Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I'm a moderator, so I shouldn't post this. However, that statement shows how beyond stupid you really are.

BB's drafting caused Tryee's head catch with Rodney on him all the way? BB's drafting cause Welker to drop the ball or Brady to throw an ill advised int?

Do you even watch the games? I think it's time to remove you from this thread for your own good.

Good job NUT

A lil late but way to get after them.

None of us know the future. We can only approve the process.

 

[crowell33]

"Not really. I just try to be the best player Tavon can be. Honestly, there are a lot of great players in the NFL. I’ve looked at some players but I just try to be the best player that Tavon Wilson can be. "


Crowell33 doesn't think Tavon will sound like such a jerk after Bill Belichick gets through with him at rookie camp. Crowell33 guarantees it.

 

[resdubwhite]

Absolutely correct.



It's a reach even if another team was going to take the player, because that just means that more than one team was willing to reach. It's a reach even if the only reason they took the player was that they couldn't trade out of the position (which would be odd since the pick behind them was traded).

A reach is when a player is picked well ahead of where the punditry's general consensus for that player's draft range was, nothing more (although individual analysts will call picks reaches based upon just their own boards). The Wilson draft pick was a reach, by definition. Now we hope that the reach works out.

I agree that the pick looks like a reach. And also hope that it works out.

 

[hambone1818]

Absolutely correct.



It's a reach even if another team was going to take the player, because that just means that more than one team was willing to reach. It's a reach even if the only reason they took the player was that they couldn't trade out of the position (which would be odd since the pick behind them was traded).

A reach is when a player is picked well ahead of where the punditry's general consensus for that player's draft range was, nothing more (although individual analysts will call picks reaches based upon just their own boards). The Wilson draft pick was a reach, by definition. Now we hope that the reach works out.

So by that definition, you're saying you put more stock in the draft rankings of Kiper and McShay than in the drafting analysis of the Patriots?

I'm fighting a losing battle because it'll never happen, but my opinion is that we should put zero stock in the 'general consensus' and let things play out over time. In hindsight the picks of Butler, Jackson, etc were reaches (though at the time they were seen as great picks) while the picks of Mankins and Vollmer were steals, despite the punditry saying they were reaches. We don't know how things will play out for Wilson, only that the Patriots liked him at 48. I also believe we can't say they were reaches since we don't know what other team boards looked like at the time. Given Belichick's draft history on these draft-day 'reaches' I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

BB subscribes to the Jimmy Johnson philosophy of making sure you get your guy. These types of picks (Mankins, Vollmer) usually work out while sometimes they don't (Ben Watson).

Mankins was considered a 2nd, 3rd round pick and was taken late in the first.

Vollmer was considered a 2nd-4th rounder partially because of concerns about his back. He was chosen late in the 2nd and his back is still a concern.

Watson had off the chart measureable and smarts, was considered a 2nd round pick and was chosen with the last pick in the 1st round.

Bethel Johnson was a similar reach type of pick but at least he had great speed.

Wilson just came out of nowhere and doesn't appear to have any defining quality or the type of resume to warrant such a high selection.

 

[Deus Irae]

So by that definition, you're saying you put more stock in the draft rankings of Kiper and McShay than in the drafting analysis of the Patriots?

I'm not saying that at all, actually. I'd suggest that you put stock in whatever you feel comfortable with. Just as an example, I'd put more stock in a BB draft than a Matt Millen draft. The key, to me, is that I'd feel free to question either of them. When people do what you're doing, they effectively try to put an end to the questioning. I don't buy that. I think BB lost that level of sanctity some years back, if he ever had it.

I'm fighting a losing battle because it'll never happen, but my opinion is that we should put zero stock in the 'general consensus' and let things play out over time. In hindsight the picks of Butler, Jackson, etc were reaches (though at the time they were seen as great picks) while the picks of Mankins and Vollmer were steals, despite the punditry saying they were reaches. We don't know how things will play out for Wilson, only that the Patriots liked him at 48. I also believe we can't say they were reaches since we don't know what other team boards looked like at the time. Given Belichick's draft history on these draft-day 'reaches' I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

No offense meant here but, if you feel this way, you probably shouldn't be posting in draft threads or post-draft threads, since that's what they're about. You can get the info on who was picked via espn.com/espn/nfln.com/nfln/twitter/etc.... and you can surf the web to find bio info on individuals.

