Manning to 49ers?

[RobertWeathers]

Do you expect them to run the same offense? How do those numbers generate in one style translate to another.
Again, you are taking a QB walking into the most challenging situation he has in 10+ years, older and inactive for a year and a half, and have one of the best years of his career.
Your argumnet appears to be that Manning is way, way better than the 380 points Smiith put up last year, when in fact he has not been except for a few exceptions.

Under reasonable conditions, I think guys like Brady, PM, Brees can walk into any offense with talented receivers and good coaching and be highly productive. Guys like Smith can't and need more handling.

How can you not be 'hung up on pass attempts' when this part of your argument was that it was beause the league is pass happy now? This part of your argument is all about pass attempts.

I call out pass attempts as a vehicle used to put up numbers. If he throws 490 times but puts up 4200yds, that tells me hes doing a good job. I really don't care. My point is that if he has THE EXACT SAME year as 2010, people will say the offense was better with him under center than Alex Smith. Now, as we all know it doesn't make them a better team. That is a separate issue.

 

[Ring 6]

Under reasonable conditions, I think guys like Brady, PM, Brees can walk into any offense with talented receivers and good coaching and be highly productive. Guys like Smith can't and need more handling.




I call out pass attempts as a vehicle used to put up numbers. If he throws 490 times but puts up 4200yds, that tells me hes doing a good job. I really don't care. My point is that if he has THE EXACT SAME year as 2010, people will say the offense was better with him under center than Alex Smith. Now, as we all know it doesn't make them a better team. That is a separate issue.

I'm not sure what your argument has turned into with all of this stuff, but the one you started with that I objected to is that the 49ers will score 450 points next year if they sign Manning.

I based my arguments on fact and historical performance yours now seems to be that you expect no dropoff for him missing a year, being 36 years old and going to a new team with lesser weapons, that he is really smart and will work really hard and you don't like Alex Smith.

I think we are done here.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Then you must be underating Alex Smith, because Manning only did so twice in his career with better players around him.

No. I don't think so. Alex Smith had a career year last year. I've always felt that if PM had a running game, he'd have even better numbers. The fact that he put up what he did when team KNEW he was passing is astounding.

No. My proof is that:
1) 36 year old QBs are normally worse than they were in their prime
2) QBs and players who miss a full season are rarely, if ever, as good when they return as they were when they left
3) He will have less talent surrounding him than in most of the years he couldn't put up 450 points
4) He only did it twice in an offense that evolved around him with players he played with for years and now you expect him to do it in a brand new offense with guys he hasn't met yet.
Not circular at all. Perhaps your missing this point is why you are still arguing

Andy- I acknowledge your points and they are outstanding ones.

However, in 2010 the Colts put up 435 points without a running game and their 3rd leading receiver was Jacob Tamme. I just don't put a lot of stock in a year layoff. Because of his talent-level and football acumen, as long as he is healthy, he has the talent in SF to produce at a high-level.

Then you must be underating Alex Smith, because Manning only did so twice in his career with better players around him.

No. I don't think so. Alex Smith had a career year last year. I've always felt that if PM had a running game, he'd have even better numbers. The fact that he put up what he did when team KNEW he was passing is astounding.

But he wasn't off a year. You have STILL not addressed that.

I address it by saying that I don't think its that big of a deal if he comes back healthy. Seeing that there are a number of very good NFL personnel guys wanting him, I'm not the only one.

A little while ago you expected him to have the 2nd best season of his life...............

I expect him to have a year that is consistent with the last 3 seasons.

It is the heart of the matter. If this conversation was happening a year ago, it would be entirely different. You are having the same one you would have had a year ago, and just chooising to ignore the impact of not being on a football field for a year and half has.

I don't ignore it, Andy. I think he can overcome it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm not sure what your argument has turned into with all of this stuff, but the one you started with that I objected to is that the 49ers will score 450 points next year if they sign Manning.

I based my arguments on fact and historical performance yours now seems to be that you expect no dropoff for him missing a year, being 36 years old and going to a new team with lesser weapons, that he is really smart and will work really hard and you don't like Alex Smith.

