Idle thoughts - the start of the second half edition.

[archstanton543]

Really? Are we really digging this up again? You're delusional if you believe a healthy Ben Roethlisberger instead of Landry Jones doesn't shred this defense. Do you even watch the games?

Digging what up again? They played Pittsburgh this year, did they not?

No, I don't watch the games out of protest of Defamegate. I just watch Pats games.

 

[SVN]

Trying to bleed the clock probably took the offense out of rhythm. When behind , objective should be to score first. they messed themselves up.

 

[libra957]

Hopefully we see them again in 4 years in Seattle, I don't to give them the opportunity opportunity to redeem that superbowl lost.

 

[denverpatsfan]

As bad as they played they were a terrible offensive goal line series of play calls away from a tie game. That end of the half TD was the worst performance since the SB end of half TD they gave up to the same team! This defense can't close out games. The Donks and Seahawks can do just that.

 

[Kontradiction]

Trying to bleed the clock probably took the offense out of rhythm. When behind , objective should be to score first. they messed themselves up.

Belichick clearly had zero confidence in the defense.

 

[ivanvamp]

You are confusing something. They sneaked Brady on 1st and 2nd down. The 3rd down play with 19 seconds to go was the hand-off to Blount.

Wrong.

First down, sneak.
Second down, Blount tries to leap the pile.
Third down, Brady tries to sneak and fumbles.
Fourth down, incomplete pass.

 

[IllegalContact]

if there is one, it was a good game to lose.......

let me know the last time a team that peaks in early november goes on to win it all

all this reverse engineered talk of demise is silly

 

[everlong]

1. The no call on Chancellor you have to give him a lot of credit for doing just enough to impede Gronk but not get called. What pissed me off more was you call Coleman but not the defender who interfered with Edelman deep and even more so Hightower gets tackled and there's no call but Thuney gets called on a questionable hook.

2. This is not an overreaction to this week. This defense isn't championship caliber as currently aligned. Maybe somebody like Mingo or Van Noy comes in and adds and element but as of now they are fatally flawed. If you compare this defense to the 2014 version they are weaker across the board at every position other than safety. Nink is in decline. Shread hasn't made an impact play where he won a battle at a critical time. Jones and Collins had flaws but they could flash their athletic ability and make a play. Other than Hightower they don't have that player right now.

To put it another way Sheard < Jones, Brown < VW, Nink now < Nink then, Ayers, Casillas and Collins > this lot, Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan and Butler collectively better than this lot.

3. Collins and Michaels totally missed the boat on Pete going for 2 up by 7 in that spot. Somebody like Ernie Adams has done the math and the probability of winning must be higher going for 2 there.

So as an example:

50% of the time you score on the and lead by 9. With that time left the odds of winning are 90%.
50% you miss. Lets say for simple math the other team ties the game 50% of the time and then you lose in OT 50% 0f the time. This isn't exact probability math by the different outcomes probably put you at winning 85% of the time doing it this way.

Going for 1 you make it 95% of the time. The other team scores 50% and then makes the 2 point conversion 50% of the time. Putting it at roughly 75% chance of winning.

I haven't worked out probability numbers in 25 years and it wasn't my major so I'm sure somebody else can work this out much better than I have but I bet moving the extra point back directly factored in the expected value of the move to go for 2 here. I'm using really basic numbers and not actual statistical data but I'm betting Pete's move wasn't arbitrary and Bill would do the same more often than not. The not being when other factors such as wind, snow or rain are introduced.

 

[Keep Up With The Joneses]

He doesn't catch that most of the time. It was a wobbling ball that went behind him. He had to readjust on the fly on a short-intermediate throw, that's extremely tough. I bet if Collinsworth hadn't planted that thought you wouldn't be assuming that Gronk was hearing footsteps.

No one hates CC more than me. I put no stock in anything that ballwasher has to say. I used my eyes, and I believe Gronk was a bit hesitant to catch that ball, and I'm saying I don't blame him.

Digging what up again? They played Pittsburgh this year, did they not?

No, I don't watch the games out of protest of Defamegate. I just watch Pats games.

