Is the Pats pass defense as bad as everybody claims?

[eric5280]

You might want to double check your numbers.

Here is a screen print of the spreadsheet. I had excel do the math

If you look at the season totals on the top right, the first row shows their actual season totals while the line below it shows their season totals omitting the totals from the Patriots games.

Feel free to point out any errors.

 

[eric5280]

So, teams don't run on the Patriots, the patriots have the 8th fewest attempts with 292 for a 4.2 average. Compare that to the 2nd most passing attempts against at 485, 63.9% completion, and a solid 8 YPP

Patriots saving grace is the 17 interceptions

Yeah the most alarming stat is the 64% completion rate and the 8.03YPA. The total passing yards surrendered is emphasized way too much and it is this stat that gives them the "historically bad" label.

 

[Deus Irae]

Here is a screen print of the spreadsheet. I had excel do the math

If you look at the season totals on the top right, the first row shows their actual season totals while the line below it shows their season totals omitting the totals from the Patriots games.

Feel free to point out any errors.

Passer rating after Nov. 24th was 88.1

Dave D'Onofrio's Patriots Notebook: Seven reasons why they’re in the driver’s seat | New Hampshire SPORTS

The following games were Eagles (80.2) and Colts (113.2)

I didn't do the math on it, but that would not seem to lead to a 2 point drop. I could be off, but I figured you could double check pretty easily.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

it's pretty bad...

 

[eric5280]

Passer rating after Nov. 24th was 88.1

Dave D'Onofrio's Patriots Notebook: Seven reasons why they’re in the driver’s seat | New Hampshire SPORTS

The following games were Eagles (80.2) and Colts (113.2)

I didn't do the math on it, but that would not seem to lead to a 2 point drop.

I just checked and that report accounts for stats accumulated up to and including the second Jets game.

 

[Deus Irae]

I just checked and that report accounts for stats accumulated up to and including the second Jets game.

Good catch on that, thanks. I knew something didn't seem right.

 

[eric5280]

Basically the passer rating and points allowed are middle of the pack so shouldn't those be the bigger criteria by which we judge this defense on rather than total yards? I mean if this were the case, we'd be saying Young and Orvlovsky had much better games than Brady when they obviously did not.

 

[Banjo]

Aaron Rodgers would pass for 600 yards against this defense... seriously

 

[Funktopus]

Aaron Rodgers would pass for 600 yards against this defense... seriously

I'd like to see the Pats blow out the Packers.

 

[JackBauer]

Aaron Rodgers would pass for 600 yards against this defense... seriously

Oh, good. For a second there I thought you were kidding.

 

[Rob0729]

Aaron Rodgers would pass for 600 yards against this defense... seriously

Only if the Pats were up by 4 TDs in the fourth. The Pats over the last two weeks gave up most of their passing yards in garbage time. In fact, the Colts only had about 120 yards of total offense until garbage time. Giving up a lot of garbage time yards have happened multiple times this year including against the Dolphins, Raiders, Eagles, Indy, and the Jets.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Patriots performances against Tyler Palko (complete stiff making his 2nd start ever), Vince Young (flake who wigged out and got dumped by his old team, making his second start this season) and Dan Orlovksy (complete stiff making his first start since 2008) have a lot of Patriots fans talking tough about the supposedly improved defense. The same crap happened last year. It's going to get even more absurd once the team finishes against the Redskins (Grossman) and Broncos (Tebow).

 

[TheComeback]

Well..my guess is that

a) We haven't faced that many good QBs - Romo,Rapistberger,Eli. 4 if you wanna count Rivers but he has sucked this year.

b) We play with a lead most of the time - teams forced to abandon the run...makes their O more predictable...leads to more yards but also more mistakes.

c) Decent red-zone D

a) We've faced as many good QBs as most teams in the NFL. There just aren't that many good QBs this year. If you want to look at an easy schedule, then take a look at Green Bay's.

b) Teams haven't been forced to abandon the run this year. We aren't blowing most of these games up in the first half anymore, in case you haven't noticed.

 

[TheComeback]

The Patriots performances against Tyler Palko (complete stiff making his 2nd start ever), Vince Young (flake who wigged out and got dumped by his old team, making his second start this season) and Dan Orlovksy (complete stiff making his first start since 2008) have a lot of Patriots fans talking tough about the supposedly improved defense. The same crap happened last year. It's going to get even more absurd once the team finishes against the Redskins (Grossman) and Broncos (Tebow).

Anyone who argues we have a "good" pass defense is delusional.

However, they've played against good QB's this year and held their own for long stretches of the game (Manning in the 1st half, Roethlisberger in the 2nd half, Romo for the entire game). Other than those three, they haven't faced anyone of note this year. I don't think it's automatic at all that a good QB = loss for the Patriots. We were competitive in all three of those games.

