Idle Thoughts - The strategy edition

[patfanken]

I was think about doing a strategy threat, but the Matt Chatham article posted here galvanized me into action because he posed so many really good questions. This thread has 3 purposes. 1. pose the questions that the Pats face. 2. Give my opinion with what I'd do (with the limited knowledge I have), 3. open a discussion that, hopefully, will fill the 42 odd hours we have left before all the answers will be revealed.

A, Offense

1, The obvious question is how much pass vs run should be in the game plan, and from what formations should we attack the Colts from.

2. What I'd try to do is to duplicated what we did last time, without dictating my intentions directly from the formation we use.

3. So the heavy 6 OLmen formations we saw in November will NOT be part of my plan. But I do want to run. So how do I accomplish this. My goal is to create a formation or group of formations that will allow the Colt D to dictate whether I pass or run. In other word, run against a 7 man front, and pass when they drop down the 8th man

So here's the goal (and its not easy). Create a formation that gives me an advantage in the run game by formation, BUT still gives me enough flexibility in the passing game to exploit the Colts if they drop their SS into the box. Now when I give Brady a play (pass or run) he has the option to go to the complimentary play depending on what he sees the Defense do.

Sounds great but what does that formation look like. Here's a thought 2 TEs with Lafell (an excellent blocker) lined up on a tight wing to the Hooman/Flemming side (strong side). The RB lined up behind the QB or next to the QB if shotgun) with Edelman (WR) lined up wide to the other side

With the best blocking TE lining up to the weak side, we get a chance to create the individual match ups we want against the smallish front 7 of the Colts and match them with 7 strong blockers, but also 4 fast release receiving threats. In the run game you get a hat on a hat across the LOS creating a lot of soft spots for a one step and go power RB to get 4-6 yds CONSISTENTLY even if the Colts are expecting the run.

The play action pass (PAP) options off this formation are legion. Not to mention the motion and shift possibilities. In a split second you can spread LaFell wide or motion him into a twins formation to the week side and have Gronk Edelmand and Lafell all on one side. If you really want to spread the Colts you could shift Gronk into the weak side slot and split Lafell wide to the strong side. All this from the same basic personnel grouping. A great advantage when you are going high tempo

4. Question - if we can assume the Colts are going to be preparing to defend the run game, and we understand that ALL run games can be shut down with proper preparations. why would we want to run what they expect? So wouldn't the best strategy be to look to pass from formations that look like we are running. And the corresponding strategy would be to run from formations that look like we are passing.

5. I think the Colts will be prepared for our heavy formations, so I wouldn't use them or be prepared no5 to use them often.

6. Lots of PAP from BOTH the shot gun and under C. I also want to run more from the shot gun.

7. I think the Colts will be preparing heavily for the dink and dunk, and thus will give our spread formations a lot of tight man or 4/5 under tight zone or combo coverages. They will try and squeeze Brady, just like they tried to squeeze Manning. Its much like the Jets often try to do.

8. The solution is to try and take them deeper and out of their comfort zones. Crossers and in cuts will generally do the trick. Also RB's as receivers pose a problem to that coverage. Brady will have to take his shots and hit about a third of them if he is going to get them to create some room underneath.

9. I'll be interested to see how the Colts choose to rush Brady. I admit I really don't know much about the Colts DL and how they play. Certainly much more man coverage than the Ravens used.

10l This team has no answer for the Gronk. Their only hope is to bang him hard on the LOS with a LB and double him with a S and hope to disrupt the timing and force Brady to look elsewhere. The Pats solution is to line Gronk up in "bunch formations", or motion him. Put him all over the field and make them find him and when they do, it will tell Brady exactly what the coverage will be, most likely opening up others.

11. Up Tempo, but not all the time. Keep them on edge never knowing when the up tempo is coming, and turning it off just as quickly as it came. Dictate the rhythm of the game.

 

[patfanken]

DEFENSE -

This is much harder.

1. Prove early that they won't have the same success that the Ravens had, and you will end the run game as a serious threat before the end of the first quarter. Its not like they have to do anything by formation. Just play sounder football, especially improved play by the DT's.

