Is Mankins play worth 6.5M more than Connolly

[Deus Irae]

Wrong.

You leave off one critical factor. Maybe it was an innocent mistake on your part, or maybe it was on purpose, who knows.

The offer was made BEFORE the Pats went 6-1 with Connolly at LG. Your post wrongly insinuates that the offer was made after seeing what life was like without him.

Once again, Cold Hard Football Facts' Kerry Byrne mentioned in the above noted article that the Pats OL is ranked #3 at this point with Mankins in there. They were ranked #1 after 7 games without him.

Overall, I do believe Mankins makes the line better. Depending on the salary cap in the future, I trust BB to make the right decisions for the team in its entirety.

I still believe last week was an anomaly and that the Pats Defense needs ALOT of help going forward. If there is a salary cap and if there is limited financial room, the highest priority would be on the defensive side of the ball. If there's room after that, then I'd love to wrap Mankins up for the next 6 years.

Your assertion is incorrect. According to Kraft, this happened while the team was in discussions with Mankins DURING the Connolly tenure.

 

[mgteich]

Do folks here really believe than the OL has not been much, much better with Mankins at LG?

Argue about Neal versus Connolly at RG if you must, but IMHO a healthy Neal has always been better than Connolly. HOWEVER, since Neal is injured every year for several games, we need Connolly available at RG. And yes, he is OK as a starter.

 

[shmessy]

Do folks here really believe than the OL has not been much, much better with Mankins at LG?

Argue about Neal versus Connolly at RG if you must, but IMHO a healthy Neal has always been better than Connolly. HOWEVER, since Neal is injured every year for several games, we need Connolly available at RG. And yes, he is OK as a starter.

No doubt it is better with Mankins.

And the defense could use several additional top players. Before the Jets game anomaly, many of its rankings had it in the bottom third of the league. The OL without Mankins never reached those depths. Once again, no less an authority than CHFF confirms this.

Even though I agree with the move, the trade of Seymour to Oakland hurt the D these two years far more than the missing of Mankins hurt the OL. The OL survived without Mankins far better than the DL did without Seymour. It's not even close when compared. And I would do the Seymour trade again in a heartbeat.

It's a choice of priorities and financial numbers which depends on the cap situation next year. I certainly hope the Pats and Mankins come to a long-term deal that doesn't screw either side.

 

[jbb9s]

????

We have a probowl quality LG who will be a free agent.

1) I agree that interior linemen coming out in the draft rarely command top dollar. Of course, we were interested in two such players in the 2009 draft. Both were gone by the time we picked in the first round.

3) Most LG's were LT's in college.

4) I strongly agree that the value of a probowl guard is a matter of supply and demand. How much would you expect to pay for a healthy all-pro quality LG who you know would fit in with the patriots system? Do YOU think we should pay that much?

5) It is said that Mankins was offered Mangold-type money. Is that really too much? I don't think so. We don't know the details of the offer, but the ballpark amount seems reasonable.
=======

BOTTOM LINE
The market will be set in the offseason. As in 2010, the patriots and Mankins will make their decisions. The first decision would be by the patriots. They could franchise Mankins. Then Mankins could decide whether to sign for ONLY $12M for one year.

Three seasons from today, the Patriots will have the highest paid slot wide receiver in history, the highest paid QB in history and a very expensive nose tackle and a very expensive ILB under contract (mayo 3 into a 5 yr deal). I really don't know whats going on with the new salary cap but I'd prefer those four aforementioned players instead of Mankins.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yes. Once again, not $6.5 million worth per year better that they could spend on other areas.

What's so hard to understand? With him they are better.

Read Chris Price's The Blueprint or that book by Steve Lavin regarding the economics of Belichick. Under the salary cap regime, there is a price for everything that they designate.

As has already been pointed out to you, the Patriots have already offered a large sum of cash to Mankins. Mangold-type money. The Patriots clearly felt that Mankins was worth the money. They also felt good enough about Connolly's play that Mankins IMMEDIATELY assumed the starting LG job as soon as he was back. I guess Belichick didn't read the CHFF Power Pig rankings. Anyway, reasons to sign Mankins...

1. He's our best OL.
2. He's a top 5 guard in the entire league.
3. He's in his prime.
4. He's not injury-prone.
5. He can usher in new era for Pats O-Line.
6. We just signed QB to shiny new $100M contract... let's protect him.
7. Pass protection clearly improved with him in.
8. Holes clearly opened more in the running game with him in.
9. O-Line has clearly taken on a nastier disposition with him in.