Yes, they did play the Steelers. But if you really need me to tell you that offense is the same with Landry Jones under center as it is with Ben Roesthlisberger than I'm wasting my time with you.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Belichick clearly had zero confidence in the defense.

It's a defense he put together, though.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Bottom Line we lack talent and playmakers on defense. It's a very boring defense to watch

 

[ashley]

Bottom Line we lack talent and playmakers on defense. It's a very boring defense to watch

Last night it was also a very painful defense to watch.

 

[borg]

The defensive scheme tells me the coaching staff is well aware of the lack of talent on that side of the ball... minimizing instead of stopping, zone instead of man.....the personnel is simply inadequate. It was amateur hour out there. Jaggy CBs that don't have pro speed. Safeties that provide zero impact.
Jettisoning premium disruptors like Jones? Forget about his sacks, the man stripped balls from QBs and created turnovers....but I don't even know what a turnover looks like this year. Jones, Collins...legit NFL athletes........Easley ...a wasted #1. Factor in the lack of a #1 last year to rebuild what BB is deconstructing. The defensive talent is subpar and the signs have been glaring all season.

I just don't understand BB's mindset.....he deployed premium assets to get a quality DE (Jones), Hybrid LB, stud DBs...Revis/ Talib because difference makers win SuperBowls on defense ....and now the cupboard is bare. Beyond puzzling....but we are saving money

It was encouraging that Cyrus Jones' fumble wasn't a giveaway this time.....baby steps.

PS....watching Seattle's impact safeties operate last night, and knowing how much non-impact McCourty will be making going forward....I just don't expect BB to be too thrilled with the value/dollar that McCourty brings. I know others love his game...but .... I rarely see his impact

 

[FourierSeries]

2. This is not an overreaction to this week. This defense isn't championship caliber as currently aligned. Maybe somebody like Mingo or Van Noy comes in and adds and element but as of now they are fatally flawed. If you compare this defense to the 2014 version they are weaker across the board at every position other than safety. Nink is in decline. Shread hasn't made an impact play where he won a battle at a critical time. Jones and Collins had flaws but they could flash their athletic ability and make a play. Other than Hightower they don't have that player right now.

Terrific point. The defense is fatally flawed and we have absolutely no shot at winning a playoff game, let alone the SB. I can't imagine any scenario in which our defense gets torched for 400+ yards and 31 points in the postseason and we still win the game.

 

[Kdo5]

"They hate their coach."

Is that a dismissal of Belichick being stupid by injecting himself into a majorly divisive and vicious election? For a person in his position he should know to avoid being a distraction.

 

[PatsFan92]

Hey all, I was pretty disgusted last night going to bed but after some shut -eye I feel better prepared to reflect on last night-

In a way I think this will serve as the KC game for 2014. Did we get our doors blown off like in KC? No, but a lot of those same desperate "man, this defense couldn't stop Everett high school" feelings were present in a lot of people. Here are my takeaways. Let me know how you feel.

• I think this defense is not as good as a lot of us wanted to believe all year, but last night was also an extreme inaccurate example of our worst football
  
  
• Seattle played great and deserved that victory, but like any teams losses, last night we uncharactersitaly had too many mistakes on both sides that I wouldn't expect to continue
  
  
• the offense seeming un-new England like was more of a product of playing the best overall defense in football, and less a product of bad mistakes, though we did has a few
  
  
• to go along with that, I think last nights defense was more about how many terrible mistakes we made on defense and less about our inability to stop them. I can't rememeber a game where so many of our starters looked completely lost. So many. Blown assignments, DBs looking around in confusion at each other after Big wide open games. Seattle didn't do anything special or that we haven't seen before, I think we just had a terrible night and those things happen sometimes. We seem to always have an uncharacteristic complete breakdown on defense once a year. This was that game.
  
  
• I think it's safer to say we are closer to a 14-18th ranked defense instead of the the fringes of the top 10 or a bottom 5 defense like we played last night. The good thing is that tom Brady and BB have made some noise with much worse defenses. 2011 we brought our bottom 2 defense to the super bowl and held the giants to a low scoring and that our offense ended up blowing.
  
