It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[mgteich]

OK, so according to you Welker is the focal point of the passing game and the team apparently isn't will to pay $8M a year to secure his services. I guess that they are simply predicting that he will fall apart after this year.

I certainly believe that Welker is worth the money and that we should extended him. At minimum I guess he is a $9.5M a year rent a player. We've been there before.

But GIVEN THAT THE TEAM thinks that Welker thinks that Welker is worth much less than others do, then perhaps they should capitalize on this difference in evaluation and consider a trade. This makes sense unless you believe that Welker is a $10M WR in 2012 and worth relatively little in 2013.

We seem to be considering Welker as an old vet who will play this year and then we will move on.

I would not trade Welker. I would extend him. But the team think that he is worth much less than I do. I suspect other GM's might agree with me. Put another way, Welker might be extremely valuable to other teams.

What? Welker is the focal point of the passing game. The fact that BB feels that the combination of cost, age and other factors mean he doesn't want to pay Welker whatever it is that Welker feels he is worth, doesnt diminish his value to the 2012 team.
The fact that Welker is obligated to the Patriots this year eliminates any realistic drawing of a conclusion as to what the contract offers mean to his value to the team. This contract negotiation has nothing to do with the 2012 Welker or Patriots. If he is allowed to walk NEXT year, then you can draw conclusions about the cost/value.
To suggest trading the focal point of the offense, or state that he is 'insurance' after producing the 19th best single season receiving yards any WR in the NFL ever has (including that Jerry Rice exceeded Welkers 2012 YARDAGE only twice in his entire career, one of which was by 1 yard, and no active player not named Calvin or Andre Johnson ever has) is simply ludicrous.

 

[BradyFTW!]

True, but let's remember that we're talking about one of the best players in the NFL over the last half decade--not a guy like McKenzie or Crable, who probably never would done much anyway. A Ted Johnson or Vrabel comparison, I can see more.

The point that I was trying to make--and maybe I didn't do it very well--was that we really don't know what a guy like McKenzie or even Chad Jackson could have become. They were truly screwed over, in that their knee injuries basically ended their effective careers before they ever even got a chance to start. For all we know, one or both of those guys might still be productive Patriots if things had played out a little different. Those are the guys they get truly screwed by injury, not someone who's already banked $30 million from the team.

The point being that Welker is (or would have been) Bruschi/BradyTroy Brown-like in terms of what he has meant to this franchise, and the level of loyalty, leadership and flat-out blue collar dirty work he has given this team over the last five years.

The thing that really bothers me is that he could be gone after this year, even though I have to think he will probably be franchised again in 2014 if he can stay healthy. Hell, they kept Kevin Faulk around even after age an injuries caught up to him, they re-upped Mankins for big money even after he held out and dissed the organization. So this is one that I just don't get.

Can't disagree with that. I think Welker deserves the contract, in a vacuum. The only way I'm at all okay with the Patriots declining to give it to him is if a) they don't intend to franchise Welker next year, because b) they feel that it's more important to bring back some combination out of the upcoming free agents; guys like Vollmer, Chung, Hernandez, etc.

 

[Ring 6]

I dont mean to get semantic. My definition of stopped is WW being double covered all game and being held to 1 catches for 12 yards, no 1st downs and zero TDs. Contained is 3 catches 29yds 1 first down and zero TDs.

I've never implied WW was ever "stopped".

If you never implied he was stopped then why are you stating that by disagreeing with you I say he has never been stopped?

When was Welker held to 3-29-0 and 1 first down in a playoff game?

If you are trying to make a point about a player, you should use the actual production on the football field.
Your argument now is that if anyone held Welker to less than he has ever been held to, that would be containing him, so therefore he can be contained, even though he never has based upon your own definition.

I dont know what else to say, Andy. WW averages less 1st downs in the playoffs. They are certainly not all on him but I do believe a good margin as he is facing better players and better talent and better defensive schemes.

Where are you getting that from? Show me the stat that says this.

I'm saying that WW's across the board go down in the playoffs.

As a Patriot Welker has averaged 7.19 receptions per game in the regular season and 7.57 receptions per game in the post season.
Across the board fails on the 1st test.
He has also averaged 0.4 TDs/game in the regular season, and 0.43 in the postseason. Strike 2.
I don't know where you are getting your first down stats claim from, but if you actually find the stat, that will likely be strike 3.

