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Lazy-Man's Method For Guessing Patriot's 1st 3 Picks.

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by IcyPatriot, Feb 15, 2006.

  1. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    It's the IT IS WHAT IT IS method.

    Get a somewhat consensus list of the top-100 players.

    Every name mentioned as a Patriot's pick in a draft site mock will be crossed off the list.

    The remaining players will be fair game....I will choose from them.:rolleyes:

    Just for fun....thought I'd give it a try...when was the last time any of these guys ever got even 1 of our top 3 picks right?:bricks:
  2. IndyKen

    IndyKen Rookie

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    You just might be on to something here....it's as good an angle as I've heard yet. Last year I jotted down over 30 names that had been bandied about as "good" candidates the Pats might draft. You guessed it....not one on my list was picked by BB & co.....:)
  3. mcsully

    mcsully Rookie

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    Actually last year Logan Mankins was a pick by one of the larger Draft coverage providers.. I forget who but I do remember people where saying " The patriots don't draft guards and LB with the 1st pick".. To funny..
  4. Mark Morse

    Mark Morse PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #15 Jersey

    I probably said it! Fact is BB didin't draft a Guard. He drafted a LT that projected as an OG. The first time he played OG was at the Senior Bowl!
  5. Feep_FLA

    Feep_FLA Rookie

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    The #21 pick will be a kicker from Ball State, Indiana. I predict. :rocker:
  6. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    Belichick has no actual pattern. People shouldn't try to read into things. Just because he HASN'T done something does not mean he won't.
  7. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    #75 Jersey

    I think Ty Warren was a predictable pick.

    There was speculation about trading up for DL, or getting Sullivan, but when they stayed, (and bumped up a notch or two), Warren was the DL available and they took him.
  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Seymour was a predicted pick. Wilfork was a predicted pick. Many even had Watson the week before the draft.

    Many of last year's draft choices were in the value lists developed here and at kffl.
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2006
  9. Pats67

    Pats67 Rookie

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    Truer words have never been spoken, or written in this case.
  10. Patriotic Fervor

    Patriotic Fervor Rookie

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    Wilfork was not a predicted pick! BB himself expressed surprise on that draft selection, saying, "We didn't think he would be available."

    There may have been a few (very few) who picked Watson, but given that the Pats just a year earlier had selected Graham with it's first pick, Watson, before the draft, as a first rounder by the Pats was not a consensus choice by the pigskin prognosticators.

    If you can point me to sources (note the plural!) that confirm what you've said, you'll have made a believer out of me.

    :)
  11. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    The lowest that I saw Big Vince on any of the Mocks or ratings was #12. I was surprised when he dropped below 15 and shocked when he was sitting at #21.

    I was wondering if something was wrong - injury- charature issue- something like that.
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There will never be a censensus prediction of bb's choice before the draft. However, that is NOT, NOT because his methods are unpredictable. bb and pioli do not focus on ONE player. Anyone who had a reasonable set of patriots value groups KNEW that Wilfork would be picked as soon as our turn came. If there was a surprise, it is that bb didn't trade up.

    So, maybe we are saying different things. No, the media prognosticators will not get the patriots picks right. HOWEVER, if you look at the posted value groupings of about 6-10 players for each grouping, you will find that there are those who do a great job of relicating bb's methods (in at least rounds 1-4), which is made extremely difficult because we do not have access to the patriot's scouting results (as we do for most everyone else). There were a couple of great jobs of groupings done last year.

    With regard to Graham, Most couldn't understand the pick at the time or after the pick. There were several sources (not your favorites no doubt) that had Watson on the list and as a rumored favorite, if available). But I am not trying to convince you, and have no reason to look back at the great predicitions on the two boards last year.









  13. Patriotic Fervor

    Patriotic Fervor Rookie

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    Where can I find these "value groupings"? I'm very interested....
  14. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    As others have said, the first round picks have been uppredictable.

    Seymour, Warren, Wilfork were all my picks when the pick came.
    Graham, I was 50-50 between him and Napolean Harris.

    OK, Watson took me completely by surprise. Mankins too although I liked him for us in a second round trade up.

    Our second round picks are the ones I never, ever predict.
  15. Patriotic Fervor

    Patriotic Fervor Rookie

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    So what you guys are saying is that when the Patriots are at their pick (like this year at 21, for example), you then choose from remaining stock (!) who they will pick?

    Lots of people can do that with a fair degree of accuracy.

    I was under the impression you, or others you might cite, actually had the foresight and prescience to make these picks before the draft!

    Ahh, that is a different beast altogether....
  16. gomezcat

    gomezcat It's SIR Moderator to you Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I believe Big Mike got it right with Ben Watson. Nobody got Ty Warren (although most expected one of the DTs to be picked) and Logan Mankins was missed by most of us. Vince Wilfork was expected to go higher than the Pats.

    I take it that Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and the other consensus top 10 picks are crossed off already, FBN?
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2006
  17. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    I'm 2 out of last 4. Pre-draft I was hoping for Daniel Graham and Vince Wilfork. I never in my wildest scenarios thought we'd pick Benjamin Watson - even if I thought TE I would have gone with Ben Troukpe (silly me!). I never even heard of Logan Mankins.
  18. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Your post here actually helps make my point...local fans are much better at predicting Patriots drafts than any of these "MOCK DRAFT SITES". I find their rational for their selections to be idiotic at best.

    Like when they say this is what they need so we'll pick this guy, this guy and that guy...bunch of crap usually.

    So anyways...perhaps we can compare our good posters here with the mock draft sites for all teams....say the 1st 3 rounds. If I'm right....I bet we win...and the why is very easy...simply because we know as much or more in some cases than these $$$ hungry draft sites.

    BTW: I don't make this post claiming I am a great draft picker....but to be honest...since I've been coming here I find that our own good mock draft people are just as good or better than the mock draft sites (FOR ALL 32 TEAMS).

    Except for the top 10-15 picks...check it out after the draft...and then pat (no pun intended) yourselves on the back...our mock drafts are pretty darn good if I say so myself.

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