2. The base will be 4-2 with 5 DB's Probably 3CB's

3. The question we are all asking is what are the Matchups going to be. Here are my choices when we are in a press man. Revis on Moncrief - Browner on Fleener (or Allen, whomever BB deems more dangerous) Arrington on Hilton with S help over the top. Collins on the other TE and Chung on Boom, and Hightower to delay blitz on spy on Luck.

4, In my mind the biggest threat to the D is when Luck breaks the pocket and extends the play. This is when Hilton becomes most dangerous. The most obvious solution is the one we hate the most, but is the most effective, the dreaded "controlled rush" One designed to keep Luck in the pocket, but still give him a huge amount of time to throw. Very frustrating for the fans, as well as the secondary.

5. While I think there is a place for the "dreaded controlled rush", the Pats need to use some creative alternatives from time to time. Here is one thought. Every now and then give the 4 DL rushers freedom to come hard and without control. If the get to him great, if not, we have Jamie Collins acting as a spy. He mirrors Luck and as soon as he sees Luck pick a lane, he fills it. Luck is very athletic,and fast, but he doesn't have Collins' athleticism or speed. This almost acts as a delayed blitz, but in actuality is merely a one one one game between Collins and Luck.

Collins stays about 3-5 yds off the LOS where he can help with inside crossers, but has no specific coverage. His job is to keep leverage on Luck and attack him when Luck escapes the protection of his own blockers when he is flushed from the pocket in the initial rush, at worst it will force Luck to quickly release the ball or get rid of it. At best we have Collins in his face delivering a blow. This should NOT be a passive kind of spying. The key is having Collins attack luck once he's left the pocket, like a LB filling an isolation hole.

With this concept we can free up our DL to put immediate pressure on Luck, while having a good match up vs Luck if he tries to run it.

6. Occasionally the Colts run a little read option, especially when their running attack is failing. Luck is by far their most dangerous ball carrier. I'm sure we've been coached on read option responsibilities and it will be great practice for Seattle who uses it a lot more.

Back in the 70's and 80's when I was coaching was the hey day of option football. Almost every HS in MA ran some kind of option. I had to defend the triple option (wishbone) Houston Veer, Delaware wing T option.and all their variations. We even had a team on our schedule who ran a single wing option. So while I don't know much, and a lot less than I used to know, I DO know something about options.

The principals of defending the option are actually fairly simple, and I'll get more into it, if and when we play Seattle in the finals. But there is one over riding factor that is essential to any successful defense of an option attack, and that is on every play the option is run, the QB must hit the ground. Because once the QB creates a mesh with a RB, for the first time in about 2 decades, he loses his "cloak of invulnerability" and can be hit....and hit hard. It doesn't matter if he hands the ball to the RB, it is legal to hit him and it must be done. It drives me nuts to see this play run and watch QB waltz free if their read is to hand off. Jim Harbaugh might call this a sneaky and deceptive play, ( ) and their should be a price to be paid for the offense running it.

So as a DC you determine where and who the offense wants to option and stop the run first, assign at least one man to the QB and one to the pitchman, and then consistently change those assignments and make the QB question their reads . BTW - its even easier on the NFL level because at this time there is very rarely a pitch man. But like I said more on that come next week.

8. Luck's rushing threat will mean that the Pats will likely play a little more zone concepts this week. I know the mediots are constantly saying not to over think it and just play man, but unfortunately is more complex than that.

9. I'm also sure the Colts are working overtime on defending the A gap blitzes we've had so much success with. Now is the time to use that to use zone blitz concepts to create overload coverage which waste blockers on one side, and outnumber them on the other.

For example: Fake the A gape blitz by Collins and Hightower to draw the coverage inside than drop back after making a quick initial contact and draws a commitment form the C and 2 G's.and RB That will isolate the 2 T's on the DE's. Now overload one side and rush a DB in a 2 on 1 situation with the other DE. The concept here is that one one side you have more rushers than blockers while in the middle and other side, you 3 or 4 blockers waiting for someone to block.