And, yes, we can say they are reaches.

 

[Snapper]

Absolutely correct.

It's a reach even if another team was going to take the player, because that just means that more than one team was willing to reach. It's a reach even if the only reason they took the player was that they couldn't trade out of the position (which would be odd since the pick behind them was traded).

A reach is when a player is picked well ahead of where the punditry's general consensus for that player's draft range was, nothing more (although individual analysts will call picks reaches based upon just their own boards). The Wilson draft pick was a reach, by definition. Now we hope that the reach works out.

So is this just a matter of semantics, regardless of the reality of how these players are viewed by the teams or how they end up working out? Your definition of "reach" is tied to the media's collective take? I would think that would doom you to being wrong a lot.

But fine, if you want us to call Wilson a reach by your narrow definition, OK, he's a reach.

I personally don't believe in the concept of draft "reaches", or "steals" for that matter. Regardless of the countless man-hours put in by the Kipers and McShays of the world, they're not the subject matter experts, who btw put in the same hours. And even then, the subject matter experts are wrong a lot, too, else every pick made by every team would work out subject to the order in which the player was picked. Like many have said in this thread, it's an inexact science, which is why the guy the collective expects to last until round 5 or round 7 or UFA may not actually be there then.

In one of Mel Kiper's 2010 mocks, he had Ricky Sapp slated for the Patriots at 22. And of course, every round thereafter that Sapp slipped past the Pats' pick caused outrage on this site. Sapp finally got picked up at 134 by the Eagles, and is now on to his second team. Had the Patriots done as the Kipers suggested and taken Sapp at 22, the Pats fans would be mollified, but the Pats would be no better off, probably unloading him in two years just like Philly did. But at least he wouldn't have been a "reach", right?

Wilson visited with the Chargers (49), Falcons (55), Bucs (58) and Ravens (60). Maybe the collective thinks he would have slipped past all of them for several rounds, but Belichick didn't think so.

I'd rather that he got the player he was targeting, rather than the consolation prize of knowing he didnt reach. If Wilson sucks, you can always crucify Belichick later.

 

[hambone1818]

No offense meant here but, if you feel this way, you probably shouldn't be posting in draft threads or post-draft threads, since that's what they're about. You can get the info on who was picked via espn.com/espn/nfln.com/nfln/twitter/etc.... and you can surf the web to find bio info on individuals.

And, yes, we can say they are reaches.

Fine, then my analysis on the pick is this: based on past precedent with Belichick and 'reaches', I love the pick because he targeted a player who most thought would go much later in the draft and he's had success with those types before. How does that sound?

 

[BradyToAmendola]

So is this just a matter of semantics, regardless of the reality of how these players are viewed by the teams or how they end up working out? Your definition of "reach" is tied to the media's collective take? I would think that would doom you to being wrong a lot.

But fine, if you want us to call Wilson a reach by your narrow definition, OK, he's a reach.

I personally don't believe in the concept of draft "reaches", or "steals" for that matter. Regardless of the countless man-hours put in by the Kipers and McShays of the world, they're not the subject matter experts, who btw put in the same hours. And even then, the subject matter experts are wrong a lot, too, else every pick made by every team would work out subject to the order in which the player was picked. Like many have said in this thread, it's an inexact science, which is why the guy the collective expects to last until round 5 or round 7 or UFA may not actually be there then.

In one of Mel Kiper's 2010 mocks, he had Ricky Sapp slated for the Patriots at 22. And of course, every round thereafter that Sapp slipped past the Pats' pick caused outrage on this site. Sapp finally got picked up at 134 by the Eagles, and is now on to his second team. Had the Patriots done as the Kipers suggested and taken Sapp at 22, the Pats fans would be mollified, but the Pats would be no better off, probably unloading him in two years just like Philly did. But at least he wouldn't have been a "reach", right?

Wilson visited with the Chargers (49), Falcons (55), Bucs (58) and Ravens (60). Maybe the collective thinks he would have slipped past all of them for several rounds, but Belichick didn't think so.

I'd rather that he got the player he was targeting, rather than the consolation prize of knowing he didnt reach. If Wilson sucks, you can always crucify Belichick later.

