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Idle thoughts - The confused edition


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patfanken

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I had a router problem that Comcast couldn’t fix for about a week so I’ve been missing. Not a bad week given the Jet game result, but it was frustrating nonetheless. I got back on line Sunday, but felt it was too late to talk about the Jets and I didn’t have much to say about the Fins before the game started.

But after being hyped up by the Pats win, the Sox dramatics and an old man’s insomnia, I have a lot to say after this game, so lets get started.

1. Old news - I had 2 things to say about the Jets game that has lingered all week, so I might as well get them off my chest -

a. I am real curious about the OL consistency. I thought the Pats pass protection in the first quarter was solid. Then for no real apparent reason for the next 2 quarters they were like a sieve, looking as bad as I’ve seen them in the BB era. Then. for no apparent reason, were once again very solid for the last 15 minutes of the game.

I can’t recall another game in the recent past where the OL play was so dramatically inconsistent. Usually on any given day you either have it or you don’t and the other team gets the better of you. But on this day, the OL seemed to have it, lose it and then get it back again. I don’t remember ever seeing a game like that, and I’d love to be able to ask Dante what happened.

b. If there is a silver lining to the inexplicable call that directly led to the Pats loss, it is that from now on no Jet fan with any integrity can ever hold the “tuck rule” over our head, now that their team has been the beneficiary of an obscure rule that no one ever heard of. Of course as Jet fans they are probably incapable of seeing the parallel, and Jet fans with integrity are as rare as a 2 year old with patience

2. I’m as big a “homer” as there is here. My background as a former HS HC gives me at least a small understanding about what goes into all the decisions we see made every Sunday. So I’m more likely than most to defer to the coaches decisions and slower to complain about things I know so little about. But I wish someone would explain to me why this offense seems to be getting worse than getting better. So I’d appreciate so answers to the following

a. Steven Ridley is by far our best RB. Its evident by any metric. He’s quickest to the hole, most explosive, gains yards after contact. Yet for some reason he’s not getting the 20-25 touches he should be getting. Why is that? He hasn’t fumbled since the first game of the season, so it can’t still be that.

b. I want to know why the Passing offense is regressing, and I don’t just mean Brady’s sudden bout with inaccuracy, and I don’t mean the growing pains of all the new receivers. What concerns me is the design of the offense. After years of watching Josh scheme patterns that so often found receivers WIDE open, we watch with excruciating pain how almost every completion seems so hard and laborious.

All one had to do was watch a bit of the Denver game and see so often how they would have receivers running free in the opponents secondary, and its not just the difference in receivers. it’s the design of the routes

Now I don’t think that Josh woke up one morning and suddenly forgot how to be an offensive genius. But now we don’t seem to be capable of running screen passes, and the quick passes that worked so well in the past Suddenly they seem to be beyond our capability.

c. In game one Danny Amendola surpassed all our lofty expectations, despite playing the 2nd half with a badly pulled groin. We watched him out Welker, Welker. Even the most ardent Welker supported had to admit that he seemed to be able to do everything that Wes could do, and his production that game reflected it.

But now, for no apparent reason, he no longer is running the same routes that Wes ran…and Voila, he’s hasn’t come close to producing at the same rate as he did in his first week. I’m not seeing him run any crossing, pick, or option routes designed to get him the ball quickly. They seemed to work well vs. the Bills, but now they seemed to have disappeared from the offense.

d. The Bottom line here is that NOTHING in this offense is consistent. Gronk has a huge game against the Jets, then almost disappears in the Dolphin game. The same can be said for almost every skill player. All have shown occasional flashes of brilliance only to disappear the next game

3. I have been waiting for 3 years to see the kind of scheme based pressure that the defense showed in the second half of that game, when the Pats had 5 of their 6 sacks and all of their turnovers. Not that I want to see it every play, or even as much as we saw it done today. But I’d like to see at least the THREAT of scheme based pressure be used much more as this season goes on.

4. Is it just me, or does Logan Ryan look like a solid NFL CB right now. And its no just the 2 sacks he had today, but both in pass coverage and run support, he is starting to look more than just adequate. Like Dennard he is very physical with the WR’s and has a nose for the ball.

5. I think we have gotten more than we possibly could have hoped from CJones and TValano, but when you see us being gashed vs. the run the last 2 weeks, you can’t help but wonder how much more stout we would be in the middle with the likes of Deadrick and Love backing up Kelly and Wilfolk

Granted you can’t help but be impressed with the job Valano and Jones are doing in pushing the pocket. Still they are both just too undersized to be manning the middle full time. Joe Valano is no more 300lbs than Vince was 320. When he lined up next to Tommy Kelly he looked like his young son. Next time you get a chance watch his stand next to Dante Hightower in the huddle and tell me who you think is bigger.

