Idle Thoughts - The reflective edition

[patfanken]

Just a few thoughts about that amazing game and what's ahead for the Pats.

1. Disclaimer: I am among those who turned it to a different channel (in disgust)l when it hit 24-0, and while I wasn't convinced enough when it was 24-7, to turn back from the Mentalist episode where they did the Red John reveal, I managed to catch the TD that brought the Pats back to 24-21, and remained riveted to the screen thereafter. I'm not sure I should be ashamed or not. I mean WTF it was the Red John reveal

2. We should be so proud of this franchise. For over a decade they have virtually without exception done the one thing that should be their only obligation to us as fans. They have entertained us. I read somewhere that for a string of close to 60 straight games, even in defeat, the Pats have always been in games well into the 4th quarter.

IIRC they got their butt kicked by the Steelers a couple of times, and by the Bills back in 2003, but since 2001 you'd be hard pressed to find 5 games where the games weren't at least entertaining and competitive in almost every game they took the field. I think that's an astounding accomplishment that has gone under appreciated by both the media and fans

3. I'm very curious to hear about why Aaron Dobson played so little in the Denver game. Perhaps he was dinged. Perhaps he just a bad week of practice. Either way, it probably isn't anything that's long term. We all made a big deal about Thompkins being a healthy scratch the week before, and he had a very good game vs the Broncos.

4. Von Miller is a hell of pass rusher. It makes me even more pissed that we have to face him this year. He really should have been suspended for a full year for getting caught trying to overtly scam the drug testing policy. Just 8 games was another gift to those cheating bastards in Denver.

That hand slapping move he put on Solder was something I hope Jones learns, as well as that great inside spin move. I truly believe that Nate Solder is a top 5 LT in this league, and while he did win most of the time, Miller had more than his share of good moments against him. Certainly many more than any other rusher Nate has faced this year. Miller is a great player who we shouldn't have to be facing this year.

5. On the issue of Ridley's fumbling. I think the answer is quite simple and abundantly clear. If the issue is poor technique in some way, then its up to the coaches to do what's necessary to correct it. Clearly the kid isn't doing it on purpose and is willing to be coached. So if its an issue of poor technique the onus is on the staff to find ways to correct it, and Ridley to implement those coaching points.

The ONLY reason to even think about getting rid of him, is if he continues to make the same technique errors that expose the ball and causes the fumble. However if he shows to the coaching staff that he is making his best effort to do what's right, then he should still be our top RB option.

Fans have to remember that fumbles are caused as much by good defensive play than by bad offensive technique. Getting knocked out on you feet like Blount did, is NOT his fault. That was just a great hit by the defense. Just like Ridley's fumble vs Pittsburgh (if it even was a fumble and not an incompletion) was just a great play by Polamanu.

While I don't subscribe that he always carry the ball with 2 hands through the line, I would have him eschew his practice of sometimes turning his back to defense and in fact he should forget about any spin moves until he can get back on track and regain some confidence.

What I don't understand is the extreme focus on Ridley by the media and fans. The Pats fumbled 6 times the other night, Ridley was only responsible for one of them. The intense focus certainly isn't going to help him get better, and could make it worse. Tom Brady had a horrible penchant for fumbling early in his career. IIRC, he made it a point of emphasis to do what he had to, to improve on that one off season, and the fumbles decreased. Now, while he still fumbles now and again, its not something he's "known for"

Of course we are all familiar (or should be) about Kevin Faulk's long journey back from being known as a "serial fumbler" to a guy known for being excellent at protecting the ball. Faulk should he a lesson for all the haters who want to immediately want to throw the baby out with the bathwater and do something drastic. Remember the "haters" live to criticize. It makes their sad lives somehow seem more meaningful.

BTW- its alright to criticize the fumbling, just not from a self righteous and unforgiving point of view The problem exists. That's not in question.l Its just how we choose to solve it....or not.

6. The problems with our defensive injuries still exist. Dennard didn't make it to the 3rd quarter, and I very much doubt we will see him this week Talib didn't play a full game either. (though the game he DID play was outstanding) Plus I'm sure Arrington will be limited all week, and I doubt Gregory will be back for Houston either.

And don't get me started with the rest of the defense. After what I thought was a remarkable success in Carolina, the run defense was crushed again. Sure I know that some of the blame has to go to the scheme. But some of it has to do with the talent, or lack thereof in the forcing unit (front 7).

