Manning to 49ers?

[RobertWeathers]

Why? Because you say so? You seriously expect him to go from 34 to 36 by not taking a snap for 20 months, switch teams, systems and teammates, and just not miss a beat?
I think that is very naive.

If healthy, I expect Peyton to have a very good year as long as he has a talent assortment of receivers to throw to. You're making it sound like he'll be the second-coming of Steve Grogan.

Once again Manning only exceeded 450 in his career year, and hit it in his second best year. How many QBs are having one of their top 3 seasons:
1) At age 36
2) After sitting out a year
3) After changing teams

If Peyton is healthy and his arm strength is 95% where is was, because of his physical conditioning, worth ethic and ability to pick up an offense along with have talented players to throw to, I expect him to have a very good year. If we were talking about a run of the mill QB, then no.

Again, irrelevant to this discussion. The numbers other QBs put up because they throw as much as Manning doesn't change what Manning does.

I don't understand. I made the opening statement of saying that Peyton would do very well in SF statically and that I would take him for 2 years over most of his peers who played in pass-happy 2011. What is not relevant?

 

[RobertWeathers]

By the way, 4500 yards would be the 3rd highest total of his career, 33 TDs would be the 2nd highest total.
He has thrown for 4500 yards 3 of 13 years (23%) and 30 TDs 6 of 13 years (46%).

Meh. At 34 years old he threw 4700yds and 31 TDs for a team that it turns out wasn't really that good. If hes healthy and his arm strength is back he'll be fine.

It seems silly to expect him to exceed those at 36 years old in his first season in a new offense with new receivers he has never worked with while recovering from an injury and having missed all of the previous season. But I guess Ty Warren could come back and have the best year of his life next year too. Anything is possible I guess.

The lovable Brett Favre did it and I'd put the two on close to an even plane skill-wise. Favre was healthy and your point is noted.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He isn't going to be close to 95% of the player he was before the injury because he has gotten 2 years older, hasn't been on the field for a year + and will be working in a new offense with new weapons that he has no history with.

The statement was 95% of what he was, it was 95% healthy.
At 95% healthy with all of those other factors he will be lucky to be 75% of the player he was.

Cutcliffe: Manning's Arm Strength Is Back - Sports News Story - KERO Bakersfield

Could be PM's spin doctors at work here but everything I have read say that his arm strength is gradually improving.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Even with your disdain for Ryan, the reality is that Manning's not clearly better than about 10 QBs in the NFL right now, putting him somewhere around #22 in those terms. He could be better than some of those 10, he could be worse than some that I didn't put on the list, but he's coming in on the "definitely, right now" list at about #22, and he's fading while players like Newton are theoretically rising.

We do not agree that 10 Qbs are "clearly" better. We agree that there are about 6 better and hes even with about 4-5.

Outside of the division, that's a pretty tough schedule for Peyton, Mighty Peyton to have to work against.

A challenging schedule but PM always finds ways of putting up meaningless yards. ;-).

 

[WhiZa]

Why is that the right thing?

Of all the teams he visited Arizona would give him the best chance at success individually and organizationally. IMO he doesn't set that as a priority. He is just looking for a little more money.

 

[Ring 6]

Cutcliffe: Manning's Arm Strength Is Back - Sports News Story - KERO Bakersfield

Could be PM's spin doctors at work here but everything I have read say that his arm strength is gradually improving.

That is consistent with my opinion. If he is 95% healthy, due to missing a year, being 2 years older, changing teams, offenses and schemes, working with players he has never worked with a 95% healthy Manning will be 75% of the player we saw in 2010.

 

[Ring 6]

If healthy, I expect Peyton to have a very good year as long as he has a talent assortment of receivers to throw to. You're making it sound like he'll be the second-coming of Steve Grogan.

All I did was describe his age and situaiton. Imply what you want, but those are all facts.

If Peyton is healthy and his arm strength is 95% where is was, because of his physical conditioning, worth ethic and ability to pick up an offense along with have talented players to throw to, I expect him to have a very good year. If we were talking about a run of the mill QB, then no.