6. More Kudos to Steve Gregory who has been a rock in the secondary both in the passing game and running game. Devon McCourty also had a very nice game. Given how poorly the offense played most of the afternoon, holding the Phins to under 200 yds passing was and excellent result

7. On the negative side, Donte Hightower looks to me to be a decent NFL LB. But not the kind of impact explosive player I thought he could be coming out of Alabama. He needs to be put in more positions where he can make and impact around the LOS, and LESS time trying to chase RB’s and TE’s around the secondary

8. IIRC the Dolphins were something like 10 for 11 in 3rd down conversions to start the game. I think they were 6 for 6 in their first 2 TD drives. The failure to get off the field on one of those 3rd down was very frustrating to me, because it showed the D WAS doing a few good things forcing so many 3rd downs, but just couldn’t make a play to get off the field. Obviously things got better as the game went on, but giving up that 3rd and 23 almost made my head explode.

That play was the one where I felt we should have faked the blitz to get him to throw to the hot short receiver, and then tackle him. Instead we send everyone again and got outflanked on the screen pass and they made the first down.

9. I couldn’t help think that that first half was about as bad as I’ve seen a Pats team play in over a decade. They didn’t even look competitive. When they trotted off the field at the end of the 2nd period, the thought of them scoring 24 unanswered points would have been considered ludicrous. Especially given how the first drive of the 2nd half went.

10. The Pats certainly got the benefit of a few good calls today. The PI on Gronk in the first half was a pure gift. That wasn’t even close. Also they got another bad call on the defensive holding on Dobson away from the play. It was kind of ironic since the Phins got away with so many far worse examples of holding. Finally in the end they might have gotten another one on the batted ball play. If you watch the replay several time in slow motion, you can make a case for the contact to be incidental and unintentional. However for the official who had to make the call in real time, it looked like it was a clear case of an illegal touch

11. On the other had the Pats had a few calls go against them as well. The holding on Solder was ludicrous. I would opine that that clip be sent to the rest of the league as a perfect example of how to pass block. Hands were inside and he stopped the rusher cold. In fact he did too good a job because when he pancaked the rusher it looked so bad the ref must have thought it had to be a hold.

The Dolphins also got the benefit of MANY muggings in the secondary that weren’t called. There was one key 3rd down play where Amendola was hit well before the ball got to him, and no call was made

12. I felt it was unfair that when on the 2nd extra point, where Miami held, the Pats had to take the 10 yds, yet when the Pats ran into the kicker, rather than moving the ball half the difference and re-kick, or since it was good, refusing the penalty, the Phins got to kick off from the 50.

My feeling is the rule should be changed so on an extra point when the offense holds, the defense should have the option to either move them back 10 and re-kick, or move them back 10 yds on the ensuing KO. Just a thought.

OK its almost 4am and I’m starting to ramble. Pittsburgh up next. Who knows what we’ll get. They are even a worse mess than we are. I still have to remember that we ARE 6-2 and 3-1 in the division. But the fact remains that this team still needs a lot of work, especially on offense and is capable of losing to anyone it plays.
 
Good post. Concur with your points especially about Ridley being used so sparingly, OL inconsistency, Threat of Scheme based pressure.
 
My guess is that Ridley is on a limited-carries count. It may be more approximate than pitch counts in baseball are, but it's something along those lines.

By the way -- he did get 20 carries today, on the nose.
 
Great post as usual..

Do not understand O line either...

The assessment of Logan Ryan is spot on, he is much better than advertised and is a defensive play maker, the kid has a nose for the ball.

I share the concerns about the passing game, is it Brady, playcalling or something else??.. All year we have been waiting for out receivers to be at full strength, it happens and not what was expected.

Know it is sacrilegious, but Brady looks off.. very much off, is it a sudden decline, health issues or head stuff?? Stay tuned..
 
I assume that BB and Patricia feel like Tannehill sucks under blitz pressure and decided to bring the house in the 2nd half. I doubt we'll see that approach again against good veteran QBs.
 
