Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[reflexblue]

The question isn't about if Wilson will become a good player.

The question is about could they have snatched him up in later rounds as (we assume). It seems that the general consensus is that they could have had him in the later rounds and use the pick on a OL, better athlete as a DB, etc.

However, I also think the Pats have proven that they do a good job of scouting other teams and projecting the needs of other teams.

My only conclusion is that the Pats felt another team or two really liked Wilson as much as they did and were also willing to "reach" for him as well.

This.......... probably could have picked him up a few rounds later. In the mean time there were some really good players on the board at 48 DB's DE's O.lineman, WR's etc. In fact i don't want to even know who was available i'd get sick. This is the yearly BB enigma.

 

[Ring 6]

When analyzing the seemingly strange second round for the Patriots--taking a player ranked as a Day Three guy at 48 and trading down for poor value--one needs to pay attention in future years not just to the play of Tavon Wilson, assuming he plays, which I think he will, but the play of the talented guys available at 48 that we passed on.

Like UConn's Reyes, the defensive lineman, taken at 49. Or another DB like Oklahoma's Jamell Fleming, another perfect fit for the Patriots.

I'm convinced taking another Wilson DB from Illinois wasn't merely a reach, it was a panic move. We totally screwed over the Ravens again in the first round by taking Hightower whom they obviously coveted, and perhaps Bill was worried that another team was going to do the same to us with Wilson.

I just think it was going to happen that high in the draft.

The probability is very high--of course impossible to prove--that Wilson is there for us at 62--or well beyond.

Wilson was a need pick but taken earlier than he needed to be. And I'm worried that Belichick is starting to internalize his own press about being a genius.

It's possible everyone was wrong about Wilson. It's possible teams had him ranked much higher than we were led to believe. Having in for a visit, as seven teams are reported to have done, shows a possible interest.

But I believe Belichick likes to stir the pot. I think he enjoyed seeing The Hair (Mel Kiper) rendered speechless. I know Ron Zook from my own sources thinks very highly of the player selected.

And yet...it was a reach. Better players were available for us at 48. And Belichick made a mistake, which I think will be proven in the next few years.

Chandler Jones--Dont'a Hightower--Kendall Reyes/Jamell Fleming. That's what we should have done. It hurts that we didn't get a better player at 48. If I'm wrong, it's likely the Patriots were in taking Wilson when he would very likely have around at 62.

But since the Patriots were apparently not going to keep 62, as events turned out, they were forced to go for the reach and take a player at an obvious HUGE need, safety.

Grade C. Same as Pete Prisco.

I'm curoius. How can you possibly know when he would still be there?
You are acting as if that is some type of exact science.
The fact that the projections about where he was picked were wrong, because he was picked at 48, tends to imply that whoever made the projection is wrong.
Are you really stating that you think and have enough evidence to conclude that 31 teams saqw him as a 6th rounder, and BB AND HIS STAFF looked at a player and saw the total opposite of everyone else and were too naive to know it?

 

[resdubwhite]

Ventrone is versatile and tough.

Thats the quote from the talking head on NFLN.

Not mine.

 

[hambone1818]

This.......... probably could have picked him up a few rounds later. In the mean time there were some really good players on the board at 48 DB's DE's O.lineman, WR's etc. In fact i don't want to even know who was available i'd get sick. This is the yearly BB enigma.

Yeah, because we know for a fact he would have been available later in the draft...oh, wait, we don't!

The Chargers drafted a safety with pick 49. They had also had Wilson in for a visit. Who's to say they weren't ready to pull the trigger?

And I say it again: these crazy 'reach' picks by Belichick have panned out, period. Mankins and Vollmer are the two that have been pointed out many times and both were massive successes. Obviously time will tell with Wilson but I like Belichick's analysis a bit more than Kiper and McShay.

 

[Deus Irae]

and ps: we obviously do know what they weren't comfortable with, or else they wouldn't have made the move at 48. Either that or they loved him so much that they didn't even hesitate about pulling the trigger at 48. One or the other.

Where they picked him does not prove their discomfort level as far as going back goes. It doesn't prove that they loved him at 48, either. It just proves that the circumstances, whatever they were, led them to make that move.

 

[Deus Irae]

Projected by who? The Kipers and McShay's of the world? Sorry but if your team is going off their analysis then you're probably not having very successful drafts.

IF another team drafts Wilson later in the second their fans would all be talking about what a reach it is...but that would be forgotten if he turns into a stud, the only absolutely, 100% fact is that their team drafted Wilson and he panned out. We don't know where other teams valued Wilson, only where a bunch of media 'pundits' had him...so I guess the questions is: why would anyone trust Kiper and McShay more than Belichick?