All good players have lesser production in the playoffs against good teams. Welker is one of the worst examples you can find for that.
Perhaps you should take a different approach to making yourself feel better about him not being extended, because the facts really tear this one up.

 

[Ring 6]

OK, so according to you Welker is the focal point of the passing game and the team apparently isn't will to pay $8M a year to secure his services. I guess that they are simply predicting that he will fall apart after this year.

Are you disputing he is the focal point of the passing game?
They are willing to pay 9.5 million for his services.
As I said you are incorrectly trying to tie his value to the team over whether they could agree on the price to EXTEND him at this point.

I certainly believe that Welker is worth the money and that we should extended him. At minimum I guess he is a $9.5M a year rent a player. We've been there before.

But you have no clue how that negotiation went. Its easy to say he should be extended if you ignore that an extension is a 2 way deal that has a hell of a lot more to it than someone on a message board throwing out numbers and pretending its the whole story.

But GIVEN THAT THE TEAM thinks that Welker thinks that Welker is worth much less than others do,

Says who? The team thinks he is worth 9.5 mill this year, and doesn't agree with him on the long term price.

then perhaps they should capitalize on this difference in evaluation and consider a trade. This makes sense unless you believe that Welker is a $10M WR in 2012 and worth relatively little in 2013.

Who said he is worth relatively little in 2013? All the result of the negotiation tells us is that AS OF NOW what the Patriots feel his long term value is and what Welker feels his long term price is do not match.
Again, you are making the mistake of connecting value to whether the team and player agree on the amount of money in the future. He is not a FA, he is Patriot property, because they want him at 9.5 million.

We seem to be considering Welker as an old vet who will play this year and then we will move on.

Who is 'we'?

I would not trade Welker. I would extend him. But the team think that he is worth much less than I do. I suspect other GM's might agree with me. Put another way, Welker might be extremely valuable to other teams.

So you would give him a blank check, and that means since the Patriots didn't and agreed to pay him 9.5 million they think he is worthless?
You need to learn there is gray in between black and white.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If you never implied he was stopped then why are you stating that by disagreeing with you I say he has never been stopped?

When was Welker held to 3-29-0 and 1 first down in a playoff game?

If you are trying to make a point about a player, you should use the actual production on the football field.
Your argument now is that if anyone held Welker to less than he has ever been held to, that would be containing him, so therefore he can be contained, even though he never has based upon your own definition.

Postseason catches: 53
Postseason 1st downs: 21
Postseason conversion 39%
Regular season 1st down conversion (with Pats): 57%

As I've been saying all along, hes biggest contribution to this offense- making 1st downs is substantially reduced in the postseason; thus he has been contained.

Where are you getting that from? Show me the stat that says this.

Read the gamebooks on NFL.com and do the math.

As a Patriot Welker has averaged 7.19 receptions per game in the regular season and 7.57 receptions per game in the post season.
Across the board fails on the 1st test.
He has also averaged 0.4 TDs/game in the regular season, and 0.43 in the postseason. Strike 2.
I don't know where you are getting your first down stats claim from, but if you actually find the stat, that will likely be strike 3.

All good players have lesser production in the playoffs against good teams. Welker is one of the worst examples you can find for that.
Perhaps you should take a different approach to making yourself feel better about him not being extended, because the facts really tear this one up.

As I've been saying all along, YAC goes down, YPC goes down, 1st down conversion rate goes down in the playoffs. Your "across the board" counter is based on catches. I find them meaningful, but not overly valuable in measuring the overall production of a WR.

 

[Deus Irae]

Postseason catches: 53
Postseason 1st downs: 21
Postseason conversion 39%
Regular season 1st down conversion (with Pats): 57%

As I've been saying all along, hes biggest contribution to this offense- making 1st downs is substantially reduced in the postseason; thus he has been contained.

As I have pointed out to you, these numbers mean absolutely nothing without context. I could easily point to the elevated catch numbers and argue that Brady is being forced to throw to Welker more often than usual because the other players are being shut down. Also, your use of the numbers ignores what's happening with the QB.


And, given that Welker's catch numbers are higher in the playoffs than in the regular season, you're choosing your own special definition of "contain".

