It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[RobertWeathers]

No. I'm saying that they should be disregarded because they're irrelevant. Every athlete and person is different. Pointing to other receivers throughout history and attempting to make a correlation to Welker is a pointless venture in that regard. .

Sounds to me to need to understand what a sports actuary does and why the Patriots retain their services...

He has, but not in the neighborhood of Welker. .

You cannot prove that one bit. If he was double teamed so much he would not have caught 122 balls.

I don't see how. The guts of your counter argument revolve around the reason for the stalemate being that the Pats do not want to extend any more to an aging receiver and that it's a concept that they've always deployed. The Moss contract blows an iceberg sized hole in your argument.

As it stands, though, I'm done with you here. You keep making arguments based on hypotheticals instead of facts. When that argument is turned upside down, you move the goal posts. I hope the two sides agree but, should Welker walk, you'll see just how much he'll be missed. Sort of like the Seymour trade.

Please explain how they pay Seymour what he wants and extend Brady, Mankins, Wilfork?

As a 31 year old receiver they paid Moss $15m guaranteed and he wisely took it. They offered to pay WW $16m guaranteed and he turned them down. Thats his choice.

i'm not moving the goal posts and I've maintained from the beginning that most WRs production drops off in their early 30s and have never changed my position. Right or wrong the Pats are simply managing their business risk.

i'm done too. You refuse to acknowledge the risk aspect of issuing big money contracts to players in their early 30s and with the Seymour comment how overall cap management factors into this situation.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Boldin got 3/25 million at 30 years with about 10 million in guarantees. Colston is 29 and got 5/36 million, with incentives to earn more, and 17.7 million in guarantees. I figured Welkers market value is probably close to Boldins total value and years but more along the lines of Colstons guarantee. If NE was way below that there was no way he could sign, but if they were at that number Welker is probably pricing himself too high, though I guess there is always the chance one team might go above that on the open market.

He's exponentially outproduced both of them. That said, it's believed he was looking for something in the $20M range in guaranteed money and for 2 year deal they just couldn't seem to bring themselves to go there. Media seemed to think he initially wanted somewhere in the 9-10M per range, $8M might have done it depending on the guaranteed $$. I think he initially probably wanted a longer term, maybe 4 years, which guranteed money being the real issue should have been fine with them for cap purposes. But apparently it wasn't.

The deal they offered him last fall was for 2 extension years at $8M per guaranteed but retaining his remaining season on the old deal that was paying him $2.5M. So they were really only offering him 3 years $18.5M last fall. Apparently this year the 2 year $16M deal alone was off the table when they tagged him... as was the $16M in guaranteed money as a jumping off point. He said that they lowered that. Multiple reports claimed the sides were said to be about $6M apart all along. So it sounds like 3/$24M or $27M/$20M guaranteed would have done it and they just wouldn't do it. Reportedly there was some talk of a possible third year structure this week, but in the end they couldn't agree on it.

 

[BSR]

Boldin got 3/25 million at 30 years with about 10 million in guarantees. Colston is 29 and got 5/36 million, with incentives to earn more, and 17.7 million in guarantees. I figured Welkers market value is probably close to Boldins total value and years but more along the lines of Colstons guarantee. If NE was way below that there was no way he could sign, but if they were at that number Welker is probably pricing himself too high, though I guess there is always the chance one team might go above that on the open market.

For the 2013 season Welker is going to be 33 so I don't see the Colston deal as a comparable. So far I think the best comparison is the Smith deal of 3 years 21million with 18 guaranteed. I could see some team offering somewhere in that range next year although I am not sure about that guaranteed money. I would think it closer to $14-$15million.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why do I care how Vinateri made out?

The only question to me is did the Patriots make a good decision. In hindsight I think their decision was neutral or better than neutral.

As for the Welker situation, I am curious what many of you think Welker would receive on the open market after next year. Does anyone have any recent contract examples for +30 year old WR? The only one I can find is the Steve Smith deal which is a 3 year deal with $18m guaranteed. According to PFT the average annual value on that deal is about $7.25. Any others?