7. On the negative side. Neither Sapunaga or Hightower played after the 2nd quarter. Like Dobson it could be injury related....or not. Hightower's absence was particularly disturbing to me. Its clear to me he deeply is missing JMayo's presence. He's not having a good 2nd season....to this point

8. On the plus side, Jamie Collins seemed to have emerged from the desert to play a prominent, though small, role in the victory Sunday night. He played 22 snaps (according to Reiss) and for many of them he showed well. Clearly he has some freakish athletic skills. And just as clearly he is very raw and needs to be developed into a role.

Its taken this long for him to earn some key snaps in big time situations, so we know there is progress and I look forward to seeing the finished product down the line. Is he going to become the 2nd coming of Roman Phifer and be the coverage LB the Pats have lacked for so long, or is he the 2nd coming of Willie McGinest, an extra large LB who can set the edge, AND speed rush the passer. It will be interesting to see what a full off season in the weight room will produce

 

[patfanken]

9. Also Kudos need to go out to Ryan and Harmon for stepping up both in the running and passing game. They did a fine job period, not just for rookies.

10. Finally the more I read, the more I am impressed with the so called 2-4-5 defensive scheme that the Pats used to totally throttle the most impressive passing game in the league. Even on Denver's tying drive in the 4th quarter. It took 3 great routes and catches from one of the top 5 WR's in the league, plus the 3 best throws of the night by a HOF QB (and 2 calls from the refs that sometimes aren't called) for that drive to succeed. The only pass that could be considered even marginally "open" was the TD pass. The rest were all tightly contested great throws and catches.Think about it. Holding the Broncos to 150 passing yds in 36 attempts was just epic. Just remember this is a passing offense that was creating historic numbers prior to this game.

It also took a lot of courage to keep going to it even while the Broncos were carving up the Pats during the game on the ground (280 rushing yds). They played both Manning and the wind like a drum.

Look for this to become the "blueprint" for those who play them down the road. KC has the DL/LB talent to be more successful against the run and even more talent and experience in the secondary than we have.

11. I hope this finally ends any more of the Brady/Manning so called comparisons. While I acknowledge Manning is a great first ballot HOF QB, there is really no comparison when it comes to where he is in the discussion of "greatest QB in NFL history" Brady is simply on another level. The difference was there to see. So much of Manning's numbers came from him playing in a dome.

12. Denver fans must see the writing on the wall now. There is no way that they are going to win the 3 playoff games necessary to win a Superbowl if they have play all of them in likely sub freezing weather. Their chances go down even further if they don't get a bye and have to play 4 cold weather games. Conversely the Pats chances go up because they happen to have the best bad weather QB in the history of the game.

14. Danny Amendola had even less impact on the game than Wes Welker. Actually I take that back. Welker DID have a key impact with his drop and punt misplay, but in offensive production, neither had any real impact.

I'm sure there would still be many who still rather have Wes back. I'm not one of them. To my eyes, I see him slowing down. There is no way that in his prime Jamie Collins would have been anywhere close to him to knock that pass key pass away.

Clearly Wes is having a much better year than Danny, but in the long run, I think the Pats will do well. I still see the potential we saw in the Amendola we saw literally win the Buffalo game with a bad groin. I expect we will see that DA again before the season's over.

What I am excited about is the prospect of a Tom Brady that is going to go back to the guy who used to spread the ball around more. The Tom Brady who did not automatically look to the Wes Welker comfort food but throws to the open man and threatens all areas of the field.

Besides, except for the TD's (9vs4) Edelman matches Welker's stats almost identically, without the advantage of having 2 high end WR's and a top flight offensive TE surrounding him all year . And between Edelman and DA, the Pats haven't given up anything at all from their slot receivers with over 900 yds between them.

Plus the hidden advantage. Image how much Brady would have depended on Wes if had been here, with Gronk out and the new rookie WR's. While he would have had another astounding stats year, with even more targets and catches than he has right now, that kind of dependence would have impeded the development of the young WR's and the offense as whole. and I doubt would have translated into anymore wins.

I'm sure Wes will continue to be productive in Denver, and will wind up with over 1000 yds and very close to 100 catches or more. He was an excellent pick up for the Broncos and well worth the 6MM they are paying him. That being said, I'm going to be surprised if, at the end of the season, they pick up his option and pay him the $6MM due him for next year.

