Interesting Scenario for Week 17: Would BB do it?

[Metaphors]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

I keep hearing people say that if we "let" the phins win, the Jets are pretty much done? Is this true?

Explain and elaborate please!

False. Jets would win tiebreaker with Fins on conference record. The Jets problem is that they lose tiebreakers to both the Bolts and Jags on SOV...so if they go 10-6, there is a fairly good chance they don't make it.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Who cares? 14-2 is so much better than 13-3 (assuming the Patriots get to 13-2 before the Phins game, that is)

 

[The_Riddler]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Hopefully we can take care of business this Sunday and not have to sweat anything out against the Bills (@Buffalo) or Fins. As it stands now, has anyone seen the remaining 2 games for Pitt after this week? Talk about layups (Carolina and Cleveland). Like usual the Steelers had one of the easiest schedules in football, always works out that way for them somehow.

So let's assume Pitt wins out, we HAVE to get 2 of these next 3 or it could be another trip to Heinz field for another AFCCG which isn't something any of us want to face given the fact that the odds of them losing 3 straight AFC title games to us on their home field is slim to none.

 

[brdmaverick]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

So let's assume Pitt wins out, we HAVE to get 2 of these next 3 or it could be another trip to Heinz field for another AFCCG which isn't something any of us want to face given the fact that the odds of them losing 3 straight AFC title games to us on their home field is slim to none.

You are correct, the odds of winning 3 straight AFC title games on the road in Pittsburgh is not good.

However, the odds of winning 3 straight AFC title games on the road in Pittsburgh GIVEN THAT WE HAVE ALREADY WON THE FIRST TWO is a whole lot better.

It's like making a statement on the Saturday before the Super Bowl that the Pats would lose to the Giants because it's highly improbable that a team would go 19-0. Wait, the Pats did lose to the Giants, maybe that's why, DOH!?!?!

 

[sbpatfan]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

The crazy Dolphins over Jets scenario can only happen if the Jets lose out on all three games (Steelers, Bears, Bills). The Dolphins need to win out versus the (Bills, Lions, Patriots). Even if the Jets lose to the Bears and the Dolphins win out the Jets would still make it if they beat the Bills in week 17. Both week 17 games are currently at 1:00 PM also. Also, week 17 could still have playoff implications for the number 1 seed if the Patriots were to lose to Green Bay / Buffalo with the Steelers winning out.

This whole scenario is borderline ******ed and I don't think theres any chance the Patriots throw a game to keep a team out of the playoffs that they might not even see. What would that teach the young locker room?

 

[sbpatfan]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

You are correct, the odds of winning 3 straight AFC title games on the road in Pittsburgh is not good.

However, the odds of winning 3 straight AFC title games on the road in Pittsburgh GIVEN THAT WE HAVE ALREADY WON THE FIRST TWO is a whole lot better.

It's like making a statement on the Saturday before the Super Bowl that the Pats would lose to the Giants because it's highly improbable that a team would go 19-0. Wait, the Pats did lose to the Giants, maybe that's why, DOH!?!?!

Not to mention previous game outcomes have no effect on the current one. Would the Patriots' odds of winning on the road in Pitt signifigantly increase if they lost the previous two AFCCG there? Every game is different. Although, you could make a point the home field advantage isn't much of an advantage for Pitt when NE comes to town considering they are 0-2 in that scenario and Brady is 6-1 versus Pittsburgh.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Hopefully we can take care of business this Sunday and not have to sweat anything out against the Bills (@Buffalo) or Fins. As it stands now, has anyone seen the remaining 2 games for Pitt after this week? Talk about layups (Carolina and Cleveland). Like usual the Steelers had one of the easiest schedules in football, always works out that way for them somehow.

So let's assume Pitt wins out, we HAVE to get 2 of these next 3 or it could be another trip to Heinz field for another AFCCG which isn't something any of us want to face given the fact that the odds of them losing 3 straight AFC title games to us on their home field is slim to none.

You really think we can't get the top seed? It shouldn't even be a question and if we do fail to do so then we deserve to lose in the playoffs, we are 11-2 with 3 punching bags left to beat up on.

Realistically Pittsburgh has a better chance of losing to NYJ than we do losing to GB, BUF sucks and we won't lose our undefeated home season to MIA.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

False. Jets would win tiebreaker with Fins on conference record. The Jets problem is that they lose tiebreakers to both the Bolts and Jags on SOV...so if they go 10-6, there is a fairly good chance they don't make it.

I think you've mixed up the order of tie-breakers. Head-to-head is first, and they were 1-1 against each other. The second tie-breaker is division record. Conference record is the 4th tie-breaker behind common games.