FWIW Smith's 2012 deal is a 4 year $37.75M deal with a club option 4th year at $9M in salary so on a 3 year basis it's a $28.75M deal with an average annual value of $9.58M. He got a $10M signing bonus and his first 3 years base salaries guaranteed. He's a different kind of receiver, although they've both taken some beatings and are tough little sob's. Smith is 33 this year.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

For the 2013 season Welker is going to be 33 so I don't see the Colston deal as a comparable. So far I think the best comparison is the Smith deal of 3 years 21million with 18 guaranteed. I could see some team offering somewhere in that range next year although I am not sure about that guaranteed money. I would think it closer to $14-$15million.

For the entire 2013 season Welker is going to be 32... He just turned 31 in May of this year. And you're wrong on the Smith deal total value according to rotoworld who usually have it pretty right. And Welker may have had an ACL, but Colston has had multiple knee surgeries along with other injuries and his knee issues included microfracture surgery on both knees, a big concern.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

No but then again I don't care. By screwed you are saying, he isn't getting the maximum number of millions he could by going to another team. Really, why would I care? On the flip side, I don't care if the Krafts get the shaft occasionally either (i.e, Ocho). My only concern is what happens on the field and that is what the FO's only concern should be as well. As long as they can continue to sign their players and quality FA I don't have any problem with how they do their business.

No, screwed would be the guy who gets his knee blown out again down the stretch and this time doesn't doesn't bounce all the way back. And at age 32 you know what happens to him once he's cleared for football activity again...nothing. He's forced to retire. He's not due another nickle. From anybody.

I also love fans who can't wait to admit they don't give a crap about anyone or anything involved as long as their team wins on Sunday.

 

[BSR]

FWIW Smith's 2012 deal is a 4 year $37.75M deal with a club option 4th year at $9M in salary so on a 3 year basis it's a $28.75M deal with an average annual value of $9.58M. He got a $10M signing bonus and his first 3 years base salaries guaranteed. He's a different kind of receiver, although they've both taken some beatings and are tough little sob's. Smith is 33 this year.

That's not what PFT has it at. They have it as:

And so it looks like a two-year, $14.75 million contract, and possibly a three-year, $21.75 million deal. At this point, it’s unlikely that the Panthers will pay Smith $7 million in 2015 (when he’ll be 36) or $9 million in 2016.

Steve Smith’s contract gives Panthers $4.75 million in cap space | ProFootballTalk

I couldn't find any source that mentions the numbers you have.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

No, screwed would be the guy who gets his knee blown out again down the stretch and this time doesn't doesn't bounce all the way back. And at age 32 you know what happens to him once he's cleared for football activity again...nothing. He's forced to retire. He's not due another nickle. From anybody.

I also love fans who can't wait to admit they don't give a crap about anyone or anything involved as long as their team wins on Sunday.

If this was such a monumental concern, you should have mind melded WW's agent and had him accept the 2 year/ $16 million deal.

Problem would have been solved.

 

[BSR]

No, screwed would be the guy who gets his knee blown out again down the stretch and this time doesn't doesn't bounce all the way back. And at age 32 you know what happens to him once he's cleared for football activity again...nothing. He's forced to retire. He's not due another nickle. From anybody.

I also love fans who can't wait to admit they don't give a crap about anyone or anything involved as long as their team wins on Sunday.

We live on a world with billions of people, I can't care about everyone. Luckily, I acknowledge that it goes both ways and don't take it personally when and if a player leaves either. I am pretty sure Wes doesn't care at all how well I did in negotiating my last contract.

 

[BSR]

For the entire 2013 season Welker is going to be 32... He just turned 31 in May of this year. And you're wrong on the Smith deal total value according to rotoworld who usually have it pretty right. And Welker may have had an ACL, but Colston has had multiple knee surgeries along with other injuries and his knee issues included microfracture surgery on both knees, a big concern.

You are correct on the age, I don't know where I picked up the wrong age.

 

[jah]

Sounds to me to need to understand what a sports actuary does and why the Patriots retain their services...



You cannot prove that one bit. If he was double teamed so much he would not have caught 122 balls.



Please explain how they pay Seymour what he wants and extend Brady, Mankins, Wilfork?

As a 31 year old receiver they paid Moss $15m guaranteed and he wisely took it. They offered to pay WW $16m guaranteed and he turned them down. Thats his choice.

i'm not moving the goal posts and I've maintained from the beginning that most WRs production drops off in their early 30s and have never changed my position. Right or wrong the Pats are simply managing their business risk.

i'm done too. You refuse to acknowledge the risk aspect of issuing big money contracts to players in their early 30s and with the Seymour comment how overall cap management factors into this situation.

This isn't 2008. Contracts are more expensive now.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

This isn't 2008. Contracts are more expensive now.

The cap has gone up like 5M, not a lot more money to spread around.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This isn't 2008. Contracts are more expensive now.

2008 Cap- 116m
2012 cap -120m

2008 tag for a wr- 9.8m
2012 tag for a wr- 9.5m

The league's economic climate isn't as different as you think.

 

[BSR]

For the entire 2013 season Welker is going to be 32... He just turned 31 in May of this year. And you're wrong on the Smith deal total value according to rotoworld who usually have it pretty right. And Welker may have had an ACL, but Colston has had multiple knee surgeries along with other injuries and his knee issues included microfracture surgery on both knees, a big concern.

Here is another article with pretty much the same details. Not it isn't contrary to the rotoworld, it just breaks it down more thoroughly. Basically they can cut Smith after year two only having paid him about $15M. After year three having paid him only about $21M.

Breaking down Steve Smith's deal - NFC South Blog - ESPN

 

[BradyFTW!]

No, screwed would be the guy who gets his knee blown out again down the stretch and this time doesn't doesn't bounce all the way back. And at age 32 you know what happens to him once he's cleared for football activity again...nothing. He's forced to retire. He's not due another nickle. From anybody.

I also love fans who can't wait to admit they don't give a crap about anyone or anything involved as long as their team wins on Sunday.

From 2007 to 2012, The Patriots will have paid Welker approximately $27M, correct? It's not that I wouldn't have any sympathy for him if his career ended this year- I absolutely would. Even in NFL terms, though, I have a whole lot more sympathy for guys like Ted Johnson, or, even worse, guys like Tyrone McKenzie, who blew out his knee in rookie OTAs and then never really got a chance to make an impact on the league after that. There are a lot of players who didn't have the good fortune of making nearly $30M before getting screwed.

If Welker were to blow out his knee, he would be far from the most screwed that a Patriots player has been during the Belichick era.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

2008 Cap- 116m
2012 cap -120m

2008 tag for a wr- 9.8m
2012 tag for a wr- 9.5m

The league's economic climate isn't as different as you think.

In some ways, while in others... Those tag figures were calculated using two very different formulas. The tag in 2008 represented the top 5 WR salaries from 2007 averaged. The 2012 tag represents the top 5 WR salaries over the past 5 years averaged and adjusted for cap growth. The top 5 averaged salaries for WR from 2010 was $11.5M, what the tag would have been prior to the new CBA.

The league sets a base cap but each team has their own adjusted cap. In 2008 when Randy got his deal our adjusted cap was 121M. Our adjusted cap in 2012 is just under $129M. It includes any money we rolled over from 2011 plus the $1.5M cap penalty distribution from the money taken from the Cowboys and Redskins.

In 2009 Tom Brady was making $10M per AAV on his deal. In 2012 he is making $15.6M per (although his new money for 2011-2014 alone averages $18M).

 

[jason423]

In some ways, while in others... Those tag figures were calculated using two very different formulas. The tag in 2008 represented the top 5 WR salaries from 2007 averaged. The 2012 tag represents the top 5 WR salaries over the past 5 years averaged and adjusted for cap growth. The top 5 averaged salaries for WR from 2010 was $11.5M, what the tag would have been prior to the new CBA.

The league sets a base cap but each team has their own adjusted cap. In 2008 when Randy got his deal our adjusted cap was 121M. Our adjusted cap in 2012 is just under $129M. It includes any money we rolled over from 2011 plus the $1.5M cap penalty distribution from the money taken from the Cowboys and Redskins.

In 2009 Tom Brady was making $10M per AAV on his deal. In 2012 he is making $15.6M per (although his new money for 2011-2014 alone averages $18M).

I think because of the new tag rules when you try to look at inflation in top tier salaries you have to look at the top end and see where it goes. If I am a top WR in 2012 looking for a big payday I will compare Larry Fitzgerald now to whomever was the top contract back then. I think you do that and then work backwards from there for everyone.

 

[JMarr]

From 2007 to 2012, The Patriots will have paid Welker approximately $27M, correct? It's not that I wouldn't have any sympathy for him if his career ended this year- I absolutely would. Even in NFL terms, though, I have a whole lot more sympathy for guys like Ted Johnson, or, even worse, guys like Tyrone McKenzie, who blew out his knee in rookie OTAs and then never really got a chance to make an impact on the league after that. There are a lot of players who didn't have the good fortune of making nearly $30M before getting screwed.

If Welker were to blow out his knee, he would be far from the most screwed that a Patriots player has been during the Belichick era.

True, but let's remember that we're talking about one of the best players in the NFL over the last half decade--not a guy like McKenzie or Crable, who probably never would done much anyway. A Ted Johnson or Vrabel comparison, I can see more.

The point being that Welker is (or would have been) Bruschi/BradyTroy Brown-like in terms of what he has meant to this franchise, and the level of loyalty, leadership and flat-out blue collar dirty work he has given this team over the last five years.

The thing that really bothers me is that he could be gone after this year, even though I have to think he will probably be franchised again in 2014 if he can stay healthy. Hell, they kept Kevin Faulk around even after age an injuries caught up to him, they re-upped Mankins for big money even after he held out and dissed the organization. So this is one that I just don't get.

 

[juny]

FWIW, Lloyd hasn't caught a pass here yet and he'll also be the dreaded 32 in 2013... And Hernandez could be staging a holdout by then given the experience Dunn has just had with this FO or planning his case for the WR franchise tag in 2014... One thing for sure is he won't be signing one of those optional totally team friendly backloaded deals Rosenhaus and the FO just concocted for Gronk where they can cut him in or after 2015 and and he's out $40M of his $54M highest paid TE ever deal. And need I remind you of their track record with replacing lost critical WR's via the draft or FA?

^ This. It's not like Welkers and Moss's grow on trees.

Still hard to make a final judgment call when the final offers aren't known. But it is a bit disappointing when both sides could not get it done.

 

[Ring 6]

One wonders why our evaluation is so different that that of Belichick. We would recommend paying him pay him $16M/2 in a flash, as you said, as would lots of teams in the nfl. I'd even go for $18M/2.

Belichick seem fine with going forward into 2013 with Gronkowski, Hernandez, Lloyd and Gaffney as our receivers.

If the discrepancy is as great as we think, then perhaps Welker should be traded now, and use the cap monies to extend Hernandez this year or early next. It seems that he is being kept as insurance against the possible failure of Lloyd.

What? Welker is the focal point of the passing game. The fact that BB feels that the combination of cost, age and other factors mean he doesn't want to pay Welker whatever it is that Welker feels he is worth, doesnt diminish his value to the 2012 team.
The fact that Welker is obligated to the Patriots this year eliminates any realistic drawing of a conclusion as to what the contract offers mean to his value to the team. This contract negotiation has nothing to do with the 2012 Welker or Patriots. If he is allowed to walk NEXT year, then you can draw conclusions about the cost/value.
To suggest trading the focal point of the offense, or state that he is 'insurance' after producing the 19th best single season receiving yards any WR in the NFL ever has (including that Jerry Rice exceeded Welkers 2012 YARDAGE only twice in his entire career, one of which was by 1 yard, and no active player not named Calvin or Andre Johnson ever has) is simply ludicrous.