 

[mgteich]

We could do projected 2011 caps (with various CBA assumptions), but it is a little early for that. We'll discuss that after season when Miguel puts up the cap sheets.

I have followed the cap for many years. The only major effects on the 2011 cap could be Light and Mankins. Extensions of Welker, Meriweather, Koppen and/or Sanders could have some effect. The team has prepared well for the 2011 cap with many transactions and decisions in 2009 and 2010.

The patriots are very good at cap planning and budgeting by position and by unit. The cost of Mayo in 2013 is not a current concern or issue.

You suggest that Brady, Welker, Wilfork and Mayo are more important than Mankins. I agree. However, I don't see the relevance. Before the season started, we could have afforded a long-term $6.5M+ per year for Mankins. We still can.

Three seasons from today, the Patriots will have the highest paid slot wide receiver in history, the highest paid QB in history and a very expensive nose tackle and a very expensive ILB under contract (mayo 3 into a 5 yr deal). I really don't know whats going on with the new salary cap but I'd prefer those four aforementioned players instead of Mankins.

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

I think he gets resigned. First, its not a matter of Mankins vs. Connolly. Its a matter of Mankins/Connolly vs. Connolly/Wendell. Second, the org has already offered him major money so we know what they value him at. Third, the fact that he came back early suggests that the two sides have reached some sort of understanding that Mankins approves of. I mean, why would he risk injury playing for nothing?

 

[satz]

1) Even though everyone is saying he got a mangold type numbers i am yet to hear the specific like was it back loaded or what the signing bonus was.
Can one of you post that. I cannot find it.

2)THe is the best OL in our team so i am confused as the cost thing here. He is top 2-3 gaurd in the league now.He is young durable and started from a rookie.

3)Some poster make it sound like it so very easy to find a great gaurd and every team has 1 or 2.Its is not.Our whole offence works because of run and playaction. Before mankins we can only run on the right side which made other teams load on that side.But being able to run on both side is helping. If some one honestly thinks a rookie is going do it good luck,

4)I do not understand the money and value .In that case they should have let Vince go and played Ron brace there with the argument is vince worth 9 million more than brace. Same goes for brady.Is brady worth 20million over Hoyer.they can field a team for 20 million and call it a day.

 

[jbb9s]

You suggest that Brady, Welker, Wilfork and Mayo are more important than Mankins. I agree. However, I don't see the relevance. Before the season started, we could have afforded a long-term $6.5M+ per year for Mankins. We still can.

How do you know that Mankins and his agent aren't going to raise their asking price next off-season?

How do you know the Patriots will make the same offer (or better) than they already did? They usually don't blink when they go in with their final and best.

I bet that Mankins will become the highest paid guard in the history of the NFL next year. Think about it: in the fall, he only had one team to negotiate with. Now he will have 31 other teams throwing in offers. Its a huge swing in leverage.

 

[jbb9s]

Third, the fact that he came back early suggests that the two sides have reached some sort of understanding that Mankins approves of. I mean, why would he risk injury playing for nothing?

there is a term out there called "accrued season." It has to do with free agency. I'd google it.

 

[mgteich]

Reading compensation is a wonderful thing.

I never said that Mankins would sign or that the patriots would pony up the amount needed to sign him. I only said that the patriots could afford $6.5M a year before the season and can still afford at least that much.

If you believe that the patriots always go in with their final offer, then you are certainly free to believe that. It is indeed possible that the patriots are of the very few (only) teams in the league that refuses to negotiate with players and offers only take it or leave it contract offers. Personally, I don't think that this is the case. The Krafts are much better business folks that such a strategy would suggest.

How do you know that Mankins and his agent aren't going to raise their asking price next off-season?

How do you know the Patriots will make the same offer (or better) than they already did? They usually don't blink when they go in with their final and best.

I bet that Mankins will become the highest paid guard in the history of the NFL next year. Think about it: in the fall, he only had one team to negotiate with. Now he will have 31 other teams throwing in offers. Its a huge swing in leverage.

 

[jbb9s]

Reading compensation is a wonderful thing.

I never said that Mankins would sign or that the patriots would pony up the amount needed to sign him. I only said that the patriots could afford $6.5M a year before the season and can still afford at least that much.

