Maturation of Julian Edelman

[RIpats88]

Welker and Edelman are both good players, but there a lot of guys in the NFL that would put up huge numbers in the slot in NE. I truly believe that Davone Bess, for example, would have had similar numbers to Wes if he had come here at the same point in his career. Ditto Jeremy Kerley and Harry Douglass and probably many others. This is because: (1) Brady is ridiculously accurate on short passes, allowing for YAC and (2) it is much easier to get open out of the slot because there is a two-way go and the receiver is off the line so can't get jammed. The thing that gives JE a little bit more value is that he is more than just a slot guy. He is able to play the slot and "Z" receiver positions in the Pats offense.

I think Amendola wouldve put up huge numbers this year had he stayed healthy as well...he's still on pace for around 600yards.....thats why I wasn't as worried about losing Welker as I was Gronkowski/Vereen to injury

Brady/The new england offense uses Slot guys as much more than a "security blanket" Brady thrives on those short passes

 

[zen]

I love the guy! Please keep him as long as possible. He is so flexible and talented at so many things. His versatility is so useful and so deadly.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If Edelman was able to see reps on a team with Moss (138 targets) and Welker (162 targets) in 2009 I don’t know what Gronkowski would have to do with it? You realize Gronkowski was only targeted 59 times in his rookie season correct? He has been targeted 62 times since returning in week 7 this season, he was not a top target he was actually fourth on the team in 2010. I know he played defense in 2011 but if he was an integral part of the offense I am sure they could have used Slater or found someone else to play that role, the reason he was used there is because he was not being used any place else.

Belichick 2009 – 11 games, 54 targets
O’Brien 2010 – 15 games, 14 targets
O’Brien 2011 – 13 games, 8 targets
McDaniels 2012 – 9 games, 32 targets

I look at that and I see a player who came in did really well as a rookie with Belichick handling the offense, then was not used much if at all in the next 2 years with O’Brien as the OC and under McDaniels is has progressed drastically 2 years under him. In my opinion that indicates that O’Brien was not using or developing Edelman and McDaniels has done an excellent job, from day 1 of training camp last year Edelman was used significantly more with McDaniels running things.

In the Welker-less loss to the Ravens, Edelman was arguably, at worst, the third-best pass catcher on the field at any given time (after Moss and maybe Faulk).

By the end of the 2010 season, you had GRONK, Prisoner, Branch, Welker, and Woodhead, all of whom were better catchers than Edelman.

I'm not saying that O'Brien couldn't have done better in terms of developing Minitron. I'm merely saying that even if he had been developing, he would rarely be a top option in the passing game.

 

[Brady6]

In the Welker-less loss to the Ravens, Edelman was arguably, at worst, the third-best pass catcher on the field at any given time (after Moss and maybe Faulk).

By the end of the 2010 season, you had GRONK, Prisoner, Branch, Welker, and Woodhead, all of whom were better catchers than Edelman.

I'm not saying that O'Brien couldn't have done better in terms of developing Minitron. I'm merely saying that even if he had been developing, he would rarely be a top option in the passing game.

I agree with what you're saying although it's not often I have great things to say about McDaniels so don't ruin it

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Love Edelperson's fire but he isn't a big money player. Amendola isn't either. Edelperson is a good punt guy, should get Dave Maggette money, but this team is going nowhere if Edelperson is their #1 or #2 receiver

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

This is what he can do when he is healthy. Hopefully this year isn't a anomaly in that category.

 

[ripatsfan91]

How much do you think he ll get in his contract next year? Maybe 4 years for 20 million with 10 guaranteed?

 

[supafly]

How much do you think he ll get in his contract next year? Maybe 4 years for 20 million with 10 guaranteed?

In his dreams he'll get that kind of offer....

He'll most likely go from making 700k this year to making 3-4x that kind of money. Something in the 2 to 2.5/3 million range AAV.

He's looking at the kind of deal that a guy like Emmanual Sanders is, but suddenly shooting his slot production up to a 5 million dollar AAV deal in the sense of Wes Welker isn't going to happen.

I'd have to think that something like a 3 yr/ 8 million dollar deal is much more likely, and that seems to be the general consensus around here aside from one or two opinions that I've seen on par with your prediction. We'll have to see what happens.

The popular thinking from outside GMs will probably be that N.England had no other choice but to go to Edelman due to their lousy WR situation this year. On top of that he has a pretty extensive injury history, and slot receivers aren't really making that much money these days. If someone as proven as Wes Welker is only making 5 million a year on a 2 yr/10 million dollar deal, I'm not sure why we should expect Julian Edelman to double his total after one "good" year (certainly not great in NFL terms for receivers).

 

[RIpats88]

In the Welker-less loss to the Ravens, Edelman was arguably, at worst, the third-best pass catcher on the field at any given time (after Moss and maybe Faulk).