They have to pay both Decker and DThomas, PLUS have JThomas on his 4th and final year of his rookie contract. How much money can the Broncos allocate to their receivers without starting to hurt the rest of their team. Welker is going to be asked to take less money or get released, IMHO

15. Houston's nightmare season should be a good object lesson of how closely matched the talent level is in this league and what a SMALL margin of error there is that separates victory and defeat. It also should point out how important the mental aspect of this game is as one of the great separators between good teams and bad ones and how much coaching affects the outcome.

This team has just as much talent as the Pats and perhaps more. There is going to be a HCing job open there at the end of the season, and if I were a HC candidate looking to make a fast start, this would be the job I'd take. They have a lot of talent already and will like be picking in the top 5 of each round

16. The key to this game will be getting a fast start. For the fans, this will be their superbowl, and the longer they are in the game the bigger the fact it will be. If we get off to a fast start, the fans will turn on them, and the players will likely roll over too, and we should perhaps get to see some Ryan Mallett time. However if we play poorly or turn the ball over often, this team is more than talented enough to make it a dog fight.

17. I'm not sure this team has the talent to survive all the injuries they've had so far, plus the ones I'm afraid are sure to come, to win a superbowl. But the fact remains that this team could be among the most mentally tough of BB's 14.units (with 2001 being the most mentally tough IMHO) And regardless of how this season turns out, this team is going to go down as one of MY personal favorites.




.....and now its your turn

 

[everlong]

Dane Fletcher has gotten no love this week and he was awesome even without the forces fumble.

Regarding paying the receivers.....just like Indy they will and then when they can't pay the defense which in fact they need to continue to build it will be well Brady had better defenses.

 

[patsox23]

Good stuff, as always, Ken. But I don't think there's ANY chance Denver cuts Welker next year or risks alienating him, or other players in that locker room, by asking him to take a pay-cut from a relatively cheap deal one year after the ink dried. I suspect they'll let Decker walk.

 

[Gwedd]

I agree completely about how it's to our long term advantage to let Welker go.

There's no way that Thompkins, Dobson, et al get better if WWW is in their being TFB's binky. The loss of WWW, coupled with Hernandez and Woodhead has forced the young'ns to learn on the fly and step it up, as well as let TFB get back to his "spread" offense.

If the Patriots can hold on to Edelman and Amendola next year, then they, coupled with the confidence of the young WR's ought to make things a whole lot better next year.

And you are square in the black with the Ridley/Faulk comparison. I was thinking exactly the same thing. Faulk used to have to tote a round a football with a 6-foot lanyard attached to it wherever he went and had to keep other teammates from yanking it out of his hands. It was a strong, but excellent lesson for him and we all know how it turned out.

 

[upstater1]

About turning the game off after 24-0, I'm not here to criticize or even to get a dig in. But I have to say, watching those first few series was incredible. I just knew the Patriots were going to win the moment that Ball fumbled it. That was the fun of the game, where most of the thrill came.

 

[hyperpat]

Great post, as always, Ken. Your stuff is better than most sports journos. Look forward to 'em after each game.

As for Welker, I agree that BB saw how dependent Tommy was on Wes. I'm thinking BB decided he had to make Tom break the Wes habit cold turkey. Welker had to go so Tom could resume his practice of throwing to the open man. It was a rough first few games breaking in the rooks and with Gronk out, but now the worst is over.

But that was only one reason for BB showing Wes the door.

I thought last year that Wes's big drop in the Ravens game was the final straw for BB. The dude is great during the regular season but I think the spotlight gets to him. After the Broncos first game of the season, when Welker dropped that punt near the goal line, I posted that it was an example of why BB let him go. And then last night we saw a similar high pressure mistake in not stepping up and fair catching the OT punt. Ty Law was brutal on the Comcast post game show when he said "Welker didn't have the courage to fair catch that punt."

Understand that this is a little too simplified and that there were money and contract elements involved, but really think that at the core BB knew this about Wes and decided it was best to let him walk.

 

[upstater1]

Dane Fletcher has gotten no love this week and he was awesome even without the forces fumble.

Regarding paying the receivers.....just like Indy they will and then when they can't pay the defense which in fact they need to continue to build it will be well Brady had better defenses.

I was just going to start a thread with the title, "Dane Fletcher," and the body would have said, "He played very well."

 

[patfanken]

Well look at it. DThomas is gong to cost at least 10MM/yrr and I wouldn't think that that Decker is going to sign for anything less than $5MM/yr, so if they keep Welker and his $6MM they will be allocating around $21MM of their cap on 3 WR's Add Manning's 20 odd million and you have about a 3rd of their cap room being spent on 4 offensive players.