If you believe that the patriots always go in with their final offer, then you are certainly free to believe that. It is indeed possible that the patriots are of the very few (only) teams in the league that refuses to negotiate with players and offers only take it or leave it contract offers. Personally, I don't think that this is the case. The Krafts are much better business folks that such a strategy would suggest.

you are being ridiculous. The patriots probably made Mankins offers in April, June, July and August and the one we heard about was after several months of negotiation. Whoever said they just came out and said "hey man, here is Mangold money and no, we won't listen to any counters"?

let me put this another way.

Mankins had an agent. The agent went to Mankins around week 3 or 4 and said "hey man you have 2 options"

(A) you can accept their offer. negotiating has run its course and these are the terms.

(B) you can go back without signing the long term deal, accrue a season, and I think you can make $X next off season.

Since Mankins went with option (B), I will have to assume that $X is greater than what Kraft offered, throwing in 12 months discount on time value of money on the big bonus.

If Kraft wasn't at his final and best, then he probably would have made it eventually so he could actually have a probowl guard in the lineup for the first half of a season, dont you think?

 

[shmessy]

Reading compensation is a wonderful thing.

So is reading comprehension.

 

[mgteich]

......

so is reading comprehension.

 

[mgteich]

You may be correct that Mankins is worth no more to the patriots than when they made their last offer. I disagree.

Perhaps seeing the difference with and without Mankins has not increased the value to the patriots at all.

Perhaps losing Neal yet again (and Kaczur) does not increase the value of this injury free all-pro quality guard.

Yes, perhaps you are correct in your belief that the value of Mankins to the patriots ahs not increased. I just ahppen to disagree.
==============
Personally, I think that your are wrong. But this is merely my personal opinion. To me, after watching the situation for the past many weeks, I strongly believe that our #1 issue going into this offseason is the re-signing of Mankins and Light.

Perhaps the cost to the patriots will be more than if Mankins were locked up last offseason, perhaps not. The market will tell us. HOWEVER, I don't for one short second believe the best and final offer by the patriots offered in the coming offseason will not be higher than that of last offseason.

BOTTOM LINE
We have a great and improving team. The whole defense is coming back PLUS Bodden (perhaps with a Warren for Warren switch). We have a fine offense that needs to bring in a midlevel running back to augment the two we have.

And OUR TEAM IS LIKELY TO BETTER IN 2011 THAN IN 2010 and that is before adding any 2011 draft choices (we will ahve 5 picks in the top 100).

There is only one thing missing from this picture. Two of key offensive players are free agents: Light and Koppen. Belichick has shown that he knows how to take care of business. He shown that by bringing re-signing or extending Brady, Wilfork and Bodden. Now it is time to pony up for Light and Mankins.

you are being ridiculous. The patriots probably made Mankins offers in April, June, July and August and the one we heard about was after several months of negotiation. Whoever said they just came out and said "hey man, here is Mangold money and no, we won't listen to any counters"?

let me put this another way.

Mankins had an agent. The agent went to Mankins around week 3 or 4 and said "hey man you have 2 options"

(A) you can accept their offer. negotiating has run its course and these are the terms.

(B) you can go back without signing the long term deal, accrue a season, and I think you can make $X next off season.

Since Mankins went with option (B), I will have to assume that $X is greater than what Kraft offered, throwing in 12 months discount on time value of money on the big bonus.

If Kraft wasn't at his final and best, then he probably would have made it eventually so he could actually have a probowl guard in the lineup for the first half of a season, dont you think?

 

[Ring 6]

What I use to price players is a simple economic theory called supply and demand. The draft is a reflection of demand.

so in last year's draft, there were only 3 guards picked in the first 2 rounds, I think the kid of of UMASS was basically the last pick of the 2nd round, so lets say 2 guards in the top 60 picks and 3 guards in the first 64 picks.

So what i'd conclude is that either (A) 29 teams that passed twice on guards in the first two rounds have such a badass group of talent at that position (considering you play 2 guards, that mean 58 pro-bowl level guards are out there) or (B) GMs don't want to pay guards top money awarded to early draft picks

Actually 2nd round picks are huge bargains. If your theory were true, you would see a lot of Gs drafted in the 2nd round

 

[VJCPatriot]

There is only one thing missing from this picture. Two of key offensive players are free agents: Light and Koppen. Belichick has shown that he knows how to take care of business. He shown that by bringing re-signing or extending Brady, Wilfork and Bodden. Now it is time to pony up for Light and Mankins.