10. The complimentary play, especially if the blitz in coming off the front side, is knowing that a good QB will recognize the blitz and dump the ball to the "hot read". The defense SHOULD know who that hot read is, and what route he's running and JUMP it. Some times you use a blitz not so much to get the QB, but to get the QB to make a hot read and throw the ball exactly where you expect it.

11. And as I have mentioned on several occasions the most important strategy is not to employ and SINGLE strategy. Changing coverages and disguising what you are doing are the key to defeating a talented QB like Luck,. If you can get him to the point where he is questioning his reads, then the game has been won on the defensive side.

OK this should be a start of the conversation. I look forward to your thoughts and contributions.

 

[Gwedd]

One thing the Patriots used to do on defense, and that drove opposing QB's nuts, was to have only one, or even NO down lineman. Everyone standing up and sort of milling about.

The QB never knew what type of defense he was going to face, where, if any, the blitz was coming from, whether it was man or zone, etc.

I'd REALLY like to see some more of that, or something like that, being done. New England really does have the speed rushers as well as the safeties and DB's to come from anywhere, at anytime, and it just seems to me that it's time to unleash the dogs and go after Luck.

Like you say, make sure he gets hit and hit often on every running play. Even if they make a few 1st downs, getting Luck to develop a case of "Happy Feet" would do wonders for our defense, and likely the outcome of the game. Make him throw a few hurried passes, some plain old throw aways, and it starts to effect the Colts' offenses morale. make them frustrated, nervous, even angry because if you can make their linemen angry, they will start making mistakes, especially false starts, etc, and that's always a good thing.

I am actually looking forward to this game. Thanks for another great write up, Ken. I appreciate you taking the time to post these threads. I always learn something, and always have something to think about after reading them.

 

[Fencer]

Why did Fleener go off last time the teams played, and should a dinged-up Browner try to cover him again?

This might be a game in which to exploit Collins' versatility and have him line up all over the field -- sometimes playing a conventional LB role, sometimes jamming a TE at the line, occasionally perhaps even jamming a WR, sometimes spying as you said, sometimes blitzing/blitz-faking.

I also like Gwedd's idea of going full amoeba.

 

[Fencer]

Offensively I'm scared that on the first series the Pats will try to go deep on play-action -- in the hope that the Colts are too amped up and bite hard -- and wind up missing it and starting with a three-and-out.

 

[VrabelJr]

I've been thinking 2 TE sets are the perfect way to attack the Colts defense.

 

[manxman2601]

I think there's two ways of winning on offence:

1. Show them the 6 OL look but use more Gronk and play-action to keep them off guard

2. Go full spread on them and limit the abilities of Vontae Davis and Greg Toler to impact the game. Those two might be able to impact our passing game but can their nos 3,4 and 5 DBs? Ground, Edelman, Amendola, Lafell, Vereen. They can't shut them all down. It also works because their pass rush isn't the best so our OL aren't as trouble potentially.


As for defence, I think it's a case of winning matchups. In the secondary for sure but i think this is a game where BB should just say to Chandler Jones; "this is what we drafted you for. Go out there and beat Costanzo today."

 

[DarrylS]

What I liked about last game was how we used more weapons than we normally do.. Amendola, Edelman pass and Hooman.. this team can build off of this and the more they have to think about the more we will excel..

Still waiting for a screen to Develin or a couple of passes to Wright..

Interesting heard one of the mediots somewhere saying something to the effect that Gray was being held back for a series of incidents, not one, but they were not specific.. so that could all be conjecture.

 

[1960Pats]

What I liked about last game was how we used more weapons than we normally do.. Amendola, Edelman pass and Hooman.. this team can build off of this and the more they have to think about the more we will excel..

Still waiting for a screen to Develin or a couple of passes to Wright..

Interesting heard one of the mediots somewhere saying something to the effect that Gray was being held back for a series of incidents, not one, but they were not specific.. so that could all be conjecture.