All that bs rhetoric aside, you are expecting him to have one of the best years of his career (looks like it would add up to his 2nd best) at 36 years old after missing a year, with less talent around him than he is accustomer to while changing teams.
If you said that all the rhetoric listed above made you think that he had a chance to work through the obvious challenges he is facing and by the end of 2012 getting somewhere close to where he left off in 2012 you having the starting point of a debate. To say you expect him to walk in and be as effective as any year of his career other than his best, is simply closing your eyes to reality and hoping.

I don't understand. I made the opening statement of saying that Peyton would do very well in SF statically and that I would take him for 2 years over most of his peers who played in pass-happy 2011. What is not relevant?

You made the opening statement that he would score 450 points, the equal of his 2nd best career year.
This statement was that QBs are throwing more now.
That is entirely irrelevant to how Manning 2012 will compare to all of his other seasons when he was throwing as much 10 years ago as other QBs now. The pass happy offense that has spread through the league has been in Indy for a very long time. Therefore, irrelevant.

 

[Ring 6]

Meh. At 34 years old he threw 4700yds and 31 TDs for a team that it turns out wasn't really that good. If hes healthy and his arm strength is back he'll be fine.

He had much better recievers. He has missed a year and had a crippling injury.
We really were never discussing accumulating numbers, the discussing started with your claim of 450 points.

The lovable Brett Favre did it and I'd put the two on close to an even plane skill-wise. Favre was healthy and your point is noted.

That is your argument? If someone ever did it thats proof anyone will do it?
Besides, Favre never sat out a year. You seem to think that a year not playing football doesn't affect a QB. We already saw it affect a better one than Manning (and in his prime coming off his career year) in 2009. You can't just dismiss that matter.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That is consistent with my opinion. If he is 95% healthy, due to missing a year, being 2 years older, changing teams, offenses and schemes, working with players he has never worked with a 95% healthy Manning will be 75% of the player we saw in 2010.

A 20% regression off of a 4700 33 TD season is a 3800 yd 26 TD year.

Is that what you expect him to produce?

If so, that is a fine season.

How else do you wish to project and quantify how well PM will play in 2012 IF HEALTHY?

 

[Ring 6]

A 20% regression off of a 4700 33 TD season is a 3800 yd 26 TD year.

Is that what you expect him to produce?

If so, that is a fine season.

How else do you wish to project and quantify how well PM will play in 2012 IF HEALTHY?

That is if he is healthy. Actually its 25%, so its 3525 and 25
He also threw 17 picks, so 25% more is 21.

2011 Mark Sanchez 3474 26 18

Are you sure you want to push your argument in this direction.

Besides it isn't about accumulating stats.
The Colts had their worst season in years in 2010, and Manning threw mpore often and less efficiently. Taking a yardage total in a vaccuum and trying to use that as the basis of your argument that started as he will have the second best year of his career in an offense with less talent at age 36 after missing a year is extremely weak, and even that doesnt look good for your side.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You made the opening statement that he would score 450 points, the equal of his 2nd best career year.

When comparing to a much lesser QB like Alex Smith, it is absolutely attainable.

This statement was that QBs are throwing more now.
That is entirely irrelevant to how Manning 2012 will compare to all of his other seasons when he was throwing as much 10 years ago as other QBs now. The pass happy offense that has spread through the league has been in Indy for a very long time. Therefore, irrelevant.

Peyton has led the league in attempts twice in 14 seasons. He's thrown a lot no question.

Bundling in PM stats from 1998-2010 is nice to look at but I don't think is the end-all-be-all metric to determine how much success he will have IF HEALTHY in SF.

I think taking a look at PMs numbers from 2010 at 34 years old is just as relevant if not moreso.

Brady rule, receiver rules etc were not in effect/enforced really from 1998 to 2004 and almost unchallenged in 2011.

They are in 2010 when he had an outstanding statistical season.

 

[Ring 6]

When comparing to a much lesser QB like Alex Smith, it is absolutely attainable.

That makes absolutely no sense. You think that Manning will score the 2nd most points he ever has because of how good Alex Smith is?