Amen. I don't understand everyone's need to declare someone a "stud" or "bust" seconds after we take a guy. We haven't even seen him play yet!

 

[skinnydog]

The Kipers and McShay's do talk to NFL scouts and GMs. And they are not the ones deciding who the 300 or so players are that get invited to the combine. Not only was Wilson not invited to the combine by he NFL, but the overwhelming consensus was that. He was a very late round pick or more likely would be a rookie free agent. Drafting him in the mid-second round is a monumental reach. Mankind was a reach only in that he was drafted a round or two earlier than most thought he would go. Not the same at all. Volmer was different in that he had a unique combination of size and athleticism that the Patriots coveted. Besides his late start playing football made a difference to some teams. I don't see any of those factors in play for Wilson. There is nothing about his size, speed or quickness that warrants such a reach. I hope this kid turn out to be the equivalent of Eugene Wilson. If the Pays liked him better Han anyone else, then so be it. Hope it works out. It's just hard to believe they could not have traded down and got him in the late third or fourth round.

 

[Deus Irae]

So is this just a matter of semantics, regardless of the reality of how these players are viewed by the teams or how they end up working out? Your definition of "reach" is tied to the media's collective take? I would think that would doom you to being wrong a lot.

Why would anyone be wrong in using the definition as the definition? A reach is a reach. A steal is a steal.

But fine, if you want us to call Wilson a reach by your narrow definition, OK, he's a reach.

He's a reach.

I personally don't believe in the concept of draft "reaches", or "steals" for that matter. Regardless of the countless man-hours put in by the Kipers and McShays of the world, they're not the subject matter experts, who btw put in the same hours. And even then, the subject matter experts are wrong a lot, too, else every pick made by every team would work out subject to the order in which the player was picked. Like many have said in this thread, it's an inexact science, which is why the guy the collective expects to last until round 5 or round 7 or UFA may not actually be there then.

Let's not pretend here, because it belittles us both. If you didn't believe in it, you wouldn't be arguing that someone wasn't one.

In one of Mel Kiper's 2010 mocks, he had Ricky Sapp slated for the Patriots at 22. And of course, every round thereafter that Sapp slipped past the Pats' pick caused outrage on this site. Sapp finally got picked up at 134 by the Eagles, and is now on to his second team. Had the Patriots done as the Kipers suggested and taken Sapp at 22, the Pats fans would be mollified, but the Pats would be no better off, probably unloading him in two years just like Philly did. But at least he wouldn't have been a "reach", right?

In one of Belichick's actual drafts, he had Chad Jackson as a second round talent and worthy of a trade up. He's gone through multiple teams and has done essentially nothing.

People make mistakes.

Wilson visited with the Chargers (49), Falcons (55), Bucs (58) and Ravens (60). Maybe the collective thinks he would have slipped past all of them for several rounds, but Belichick didn't think so.

You're guessing at Belichick's motive, nothing more.

I'd rather that he got the player he was targeting, rather than the consolation prize of knowing he didnt reach. If Wilson sucks, you can always crucify Belichick later.

I'd rather he drafted a WR. I don't really see your point here, probably because your only point is really "don't question Belichick" recycled over and over. Sorry, but nobody is above questioning, and having to wait years to talk about first impressions when there's a thread for posting first impressions is a pretty nonsensical notion to me.

 

[Deus Irae]

Fine, then my analysis on the pick is this: based on past precedent with Belichick and 'reaches', I love the pick because he targeted a player who most thought would go much later in the draft and he's had success with those types before. How does that sound?

It sounds like a misleading, or at least selectively remembering, appeal to authority and a needless abrogation of your own ability to investigate and think (which is something we all do on occasion), but at least it's based upon something more than "but I don't want to call him a reach!".

I hope the kid works out. The team needs safety help.

 

[chuckdoucette]

On the subject of the trade with GB. Did anyone ever consider that BB did not want to trade that pick with Denver because he did not want to help a team that is in the AFC and he was scheduled to play this year? Maybe BB took a lesser deal to keep a good player off his schedule.

 

[BSR]

He certainly is a reach in the perspective of Kiper. Then again, that doesn't really mean much. He wasn't a reach for Belichick, which is all that matters.

I'm comfortable with the process the Patriots use to evaluate and draft talent. I understand that some don't, but I also think that many of them have a skewed sense of reality.

 

[Off The Grid]

On the subject of the trade with GB. Did anyone ever consider that BB did not want to trade that pick with Denver because he did not want to help a team that is in the AFC and he was scheduled to play this year?

Maybe BB took a lesser deal to keep a good player off his schedule.

YAH!! THAT'S the ticket!!

Oh, those TRICKY PATRIOTS!!!

 

[DaBruinz]

l and underperforming Fighting Illini had only two INTs in his career.

The league coaches considered him not to be even an honorable mention all Big Ten player. Only the mediacritters did, which is telling.

It's amazing how you have changed your tune. You've gone from saying that Tavon Wilson wasn't an Honorable Mention the last two years to slamming him because the coaches didn't give him an Honorable mention, but the media did for this year.

Clearly you have an axe to grind with the kid. The fact remains that, in each of the last two years, Wilson received an Honorable Mention for the All Big Ten Team. In 2010 as a Safety by both the Coaches and the Media. And in 2011, as a Cornerback, by the media.

 

[DaBruinz]

So, I keep on reading that Wilson is meh in coverage, yet he is a converted CB. That really doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Anyhow, the pick is a head scratcher, Belichick thinks he is the smartest guy int he room with this one, I am not sure he is gonna prove it. But, I am willing to give it him a chance.

Heck, if the guy returned punts and kicks, i would understand it more, but a gunner? WTF

Wilson played SS and FS his 1st two years as a starter for the Illini. It was only as a senior that he was moved to CB because the team needed someone there and they had others who could play safety.

 

[DaBruinz]

Your basing your argument on the premise that because BB took a player the pick has to make sense, which is circular reasoning.

So, spending a 2nd round pick on a player who is heavy footed when trying to redirect, has poor instincts, is a bad tackler, is weak in coverage, and I'm supposed to believe it's a good pick because it's BB that pulled the trigger?

No, I handed in my BB Kool-Aid glass a long time ago, he's failed plenty. Having a QB like TFB has masked a lot of his GM gaffes.

Where did you get that scouting report from? Which team? Or was it one of the public sites we all love so much and make the mistake of taking as gospel?

If it was a team, then I might lend some credence to it. If it wasn't a team, then you are basing it on someone who doesn't have the luxury of the All-22 to review.

 

[Triumph]

Teams work out players all the time. There's nothing inherently meaningful in that, esp. in that he didn't attend the Combine or any games after his season.

Mike Reiss and others here seem to be hanging their hats on that fact. So what if Jacksonville or Kansas City worked him out? That in itself means what, exactly?

We worked out Alshon Jeffery just prior to the draft. Does anyone think he was going to be the pick of one of our firsts because of it? Maybe we were just curious to see what kind of player he was if he were to slide down the second round and be available at 48. Who knows? We'd have to ask the people who make the calls, an impossibility.

I think teams were likely considering Tavon Wilson for the latter rounds, like the fifth round. Remember he was projected as a 6-7 rounder. Or even a free agent. Fifth would have been early for him, judging by his lackadaisical play, according to conventional thinking. And I'm all in favor of violating conventional thinking, which I happen to do all the time.

But how many INTs did he have? I can't remember if his career tally was two or three.

Real ball hawk there.

Look at the parade of players we had go through Foxboro, the vast majority of which I don't think we were planning on drafting.

We have been experts at blowing false smoke signals.

Maybe we got snookered into taking this player by the very device we've used against other teams, hoisted by our own petard.

Hey State

Im with you on the poor drafting. The Pats didnt win any Championships, but somehow they got value even though these players are working at McDonalds today. Gotta love the Sunshine Boys.

Now, Im no koolaid drinking Homer, but I read that Wilson had 7 passes defensed in his Senior season. More would obviously be better but thats decent. Wilson had 22 total PDs. He moved back to CB last season from Safety.

We have to trust the Scouts and BB that they made the right decision until proven otherwise.

 

[Lampshade]

This is why I've grown to hate almost everything about the draft.

None of us have the first clue where any team other than the Patriots had him rated. None of us have a clue about the player, no matter how much noise we make. Kiper's reaction to the pick is exactly why no stock should be put in his opinion.