Conjecture is a middle name for some of us.
Maybe the sudden fame got to him.
If he isn't injured then there has to be a reason he's not playing.
I hope he learns his lesson, if that really is the problem.

 

[PlainOldEd]

One thing the Patriots used to do on defense, and that drove opposing QB's nuts, was to have only one, or even NO down lineman. Everyone standing up and sort of milling about.

The QB never knew what type of defense he was going to face, where, if any, the blitz was coming from, whether it was man or zone, etc.

That's mean and unsportsmanlike, deception isn't honorable.

~John

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I've been thinking 2 TE sets are the perfect way to attack the Colts defense.

Is there a reason why tim wright isn't getting snaps on offense?

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Good stuff, Ken. I agree that the approach will differ on offense, but that the Pats will likely find success there. The challenge, like you said, will be on defense and making it so the contest isn't a shootout, because unless the running game returns to the days of 4+yards every first down, I expect there to be a couple of quick series for the offense.

On D, I particularly like the notion of letting the DL loose occasionally with Collins as spy. This is a matchup that I'd like to see and one that is easier to get if the Pats can get a lead and have their dime defense on the field, so Hightower doesn't have to be in Collins cover role. I'm thinking a dime line with HT/Ayers, Wilfork/Siliga, Jones, and Nink could see more time in this game than usual.

I'm not sold on the shotgun runs. It's something the Pats have done well in years past, but it hasn't yielded much of anything this year. If they can get it right, it would definitely have the advantage of being unexpected. Perhaps they could introduce a pistol formation where the runs don't all look like draw plays. That would be unexpected. (I.e., I don't expect it, but I do wonder what surprises JMcD and BB have in store this week.)

And just a thought on your approach to option defense: I'd think that any team that follows that dictum is likely to give-up 15 yards once or thrice finding-out the Rogie don't play that way. In the read option, the QB is not running to the line, and thus when he hands-off, he's more than a step away from the defender. If an end or OLB attacks the QB after the hand-off, the yellow laundry will save the poor, helpless, 245-pound future of the NFL.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I was think about doing a strategy threat, but the Matt Chatham article posted here galvanized me into action because he posed so many really good questions. This thread has 3 purposes. 1. pose the questions that the Pats face. 2. Give my opinion with what I'd do (with the limited knowledge I have), 3. open a discussion that, hopefully, will fill the 42 odd hours we have left before all the answers will be revealed.

A, Offense

1, The obvious question is how much pass vs run should be in the game plan, and from what formations should we attack the Colts from.

2. What I'd try to do is to duplicated what we did last time, without dictating my intentions directly from the formation we use.

3. So the heavy 6 OLmen formations we saw in November will NOT be part of my plan. But I do want to run. So how do I accomplish this. My goal is to create a formation or group of formations that will allow the Colt D to dictate whether I pass or run. In other word, run against a 7 man front, and pass when they drop down the 8th man

So here's the goal (and its not easy). Create a formation that gives me an advantage in the run game by formation, BUT still gives me enough flexibility in the passing game to exploit the Colts if they drop their SS into the box. Now when I give Brady a play (pass or run) he has the option to go to the complimentary play depending on what he sees the Defense do.

Sounds great but what does that formation look like. Here's a thought 2 TEs with Lafell (an excellent blocker) lined up on a tight wing to the Hooman/Flemming side (strong side). The RB lined up behind the QB or next to the QB if shotgun) with Edelman (WR) lined up wide to the other side

With the best blocking TE lining up to the weak side, we get a chance to create the individual match ups we want against the smallish front 7 of the Colts and match them with 7 strong blockers, but also 4 fast release receiving threats. In the run game you get a hat on a hat across the LOS creating a lot of soft spots for a one step and go power RB to get 4-6 yds CONSISTENTLY even if the Colts are expecting the run.