Peyton has led the league in attempts twice in 14 seasons. He's thrown a lot no question.

Bundling in PM stats from 1998-2010 is nice to look at but I don't think is the end-all-be-all metric to determine how much success he will have IF HEALTHY in SF.

I think taking a look at PMs numbers from 2010 at 34 years old is just as relevant if not moreso.

Brady rule, receiver rules etc were not in effect/enforced really from 1998 to 2004 and almost unchallenged in 2011.

They are in 2010 when he had an outstanding statistical season.

What in the world are you talking about?
You argued that Manning will have what amounts to his 2nd or 3rd best year of his career after switching teams, missing a year and turning 36, and THIS part of your argument was that he would because the league is pass happy.
He threw the ball 679 times in 2010. That is almost a record.

If you are now reducing your argument about how well he will play to the hope that they will pass 50 times a game so he can accumulate a lot of yards, I'm sorry, I am talking about the quality of play of a QB not how likely he is to accumulate phony statistics.

 

[Deus Irae]

We do not agree that 10 Qbs are "clearly" better. We agree that there are about 6 better and hes even with about 4-5.

You misread my post, even though you quoted it:

the reality is that Manning's not clearly better than about 10 QBs in the NFL right now, putting him somewhere around #22 in those terms.

You're actually agreeing with me when you give your answer here. You had it at about 25 teams with a definitely lesser QB. I was just noting that it's somewhere around 22, because that's about 1/3 of the league.

A challenging schedule but PM always finds ways of putting up meaningless yards. ;-).

Well, time will tell us how he is, but I'm not worried about him putting up empty yards and, if he tries that against some of those defenses, he'll take a pounding. I don't think he'll enjoy that in the cold winds of San Francisco.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He had much better recievers. He has missed a year and had a crippling injury.
We really were never discussing accumulating numbers, the discussing started with your claim of 450 points.

Comparing it to Alex Smith and how PM can produce 4 points more per game and Smith is my point.

That is your argument? If someone ever did it thats proof anyone will do it?

Your proof is no one has done it. Does that mean no one can do it? Circular argument.

Besides, Favre never sat out a year. You seem to think that a year not playing football doesn't affect a QB.

But without an offseason program or missing a chunk of TC with the Vikes, he did pretty well in 2009. I think you underestimate a HoF QBs ability to grasp and offense an be productive in any system.

Anyway if a healthy PM who we all know will bust his butt to learn the offense and get on the same page with his receivers, I would not be shocked if he had a very good season.

We already saw it affect a better one than Manning (and in his prime coming off his career year) in 2009. You can't just dismiss that matter.

Yep and TB was 4 years younger. Excellent point.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That makes absolutely no sense. You think that Manning will score the 2nd most points he ever has because of how good Alex Smith is?

How does it not make sense? If Alex Smith was QB of an offense that scored 380 points why is it illogical to assume that PM will score more? He is simply a better QB.

What in the world are you talking about?
You argued that Manning will have what amounts to his 2nd or 3rd best year of his career after switching teams, missing a year and turning 36, and THIS part of your argument was that he would because the league is pass happy.
He threw the ball 679 times in 2010. That is almost a record.

If you are now reducing your argument about how well he will play to the hope that they will pass 50 times a game so he can accumulate a lot of yards, I'm sorry, I am talking about the quality of play of a QB not how likely he is to accumulate phony statistics.

I'm not really hung-up on pass-attempts, Andy as I do not think that they are an indicator of good QB play. What they are an indicator of are those of a QB who's team needed him to pass because their defense was lousy and they did not have a running game. With that said, if PM needs to throw it 600 times in SF, he will put up lots of yards and TDs.

However, I think that if healthy, with SF's defense, running game, top TE and improving Crabtree, PM has the surrounding talent to have a very good and effcient season in SF.

 

[Ring 6]

Comparing it to Alex Smith and how PM can produce 4 points more per game and Smith is my point.

Then you must be underating Alex Smith, because Manning only did so twice in his career with better players around him.

Your proof is no one has done it. Does that mean no one can do it? Circular argument.