The Jets are 3-2 in the division with 1 game left against Buffalo. The Dolphins are 2-2 with 2 games left, against Buffalo and New England in the last week. If the Jets lost out, they'd be 3-3 in the division. If the Dolphins won out, they'd be 4-2 in the division, thus the Dophins would get the tie-breaker advantage.

Of course this only matters if the Jets implode and lose their last 3 games. The Dolphins could make it interesting if they do though. They play Buffalo and Detroit while the Jets play the Steelers and the Bears. It could set up a week 17 scenario where the Jets must win to make it.

 

[patsfan13]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

I want all 3 games. IF the Pats win the next 2 and clinches the bye BB will want them to play a game that will keep the team sharp. 2 weeks without a game will hurt their preparedness for the divisional round.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

I think you've mixed up the order of tie-breakers. Head-to-head is first, and they were 1-1 against each other. The second tie-breaker is division record. Conference record is the 4th tie-breaker behind common games.

The Jets are 3-2 in the division with 1 game left against Buffalo. The Dolphins are 2-2 with 2 games left, against Buffalo and New England in the last week. If the Jets lost out, they'd be 3-3 in the division. If the Dolphins won out, they'd be 4-2 in the division, thus the Dophins would get the tie-breaker advantage.

Of course this only matters if the Jets implode and lose their last 3 games. The Dolphins could make it interesting if they do though. They play Buffalo and Detroit while the Jets play the Steelers and the Bears. It could set up a week 17 scenario where the Jets must win to make it.

Nope. I included a Jets win against Buffalo to get to 10 wins and the Fins winning out to get to 10 wins...which is the most likely way for a tie to occur. In that case, they tie head2head, division and common games. The Fins lose on conference record.

Regardless, I agree with most folks that the Pats play the game without regard to Fins/Jets in the playoffs.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Nope. I included a Jets win against Buffalo to get to 10 wins and the Fins winning out to get to 10 wins...which is the most likely way for a tie to occur. In that case, they tie head2head, division and common games. The Fins lose on conference record.

Regardless, I agree with most folks that the Pats play the game without regard to Fins/Jets in the playoffs.

Ahhh k gotcha. I'm a bit brain-dead as well, thought the Jets were ahead 3 games but they're not.

 

[jmt57]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

I keep hearing people say that if we "let" the phins win, the Jets are pretty much done? Is this true?

Explain and elaborate please!

From what I have read the basic concept is that if the Pats win the next two games, that would mean they clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The only team that could tie their record would be Pittsburgh, and the Pats would win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head games, their win at Pittsburgh. A win or a loss in week 17 would not matter to the Pats in that scenario.

Next assumption would be that the Jets lose their next two games (Steelers, Bears) while the Dolphins win their next two games (Bills, Lions). That would mean the Jets and Dolphins would be tied at 9-6 entering the final weekend.

The idea is if Miami wins that final game it could possibly force the Jets out of the playoffs. As you can see a whole lot would have to happen between now and then to presume that if Miami wins that game then the Jets would not make the playoffs.


More on the specifics can be found here:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...interesting-scenario-week-17-would-bb-do.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/703397-hypothetical-question.html
Throw for a loss?: Eric Wilbur's Boston Sports Blog

 

[alvinnf]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

You really think we can't get the top seed? It shouldn't even be a question and if we do fail to do so then we deserve to lose in the playoffs, we are 11-2 with 3 punching bags left to beat up on.

Realistically Pittsburgh has a better chance of losing to NYJ than we do losing to GB, BUF sucks and we won't lose our undefeated home season to MIA.

Wow, sorry but could'nt get by this post...... GB has a ton of talent on their roster. Buffalo has been playing really tough for six weeks(they have had nothing to play for!). Cameron Wake and the rest of the Dolphins have been great, sans the qb.
Let's hope homefield does'nt rest on the Dolphins game, I for one would love to have a game at hand for that one.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

From what I have read the basic concept is that if the Pats win the next two games, that would mean they clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The only team that could tie their record would be Pittsburgh, and the Pats would win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head games, their win at Pittsburgh. A win or a loss in week 17 would not matter to the Pats in that scenario.

Next assumption would be that the Jets lose their next two games (Steelers, Bears) while the Dolphins win their next two games (Bills, Lions). That would mean the Jets and Dolphins would be tied at 9-6 entering the final weekend.

The idea is if Miami wins that final game it could possibly force the Jets out of the playoffs. As you can see a whole lot would have to happen between now and then to presume that if Miami wins that game then the Jets would not make the playoffs.

