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Idle thoughts - The short rainy edition


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patfanken

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1. Kudos to all those fans who endured the weather conditions and cheered our team on today. Its one thing to get wet when it rains, but totally another when its 35 degrees out and the wind's blowing just enough to make it worse. The separate thread Joesixpack started is very much deserved. I was uncomfortable walking the 30 seconds from my car to the gym this afternoon, I can't image the courage it took to sit and cheer for 3+ hours. :eek:

2. I hate to keep harping on the injury situation, but watching the litany of Pats players needing medical attention was just getting more painful as each player went down. Dobson and Mankins, and Salliga, and Spikes, and Arrington, I thought it would never stop. It seemed almost miraculous to see Mankins come back. Watching him having to be helped off the field after he got rolled up on, left us all wondering if he too was gone for the year. Can this team ever catch a break. If there was ever a team that both needed and deserved a bye, its our home team.

3. Obviously I can't go any longer without discussing Legarrette Blount, who desperately needs to either get a new first name or at least a nickname. He had himself a career day that any RB would be proud of. 344 total yds is just a huge number that's hard to even contemplate.

I also have to keep mentioning that, its not like he was running this way at the start of the season. Its only been in the last 4 or 5 games that LB has been the overpowering terror that keeps moving the pile for 4-8 yd gains, PLUS adding explosive runs as an added bonus. It should also be noted that there were some pretty big holes that the OL opened up and the Bills only rank 22nd vs the run (and probably a lot worse after this game)

But for me, the most impressive aspect of Blount is NOT the big gains, but those pile pushers that seem to come more consistently as each game passes over the 2nd half of the season. That kind of result is going to be so important for these playoffs.

4. Blount's turn around is all about the coaching. He didn't run with this kind of violence when he was in TB (according to TB fans who watched him on a regular basis) He certainly wasn't running this way according to my eyes in TC and for the first half of the season. No, Blount's dramatic improvement clearly has to be partially the result of the Pats coaching staff (take a bow Ivan Fears) getting him to change his priorities, and run like a 250lb back should. His primary job should be to create 4 yards when there is only a soft spot there. If he just does THAT consistently, then all those time where there is a real hole are a bonus.

This offense operates best when its 3rd down and 5 or less. The way the running game is going now, the Pats can afford to throw on first down and run on 2nd, and be likely to be in a manageable 3rd down situation. That's going to make the play action passing game even more effective and cause serious problems for DC's

5. And just in case no one noticed Steven Ridley averaged over 6ypc and was just about the only guy who DIDN'T fumble. :eek: I don't think there is much question that the Pats have the best 3 man RB rotation in the playoffs.

6. We shouldn't forget that the OL has a large part in the success of the running game lately. Clearly this particular OL is much more comfortable running the ball than pass protecting. But pass protecting is going to get a bit easier to do now that the running game is reaching its peak

7. I don't know how much we can take on the passing game from this game. The conditions clearly weren't conducive to throwing the ball. Tom Brady is probably the greatest bad weather QB in the history of the game and it was obvious that the weather was affecting him and his accuracy. (not to mention the receivers) It wasn't just raining out there, it was POURING.

8. I'm worried about Dobson. It was reported he left with a boot on, and its the same foot he hurt before. Without Gronk he's the ONLY size when we get into the redzone. You can only rely on bunch formation pick plays so much before good D's will start to squeeze them.

9. One comforting thing was that Nate Solder seemed to survive the game with no further head problems. The OL isn't gong to survive his loss again. Mankins might be able to plug in on an emergency basis for a game or two, but for a 3 game playoff series, teams will start to find his holes. He's a G for a reason.

10. The defense's problems are more difficult to talk about. While a good number of Thad Lewis' passing yardage came while the Pats were nursing 2 score leads for most of the game, 270 yds to the offensively challenged Bills passing game seems a bit high. Not the secondary's best game....but not the worst either. Lewis had barely a 50% completion rate and the Bills were only 4 for 13 in 3rd down situations.

11. The front 7 did give up 164 rushing yards, but Spiller and Jackson are an excellent RB duo as is the Buffalo running game (2nd in the league). Its also interesting to think about this stat. While our much maligned rush D finished the season 18th this season in run defense, our likely opponent in the AFCCG finished 9 slots WORSE. That team stat is even made more impactful when you consider the fact that teams would often have to dismiss their running games after falling so far behind the prolific Denver offense.

12. I'm not a big Brandon Spikes fan. I think he guesses far too much and often takes himself out of plays that end up being big runs (JMHO), but given the pregame report that Spikes was already playing with a damaged knee that would need surgery this off season, watching him limp off the field, never to return, does worry me.