No. My proof is that:
1) 36 year old QBs are normally worse than they were in their prime
2) QBs and players who miss a full season are rarely, if ever, as good when they return as they were when they left
3) He will have less talent surrounding him than in most of the years he couldn't put up 450 points
4) He only did it twice in an offense that evolved around him with players he played with for years and now you expect him to do it in a brand new offense with guys he hasn't met yet.
Not circular at all. Perhaps your missing this point is why you are still arguing

But without an offseason program or missing a chunk of TC with the Vikes, he did pretty well in 2009. I think you underestimate a HoF QBs ability to grasp and offense an be productive in any system.

But he wasn't off a year. You have STILL not addressed that.

Anyway if a healthy PM who we all know will bust his butt to learn the offense and get on the same page with his receivers, I would not be shocked if he had a very good season.

A little while ago you expected him to have the 2nd best season of his life...............

Yep and TB was 4 years younger. Excellent point.

It is the heart of the matter. If this conversation was happening a year ago, it would be entirely different. You are having the same one you would have had a year ago, and just chooising to ignore the impact of not being on a football field for a year and half has.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You misread my post, even though you quoted it:



You're actually agreeing with me when you give your answer here. You had it at about 25 teams with a definitely lesser QB. I was just noting that it's somewhere around 22, because that's about 1/3 of the league.

Yep. I did misread it. We do agree.

Well, time will tell us how he is, but I'm not worried about him putting up empty yards and, if he tries that against some of those defenses, he'll take a pounding. I don't think he'll enjoy that in the cold winds of San Francisco.

Meh. The only real bad outdoor cities he'll face in 2012 are Foxboro, Chicago and Meadowlands and it depends on when. All the rest are domes or SF (which the wind can be a factor no question.

 

[Ring 6]

How does it not make sense? If Alex Smith was QB of an offense that scored 380 points why is it illogical to assume that PM will score more? He is simply a better QB.

Do you expect them to run the same offense? How do those numbers generate in one style translate to another.
Again, you are taking a QB walking into the most challenging situation he has in 10+ years, older and inactive for a year and a half, and have one of the best years of his career.
Your argumnet appears to be that Manning is way, way better than the 380 points Smiith put up last year, when in fact he has not been except for a few exceptions.





I'm not really hung-up on pass-attempts, Andy as I do not think that they are an indicator of good QB play. What they are an indicator of are those of a QB who's team needed him to pass because their defense was lousy and they did not have a running game. With that said, if PM needs to throw it 600 times in SF, he will put up lots of yards and TDs.

However, I think that if healthy, with SF's defense, running game, top TE and improving Crabtree, PM has the surrounding talent to have a very good and effcient season in SF.[/QUOTE]

How can you not be 'hung up on pass attempts' when this part of your argument was that it was beause the league is pass happy now? This part of your argument is all about pass attempts.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That is if he is healthy. Actually its 25%, so its 3525 and 25
He also threw 17 picks, so 25% more is 21.

2011 Mark Sanchez 3474 26 18

Are you sure you want to push your argument in this direction.

Do you?

95%-20%- 75%. Regardless, I'm not the one saying he'll be 75% less of a player. You are. The point is that he'll still put up yards and TDs.

Besides it isn't about accumulating stats.

I agree. It's not. But there is no other way of quantifying his potential production level.

The Colts had their worst season in years in 2010, and Manning threw mpore often and less efficiently. Taking a yardage total in a vaccuum and trying to use that as the basis of your argument that started as he will have the second best year of his career in an offense with less talent at age 36 after missing a year is extremely weak, and even that doesnt look good for your side.

The basis of my argument is that after a year off and assuming he is healthy and a full training camp and the talent SF has, he is much better Qb than Alex Smith and their offense will be more productive.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

If Manning goes to the 49ers, they're clearly the NFC favorites and maybe the Super Bowl favorites. They lost in overtime to the team that beat the Pats and a hobbled Peyton Manning is better than Alex Smith. Manning will have all the support he will need to go deep into the playoffs and a cakewalk schedule. If he wants a ring, he should sign with the 49ers. They're the most complete team out of the 3 teams.