Again, we go through this seemingly every year. Instead of white knighting over people calling it a reach, why not just admit that it's a reach and say "But I'm fine with that"? One can be fine with the Patriots reaching without having to attack those who point out it's a reach.

As for the trust level argument, that's a red herring that also gets thrown out pretty much every year.

 

[State]

I'm curoius. How can you possibly know when he would still be there?
You are acting as if that is some type of exact science.
The fact that the projections about where he was picked were wrong, because he was picked at 48, tends to imply that whoever made the projection is wrong.
Are you really stating that you think and have enough evidence to conclude that 31 teams saqw him as a 6th rounder, and BB AND HIS STAFF looked at a player and saw the total opposite of everyone else and were too naive to know it?

Re-read my fifth paragraph.

Just for the record, BB's lousy drafting outside of the first round has prevented the best QB in the history of the game from winning a SB since Feb. 2005, the date of our last victory.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Re-read my fifth paragraph.

Just for the record, BB's lousy drafting outside of the first round has prevented the best QB in the history of the game from winning a SB since Feb. 2005, the date of our last victory.

If Tom Brady played as well in Super Bowls 42 and 46 as he did in 38 and 39. Maybe, the results would have been different. If Brady plays a Giant level game we don't beat Philly or Carolina. Tom was the best player in those games and the difference. He wasn't against the Giants.

 

[upstater1]

Looking back on it, the Patriots could have packaged both 2nd rounders for a move up to 22-32 in the first round, and taken S Harrison Smith, DE Whitney Mercilus, LB Courtney Upshaw, DT Derek Wolfe.

Sure, Patriots fans would have been livid at such a move, but I can't help but think it would have been better than what we have now.

Heck, I would have preferred the Patriots traded both 2nd rounders this year for SF 49ers 1st and 3rd or 4th next year.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

It was defiantly a reach. He's right. But their 1st round made up for it

 

[RobertWeathers]

Would you have taken Tom Brady in the first round, knowing what you know now or would you still wait till the 6th?

That a bit of a stretch in a comparison. You are trying to fame the discussion around a hypothetical notion that BB knew TB would become the GoAT and chose to wait for till the 6th round because he knew more than everyone else and wanted great value for the pick. Essentially implying that BB was buying an unappreciated asset if you will.

I'm saying that (and Reiss said that 6-7 teams also worked him out) I believe the Pats and other teams really liked him as well and rather than roll the dice and hope he lasts to the later rounds, they took him. I think that A) The Pats think hes a damn good prospect and B) they felt strongly that other teams might take him if they didn't.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Price would probably still be here if they hadn't had all the injuries in the secondary and along the OL.

Maybe, but at that time, they could have cut Price or Tiquan Underwood, and decided to keep Underwood. I agree, Price is probably still here without a rash of injuries, but it doesn't look like he was a high priority for the team.

 

[Snake Eyes]

If Tom Brady played as well in Super Bowls 42 and 46 as he did in 38 and 39. Maybe, the results would have been different. If Brady plays a Giant level game we don't beat Philly or Carolina. Tom was the best player in those games and the difference. He wasn't against the Giants.

Ok, so it's not BB's fault at all, just TFBs? Every game is unique, and it takes a team to win, TFB was not under the kind of pressure in those other SBs that he was in SB42, he was also playing injured in SB 42.

 

[RobertWeathers]

IF Wilson does become a good player does it really matter where we picked him?

It does matter to BB on draft day. Every day after that is doesn't. Thats my point, though. The Pats really liked the kid and picked him in a slot that according to their scouting reports was consistent with the "value" of a mid 2nd round pick.

I will have a problem if he stinks and is a bust.

 

[Deus Irae]

That a bit of a stretch in a comparison. You are trying to fame the discussion around a hypothetical notion that BB knew TB would become the GoAT and chose to wait for till the 6th round because he knew more than everyone else and wanted great value for the pick. Essentially implying that BB was buying an unappreciated asset if you will.

I'm saying that (and Reiss said that 6-7 teams also worked him out) I believe the Pats and other teams really liked him as well and rather than roll the dice and hope he lasts to the later rounds, they took him. I think that A) The Pats think hes a damn good prospect and B) they felt strongly that other teams might take him if they didn't.

In a year of lousy safeties and teams in desperate need for players at the position, teams wanted a look at a guy who wasn't at the combine. Now, that certainly could mean that teams really liked him, but it could just as easily be a due diligence and/or desperation thing.

 

[patchick]

Let's take as a given that the spending #48 on Wilson is mysterious on the face of it.