13. I wonder if Steve Gregory's recent spate of tackling problems has anything to do with the shoulder/arm problem he's had recently. IIRC he was one of our top tacklers in the first part of the season.

14. Logan Ryan may have 5 picks but this secondary misses Dennard. I'm starting to get concerned about his extended absence. We need him back.

General Stuff:

15. I was rooting for SD to get into the playoffs, but that was before they were just plain lucky to beat the KC JV's in OT. How can a team that is in a win and in situation NOT put away at team that has sat its QB and a dozen other starters AT HOME! :eek: In my mind they forfeited their right to be in the playoffs with that performance....or lack thereof.

BTW - It was reported that the league acknowledged that SD had broken a stupid rule about having too many players on one side of a FG Block on the Ryan Succup 41 yd FG missed that allowed SD to get into the OT. There should have been a flag on that play. I just point that out because we are going here about that lack of a call for the rest of the offseason from whiny Steeler fans who will now claim there is a conspiracy against their team to keep them out of the playoffs.

16. I have heard all year about how weak the AFC is this year. But I happened to notice that 5 of the 6 AFC playoff teams have 11 or more wins. I think that's pretty impressive. I doubt very much that in those so called "glory days when there were "good teams", 5 of the 6 playoff teams could match that kind of win total.

I mention this only because it really irks me when mediots routinely state that there aren't any good teams anymore. Well for as long as I can remember you had to be a damned good team to win 11 games in a season. This complete lack of logic just astounds me, and what frustrates me more is that they say it so casually, as if what they are saying is irrefutable. No one ever calls them on it, or questions it.

17. I'm glad Rex is back. (as I said in the thread). On entertainment value alone, he is good for the Pats/Jets rivalry. He's done a good job under difficult circumstances and deserves another year IMHO.

I'm not worried about him. His defenses might be a puzzle to some teams, but since the 2010 playoff loss, the Pats have averaged OVER 30ppg in 5 of 6 games. Even in a loss, while clearly offensively shackled the Pats got 27 this year. Only in game 2 did the Jets truly stifle the Pats offense. That's one game in 3 years. Clearly Josh and BB have solved the Ryan puzzle.

That devastating loss is going to end up being Rex's highpoint of his career, and the 2nd biggest win in Jets history. But its been pretty much all downhill since that game over the last 3 years
 
On the AFC being weak note, the easy method to determine the strength of one conference versus another is to count up the number of wins and losses for the non-conference games in the standings. I may be slightly off after a quick tally, but I count 34 losses to the NFC, which means the AFC record against the NFC is 30-34-0, which is fairly even. I recall back in 2006 when the AFC won 44 games and the NFC only won 20. THAT was lopsided.

Although, I am glad we're in the AFC to be honest. I'd rather not be playing the NFC playoff teams. I do think they're stronger.

Go Pats.
 
I think dennard played, it was mccourty who was absent
 
They missed McCourty badly yesterday. Not having an over-the-top FS yesterday really hurt them on the 3rd and longs...
 
I think dennard played, it was mccourty who was absent

Dennard did not dress. He has played only a handful of downs that last few weeks due to knee and shoulder injuries, but was not the same player as he was when healthy.
 
Slightly concerned about Dobson. I view him as a decoy. For the most part, he hasn't connected on those deep passes for one reason or another all year. He hasn't really helped us in the red zone so far either. I'm hoping he breaks out in the playoffs.

I disagree about Blount. He was running pretty hard early in the season and wasn't getting enough touches. He was ripping the Bengals apart, but was then placed on the bench after Dunlap karate chopped the ball out of his arm. This game actually felt a lot like that game where our passing game was nonexistent and the only difference is we fed our power backs. We also didn't have Ridley that game.

Also, I feel that most of Ridley's yards came after Blount softened them up. I feel this way because after Blount got a little rest or miniature timeout for fumbling, our offense stalled for a little while until Blount came back. Ridley's explosive burst up the gut is a nice compliment to the bulldozer.

Gregory for a few weeks has been regressing back to his shoddy tackling and lack of aggression in general when coming down to stop the run. I want Dennard back as well. Justin Green, unlike Cole, may actually be a viable cb if injuries keep piling up.

Our run defense wasn't that bad. Siglia seems to get better each week. He holds his ground pretty well. What is up with Chandler Jones not setting the edge consistently? He was the reason for a few of Spiller's long runs.

The Afc is just fine imho. Just because Jax and Cle suck, they want to lump everybody with them. Didn't the mighty Saints lose to us and the Jets. At one point they were looked at as arguably the NFC's best. Panthers barely beat us and the dolphins. People mock the afc east so why are they struggling against us.
 