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Here is another article with pretty much the same details. Not it isn't contrary to the rotoworld, it just breaks it down more thoroughly. Basically they can cut Smith after year two only having paid him about $15M. After year three having paid him only about $21M.

Breaking down Steve Smith's deal - NFC South Blog - ESPN

Looking over everyone's summation of that deal it is a 1 year $17.75M guaranteed deal, or a 2 year $17.75M guaranteed deal (see, guaranteed is guaranteed), or it's a 3 year $21.75M deal, although it could be a 4 or 5 year deal worth anywhere from $24-37.75M depending on whether they decide to pay him any unguaranteed salary or he decides to continue playing at a salary discount.

I think Wes would be happy to land the first two or three years of that deal at 32, on top of the $9.5M he is getting for this season. He might even be happy with a lot less. If he catches 110 balls this year, he'll get at least the first 3 years of that deal from someone. Probably with 60% of it guaranteed. Just not going to get it in NE. They had their shot.

 

[RobertWeathers]

As I have pointed out to you, these numbers mean absolutely nothing without context. I could easily point to the elevated catch numbers and argue that Brady is being forced to throw to Welker more often than usual because the other players are being shut down. Also, your use of the numbers ignores what's happening with the QB.

Brady's comp % goes down 1.2% and 8yards a game in the playoffs. His YPP go down a yard. I could just as easily say that WW gets bumped off his spot easily by LBs on the LoC because he is too small. C'mon now.

And, given that Welker's catch numbers are higher in the playoffs than in the regular season, you're choosing your own special definition of "contain".

It's not special. If a player has the same number of catches, but less yardage, less YAC and less 1st down %, thats a degree of containment and thus less productive that the normal output.

 

[treeclimber]

Welker's playoff stats:

2011:
6 rec for 55 yds, 1 TD
6 rec for 53 yds, 0 TD
7 rec for 60 yds, 0 TD

2010:
7 rec for 57 yds, 0 TD

2009:
Injured

2007:
9 rec for 54 yds, 1 TD
7 rec for 56 yds, 1 TD
11 rec for 103 yds, 0 TD

I'm sorry, but that's barely worth 5 million. His one good game came with Moss blazing down the sidelines. Bloated regular season stats, doesn't show up in prime time.

Don't get me wrong, great receiver. But hardly worth all the crying in this thread. Hope he has a good year, atones himself for his shameful play that shall not be mentioned, and then CYA!

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady's comp % goes down 1.2% and 8yards a game in the playoffs. His YPP go down a yard. I could just as easily say that WW gets bumped off his spot easily by LBs on the LoC because he is too small. C'mon now.

C'mon now? You're making a really poor argument, and you're telling me "C'mon now?" We know that Brady, for one reason or another, has been a significant issue in several playoff games since Welker's arrival, sometimes in streaks, and sometimes for large stretches or an entire game: Giants 2007/Ravens 2009/Jets 2010/Ravens 2011 come quickly to mind. That's 4 of his 8 games in that time, and that's not even counting the San Diego game.

Your argument sucks. It is what it is.

It's not special. If a player has the same number of catches, but less yardage, less YAC and less 1st down %, thats a degree of containment and thus less productive that the normal output.

It is special. It's your specific definition of "contain". According to the data Andy provided, Welker's catch numbers and TD numbers are higher in the post season. One can easily argue that to be the very opposite of contained.

 

[goheels22002]

I doubt he signs the tag next time around if it goes that way....

Welker's not going to get $11+ million from anybody other than the Patriots for one year. If he balks, his new bride will drag him down there by his left ear and simply say, "Wes, honey...Sign the friggin' offer sheet!"

 

[Ring 6]

Postseason catches: 53
Postseason 1st downs: 21
Postseason conversion 39%
Regular season 1st down conversion (with Pats): 57%

As I've been saying all along, hes biggest contribution to this offense- making 1st downs is substantially reduced in the postseason; thus he has been contained.



Read the gamebooks on NFL.com and do the math.

I absolutely question the validity of those stats.

As I've been saying all along, YAC goes down, YPC goes down, 1st down conversion rate goes down in the playoffs. Your "across the board" counter is based on catches. I find them meaningful, but not overly valuable in measuring the overall production of a WR.

Do you know what across the board means?

