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If True, this is our Trade Down opporunity

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BelichickFan, Apr 24, 2007.

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  1. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Yeah, Pro Football Talk, blah, blah, blah, but this happens a lot with QB so it's VERY possible :

    If a team needing a young QB like the Raiders, Browns, Detriot, etc, wants to get a non QB in the first round then come back and still get their guy, #24 or #28 could look good to them.

    "BECK, KOLB HEADING TO ROUND ONE?

    We reported on Monday that there's a feeling in some league circles that the second tier of quarterbacks in the 2007 draft, Michigan State's Drew Stanton, Stanford's Trent Edwards, BYU's John Beck, and Houston's Kevin Kolb, could all be gone by the end of round two.

    We're now told that multiple teams drafting in the first 15 picks have given round-one grades to Beck and Kolb. At least one team with a top-15 pick has Beck listed as a top-ten player. (Another source says that this is a lie, but we don't know what the hell to believe this time of year.)

    Does this mean that Beck or Kolb will definitely be drafted in round one? No, because the teams who have given them first-round grades might not pick a passer in round one.

    But we think it increases the chances that someone will try to trade into the bottom of round one to get Beck or Kolb before the Raiders (if they don't draft JaMarcus Russell at No. 1 overall), the Lions (if they don't draft Russell or Brady Quinn at No. 2), or the Browns (ditto) get a crack at them."
  2. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    To be honest I haven't even looked at a single QB evaluation until today. Both Beck and Kolb seem to be a little short for round 1 NFL Standards (6'2 & '6'3).

    But the best case scenario for the Pats if they want to trade back is that some team is hot for one of these QBs (ala Kyle Boller, try to say Kyle Boller without laughing, it is not easy). The other alternative is if Lynch falls and some team trades up to grab him. The nice thing about RBs is they can contribute immediately.

    Trading back opens a lot of doors, they could get a 2 and 3 this year or stockpile for next year, maybe even get another round 1 pick for 2008. If Harris is a guy they have locked in on he should be available around pick 45-55 so trading back makes a lot of sense.

    With almost every draft I would love to have as many picks between 40-70 as possible, there always seems to be good players in this range.
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2007
  3. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Unless someone that they didn't expect to be there falls into thier laps (ala Vince), I think that the Pats will trade at least one of the first rounders for either a 2 and a 4th or a first next year. IF they want Harris as advertised, then he can be had in the top of the second round.
  4. rsd

    rsd Rookie

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    I would definitely do a 2nd this year and a 1st next year for one of the 1st rounders (ala Boller) assuming the Pats can get their guy in the 2nd.
  5. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Heck, I'd even do it for a 2nd next year if you're talking about trading down just a handful of spots.

    I do think a team trading up from the top of the 2nd for a QB is one of the likeliest Pats' trade scenarios. In fact, I will use this opportunity to shamelessly plug an earlier thread of mine on who might prompt other teams to trade up from the second:

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=53747
  6. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    If we're talking about one of those picks like Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland then I would do their #2 this year and next for the #24 pick - although I have a feeling Belioli would pull a little more out of it. Their #2 next year has a really good chance to be a top ten #2.
  7. 14thDragon

    14thDragon Rookie

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    Well if go by the value chart (which is just for a rough guide) moving from the top of the second into the 28 slot would be at the cost of about a third rounder, toss in that if you push it off a year the ROT is to subtract a round, a second this and second next year comes out to be about right.

    I do like the thought of high second next year to play with.
  8. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Isn't Beck 26 years old already? And Kolb played in that funky Houston offense. It could be difficult to project him in most NFL offenses.
  9. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    Teams do funny things for QB. Tim Couch played in a weird offense and went #1 overall - of course that didn't work out but good QB are worth their weight in gold and teams will reach and project quite a bit for them.
  10. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I have no problem with reaching a good bit for a QB, because they are so important, but there has to be limits.
    Kolb in the 2nd round is a big reach, but it is justifiable to a point, especially if you ignore the fac tthat he is a product of a wierd offense and who knows if he can read defenses. But Kolb in the first is far too great a reach.

    Taking a 25-26 year old QB in the first round is risky, but for the right player I might do it. I'm just not sure of Beck's arm strength or ability to read defenses.
  11. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    The value chart increases on round if the pick is delayed for one year. So a third this year becomes a second next year. That's the way it's suppose to work in theory.
  12. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    I still am not sure why so many people are hot-to-trot about moving down. Since BB/SP took over, they have the best track record with first rounders in the league, regardless of draft position. In addition to that, first rounders are locked up for an extra year, per the new CBA. On top of all of that, NE's own track record in any non-1 round is 50% at best.