The play action pass (PAP) options off this formation are legion. Not to mention the motion and shift possibilities. In a split second you can spread LaFell wide or motion him into a twins formation to the week side and have Gronk Edelmand and Lafell all on one side. If you really want to spread the Colts you could shift Gronk into the weak side slot and split Lafell wide to the strong side. All this from the same basic personnel grouping. A great advantage when you are going high tempo

4. Question - if we can assume the Colts are going to be preparing to defend the run game, and we understand that ALL run games can be shut down with proper preparations. why would we want to run what they expect? So wouldn't the best strategy be to look to pass from formations that look like we are running. And the corresponding strategy would be to run from formations that look like we are passing.

5. I think the Colts will be prepared for our heavy formations, so I wouldn't use them or be prepared no5 to use them often.

7. I think the Colts will be preparing heavily for the dink and dunk, and thus will give our spread formations a lot of tight man or 4/5 under tight zone or combo coverages. They will try and squeeze Brady, just like they tried to squeeze Manning. Its much like the Jets often try to do.

8. The solution is to try and take them deeper and out of their comfort zones. Crossers and in cuts will generally do the trick. Also RB's as receivers pose a problem to that coverage. Brady will have to take his shots and hit about a third of them if he is going to get them to create some room underneath.

.

Great post. With the forecast being low 40s and a cold,steady rain after 7pm it'll be interesting how much running they do on a dome team that is not built for inclement weather.

I still expect the Pats to run the ball, short passes/play action proving that Indy can tackle wet uniforms. Football 101 stuff.

 

[buile]

Seems Indy fans are not happy with their safety Landry (more of a run-stopper?) in coverage. If he really is a weak link, then would a 6 OL set ensure he's in? Regardless, perhaps the hoped-for match-up is either Vereen or Gronk against Landry.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Screw Tim Wright, how did Jonas Gray get stuck on the milk carton? There's got to be more going on than the oversleeping incident... The optimist in me wants to think this is like an "in case of emergency break glass" secret weapon, but I'm thinking Gray got crazy when slapped down the first time, mouthed off, and all that's left is for the full story to be told in the off-season. Anyway here are my amateurish and fairly vanilla thoughts which will turn out to be completely off target:

On offense, show the 6 OL formation early a time or two, run out of it, throw passes out of it. Don't use it exclusively. Yes please on a good dose of run plays and play action passes; These may be a different Colts team, but they have to show that they can stop the run. Otherwise, don't over-adjust from the start and assume an aerial dogfight. I don't see them improving sufficiently that the run threat is not a threat, and if we get our yards on the ground, the PA passes will be devastating.

Brady's veteran eye/situational awareness will be the most potent weapon. Opportunistically pivot from planned dink/dunk/run attack exploiting Colts' adjustments. If the Colts find themselves committing the 'backers and strong safety to run contain, yes, it's a Gronk game - and if there's time, there will be opportunities for shots downfield. And you know on one of those short-to-intermediate routes Gronk will eventually break off some big gainers through sheer Gronkage. But also exploit whatever single coverage develops on the wideouts. Weaknesses? O-Line playing like it played in earlier Kline games. Be prepared to dink and dunk behind a weakened line while picking the shots downfield. Brady seems to have adjusted to this evolving possibility, getting the ball out faster. Pray that we can go 120 minutes w/o another injury on the O-line (yes, getting ahead of myself... but we really need this.)

On defense the "let's amoeba" thing scares me. It feels like coming out in desperation mode; hold it in reserve. We've done 2 down linemen against the Manning Colts before... don't know if I want to drop down to 0...

Herron is not exactly a world-beating RB, the Colts' O-line isn't exactly forged in the fire of battle over a full season, and I could see run stuffage early leading to an air-only attack. That would be a good scenario. If, uncharacteristically, the Pats actually jump out in front by a score or two, air-only quickly becomes close to a given for the Colts.

Reducing the Colts to 1 dimension looks doable; if so, suddenly we're seeing the chess match come down to who makes the better, faster decisions, the 15-year vet or the young phenom - with (I would hope) more of a run game supporting the savvy vet.

