Re: Lomardi say the Patriots have to Franchise Cassel
Good point, but the problem then becomes that all potential suitors know that the Pats must trade Cassel in order to clear the cap space. That would definitely drive the asking price down....... [snipping a lot]
I'm not sure what the front office will do with this situation, but they do have a lot to consider.
I don't think this is neccessary true if we assume that there is more than 1 team interested in Cassel as a starting quarterback and that they are willing to give up value for him. Let's look at the decision tree that starts with the Patriots deciding to franchise him:
1) Patriots need to make the decision that Cassel is worth franchising with the opportunity cost of ~13 or 14 million in hard cap space.
2) Any signed offer sheet the Pats have to make the decision that 2 1st rounds picks PLUS ~13 or 14 million in 'found' cap space is more or less valuable than Matt Cassell and whatever the matching contract looks like.
This is the hardball version of the decision tree --- now let's look at it from a softer ball decision tree. Let's introduce Team A and Team B and stipulate that there are few starting quality quarterbacks available at any given time in the league.
Both Team A and B value finding a competent starting quarterback fairly highly. The cost of a competent starting QB is at least a first round pick or 5 to 8 million per year. A rookie can not be assumed to be competent in their first season (exceptions apply). IF Both A and B decide that Cassel is their preferred alternative they know that they will each have to give something up for him in some combination of cash, cap and picks. IF Team A approaches Cassel and the Pats and say 'You agreeable to signing with us at X per year, Y Guaranteed, for Z years and we'll give the Pats 1200 points in draft value instead of the 1800 points that 2 firsts would cost us' while their maximal willingness to pay might be the same contract and 1500 points of draft value. The discount/hardball only works if Team B (all else being equal) would be willing to give Cassel the same XYZ contract and 1350 draft value points to the Pats.
In an unconstrained auction with multiple bidders, the incentive is for the bidders to go near their maximum willingness to pay in their bids. Of course, this is not a completely unconstrained auction as the Pats would probably prefer to see Cassel not on the Bills or the Jets next year.
But the ability for any team to play hardball with the Pats is limited as the Pats will have other suitors for the valuable commodity of an NFL competent and young quarterback. Yeah, the Pats will have the incentive of clearing cap room but they have a valued and short supply commodity that multiple teams will want to have access to at a reasonable price.
.. sooner or later (just like a manning or a bardy or a favre) he'll have a bad day and the whole mood of the fickle fan will change ..