I think we are done here.

I like Alex Smith. He just isn't Peyton Manning.

I guess I'm in the same camp as Jeff Ireland, John Elway, Jim Harbaugh and Ken Wisenhut and FO guys from the Titans who know PM potential a helluva lot better than you do.

But nice debating with you as always.

 

[Ring 6]

No. I don't think so. Alex Smith had a career year last year. I've always felt that if PM had a running game, he'd have even better numbers. The fact that he put up what he did when team KNEW he was passing is astounding.




Andy- I acknowledge your points and they are outstanding ones.

However, in 2010 the Colts put up 435 points without a running game and their 3rd leading receiver was Jacob Tamme. I just don't put a lot of stock in a year layoff. Because of his talent-level and football acumen, as long as he is healthy, he has the talent in SF to produce at a high-level.






No. I don't think so. Alex Smith had a career year last year. I've always felt that if PM had a running game, he'd have even better numbers. The fact that he put up what he did when team KNEW he was passing is astounding.




I address it by saying that I don't think its that big of a deal if he comes back healthy. Seeing that there are a number of very good NFL personnel guys wanting him, I'm not the only one.




I expect him to have a year that is consistent with the last 3 seasons.







I don't ignore it, Andy. I think he can overcome it.

OK then lets just leave it that we totally disagree on the major points of this discussion. I can't imagine there is any point in continuing it.

 

[Deus Irae]

Steve Young thinks it's going to happen:

It is the best opportunity for Peyton Manning. They knew it, and they waited for the wannabes to exhaust themselves, and then they came in right at the end, and that’s why I think they’ll probably land him at this point.”

Steve Young: Harbaugh threw with Peyton, probably will sign him | ProFootballTalk

 

[Ring 6]

I like Alex Smith. He just isn't Peyton Manning.

I guess I'm in the same camp as Jeff Ireland, John Elway, Jim Harbaugh and Ken Wisenhut and FO guys from the Titans who know PM potential a helluva lot better than you do.

But nice debating with you as always.

I didn't say they shouldn't try to sign him, but you are arguing he will put up numbers as good as the 2nd or 3rd best season.
So your bs argument that anyone trying to sign him agrees with you is just that, bs.

Its like arguing Reggie Wayne will have a career year then saying BB agrees with your because he tried to sign him.

 

[serifyn]

Biggest game of 2012? 49ers @ Patriots.


Manning Vs. Brady

Moss vs. Lloyd

Davis vs. Gronkowski

Drama much?

 

[RobertWeathers]

I didn't say they shouldn't try to sign him, but you are arguing he will put up numbers as good as the 2nd or 3rd best season.
So your bs argument that anyone trying to sign him agrees with you is just that, bs.

Wrong. BS is me saying he will put up 4500yds and 33 TDs and the 49ers will score 450 points when it's never happened nor is there a potential of it happening.

Its like arguing Reggie Wayne will have a career year then saying BB agrees with your because he tried to sign him.

Why isn't it reasonable to suppose Wayne has the potential to have a 80 catch 1100 yd year in this offense when GoAT is throwing to him? Not sure what the Pats offer was to Wayne but seems that it was close enough for Wayne to strongly consider it. That means BB thought he had the potential of being highly productive here.

When football people that know a helluva lot more than me and are respected in the league as decent personnel guys that will pay PM a lot of money for production, you're damn right I will bring them into the discussion.

 

[Ring 6]

Wrong. BS is me saying he will put up 4500yds and 33 TDs and the 49ers will score 450 points when it's never happened nor is there a potential of it happening.

Or when you expect it to happen with less talent than he had when he didnt reach those numbers at age 36 after missing a year.

Why isn't it reasonable to suppose Wayne has the potential to have a 80 catch 1100 yd year in this offense when GoAT is throwing to him?

First of all that isn't a career year, and secondly you totally missed the point...again.
The Wayne analogy was in response to your contention that a team interested in a player proves they will have a career year.

Not sure what the Pats offer was to Wayne but seems that it was close enough for Wayne to strongly consider it. That means BB thought he had the potential of being highly productive here.