I'm not sure, but I don't think the Bronco's have that kind of cap room to spend on so few players. I'm sure like every team, Thomas and Decker aren't their only potential FA signings they have to deal with.

The Fact is that not team can afford to have 33% of their cap spent on 4 players. Add to that fact that Wes isn't going to get any better, they might just have no choice.

 

[Nunchucks]

Would have liked th e OP, but switched for the mentalist? You only get 16 reg season games a year, cherish each one.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Patfanken, Dobson was switched out because KT was more suited for what the offense needed to do to win. It was many quick passes and play action. Not what Dobson is best for. Dobson is the almost strict x receiver that stretches the field. With the oline sucking the 1st half, there wasn't really a chance for Dobson to complete his role. So KT came in. But what we have seen, KT and Dobson are 2 very special receivers. And the fact they have played a lot of games and snaps is going to start paying off when we hit important games.

 

[Tunescribe]

I am among those who turned it to a different channel (in disgust)l when it hit 24-0, and while I wasn't convinced enough when it was 24-7, to turn back from the Mentalist episode where they did the Red John reveal ...

I find this shocking coming from you. Even when they're shytting the bed, I still watch every play.

 

[nabwong]

I find this shocking coming from you. Even when they're shytting the bed, I still watch every play.

This. I even watch kneel downs.....by the opposing team. There's only 16 regular season games. I can watch everything else on amazon prime or netflix.

 

[everlong]

I find this shocking coming from you. Even when they're shytting the bed, I still watch every play.

Even when they're she-arting the bed in the preseason I watch every play.

 

[everlong]

Well look at it. DThomas is gong to cost at least 10MM/yrr and I wouldn't think that that Decker is going to sign for anything less than $5MM/yr, so if they keep Welker and his $6MM they will be allocating around $21MM of their cap on 3 WR's Add Manning's 20 odd million and you have about a 3rd of their cap room being spent on 4 offensive players.

I'm not sure, but I don't think the Bronco's have that kind of cap room to spend on so few players. I'm sure like every team, Thomas and Decker aren't their only potential FA signings they have to deal with.

The Fact is that not team can afford to have 33% of their cap spent on 4 players. Add to that fact that Wes isn't going to get any better, they might just have no choice.

Let me rephrase. What you're saying from the start on this topic is very logical. However they're going to do what it takes to keep Manning happy. As much as everybody says Manning just wants to win they miss the footnotes that say not at the expense of his stats and weapons fuel his stats. Footnote two says not at the expense of his salary. He's not doing what Brady has done to add more depth and win. With that Papa John's is paying him you would think he would.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

After years in the SEC, and three years in the NFL I'm quite sure Ridley has been shown the proper technique for holding a football. And I don't think effort is what counts in the NFL. He's clearly the best runner on the team and I'd like him to get over this but it's all on him.

After fumbling the previous two games, to come into this game with that sloppy spin is just unbelievably reckless.

 

[everlong]

Google Stephen Ridley and click on images. The ones where he's holding the ball low and loose out number the high and tight 5:1.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I didn't realize Hightower was out late on. Fletcher and Collins looked solid.

I'll call it even with BB on drafting safeties who no one knows. Wilson is a bust, but Harmon has been a pleasant surprise in a competitive secondary.

 

[Gwedd]

Let me rephrase. What you're saying from the start on this topic is very logical. However they're going to do what it takes to keep Manning happy. As much as everybody says Manning just wants to win they miss the footnotes that say not at the expense of his stats and weapons fuel his stats. Footnote two says not at the expense of his salary. He's not doing what Brady has done to add more depth and win. With that Papa John's is paying him you would think he would.

I'm gonna step up ans say that, IMHO, there's a very real chance that Denver says Buh-Bye! To Manning after the season. How many chokes can he have before he get's shown the door? Indy did it. They showed him some love, but they still said seeyah!

Elway and the rest of the Broncos braintrust/management can't be happy so far. They see the all-too-predictable Manning that jumps off to a fast start and then manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at the worst possible time.

Manning only has so many games left in him. At some point, Denver needs to look at reloading their talent, and it may come down to whether they keep a couple skill players OR Manning.

I respect Manning for his abilities as a football player, but if Denver ends up with a wildcard berth and ends up one-and-done, or having to come to Foxboro for a playoff game, then management would have to do some serious thinking about his future there. After all, Tebow won as many playoff games with Denver as Manning has.

 

[everlong]

I don't think so. Manning if nothing else sells tickets and what' the alternative Brock Osweiler? No they'll ride him until the end.