Couple of mitigating circumstances though:
1) The Jets would have to lose to the Bills at home
2) The Bills are the walking wounded, with Lee Evans the latest to go on IR
3) The Bills/Jets and Fins/Pats both play at 1pm so there is no knowing at the time if dumping the Fins game would screw the Jets
4) It is also likely that the Jags and/or Bolts (both with tiebreaker advantages) will make the whole thing moot

 

[jmt57]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Couple of mitigating circumstances though:
1) The Jets would have to lose to the Bills at home
2) The Bills are the walking wounded, with Lee Evans the latest to go on IR
3) The Bills/Jets and Fins/Pats both play at 1pm so there is no knowing at the time if dumping the Fins game would screw the Jets
4) It is also likely that the Jags and/or Bolts (both with tiebreaker advantages) will make the whole thing moot

Very good points. I was just trying to help the OP out with his original question. I hadn't dug that deep, but from what you just placed out there it looks even more unlikely than simply presuming two Jet losses and two Dolphin wins - which in itself is assuming a lot. Thanks for the clarification; I was wondering about the Jags or Chargers too - as well as the Colts.

 

[VectorPrime]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Wow, sorry but could'nt get by this post...... GB has a ton of talent on their roster. Buffalo has been playing really tough for six weeks(they have had nothing to play for!). Cameron Wake and the rest of the Dolphins have been great, sans the qb.
Let's hope homefield does'nt rest on the Dolphins game, I for one would love to have a game at hand for that one.

Two Words:

Matt Flynn

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

Couple of mitigating circumstances though:
1) The Jets would have to lose to the Bills at home
2) The Bills are the walking wounded, with Lee Evans the latest to go on IR
3) The Bills/Jets and Fins/Pats both play at 1pm so there is no knowing at the time if dumping the Fins game would screw the Jets
4) It is also likely that the Jags and/or Bolts (both with tiebreaker advantages) will make the whole thing moot

The great equalizer is Mark Sanchez's flimsy arm. If it's cold and windy (and it'll be January in New York), I could see them choking that game away, especially with the pressure that would be on them.

Last season, Sanchez was basically playing with house money by the time they got to the play-offs. Yes, they were high-profile games but he wasn't expected to do well as a rookie QB for a team that got a play-off spot as a gift. But he's been struggling since a hot start, and he seemed terrified of the moment against the Patriots.

It's easy to play in big-pressure situations when there's no pressure on you. But now the pressure and expectations are on for the Jets, and they seem very affected by it, playing not to lose instead of playing to win. If they don't win against the Bears, the pressure could crush them in that last week.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Re: Question? Playoffs....

From what I have read the basic concept is that if the Pats win the next two games, that would mean they clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The only team that could tie their record would be Pittsburgh, and the Pats would win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head games, their win at Pittsburgh. A win or a loss in week 17 would not matter to the Pats in that scenario.

Next assumption would be that the Jets lose their next two games (Steelers, Bears) while the Dolphins win their next two games (Bills, Lions). That would mean the Jets and Dolphins would be tied at 9-6 entering the final weekend.

The idea is if Miami wins that final game it could possibly force the Jets out of the playoffs. As you can see a whole lot would have to happen between now and then to presume that if Miami wins that game then the Jets would not make the playoffs.


More on the specifics can be found here:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...interesting-scenario-week-17-would-bb-do.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/703397-hypothetical-question.html
Throw for a loss?: Eric Wilbur's Boston Sports Blog

And Miami has a much easier last 3 games than the Jets. It'll be grand if they win the next 2 and Jets lose their next 2... or 3! Thanks guys for the insight.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Hypothetical situation

say the dolphins win the next 2 games, the jets lose the next 2 games... Sd has won the west, Jax wins the south... kc is eliminated.. it comes to week 17 the jets would need to win and the dolphins to lose... The dolphins play the pats, do you think just suppose with homefield all wrapped up, and nothing to play for.. would Belichick want to stick it to the jets and scale back and try not to win the game.. Its a double edge problem.. would love to see the jets get shut out of the postseason, but if we dont go all out against the dolphins, say the dolphins get hot it could come back to bite us in the playoffs.. I say take my chances , and let the jets sit home and plan the next hard knocks episode..

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Re: Hypothetical situation

This has been posted several times with a predictably mixed response. Personally, I think the Pats would not change their philosophy regardless of the opponent, since it wouldn't affect their seeding.

Personally, I would rather have the Jets in the playoffs as the sixth seed, as they could potentially end up in Foxboro for Nightmare in Massachusetts, Part II.