Only time will tell if they can get it together in time for the playoffs. I don't think Bill playing musical chairs with the secondary has helped.

 

[Deus Irae]

The beauty of the comparison I use is that it's an apples to apples comparison because it's comparing the stats of the same QBs. In addition, it is also weighted towards the guys that played more (i.e. the stats of the QBs who have played the full season are weighted more heavily than the QBs who only have a few starts)

We know, even from just watching the Patriots, that the offense can have a huge impact on such things.

None of these things are really true measuring sticks. Hell, the overuse of this particular 'stat' is one of the reasons that CHFF has gone so far downhill in quality in recent years. I'll take Football Outsiders and the stats there over the QB rating, and even that is still just a very incomplete gloss.*



*For the record, F.O. currently has the Patriots pass defense rated at #26




P.S. All of this stuff also ignores the impact of the superior coaching and the impact of having to compete with the Patriots offense. Once these factors start evening out (i.e. playoffs, good offensive teams), the Patriots defense gets exposed.

 

[Mack Herron]

Anyone who argues we have a "good" pass defense is delusional.

However,

1) They've played against good QB's this year and held their own for long stretches of the game (Manning in the 1st half, Roethlisberger in the 2nd half, Romo for the entire game). Other than those three, they haven't faced anyone of note this year

2) If you want to know what a really bad defense is like, then watch Carolina play. They're 4-8 despite having the 8th ranked offense in the league.

The defense has been inconsistent throughout the year. They've shown they can play at a decent level at times, and at others they completely break down.

Only time will tell if they can get it together in time for the playoffs. I don't think Bill playing musical chairs with the secondary has helped.

Any bad defense can be good sometimes, and good defenses can be bad sometimes. Gotta judge the whole body of work, and consistency is what its about. As has been pointed out, this pass defense has not shut down even QBs dragged in off the street. In addition, McCourty, Chung and Ihedigbo are all injured. Would be nice to have everyone healthy and try to work on it with the best guys, but this has not been an option and time is running short. I expect BB will keep workin it and I hope finds some magic dust one of these weeks. The reality is, we won't really know how the defense will fare against a better QB until Jan.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Only if the Pats were up by 4 TDs in the fourth. The Pats over the last two weeks gave up most of their passing yards in garbage time. In fact, the Colts only had about 120 yards of total offense until garbage time. Giving up a lot of garbage time yards have happened multiple times this year including against the Dolphins, Raiders, Eagles, Indy, and the Jets.

because there is some magical entity that causes the Patriots to become lazy and un-inspired to cover their man when leading in the 4th quater...600 may be abit much but do you honestly think that at this point the defense would be able to match up with the Packers weapons (Jermichael Finley on a backer, Greg Jennings on a struggling McCourty, Nelson on Arrington/Molden) and hold Rodgers to under 400 yards?

 

[robbomango]

By having the top passing offense and the worst pass defense with a 10th ranked rush D BB seems to be signaling for teams to get into a shoot out, and that's exactly what we've seen.

It's the passing game as a whole that's our strength, BB's lazy approach to pass YDs allowed might be more intentional than we think. Not sure but if he's gonna be crap in one area this one makes the most sense and works to the teams advantage.

Having the worst running defense would give opponents exactly what they want, to control the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines.

 

[pork3]

It would also be about 35 million dollars over the cap.

Hogwash.
Better drafting with regards to defensive personnel and possibly a shift in defensive strategy was what I was referring to.
With our numerous draft picks, we've wasted several on players (the secondary being a prime example) that were eventually waived.

-Jamman

 

[Rob0729]

because there is some magical entity that causes the Patriots to become lazy and un-inspired to cover their man when leading in the 4th quater...600 may be abit much but do you honestly think that at this point the defense would be able to match up with the Packers weapons (Jermichael Finley on a backer, Greg Jennings on a struggling McCourty, Nelson on Arrington/Molden) and hold Rodgers to under 400 yards?

Why not? They held Philip Rivers (6th in passing yards), Tony Romo (7th in passing yards), Eli Manning (4th in passing yards right behind Rodgers), and Roethlisberger (9th in passing yards) to under 400 yards. In fact, the only two QBs who got 400 yards or more were Chad Henne and Vince Young and both of those games were blow outs and the they got most of their yards in garbage time.

It is possible that Rodgers could throw for 400 yards, but the only time the Pats allow a 400 yard passer is when the game is over early in the 4th quarter and the defense gets laxed.

There isn't a magical entity that has teams taking their foot off the gas in blow outs. It is a fairly common occurrence actually. The problem is that the Pats are consistently blowing out teams this year. It isn't a coincidence that the three highest scoring offenses are #32 (Patriots), #31 (Packers), and #27 (Saints) in yards allowed this year.

Lastly, the man-to-man stuff was experimentation this past weekend. It was the first time they used it more than a play here and there since about week #3.