If the Pats are average, they go 8-8. How much better than average is this team? Below is an 8-8 prediction game by game, with the 8 most likely wins and the 8 most likely losses. Its very uncommon in the BB era that we lose any of the 8 most likely wins, so if we look at the 8 toughest games, how many of them we win makes or breaks the season, the bye, homefield, etc. 1 Sep 09 NE @ NYJ loss 2 Sep 16 SD @ NE loss 3 Sep 23 BUF @ NE win 4 Oct 01 NE @ CIN loss 5 Oct 07 CLE @ NE win 6 Oct 14 NE @ DAL loss 7 Oct 21 NE @ MIA loss 8 Oct 28 WAS @ NE win 9 Nov 04 NE @ IND loss 10 Bye 11 Nov 18 NE @ BUF loss 12 Nov 25 PHI @ NE win 13 Dec 03 NE @ BAL loss 14 Dec 09 PIT @ NE win 15 Dec 16 NYJ @ NE win 16 Dec 23 MIA @ NE win 17 Dec 29 NE @ NYG win We should be able to track against this all season. It wasnt that hard to pick wins and losses from an average team perspective. An 8-8 team should be 3-3 in the division. I went heavily with home field, being 7-1 at home, 1-7 away. Basically outside of the division, we beat the worst 2 teams on the road, and lose to the best 2 at home. What is interesting is this approach gives us a 2-5 and 3-7 start. If "success" is drawn at above or below 12-4, by this method we would expect to finish winning 5 of the last 6 and 6 of the last 9. That means a start of 6-1 or 7-3 has us on track for 12-4. To be 12-4 we should win 4 of the 7 "losses" in the first 10 games, Jets, SD, Cincy, Dallas, Miami, Buff, Indy. I like those chances, and actually think we win at least 5 of those. I think this team is as good as the 04 and 05 teams, so I expect to be able to go 14-2. Add Baltimore to the 7 out of the first 10, and we need to win 6 of them to go 14-2. I do not see us losing to the Jets, Fins or Bills (I expect a divsion sweep) nor to Cincy or Dallas. Based on that we would need to win one of Indy, Baltimore or SD to be 14-2 (assuming everything else holds) The first 10 weeks of the season, with 6 road games, and SD at home will go along way toward where we stand to a bye and homefield.