 

[BSR]

I think Wes would be happy to land the first two or three years of that deal at 32, on top of the $9.5M he is getting for this season. He might even be happy with a lot less. If he catches 110 balls this year, he'll get at least the first 3 years of that deal from someone. Probably with 60% of it guaranteed. Just not going to get it in NE. They had their shot.

I have my doubts. Its one thing to sign your own 32 year old WR to a big contract. Its a lot different if its someone else's, particularly one that is coming from the Patriots. Not that Welker is a product of the system, but I am sure some other GMs are wondering why BB isn't resigning him. Also don't be shocked if the offense tends to be more spread out this year. It almost has to be. So his numbers will almost certainly go down.

And I have don't know where the "They had their shot" statement is coming from. I don't see how this totally shuts the door by any means.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I absolutely question the validity of those stats.

If you really want to know the truth, take the 20min or so and look at each of the 7 playoff gamebooks on NFL.com, do a ctrl+f for "Welker" look at his play and the one after it to see if a 1st down was gained. Get a piece of paper and track each 1st down made.

I'd love for it to be 70% but it is simply not the case.

Do you know what across the board means?

Poor choice of words, Mr. Condescending. Lets go with contained.

 

[RobertWeathers]

C'mon now? You're making a really poor argument, and you're telling me "C'mon now?" We know that Brady, for one reason or another, has been a significant issue in several playoff games since Welker's arrival, sometimes in streaks, and sometimes for large stretches or an entire game: Giants 2007/Ravens 2009/Jets 2010/Ravens 2011 come quickly to mind. That's 4 of his 8 games in that time, and that's not even counting the San Diego game.

Your argument sucks. It is what it is.

My argument sucks to you because you fail to see the larger picture.

Since Welker's arrival? If you want to throw Brady under the bus for sub-standard playoff performances than you also need to include WW.

It is special. It's your specific definition of "contain". According to the data Andy provided, Welker's catch numbers and TD numbers are higher in the post season. One can easily argue that to be the very opposite of contained.

Seems to me that you think 8 catches for 50 yards and 1 first down is better than 7 catches 59 yards and 4 first downs.

Considering WW's primary value to the offense is to make first downs, he is not productive doing that in the playoffs. That is a fact.

 

[Ring 6]

If you really want to know the truth, take the 20min or so and look at each of the 7 playoff gamebooks on NFL.com, do a ctrl+f for "Welker" look at his play and the one after it to see if a 1st down was gained. Get a piece of paper and track each 1st down made.

I'd love for it to be 70% but it is simply not the case.






Poor choice of words, Mr. Condescending. Lets go with contained.

Poor choice of words by who? You said his numbers were down across the board. That is wrong. Stating so is much less disingenuous than moving the goal posts.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Poor choice of words by who? You said his numbers were down across the board. That is wrong. Stating so is much less disingenuous than moving the goal posts.

I will admit that I used a poor choice of words.

What is clearly glaring is your failure to admit that for multiple reasons, WW compared to the regular season, is not as productive in the playoffs.

 

[condon84]

What is clearly glaring is your failure to admit that for multiple reasons, WW compared to the regular season, is not as productive in the playoffs.

Brady, aside from the Denver game last postseason, hasn't exactly been lighting it up in the playoffs since Welker has been on the team.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Welker's not going to get $11+ million from anybody other than the Patriots for one year. If he balks, his new bride will drag him down there by his left ear and simply say, "Wes, honey...Sign the friggin' offer sheet!"

He doesn't have to. But he could very easily get $11M+ in signing bonus and guaranteed money on a 3 year deal at age 32, just like Steve Smith got on his 3 year extension this season at age 33. Smith actually got $17.75M guaranteed. Next year the Patriots options are to franchise tag him for $11.4M or offer him more than that guaranteed on a 2 year deal in a short window between week 17 and the start of FA in March - which they just refused to for the last 6+ months, or allow him to test the market as an UFA. If he is coming off another 100+ catch 1200 yard season, someone will offer him at least $11M+ guaranteed to sign with them. KC, Atlanta, Denver, NYJ, GB would likely just be a few of the contenders. Basically anyone looking for an upgrade out of the slot.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Brady, aside from the Denver game last postseason, hasn't exactly been lighting it up in the playoffs since Welker has been on the team.

Compared to what - how he didn't exactly light it up in the playoffs before Welker was on the team? LOL

Tom Brady Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com