By the end of the 2010 season, you had GRONK, Prisoner, Branch, Welker, and Woodhead, all of whom were better catchers than Edelman.

I'm not saying that O'Brien couldn't have done better in terms of developing Minitron. I'm merely saying that even if he had been developing, he would rarely be a top option in the passing game.

In 2011 we were DESPERATE to find a 3rdWR...so much so that wesigned tiquan underwood to play that role after the failures of price and ochocinco

Yet edelman was never considered as an option...2010 I can understand as we were using Tateas our #3

 

[UK_Pat37]

Edelman is two receptions ahead of Welker and just 6 yards off of him in yardage.

All those thinking Welker should have been paid elite money look really stupid right now.

 

[PatsFan2]

Edelman is two receptions ahead of Welker and just 6 yards off of him in yardage.

All those thinking Welker should have been paid elite money look really stupid right now.

Welker - Edelman > Armendola - Edelman.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Welker - Edelman > Armendola - Edelman.

I agree, but I don't think you're getting my point.

Look at their production and compare...was Welker really worth the elite money some felt we should have paid him? Or was he worth exactly what we valued him at?

What he wound up with combined with the receivers matching/bettering his current stats, shows more than ever our evaluation was correct.

 

[PatsFan2]

I agree, but I don't think you're getting my point.

Look at their production and compare...was Welker really worth the elite money some felt we should have paid him? Or was he worth exactly what we valued him at?

What he wound up with combined with the receivers matching/bettering his current stats, shows more than ever our evaluation was correct.

On this team Welker would be #1 WR on Denver he is #3 don't let his stats fool you he woud have had more yards if he was here. Remember Denver's #1 WR already have 1000yds receiving WR #2 is is about 39 yards from 1000yds. And their TE who is currently injured can pull his own weight. Would we be a better Team with I think so. We probably woukd have won Two of those three games we lost.

 

[Ivan]

Edelman is two receptions ahead of Welker and just 6 yards off of him in yardage.

All those thinking Welker should have been paid elite money look really stupid right now.

Wes Welker played like a HOF player for 6 years in New England, only Fitzgerald and Johnson put up numbers like his, he deserved elite money but didn't get it because of his age and position, as well as the new realities of free agency. What is stupid is thinking he is not a great player or deserving of elite status.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Wes Welker played like a HOF player for 6 years in New England, only Fitzgerald and Johnson put up numbers like his, he deserved elite money but didn't get it because of his age and position, as well as the new realities of free agency. What is stupid is thinking he is not a great player or deserving of elite status.

"Deserve" has got nothing to do with it.

 

[Brady6]

Edelman is two receptions ahead of Welker and just 6 yards off of him in yardage.

All those thinking Welker should have been paid elite money look really stupid right now.

Who said anything about elite money? People suggested we should have paid the $300,000 more for Welker than we did for Danny Amendola and if you ask me those people look pretty damn brilliant right now seeing Welker has twice the receptions, almost double the receiving yards and nine times the touchdowns as Amendola. Whether Welker resigned or not Edelman would have been here, actually in hindsight the smartest move likely would have been to keep Welker for the two more years at $6 million per and retain Edelman long term and

 

[Snake Eyes]

Who said anything about elite money? People suggested we should have paid the $300,000 more for Welker than we did for Danny Amendola and if you ask me those people look pretty damn brilliant right now seeing Welker has twice the receptions, almost double the receiving yards and nine times the touchdowns as Amendola. Whether Welker resigned or not Edelman would have been here, actually in hindsight the smartest move likely would have been to keep Welker for the two more years at $6 million per and retain Edelman long term and

Welker currently plays on probably the most stacked offense in the league, I don't think you can extrapolate what his production would have been here based on what it is in Denver.

 

[PatsFan2]

Welker currently plays on probably the most stacked offense in the league, I don't think you can extrapolate what his production would have been here based on what it is in Denver.

Good points none of our WR' are near the level of Thomas and Decker...we can only hope they develop half as good.

 

[Ivan]

"Deserve" has got nothing to do with it.

It does when you are talking about whether or not a player is "elite" and by all possible evaluations of production the player is "elite." Other factors come into play when it comes down to contracts but even Welker's detractors were saying they would sign him for 3/27, and that's elite money, as was the Patriots paying him 9.5 for one season.

 

[Brady6]

Welker currently plays on probably the most stacked offense in the league, I don't think you can extrapolate what his production would have been here based on what it is in Denver.

While I agree with you personally the case could be made that the 2013 Broncos offense equates to the 2011 Patriots in terms of offensive options in the offense.

Option 1: Gronkowski = D. Thomas
Option 2: Welker = Welker
Option 3: Hernandez = Decker
Option 4: Branch = J. Thomas

Welker had 122 receptions, 1569 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in 2011 so I think that is somewhat indicative of Welker declining at this later stage of his career.