Idle thouughts - The "what a difference a week makes" edition

[patfanken]

Thanks as always, PFK. One aside: you call Butler a "poor man's Revis." Makes me wonder whether/how the Pats will keep him when his Rookie Contract is up. The national announcers fawn all over him and he's going to expect (and deserve) a payday. Hope he's reasonable.

I'm not sure but I think the Pats only have him under contract for another season. IIRC, with first round picks you get 5 years. With other draft picks its 4 years. However I'm not sure how it works with UDFA signings. It could be that the Pats control their services only 3 years before they become FA's I'm not sure exactly.

At any rate, like a guy like DLewis, Butler is due for a huge raise in the very near future. He has not only proven to be a very good CB who is also a hard working, intelligent player in the true Patriot mold; he has shown his is also quite durable.....so far (cross fingers...and toes).

Just how much of a raise will be the big question. I'm not sure the Pats will be willing to go with the $8-12MM/yr contract that top CB's seem to be getting after just one year, but I wouldn't be surprise to see them be willing to sign him to the kind of extension that would pay him in the 5-7 range for 3 years which will make him a bargain in comparison, yet still get him back on the open market before he's 30.

 

[BelichickFan]

Thanks as always, PFK. One aside: you call Butler a "poor man's Revis." Makes me wonder whether/how the Pats will keep him when his Rookie Contract is up. The national announcers fawn all over him and he's going to expect (and deserve) a payday. Hope he's reasonable.

Miguel has outlined it here : (he's not allowed to redo his contract until this offseason) :

CapSpace=$1,825,615 ‏@patscap Dec 11
If Malcolm Butler plays the 2017 season under the RFA tender, he will become an UFA in March 2018. 2015 Franchise tag for CB=13.075m

CapSpace=$1,825,615 ‏@patscap Dec 11
Current 2016 franchise tag projections for a cornerback=13.838m. H/T @corryjoel Seems safe to project that 2018 CB tag will be around 14m

CapSpace=$1,825,615 ‏@patscap Dec 11
So if Malcolm Butler plays under the projected tender amounts he will make around $21m the next 3 yrs while taking the chance of injury.

So I would expect him to sign a 3 year extension this offseason for something less than $21M, the Patriots get a small discount, Butler gets guarantees. Something like 3/$18M or so with enough guaranteed to make it worth his while.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm not sure but I think the Pats only have him under contract for another season. IIRC, with first round picks you get 5 years. With other draft picks its 4 years. However I'm not sure how it works with UDFA signings. It could be that the Pats control their services only 3 years before they become FA's I'm not sure exactly.

At any rate, like a guy like DLewis, Butler is due for a huge raise in the very near future. He has not only proven to be a very good CB who is also a hard working, intelligent player in the true Patriot mold; he has shown his is also quite durable.....so far (cross fingers...and toes).

Just how much of a raise will be the big question. I'm not sure the Pats will be willing to go with the $8-12MM/yr contract that top CB's seem to be getting after just one year, but I wouldn't be surprise to see them be willing to sign him to the kind of extension that would pay him in the 5-7 range for 3 years which will make him a bargain in comparison, yet still get him back on the open market before he's 30.

That all makes sense...just trying to imagine this from his perspective...a year ago he's hoping to stay on the roster...now he's a household name across the NFL and looking at a 15--20 million+ deal.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I
I am slowly getting concerned about Chandler Jones. Somehow it seems to be his MO to fade away towards the end of the year but this time he doesn't have injuries as an excuse for it. The games against Denver and the Eagles were opportunities for him to come in big with plays to justify a big contract. IMO despite all his potential so far he has not really earned a big extension and there is no way I prioritize him over Hightower or Collins.

I share your concern. Got lambasted here when I put Jones at #3 behind High & Collins as priorities to re-up. Love to have the guy but DEs get crazy contracts so I would expect him to be priced way above his value GIVEN that the other 2 guys are really must signs. Should somehow one or both Collins or High go elsewhere I could see the Pats paying more but still not market premium for Jones. In his case we have some young guys under contract that look as if they could grow into the DE position so this fanboy is assuming potential youth developmental depth at that position. I wish I had access to film and the expertise to find out why it seems like Jones vanishes for games at a time. Nobody seems to be commenting on constant double teaming like Watt received last night. Were that the case it would be fine with me that he had no sacks or QB pressures.