1. Brady is the franchise and Wilfork is the anchor to the defense. Those guys were indispensable.
2. Bodden was signed at a bargain rate and next year he'll play RCB across from McCourty.
3. Mankins held out for the same reasons he is playing out the rest of the season. The amount of $$$ he wanted and what the Pats were willing to offer was obviously wide enough that a contract didn't get done. He is playing to earn that accrued year for his shot at free agency.
4. I have heard reports that Mankins said some regrettable things about the Krafts in the heat of negotiations and that's the reason the Pats pulled their offer.
5. Mankins is a really good guard, but guards are replaceable. When Mankins went down Connolly stepped in and the Pats OL performed at the #1 level in the NFL according to CHFF's numbers (how accurate they are, who knows). In any case when Neal went down, that's when Mankins became absolutely necessary to have. Before that he was a luxury. Right now he is a necessity.
6. When Neal returns to healthy status, Mankins will be a luxury again. The Pats may well choose to draft another guard if Mankins is still looking for that ridiculous 8M+ per season number. Remember the divide between Branch's asking price and the Pats offer wasn't that big, but pride makes people do strange things. Branch was exiled to Seattle and he came back and hasn't come back much richer for the experience except that he now has a greater appreciation than ever what a great QB like Tom Brady can do for him.
7. What makes you believe that Mankins would accept 6.5M per when the offer taken off the table was rumored at 7M+ and laughed at by Mankins' agent?

 

[shmessy]

1. Brady is the franchise and Wilfork is the anchor to the defense. Those guys were indispensable.
2. Bodden was signed at a bargain rate and next year he'll play RCB across from McCourty.
3. Mankins held out for the same reasons he is playing out the rest of the season. The amount of $$$ he wanted and what the Pats were willing to offer was obviously wide enough that a contract didn't get done. He is playing to earn that accrued year for his shot at free agency.
4. I have heard reports that Mankins said some regrettable things about the Krafts in the heat of negotiations and that's the reason the Pats pulled their offer.
5. Mankins is a really good guard, but guards are replaceable. When Mankins went down Connolly stepped in and the Pats OL performed at the #1 level in the NFL according to CHFF's numbers (how accurate they are, who knows). In any case when Neal went down, that's when Mankins became absolutely necessary to have. Before that he was a luxury. Right now he is a necessity.
6. When Neal returns to healthy status, Mankins will be a luxury again. The Pats may well choose to draft another guard if Mankins is still looking for that ridiculous 8M+ per season number. Remember the divide between Branch's asking price and the Pats offer wasn't that big, but pride makes people do strange things. Branch was exiled to Seattle and he came back and hasn't come back much richer for the experience except that he now has a greater appreciation than ever what a great QB like Tom Brady can do for him.
7. What makes you believe that Mankins would accept 6.5M per when the offer taken off the table was rumored at 7M+ and laughed at by Mankins' agent?

Don't hold your breath waiting for Neal next year.

He was on the fence about retiring before this year and this latest injury to the IR isn't going to make that go better.

Kazcur is a more likely possibility to come back.

 

[captain stone]

As has already been pointed out to you, the Patriots have already offered a large sum of cash to Mankins. Mangold-type money. The Patriots clearly felt that Mankins was worth the money. They also felt good enough about Connolly's play that Mankins IMMEDIATELY assumed the starting LG job as soon as he was back. I guess Belichick didn't read the CHFF Power Pig rankings. Anyway, reasons to sign Mankins...

1. He's our best OL.
2. He's a top 5 guard in the entire league.
3. He's in his prime.
4. He's not injury-prone.
5. He can usher in new era for Pats O-Line.
6. We just signed QB to shiny new $100M contract... let's protect him.
7. Pass protection clearly improved with him in.
8. Holes clearly opened more in the running game with him in.
9. O-Line has clearly taken on a nastier disposition with him in.

This sums-up the answer to the OP's question perfectly.
(Plus one more: exc. for Vollmer, Bill's forgotten how to draft good OLmen since Mankins 5 years ago.
There is nobody - zero, zip, nada - on the current roster worthy of starting in Mankins' place.)

Class dismissed. Please drive home carefully.

 

[GrogansHeros]

Yes.....Sign him now:rocker::rocker::rocker: