
DeAndre Carter - Dont think he even make the 53
Chris Harper - Dont think he even make the 53
Kevin Snyder - Dont think he even make the 53
Justin Coleman - 2.5m
Cedric Thompson - Dont think he even make the 53
Brandon King - 1.5 m

 

[supafly]

44 under contract already, plus 10 - 15 UDFA, + 7 rookies, + Vets with minimum salaries benefits ... They can EASILY reach 70 guys with 55m in cap space.

They can sign all 3 plus sheard and even Bennett if they want.

They dont have a expensive WR. They dont have a expensive DE. They dont have a expensive DT. The QB is making way less than the ´´elite`` guys..

If they cut Amendola and Cannon they increase the salary space by approximately 7.5 million. They can bring back Amendola for 3 m and save the extra 4.5 ...

Nate Washington - Dont think he even make the 53
Rob Ninkovich - 3m
Martellus Bennett - 8m
Chris Long - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Matt Slater - 1.5m
Sebastian Vollmer - 3.5m
Donald Brown - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
EJ Biggers - Dont think he even make the 53
Ramon Humber - Dont think he even make the 53
Terrance Knighton - 4m
LeGarrette Blount - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Frank Kearse - Dont think he even make the 53
Jabaal Sheard - 8m
Marcus Cannon - Dont think he even make the 53
Christian Yount - Dont think he even make the 53
Donta Hightower - 10m
Brandon Bolden - 1.5m
Jonathan Freeny - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Markus Kuhn - Dont think he even make the 53
Joe Vellano - Dont think he even make the 53
Duron Harmon - Too expensive
Chris Barker - Dont think he even make the 53
Jamie Collins - 10m
Logan Ryan - 4m
Jonathan Cooper - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Aaron Dobson - Dont think he even make the 53
Keavon Milton - Dont think he even make the 53
James Develin - They can use the DRAFT to upgrade
Rufus Johnson - Dont think he even make the 53
Michael Williams - Dont think he even make the 53
Brock Vereen - Dont think he even make the 53
Tyler Gaffney - Dont think he even make the 53
Malcolm Butler - 10m
Cameron Fleming - Dont think he even make the 53
DeAndre Carter - Dont think he even make the 53
Chris Harper - Dont think he even make the 53
Kevin Snyder - Dont think he even make the 53
Justin Coleman - 2.5m
Cedric Thompson - Dont think he even make the 53
Brandon King - 1.5 m

Very informative post. The one area where we disagree a bit is the place where coach Belichick signs players just because he has available cap space.

 

[supafly]

You are not taking rule of 51 into account

Right. So all of players 52-90 wouldn't count in this exercise, so we can get a better estimate of their worth. Good catch.

 

[BobDigital]

Lets say the Pats have 75M in cap space next year which they easily could. Take out 10 million for emergency funds and draft picks and other.

Now we can easily spend 65M on players.

Hightower - 11M per year
Collins 11M per year
Butler 12M per year (or they can hold off paying him next year
Vollmer 5M per year
Sheard 7M per year
Nink 3M per year (minor pay cut is likely)

This will cost between 40-50M give or take depending on if you pay Butler or not and you still have 25-15M to spend on your DTs and other positions.

 

[Ivan]

OK. So
Collins franchised at $14.5M
Hightower signed for $10M
Butler matched at $10M

I guess this works for some folks.

Where do you get Butler at 10 million? I have said that he's not a priority this season in pretty much every post. If he will take 8 a season they might do the deal as an extension after this season but that's the only way he gets paid early.