Let's also take as a given that the Patriots didn't set their draft board with darts, and there had to be some reason for the choice.

Let's also put aside the silly notion that they "panicked" to get a safety, since NO other safeties had been taken in the 2nd and they still had #62 ahead. (They traded up for Jones right after 2 other DE/OLBs had been taken, yet nobody called that "panic," right? All that the accusation of "panic" seems to mean is "I don't get it.")

And finally, let's not mistake "in BB we trust" for an explanation, or even theory.

So: any theories about actual decision processes that would have produced this 2nd round? Here's one bit of total speculation I proposed on the draft board...

"BB & co. wanted to trade one of their 2nd-round picks into 2013, because they weren't enamored with this crop. The problem was that NOBODY was enamored. For the first time in memory, there was not a single draft-day trade for a future pick. So no luck trading #48 for future value as time ran down.

Given that, they just decided to secure the last piece they knew they wanted before the draft was done: a safety. That way they'd be in position to trade away #62 if the opportunity arose. And Wilson was their top-rated safety. Notice that all of the other db's fans wanted were slightly built CBs, with the exception of Trumaine Johnson, who was a character risk (and once again, they drafted nothing but respected team captains)."

 

[Deus Irae]

IF Wilson does become a good player does it really matter where we picked him?

It matters in terms of potentially lost value/opportunity, which is what this team preaches in the draft. It doesn't matter as far as play on the field.

 

[hambone1818]

Again, we go through this seemingly every year. Instead of white knighting over people calling it a reach, why not just admit that it's a reach and say "But I'm fine with that"? One can be fine with the Patriots reaching without having to attack those who point out it's a reach.

As for the trust level argument, that's a red herring that also gets thrown out pretty much every year.

I still hesitate to call it a reach, though, given we don't have all the information. As I said, SD worked Wilson out and took a safety after the Pats. For all we know they would have taken Wilson at 49. We just...don't...know. And that's the problem with this massive draft analysis market. For all the resources that Kiper and his ilk have at their disposal they don't have the team draft boards. So while it's fine to speculate that Wilson would have gone much later in the draft--based on published rankings--I think it's also fine to say those media rankings are garbage and they don't have nearly the information that NFL teams do.

In the grand scheme of things none of this matters...if Wilson works out then we'll all be happy and won't give a damn even if it comes out that no other team wanted Wilson in this draft.

 

[The Boomer]

Mo, just curious....are we supposed to react to every decision BB makes with, "Well, it's BB so it must be a good one!"? Or are we free to go, what the hell? when he makes a decision that we don't understand?

I think it's pretty well understood by most Patriots fans (and most people who follow the NFL) that BB gets a higher percentage of his decisions (both in terms of personnel and X's and O's) correct than most people in the game - that's why he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. But nobody gets every decision right and we can all point to a TON of decisions BB has gotten wrong. Again, he's better at this than pretty much everyone else, but he's not flawless. As we react to his draft choices, it would make for a pretty dull board to simply list each pick and say, "BB made it so it must be good."

I don't think it's unreasonable at all for us to wonder aloud at a decision like the Wilson pick. We ALL hope it turns out great and that he becomes an all-pro safety. But that doesn't mean we all understand the move.

BB's ability to turn seeming reaches (Mankins, McCourty and Vollmer) into treasures (despite some inevitable misses) is one factor that makes him a HOF genius. The other sign of his genius is to sometimes turn a pick perceived to have little value (Tom Brady is the HOF paradigm for this) into a player. When this happens with late picks and trading down, his luck is the residue of design. If he scores with a higher pick who the pundits believe is a reach, it's because he has scouted better than most others. Either way, his placid presentation while playing his cards close to his chest always disguises his true intentions from the competition. When Kiper was speechless and critical about the Tayvon Wilson pick, we should all be chanting Vollmer, Vollmer, Vollmer! Given the hardship this kid has overcome (which is itself a positive factor for BB), I will be rooting hard for him.

 

[Patriot 37]

Re-read my fifth paragraph.

Just for the record, BB's lousy drafting outside of the first round has prevented the best QB in the history of the game from winning a SB since Feb. 2005, the date of our last victory.

Ridley, Gronk, Hernandez, Mesko, Spikes, Deadrick, Mesko, Volmer, Edelman, Slater, Gostkowski, Koppen, Branch, Light...............oh and 6th Rounder Tom Brady.

Patriots Fans do this all the time whinning about our drafts. Judge a draft after 3 years and compare to other teams drafting in that range. You'll be suprised that most teams 3-5 picks don't pan out.