Here's a rules question:
In the Denver game. Manning gets stripped as he is about to pass. The defender who stripped Manning goes after the the loose ball and has an unimpeded path and clearly will be first to the ball. Manning jumps on his back trying to tackle the defender before he gets to the ball. The defender, even with Manning on his back, pounces on the ball and secures it.
Suppose instead....Manning's tackle from behind impeded the defender so much that a Denver player gets to the ball first and Denver retains possession. The officials correctly flagged Manning for offensive holding.....but if the hold prevented the defender from getting the ball....could the officials award Washington the ball?
I have to assume No....officials are not allowed to see into the future and assume Washington would gain possession even though that was the likely outcome. I also am assuming Manning has been trained to know a holding penalty is a better outcome than losing possession....because he immediately jumped the guy and went bareback.
Just a gray area....awarding possession without ever having possession......is it possible?
 
I think the o-line problems are directly related to blitz packages and stunts.

A good blitz can make any line look bad. Witness the Dolphins line in the second half.

The third down performance on both offense and defense is a big problem.

Brady clearly misses Welker, who was his first down machine, and the defense misses Talib, who I think would have stopped that 3rd and 23.

I think both the offense and defense are going through the learning curve of many young players, and injury replacements. Hopefully the bye will give them enough of a breather to work on their team cohesion.

As frustrating as it is to see them struggle, it's still gratifying to see that 6-2 record.
 
I'm concerned about the offense. I easily expected some time before it became effective, but we are now 1/2 through the season, and we really don't look any better than we did week 1

It's disturbing, and if by thanksgiving we do not improve, and become consistent on O....we will not make it far in these playoffs
 
Re: the offensive play calling...

Is it possible we've dumbed down this play book to the point it is, in fact, finally predicatble?

Are we lowering our standards to the level of our rookie WRs and finally admitting our playbook is too complicated?
 
For the last 6 years or so, I've been begging the Patriots to build a team that can win when Tom Brady doesn't play well. I have wanted a team that can win various styles - from a shootout to a grinder. I have wanted to see them get to the point where their defense and special teams can win a game for them if they have to.

And lookee here, isn't that pretty much what we have? They've won with offense (448 yards, 30 points in Atlanta). They've won with defense (13-10 win over the Jets). They've won when Brady has played well (vs. Atlanta). They've won when he hasn't played well (vs. Jets, vs. Dolphins). Heck, yesterday they won with the running game out gaining the passing game by 52 yards!

It's very, very strange to watch this Patriots team right now. Every game is tense. There's no sense that they're just going to destroy their opponent like we've had in the past 6 years or so. Every game is a struggle. But you know what? They're winning. 6-2 with a very manageable schedule could lead them to a 12-4 record. Which, given their circumstances, would be amazing.
 
Only thing I can think of is they are trying to keep Ridley as fresh as possible both for the game and the season? That explosiveness is tough to stop in the 4th quarter/ January when defenses are tired?
 
regarding #5, yes...the pats are giving up some bigger runs, but in today's league, the one thing that you can count on is that teams will still try to throw the ball regardless of how well their ground game is doing

Q1: -2, -1 / 3, 8, 0, 1, -1 / 3, 8, 2, 5.... 11 for 26 (2.4)
Q2: 11, 3, 1, 15, 4, 3 / 11, 18, 6, 4, 1.... 11 for 77 (7.0)
Q3: 5, 8 / 3 / -1 / 4 / 2.... 6 for 19 (3.3)
Q4: 11 / 12, 9, 3.... 4 for 35 (8.8)

if you look at the the play by play, what stands out is that the dolphins first drive of the 3rd quarter started with both the ground game and passing game being successful, but on a 2nd and 2 after an 8 yard run into the pats red zone, the dolphins had na incomplete and then got sacked, and missed the FG. They had a chance to turn it into a 3 score game with the FG, but squandered the opportunity because they HAD to throw the ball

a team is winning for the majority of the game, gains more yardage on the ground (156) than through the air (147) even though they threw the ball 13 more times than they ran it dies by throwing the ball.

works for me
 
"Now I don’t think that Josh woke up one morning and suddenly forgot how to be an offensive genius."

I don't think he ever was one. This is a guy who thought Tim Tebow was first round talent. I think he made a name for himself with HoF caliber players like Wes Welker, Brady and Moss which he leveraged into a head coaching job.
 
Great points about our scheme. Amendola was invisible, I keep waiting for him to assume the mantle of Wes on 3rd down and he is not even in the picture. Watching how Denver used Wes out of the backfield and on 3rd down and we cannot find ways to open guys up is frustrating. I even liked the Dolphins better than ours yesterday! They were more creative I thought on a number of plays.
 
"Now I don’t think that Josh woke up one morning and suddenly forgot how to be an offensive genius."

I don't think he ever was one. This is a guy who thought Tim Tebow was first round talent. I think he made a name for himself with HoF caliber players like Wes Welker, Brady and Moss which he leveraged into a head coaching job.