  
• BB is a master at tightening up or defense in the playoffs. This was also our first game back with Jamie and I that it was a large factor in our performance. Jamie being traded took a large emotional toll on our defense and I think people like Hightower would admit that behind closed doors. The further removed we get from the trade and the more game time we have without him the better we will play without him. Even if he was "freelancing" or having a "down" year, he still was a constant rock and force in our defense and playing without him will take time to get used to.
  
  
• the positives to me are that- despite our defense playing the worst game I've seen out of them all year, (and probably worst game since 2012-2013) and our offense making some mistakes we usually don't make, we still moved the ball at will in the second half and left a bunch of points on the board. If driving down the field at will in the second half on ten best defense in football and losing on the goal line is as bad as it's going to get for our offense, then I feel fantastic about them going forward
  
  
• the Jules fumble was just a great play by Seattle, but Brady's int, our failure to go for 2 on a couple of scores, and our failure to convert a couple red zone trips into TDs are not really "typical" problems that plague us. Like I said, Seattle played great and held us to 24. But if 24 against the best defense in the league, when it easily should have been in the 30s because of our own uncharacteristic mistakes, is a "bad" night for us then I feel okay. We saw what Brady did with a worse offense in xlix.
  
  
• overall this game sucked and will largely be a throwaway game when we look back on it. Sometimes you just don't have "it." Seattle is a top 3 team and we didn't play patriots football tonight. Sometimes this happens. We have 7 games left and 5 of them are very favorable situations. Hopefully we can have a couple confidence building games defensively over the next few games and get to form for the playoffs.
  
  
• the last thing that goes in our favor is that the raiders, chiefs, and broncos all have to play each other 3ish times down the stretch and will definitely beat up and trade losses with each other.
  
  
• at the end of the day we had an unpatriot loss , but that happens. I fully expect this team to rip off at least 5-6 out of our final 7 and be right back where we always are----> playing for a super bowl berth in NE. Every season we have awful losses that make us think "wow, I can't see us being competitive in the playoffs this year", but we also usually have 12+ victories that show other wise and usually can look back and laugh at our bad losses when it's all over.

Lets go blow the doors off of SF, NY, and Baltimore and then solidify the 1 seed in Denver. Unless we meet them again in the super bowl, we won't play another team as complete as Seattle. I'll put my money on BB in a rematch

 

[Kdo5]

Hey all, I was pretty disgusted last night going to bed but after some shut -eye I feel better prepared to reflect on last night-

In a way I think this will serve as the KC game for 2014. Did we get our doors blown off like in KC? No, but a lot of those same desperate "man, this defense couldn't stop Everett high school" feelings were present in a lot of people. Here are my takeaways. Let me know how you feel.

• I think this defense is not as good as a lot of us wanted to believe all year, but last night was also an extreme inaccurate example of our worst football
  
  
• Seattle played great and deserved that victory, but like any teams losses, last night we uncharactersitaly had too many mistakes on both sides that I wouldn't expect to continue
  
  
• the offense seeming un-new England like was more of a product of playing the best overall defense in football, and less a product of bad mistakes, though we did has a few
  
  
• to go along with that, I think last nights defense was more about how many terrible mistakes we made on defense and less about our inability to stop them. I can't rememeber a game where so many of our starters looked completely lost. So many. Blown assignments, DBs looking around in confusion at each other after Big wide open games. Seattle didn't do anything special or that we haven't seen before, I think we just had a terrible night and those things happen sometimes. We seem to always have an uncharacteristic complete breakdown on defense once a year. This was that game.
  
  
• I think it's safer to say we are closer to a 14-18th ranked defense instead of the the fringes of the top 10 or a bottom 5 defense like we played last night. The good thing is that tom Brady and BB have made some noise with much worse defenses. 2011 we brought our bottom 2 defense to the super bowl and held the giants to a low scoring and that our offense ended up blowing.
  