    Why would anyone trade a certainty for two 50-50 at best guys? It isn't as if a guy at 28 costs that much more than a guy at 58.

    Other than NE getting an offer it can't refuse - like the Balt offers in 2003 and 2004 - just take the best guy available.
  13. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Would you accept losing Asante in a trade up to grab LaRon Landry?

    How would you feel if one of the top 7 teams offered thier high pick in trade for Asante and possibly throw in some other late pick or a late rounder enxt year and in turn we selected LaRon Landry with the pick to take instead of Samuel?.

    We would lose a veteran corner for a guy who has never played an NFL down,but then again we would lose a whining crybaby corner who wants too much money and may handicap us with the salary cap for years ahead and of whom may be overated with just one above average season vs. a guy like Landry who looks to be the real deal in our defense for years ahead.

    Would you be content or angry if it happened?
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2007
  14. moosekill

    moosekill Rookie

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    I completely agree. In addition, how many holes do the Patriots really have?? Drafting in the first round you get 2 very good picks who will make the team, dropping down it becomes more and more of a crap shoot. I personally still think they will move up and get a 15ish pick, but we shall see on Saturday.
  15. Don Kipines

    Don Kipines Rookie

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    Trading down with the hopes of getting Harris is also risky. The only teams that don't have a crying need for a linebacker between 28 and about 40 are Miami and maybe Chicago. You can say that Tampa, Indy and Chicago use those lighter Tampa-2-type linebackers, but I wouldn't feel safe waiting around for the second-ranked ILB.
  16. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    The reason I am interested in trading down is I have about 10 guys who I would like to get with our #1s who will probably be there and we could likely still get one early in round 2 and get the extra trade value in addition. That said, I realize the Patriots may not be interested in some of the guys I like and their list could be a lot shorter.
  17. Box_O_Rocks

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    The primary reason to trade down is to gain an extra first day pick, either this year or next. Trying to mock out which kids are drafted when, there are some kids who could really help the club looking like second rounders. If the choice is an extra contract year for one player, or a chance to land two lower rated players who seem a better fit for the club, I'd forego the extra year.
  18. 14thDragon

    14thDragon Rookie

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    I really do not see anyone at 15 worth going after. But that is me. I am all for trading down this year for a pick next year. The patriots might not have a lot of holes right now, but next year after Gay, Samuel, Wilson and likely Washington or Stallworth have left for FA money, and I would not be at all suprised to see Bruschi, Harrison, and Brown retire should the patriots win the superbowl, having an extra second next year would certainly be a handy bullet in the gun.

    Well, I would say the Chargers are pretty set for LB. The Ravens are set at ILB. Bears are set at ILB. Indy needs a WOLB. Raiders are not looking for defensive help right now. Lions will need a QB. Browns, a possiblity, but they just used a high draft pick on a LB last year, but certainly a possiblity. Arizona, Minny and Miami are not really hurting at LB and really need help in other areas more.

    Which is why Harris usally falls into that middle 2nd round where ILB are more often taken. He is currently considered a bit one dimentional. Which is not a bad thing for the Patriots since they can use that one run stuffing dimention as they teach him the rest.
  19. zarakotas5

    zarakotas5 Rookie

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    To the original question: I absolutely see this as a possibility. The "blue-chippers" Russell and Quinn are the prizes, and I can't really believe that the majority of people are really sold on them as franchise quarterbacks. With teams of scouts, I imagine the perceived gap between these two and the next tier slowly lessens.

    Add that to next year's crop (Blue chippers expected to be Brohm, Henne, and Brennan) and the present state of QB prospects isn't exactly the Gold Rush days. With a solid 1/4 to 1/3 of the league needing a QB now/soon, supply is outweighed by demand. Enough so that teams may be willing to pay more than they should.
  20. Handel

    Handel Rookie

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    I think Pats have more chance to trade up than trade down. Why?

    According to many scouts and GMs, this draft has few 1st round graded players (18 according Bill Polian). I think Belioli could trade up in the late teens, early twenties to get one one last 1st round graded guys. If they get a guy before 16, it will be possible for them to sign them for 6 years (1-16: max 6, 17-32, max. 5) instead of 5 years.
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