Gregory broke his thumb in November
 
10. The defense's problems are more difficult to talk about. While a good number of Thad Lewis' passing yardage came while the Pats were nursing 2 score leads for most of the game, 270 yds to the offensively challenged Bills passing game seems a bit high. Not the secondary's best game....but not the worst either. Lewis had barely a 50% completion rate and the Bills were only 4 for 13 in 3rd down situations.

That + No Dennard yesterday + No McCourty yesterday = I'm not worried about the secondary

They'll be back and healthy in 2 weeks.

I'm far more concerned about Spikes' knee with both our starting DT's on IR for the playoffs. With no Spikes backing them up, we are asking an awful lot of Siliga and Chris Jones to win a Super Bowl.
 
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That + No Dennard yesterday + No McCourty yesterday = I'm not worried about the secondary

They'll be back and healthy in 2 weeks.

I'm far more concerned about Spikes' knee with both our starting DT's on IR for the playoffs. With no Spikes backing them up, we are asking an awful lot of Siliga and Chris Jones to win a Super Bowl.

"Healthy" is a bit overstated -- but yeah, I expect the secondary to look a lot better after the bye. I just hope they'll hang onto the potential INTs Dalton will probably be throwing near them.

You're right to worry about the run defense, although I'm not sure that impaired Spikes is a big improvement over no Spikes at all.
 
You're right to worry about the run defense, although I'm not sure that impaired Spikes is a big improvement over no Spikes at all.

Passing game, no. Running game, definitely.

I want him facing BJGE, Moreno or Lynch.
 
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With the way this team is running i say put the emphasis on running the first and pass second.The combination of Blount, Ridley, and Vereen would give any team problems. It would take the pressure off of TB to win the game, and with play action and reduce pass rush pressure on him.

Name for Blount... Hammer or the Hammer. Because thats what he does to the opposing teams D-line he hammers it.
 
Your number 8 is by far my biggest concern heading into the playoffs. Both for the Red Zone implications, but also for the field-stretching implications. I'm particularly concerned when you compare our red zone targets with a team like Denver's (6'5 J. Thomas, 6'4 D. Thomas, 6'3 E. Decker). Obviously, a dominant running game like we saw yesterday would mitigate this problem somewhat.
 
Dennard did not dress. He has played only a handful of downs that last few weeks due to knee and shoulder injuries, but was not the same player as he was when healthy.

Maybe someone who has access to the all-22 can tell us: Do the Pats play any man coverage without Dennard?

It seems like they play much less. If so, he is very important ,but alas, it looks like he won't be able to help this year.
 
another insightful idle thoughts Patfanken......look forward to this every Monday morning.

IMHO, Pats run game could take us deep into the playoffs. Perfect counter to the Broncos pass offense.....keep #18 on the bench with long, long, drives.
 
With the way this team is running i say put the emphasis on running the first and pass second.The combination of Blount, Ridley, and Vereen would give any team problems. It would take the pressure off of TB to win the game, and with play action and reduce pass rush pressure on him.

Name for Blount... Hammer or the Hammer. Because thats what he does to the opposing teams D-line he hammers it.

Perish the thought, but if TFB ever goes down......

.....we'd have the Mallet handing it off to the Hammer.
 
As long as we don't call him Strawberry...

...or try and find a nickname that rhymes with 'blunt'...

:violent:
 
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As long as we don't call him Strawberry...

...or try and find a nickname that rhymes with 'blunt'...

:violent:

Blount Trauma
 
I have mixed feelings about yesterday.

I don't have much confidence that the running attack we saw yesterday translates to the postseason. We've run all over teams in the regular season before, but then gotten into the playoff and hit a brick wall. We can't count on that kind of output vs. whichever team we play in two weeks.

My other concern from yesterday was Brady's play. After being ridiculously locked-in for a long stretch here (basically from the Pittsburgh game on, his play has been absurdly good), he was inaccurate and indecisive.

For me, it's not a concern about Brady as much as the OL. When the OL is shoddy in pass-pro, as it's been for much of the year, it can (and I say only can b/c we've gotten by with the quick passing game) disrupt his decisiveness, and affect his accuracy. That can't happen in the playoffs.

On the other side of the ball, you have to feel good about what the play of Logan Ryan means for our depth chart. If Dennard comes back healthy in two weeks, with now a few weeks of rest, we'll have our strongest secondary yet. With Siliga's emergence normalizing our run defense a little bit, and making that less of an issue, we might actually see the defense carry this team in the postseason for the first time in a long, long time.
 
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