When football people that know a helluva lot more than me and are respected in the league as decent personnel guys that will pay PM a lot of money for production, you're damn right I will bring them into the discussion.

You are bringing them in as a Strwman.
Your argument is that Manning will be the same player he was 3 years ago despite his age, injury, lack of familiarity with his new team, and inactivity.
You argue that this is true because 'football people' want him.
This is an incorrect Strawman. The fact that teams are interested him only shows they want him as thier QB not that they believe he is the same QB he was 3 years ago.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Or when you expect it to happen with less talent than he had when he didnt reach those numbers at age 36 after missing a year.

Take a long, hard look at that 2010 Colts offense, Andy. Clark went on IR week 7. Collie, Tamme, Blair White? I think Garcon is overrated but thats besides the point.Their running game was awful as PM had to throw 8000 times for them to even have a chance.

First of all that isn't a career year, and secondly you totally missed the point...again.
The Wayne analogy was in response to your contention that a team interested in a player proves they will have a career year.

I got your point. My point is that when quality NFL personnel folks are looking a giving big money to a player, that means the player is immensely talented and they think that they can produce for their team. See Wayne/BB.

You are bringing them in as a Strwman.
Your argument is that Manning will be the same player he was 3 years ago despite his age, injury, lack of familiarity with his new team, and inactivity.

He won't be the same player, just like 1997 Elway wasn't 1987 Elway but I believe his production to be along those lines yes.

You argue that this is true because 'football people' want him. This is an incorrect Strawman. The fact that teams are interested him only shows they want him as thier QB not that they believe he is the same QB he was 3 years ago.

I think the contract that he gets will disprove your theory. He will be paid close to Brady and Brees in value which states the production that they expect out of PM year 1.

 

[Ring 6]

Take a long, hard look at that 2010 Colts offense, Andy. Clark went on IR week 7. Collie, Tamme, Blair White? I think Garcon is overrated but thats besides the point.Their running game was awful as PM had to throw 8000 times for them to even have a chance.

Its not 2010, its a number he only achieved twice in his career.

I got your point. My point is that when quality NFL personnel folks are looking a giving big money to a player, that means the player is immensely talented and they think that they can produce for their team. See Wayne/BB.

That does nothing to prove your point. Players get signed because they can help a team. Duh. That doesnt prove that because someone wants Manning they believe he is the same guy he was 3 years ago.

He won't be the same player, just like 1997 Elway wasn't 1987 Elway but I believe his production to be along those lines yes.

What does that even mean? Understand you are saying you expect the 49er offense to be more effective than every offense Peyton Manning ever has run except for 1 season.

I think the contract that he gets will disprove your theory. He will be paid close to Brady and Brees in value which states the production that they expect out of PM year 1.

Its not a theory. It is a fact that your argument that because they want him means he won't miss a beat is ridiculous. What they pay him is not a referendum on what they expect his production to be or that they expect him to not miss a beat, it is what it will take to sign him because he is the best FA QB on the market. There is a large gap between best FA QB on the market and what Manning was 3 years ago, just as there is a large gap between what he is today and what he was 3 years ago.

As I said, it is silly to debate, because you keep changing your argument and adding rhetorical commentary to overlook the fact that players who miss an entire season due to injury do not pick up where they left off and that aging players are not what they used to be.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Its not 2010, its a number he only achieved twice in his career.

I'll accept your response as refusing to acknowledge that PM QB'ed a crap offense to 438 points at 34 years old.

That does nothing to prove your point. Players get signed because they can help a team. Duh. That doesnt prove that because someone wants Manning they believe he is the same guy he was 3 years ago.

Childish.

I think I've said a few times before that PM is not the same Qb he was in 2008. In the right situation with the right talent around him, he can still be outstanding. That is why teams are chasing him.

What does that even mean? Understand you are saying you expect the 49er offense to be more effective than every offense Peyton Manning ever has run except for 1 season.

Ok does it help my argument by saying the 49ers will score more than 416 points which is 36 more than the 49ers offense last year?