 

[reflexblue]

I share your concern. Got lambasted here when I put Jones at #3 behind High & Collins as priorities to re-up. Love to have the guy but DEs get crazy contracts so I would expect him to be priced way above his value GIVEN that the other 2 guys are really must signs. Should somehow one or both Collins or High go elsewhere I could see the Pats paying more but still not market premium for Jones. In his case we have some young guys under contract that look as if they could grow into the DE position so this fanboy is assuming potential youth developmental depth at that position. I wish I had access to film and the expertise to find out why it seems like Jones vanishes for games at a time. Nobody seems to be commenting on constant double teaming like Watt received last night. Were that the case it would be fine with me that he had no sacks or QB pressures.

I think in the past Jones has just physically wore down. I don't know about this year (someone said he put on wgt) but hes never been stout, hes never had any extra weight to burn off or lose. I'm sure being double team wears him down even faster. Then theres the injuries, which have plagued him in the past. Maybe be hes nicked up a little?

 

[PatriotReign]

In regards to Chandler Jones he gets held a lot around the neck, which never seems to get called. Also the last two weeks he's gone up against two of the better LT's in the game in Jason Peters and Duane Brown.

 

[BobDigital]

A lot of things tonight caught my eye. The most interesting story of the night (besides a few small time injuries and Gronk coming back) was the OL.

At times it looked down right dominant vs a very good DL and at other times it got handled by a very good DL.

It is probablly too much to ask to expect wire to wire great OL play vs that unit but overall it took a good step forward tonight.

Keep in mind this is the OL we are rolling with. Maybe Flemming takes Cannon's spot but i doubt it. Vollmer/Jackson/Stork/Mason/Cannon is what we are rolling into the playoffs with if no injuries happen and now is the time to just let them gel. Honestly i think Stork and Cannon (never thought id say that) did the best tonight.

You just need to roll with the punches and give Jackson and Mason the snaps and keep them at the same spot. Also perhaps keep an TE or extra OL in to help block as needed but this unit is what you have.

I do think once Edelman is back the ball will be able to get out quicker and some of the inexperience here can be over come. For now you just hope they improve with playing time and i think they can.

 

[Sicilian]

In regards to Chandler Jones he gets held a lot around the neck, which never seems to get called. Also the last two weeks he's gone up against two of the better LT's in the game in Jason Peters and Duane Brown.

It's also hard to get to the QB first when Sheard, Ninkovich, Hicks, and Easley are getting there in 1.2 seconds.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

In regards to Chandler Jones he gets held a lot around the neck, which never seems to get called. Also the last two weeks he's gone up against two of the better LT's in the game in Jason Peters and Duane Brown.

I've seen that. Also seen Ninko held in the same manner time and again. Standard tactic by OTs.

 

[PScottman]

I'm sure being double team wears him down even faster.

I dont know this for sure as I haven't looked closely, but doesn't it stand to reason why the other guys (Brown, Easley, Hicks, Sheard) are getting in cleaner is because teams are paying way more attention to the top five sack guy (Jones)?

I agree that High and the Freak are the priorities, that doesn't mean however the Pats don't float a contract Jones' way just to see if they can get it done.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I dont know this for sure as I haven't looked closely, but doesn't it stand to reason why the other guys (Brown, Easley, Hicks, Sheard) are getting in cleaner is because teams are paying way more attention to the top five sack guy (Jones)?

I agree that High and the Freak are the priorities, that doesn't mean however the Pats don't float a contract Jones' way just to see if they can get it done.

That was my question. Does anyone have a body of personal observation evidence that has Jones drawing consistent double teams? That would lead the others to an easier path to the QB.
The only observational evidence I have is memory of both Jones and Ninko consistently held around the neck by OTs with no calls, primarily earlier this season.

 

[PatriotReign]

It's also hard to get to the QB first when Sheard, Ninkovich, Hicks, and Easley are getting there in 1.2 seconds.

They got plenty of help from RT Derek Newton who did his best to get Hoyer killed.

 

[supafly]

I share your concern. Got lambasted here when I put Jones at #3 behind High & Collins as priorities to re-up. Love to have the guy but DEs get crazy contracts so I would expect him to be priced way above his value GIVEN that the other 2 guys are really must signs. Should somehow one or both Collins or High go elsewhere I could see the Pats paying more but still not market premium for Jones. In his case we have some young guys under contract that look as if they could grow into the DE position so this fanboy is assuming potential youth developmental depth at that position. I wish I had access to film and the expertise to find out why it seems like Jones vanishes for games at a time. Nobody seems to be commenting on constant double teaming like Watt received last night. Were that the case it would be fine with me that he had no sacks or QB pressures.