But that 1 dimension might be plenty for Luck, so we will need pressure, and I'm thinking that will involve a fair sprinkling of blitzes (bringing 5 or more). It's a tradeoff; Revis will keep TY Hilton's production to a low roar - if we in fact just assign Revis on Hilton - but it might be a big Montcrief day, based on how much the knee affects Browner. This Colts line has gelled, from all appearances... I would not assume we can disrupt Luck w/3 or 4 all game.

No early amoeba, please. Show sufficient respect for the possibility of the run and establish that it ain't happening. Take it away (again) - don't assume that you've taken it away going in.

At halftime fix stuff that didn't work and never quit and win and stuff

 

[Jackson 2]

Seems Indy fans are not happy with their safety Landry (more of a run-stopper?) in coverage. If he really is a weak link, then would a 6 OL set ensure he's in? Regardless, perhaps the hoped-for match-up is either Vereen or Gronk against Landry.

I view Landry as a thickly-built guy whom Gronk can out-maneuver and outrun.

 

[Big-T]

There's a part of me that wants to come out with a flea flicker on the first play.

The Colts will 100% bite on it, especially with 6 OL...it just depends if Brady can hit the guy open deep then.

 

[Rob0729]

Here are some of my thoughts:

• I know the Pats usually use a contain rush with mobile QBs, but they don't do that with Luck as much. The Pats have found that Luck is susceptible to the A gap blitz and have given him fits with that the last two times he faced the Pats defense. I expect the Pats to use it this tomorrow although you gotta pick your battles with it. They can work overtime to defend it, but I have a feeling it may be the weakness of Luck and their offense. Every QB has a weakness and that looks to be Luck's.

• Personally, I think the biggest thing the Pats needs to focus on is physicalness. Whether it is a Luck led Colts or a Manning led Colts, they are still a finesse team. You punch them in the mouth and they fold. I know this is a simplistic strategy, but that is why the Pats won the last two games. They just lined up and ran the ball down their throats and they manhandled the Colts receivers on defense.

• I know it may drive people crazy, but I would adopt a more of a bend don't break style of defense of the past. Go with the two high safeties and force Luck to get yards at 5-10 yards a chunk. Luck is a gun slinger. He needs to pick up yards at 15-30 a pop. You make him do the Brady thing and do a slow methodical drive of 10-12 plays at 6-8 yards a play and he gets restless and makes mistakes by trying to force passes deep. This why I always laugh when people compare Luck to Manning, but he is a Farve clone in this respect. He doesn't have the patience to do long controlled drives.

• Going back to the pass rush, this is why I think the Pats do far less contain rush for Luck. They do blitz more against him to force him to pass quickly and not wait for his receivers to get open. The fact he doesn't have a lot of weapons plays into this strategy that they can afford to not drop the extra man into coverage.

• The Pats have to be concern about Daniel Herron if they follow this strategy. Luck has been throwing to him a lot in the playoffs (18 catches for 117 yards). I didn't watch the Bengals game, but watching the Broncos game he was more a last resort dump off when nothing else is open. So I am not sure they will design passes to him.

• I still think the Colts' defense is overrated. They played the Bengals without AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham. The Bengals' offense struggled a lot during the regular season when Green was out. Against Denver, they had it easy. Force Manning to throw more than 5 yards outside the numbers and Manning couldn't hit the side of the barn. Their defense has improved, but they faced two offenses fighting with the proverbial one hand behind their backs.

• One thing people are missing when they have gushed over Luck this post season, they scored 26 and 24 points. Against the Bengals, they had favorable field position for most of the game. They had drives that started on their own 36, 39, 43, and the Bengals 47 and came away with three FGs and a TD. They scored three times on 11 drives against the Broncos and one of their TD was on a drive starting on the Broncos' 41 yard line. Their offensive struggles that they had at the end of the season have improved, but they are still not a great offense.

• On offense, I think the Pats will be in the heavy set for a lot of the game (sorry Ken, I disagree with you although I think we will see it less). I think the Pats will pass a lot more than the previous two games, but I think the Pats are going to out muscle the Colts at the line of scrimmage. Their defensive line isn't big and more of a speed rushing line. I think the Pats will do a lot more play action passes.