  
• BB is a master at tightening up or defense in the playoffs. This was also our first game back with Jamie and I that it was a large factor in our performance. Jamie being traded took a large emotional toll on our defense and I think people like Hightower would admit that behind closed doors. The further removed we get from the trade and the more game time we have without him the better we will play without him. Even if he was "freelancing" or having a "down" year, he still was a constant rock and force in our defense and playing without him will take time to get used to.
  
  
• the positives to me are that- despite our defense playing the worst game I've seen out of them all year, (and probably worst game since 2012-2013) and our offense making some mistakes we usually don't make, we still moved the ball at will in the second half and left a bunch of points on the board. If driving down the field at will in the second half on ten best defense in football and losing on the goal line is as bad as it's going to get for our offense, then I feel fantastic about them going forward
  
  
• the Jules fumble was just a great play by Seattle, but Brady's int, our failure to go for 2 on a couple of scores, and our failure to convert a couple red zone trips into TDs are not really "typical" problems that plague us. Like I said, Seattle played great and held us to 24. But if 24 against the best defense in the league, when it easily should have been in the 30s because of our own uncharacteristic mistakes, is a "bad" night for us then I feel okay. We saw what Brady did with a worse offense in xlix.
  
  
• overall this game sucked and will largely be a throwaway game when we look back on it. Sometimes you just don't have "it." Seattle is a top 3 team and we didn't play patriots football tonight. Sometimes this happens. We have 7 games left and 5 of them are very favorable situations. Hopefully we can have a couple confidence building games defensively over the next few games and get to form for the playoffs.
  
  
• the last thing that goes in our favor is that the raiders, chiefs, and broncos all have to play each other 3ish times down the stretch and will definitely beat up and trade losses with each other.
  
  
• at the end of the day we had an unpatriot loss , but that happens. I fully expect this team to rip off at least 5-6 out of our final 7 and be right back where we always are----> playing for a super bowl berth in NE. Every season we have awful losses that make us think "wow, I can't see us being competitive in the playoffs this year", but we also usually have 12+ victories that show other wise and usually can look back and laugh at our bad losses when it's all over.

Lets go blow the doors off of SF, NY, and Baltimore and then solidify the 1 seed in Denver. Unless we meet them again in the super bowl, we won't play another team as complete as Seattle. I'll put my money on BB in a rematch

Thing about the KC game is that we still had a wealth of talent on that defense. On paper we should have been very good. And we ended up being just that.

This current defense is devoid of talent in a number of areas. I'm not sure it can improve much.

 

[luuked]

I felt that the 2nd down Brady sneak was likewise a burn-the-time play. The thing I wondered about is, if they had gotten the TD would Belichick have attempted the 2pt conversion and end the game right there?

I wrote the same thing in a different thread. I am pretty sure BB would have gone for the 2pt conversion. And why not ? Would be an interesting statistical question but I'd say that yesterday's probability to win via 2pt conversion was higher than via OT.

 

[archstanton543]

Is that a dismissal of Belichick being stupid by injecting himself into a majorly divisive and vicious election? For a person in his position he should know to avoid being a distraction.

BB's an American and can vote for whoever he wants. He also has the right to talk about it. People need to grow up.

 

[SVN]

Curran: Patriots leaky defense a cause for real concern

In their 31-24 loss to Seattle, the Patriots defense allowed 17 completions of 10 or more yards. There were 10 plays of 15 or more yards, including the 20-yard pass interference on Justin Coleman. The Seahawks had completions of 14, 15, 18, 20 and 38 yards on third downs. Five of their six third-down conversions on the nights were chunk plays.

On its seven-play touchdown drive before the half, Seattle had completions of 14, 24 and 12 yards, capped by an 18-yard touchdown to Doug Baldwin when Baldwin scooted through the Patriots zone and was left naked and alone in the end zone for the score.

In the fourth quarter, after an line-drive kickoff to the dangerous Tyler Lockette that was lugged out to the Seattle 37, Russell Wilson had a 19-yard completion on first down, followed, two plays later, by a 38-yarder to C.J. Prosise on third-and-6 down to the Patriots 2.

ugh