I think your prioritization is spot on, to be perfectly honest. I tend to think that a player like Hightower comes first, with Collins second, and Jones third--for various reasons such as cost, need, etc.

It would seem oddly coincidental if Belichick didn't share this same line of thinking, seeing as how he went out and brought in our highest priced FA (Sheard), as well as addressed it with two top 100 DE draft picks. I know that fans think that we could somehow retain all 3, but that may be wishful thinking in many ways.

 

[supafly]

I agree that High and the Freak are the priorities, that doesn't mean however the Pats don't float a contract Jones' way just to see if they can get it done.

As well they should. If they're able to retain all 3, that's just a nice bonus. Either way, I think both parties are going to have to wait until another season plays out before they'll get too far in negotiations, but that's just my opinion.

I would feel comfortable enough offering him a second tier kind of pact right now, but if he's waiting for the top dollar contracts offered to the elite DEs of the league, he'll have to wait another season until he sees FA and field offers from there. I have a difficult time envisioning Belichick throwing around 12-14m dollar a year deals for him at the moment.

 

[Fencer]

As well they should. If they're able to retain all 3, that's just a nice bonus. Either way, I think both parties are going to have to wait until another season plays out before they'll get too far in negotiations, but that's just my opinion.

I would feel comfortable enough offering him a second tier kind of pact right now, but if he's waiting for the top dollar contracts offered to the elite DEs of the league, he'll have to wait another season until he sees FA and field offers from there. I have a difficult time envisioning Belichick throwing around 12-14m dollar a year deals for him at the moment.

BB rarely pays top dollar for positions other teams seem to overvalue, like WR, CB or pass rusher. And when he does (Moss, Revis, Law), he seems to do so on easily escapable deals.

Jones will rightly demand a ton of guaranteed money. If he can find a team to pay him elite-rusher dollars, he's gone.

That said, he's not actually an elite rusher -- reasonable people can of course disagree about how far he is from that status -- so there's a chance the market for him will be soft enough that he winds up staying.

 

[luuked]

I think in the past Jones has just physically wore down. I don't know about this year (someone said he put on wgt) but hes never been stout, hes never had any extra weight to burn off or lose. I'm sure being double team wears him down even faster. Then theres the injuries, which have plagued him in the past. Maybe be hes nicked up a little?

In regards to Chandler Jones he gets held a lot around the neck, which never seems to get called. Also the last two weeks he's gone up against two of the better LT's in the game in Jason Peters and Duane Brown.

It's also hard to get to the QB first when Sheard, Ninkovich, Hicks, and Easley are getting there in 1.2 seconds.

You are all correct in some of the things you write. What it boils down to for me with Jones is whether he is worth top pass rusher money for the bottomline production. Does he really add so much to the team that he is worth 10m+ or could we get 80% of his production with someone costing considerably less money (think Revis/Butler situation) ?

I am not firmly in either of the two camps so far but it is a question that floats around in my mind.

 

[PScottman]

Does he really add so much to the team that he is worth 10m+ or could we get 80% of his production with someone costing considerably less money (think Revis/Butler situation) ?

BB is the ultimate ROI (return on investment) guy. Every dollar counts so when he plugs in Jones to whatever Gonkulator (not to be confused with the Granulator which is an entirely different thing) they use by position for "best value by production category" given his past view on sacks, I don't see a number getting close to what other teams are gonna shell out (Oakland...just rocketed into my head).

 

[patfanken]

Cabdker Jone' value should NOT be underestimated. Regardless of the lack of the "wow" factor, Jones has has been a VERY good 4 down football player. He has played the run and pass well, and more importantly been a very dependable, versatile, and durable player for the last 4 years. A guy who has been as professional as you would hope.

Unfortunately he is going to have to face what a LOT of other very good football players have faced when their contracts came due. He is going to have to decide whether he is willing to stay with the Pats and all it implies, or whether he should go for the last buck.

Make no mistake about it. The Pats are NOT just going to let him walk., But they aren't going to pay him "top dollar" either. Jones will get a very respectable offer that will like be about $2MM/year less than what he can get on the "open market". Both contracts will make financially secure for life. He will just have to decide which will make him the happiest in the long run.