• I think it will be a big game for Lafell and Gronk. I think the Pats are going to pass to receivers who can run through this smallish defensive backfield. Gronk will be throwing people out of the club left and right. I think the reason why their secondary did so good with the Broncos receivers was because they didn't have anyone who could out muscle their DBs and LBs. This is not an Edelman and Amendola type of game (although they may get their share).

 

[mayoclinic]

DEFENSE -

This is much harder.

2. The base will be 4-2 with 5 DB's Probably 3CB's

4, In my mind the biggest threat to the D is when Luck breaks the pocket and extends the play. This is when Hilton becomes most dangerous. The most obvious solution is the one we hate the most, but is the most effective, the dreaded "controlled rush" One designed to keep Luck in the pocket, but still give him a huge amount of time to throw. Very frustrating for the fans, as well as the secondary.

5. While I think there is a place for the "dreaded controlled rush", the Pats need to use some creative alternatives from time to time. Here is one thought. Every now and then give the 4 DL rushers freedom to come hard and without control. If the get to him great, if not, we have Jamie Collins acting as a spy. He mirrors Luck and as soon as he sees Luck pick a lane, he fills it. Luck is very athletic,and fast, but he doesn't have Collins' athleticism or speed. This almost acts as a delayed blitz, but in actuality is merely a one one one game between Collins and Luck.

Collins stays about 3-5 yds off the LOS where he can help with inside crossers, but has no specific coverage. His job is to keep leverage on Luck and attack him when Luck escapes the protection of his own blockers when he is flushed from the pocket in the initial rush, at worst it will force Luck to quickly release the ball or get rid of it. At best we have Collins in his face delivering a blow. This should NOT be a passive kind of spying. The key is having Collins attack luck once he's left the pocket, like a LB filling an isolation hole.

With this concept we can free up our DL to put immediate pressure on Luck, while having a good match up vs Luck if he tries to run it.

10. The complimentary play, especially if the blitz in coming off the front side, is knowing that a good QB will recognize the blitz and dump the ball to the "hot read". The defense SHOULD know who that hot read is, and what route he's running and JUMP it. Some times you use a blitz not so much to get the QB, but to get the QB to make a hot read and throw the ball exactly where you expect it.

11. And as I have mentioned on several occasions the most important strategy is not to employ and SINGLE strategy. Changing coverages and disguising what you are doing are the key to defeating a talented QB like Luck,. If you can get him to the point where he is questioning his reads, then the game has been won on the defensive side.

OK this should be a start of the conversation. I look forward to your thoughts and contributions.

Here's a possibly crazy thought I had.

Play a significant portion of the game in a 1-5-1-4 semi-amoeboid defense, with Wilfork/Branch/Siliga rotating at the DT to stay fresh, and Jones/Ninkovich/Hightower/Collins/Ayers standing up. 2 players would have responsibilities on any given play to "contain", but it would vary from play to play, and it would be unpredictable which ones would rush. In some cases you would rush 2 of the remaining 3 and have one drop into zone coverage and/or act as a "spy", at other times you would rush all 3. Chung/Wilson would be the "star" safety and would help in run support and taking responsibility for the "hot read". That would leave Revis, Browner, Arrington/Ryan and McCourty to handle the matchups, with a healthy mixups of zone and man coverage schemes.

 

[PP2]

Best write up from you yet, Ken.

Also good piece from Rob. I agree with punching the Colts in the mouth because they are a finesse team, they picked speed over size so that is their poison.

I also predicted that we would see a major defensive wrinkle along the lines of the well-known S/CB swap we saw in '03. Once Luck is thrown off his game, he doesn't really do a good job of recovering. When he is off, he is off, period.

This is the sort of thing BB lives for. He marinates in it and has probably been thinking 24/7, taking notes on everything, writing on everything, including (wait for it) a napkin.

EDIT: Speak of the devil, this was just posted-

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...01/patriots_salute_bill_belichicks_long_hours