Its not a theory. It is a fact that your argument that because they want him means he won't miss a beat is ridiculous. What they pay him is not a referendum on what they expect his production to be or that they expect him to not miss a beat, it is what it will take to sign him because he is the best FA QB on the market. There is a large gap between best FA QB on the market and what Manning was 3 years ago, just as there is a large gap between what he is today and what he was 3 years ago.

Wrong. If they didn't think he'd put up big numbers, they wouldn't sign him to big money. They may tweak the contract and mitigate their risk somehow but that will be proven out. Notice how Alex Smith has not been extended? It because they can't agree on a contract and the 49ers think Peyton will be better in their offense.

As I said, it is silly to debate, because you keep changing your argument and adding rhetorical commentary to overlook the fact that players who miss an entire season due to injury do not pick up where they left off and that aging players are not what they used to be.

I've changed nothing in my argument. I've been pretty consistent in saying PM will produce at a high-level with the 49ers and that I don't think a year layoff will be as major of a factor as you lay out. Will his timing be off in TC and some pre season games? Of course. With his timing still off for MAYBE the 1st couple of games he'll still put up very good numbers because he is a immensely talented QB.

Anyway, good debate. We have different views thats all. Go Pats!

 

[Ring 6]

I'll accept your response as refusing to acknowledge that PM QB'ed a crap offense to 438 points at 34 years old.







Childish.

I think I've said a few times before that PM is not the same Qb he was in 2008. In the right situation with the right talent around him, he can still be outstanding. That is why teams are chasing him.




Ok does it help my argument by saying the 49ers will score more than 416 points which is 36 more than the 49ers offense last year?




Wrong. If they didn't think he'd put up big numbers, they wouldn't sign him to big money. They may tweak the contract and mitigate their risk somehow but that will be proven out. Notice how Alex Smith has not been extended? It because they can't agree on a contract and the 49ers think Peyton will be better in their offense.



I've changed nothing in my argument. I've been pretty consistent in saying PM will produce at a high-level with the 49ers and that I don't think a year layoff will be as major of a factor as you lay out. Will his timing be off in TC and some pre season games? Of course. With his timing still off for MAYBE the 1st couple of games he'll still put up very good numbers because he is a immensely talented QB.

Anyway, good debate. We have different views thats all. Go Pats!

Given that you have moved on to the insultingly sarcastic and name calling portion of your argument, I will exit here.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Given that you have moved on to the insultingly sarcastic and name calling portion of your argument, I will exit here.

Just realize that when you said, "duh" which was completely condescending, you struck first.

I said using "duh" was childish. I did not say you were childish. Totally different.

You are wrapped too tight at the axl my friend....

 

[BradyFTW!]

Take a look at his 2010 numbers and look at that list again. Every one of those QBS was better last year than Manning was in 2010. Now you're adding on a year off and the injury.

2010 was a rough year for him- they couldn't run the ball, the defense wasn't any good, and his receivers were in and out of the lineup with injuries. After Manning, that may have been the least talented team in the league, accounting for injuries. Assuming that he's in good health, I'd be surprised if he doesn't surpass those numbers this year, even with the year off and a new team, simply by virtue of having a half-decent team around him.

 

[Plunkett2Vataha]

I agree with your assessment. You really have to scrutinize the lineup from 2010 to see how wonderful a job Manning did with one of the least talented teams of his Colts tenure. I have no doubt he will be a huge upgrade over any of the incumbent Titans, Niners, or Broncos QBs.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I agree with your assessment. You really have to scrutinize the lineup from 2010 to see how wonderful a job Manning did with one of the least talented teams of his Colts tenure. I have no doubt he will be a huge upgrade over any of the incumbent Titans, Niners, or Broncos QBs.

It's a given he will be that even at 80%. And I wouldn't be surprised if offensive numbers don't slip back to pre lockout levels since defenses were more impacted by the lack of FA and teaching/coaching that the lockout represented across the board. I also don't expect that it will be a cake walk for Manning on any new team out of the gate because he is a perfectionist and his frustration with that 2010 Colts team at times was palpable.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Great Thread ...

Are we f*cked if Peyton signs with Tennessee and Alex with Miami? - 49erswebzone.com Forum