He is also the guy who got this offense to run very well with Matt Cassel as the QB in 2008 and he made Kyle Orton look like a very good QB one year in Denver. I think McDaniels is far better than you give him credit for.

And talent evaluation has nothing to do with being a good or great coordinator. If talent evaluation was an indicator how good of a coach you are, Belichick certainly wouldn't be one of greatest head coaches of all time. I think he is an above average talent evaluator, but certainly not at the level he is as a head coach.
 
In game one Danny Amendola surpassed all our lofty expectations, despite playing the 2nd half with a badly pulled groin. We watched him out Welker, Welker. Even the most ardent Welker supported had to admit that he seemed to be able to do everything that Wes could do, and his production that game reflected it.

But now, for no apparent reason, he no longer is running the same routes that Wes ran…and Voila, he’s hasn’t come close to producing at the same rate as he did in his first week. I’m not seeing him run any crossing, pick, or option routes designed to get him the ball quickly. They seemed to work well vs. the Bills, but now they seemed to have disappeared from the offense.

d. The Bottom line here is that NOTHING in this offense is consistent. Gronk has a huge game against the Jets, then almost disappears in the Dolphin game. The same can be said for almost every skill player. All have shown occasional flashes of brilliance only to disappear the next game.


We should make this clear unitil Danny Armendola lives up to his current contract...he should NEVER be mentioned in the same sentence as Wes Welker. If he cannot stay on the field and produce it's premature to say he's like Wes Welker and even more presumptuous to say he's better than Wes. Danny Armendola is as dissapointing as our Third Down Offense.
 
I don't know if it is Brady or the schemes, but there is something wrong if Brady is throwing to Gronk into triple coverage. If there are three guys on Gronk, there has to be someone else open. And if not, they are not using the offense correctly to take advantage of all that coverage directed towards Gronk.

My guess is that it is more on Brady than McDaniels. I don't think the Dolphins would consistently double and triple team Gronk if they thought Brady would throw elsewhere. I think the Dolphins saw that Brady really looked in Gronk's direction the week before and decided to let Brady have other options, but not Gronk. In the first half, it worked.

I think Brady's biggest weakness as a QB is that if he doesn't trust you, he gives up on you. He is more patient this year than most years, but there were times over the last two weeks that he forced the balls to Gronk when other guys were wide open.
 
I don't know if it is Brady or the schemes, but there is something wrong if Brady is throwing to Gronk into triple coverage. If there are three guys on Gronk, there has to be someone else open. And if not, they are not using the offense correctly to take advantage of all that coverage directed towards Gronk.

My guess is that it is more on Brady than McDaniels. I don't think the Dolphins would consistently double and triple team Gronk if they thought Brady would throw elsewhere. I think the Dolphins saw that Brady really looked in Gronk's direction the week before and decided to let Brady have other options, but not Gronk. In the first half, it worked.

I think Brady's biggest weakness as a QB is that if he doesn't trust you, he gives up on you. He is more patient this year than most years, but there were times over the last two weeks that he forced the balls to Gronk when other guys were wide open.

Brady has been inaccurate all year and his QB rating proves it. Not all of his demise can be attributed to the young WR's and Dropped passes. The guy can't seem to hit the broad side of a barn. Brady better start to trust our Receivers because Mega-Tron ain't coming through that door.
 
Good post as usual, Ken.

I too like Ridley's running style compared to Blount but I gotta hand it to the big fella, he's made some good runs. Its just frustrating to watch him get 0 yards and not move the pile given his size at times.

Ryan is becoming a good corner. We didn't see him until the 2nd half (along with Ridley) due to a coaches decision I suspect (i.e. benching).

The offense's 3rd and short (less than 4 yards) is a concern. I don't know if anyone here has access to the all 22 film but I have to believe there were some better options than the decisions Tom made. I think Bolden was open on a few but maybe Tom isn't as confident in him. Maybe when Vereen gets back, we see more RB catches.
I'd also like to see them move away from running as much as they do when they go hurry at the line. I know Bolden scored on one of these but it seems like defenses have caught up to this a bit. They have tried this tactic on several 3rd down plays this year only to get stopped. The play to Dobson in the first Jet game (I think that was from the hurry) where he scored uncovered is one I'd like to see some more.

Would love to hear BB mic'd for that second half and in particular the rational for the constant blitzes. I know the obvious answer is pressure but I'm sure we would have heard something very strategic and analytical.

We sure are getting some exciting games this year and although I've come to expect so much more in terms of offensive performance, from an emotional perspective, it sure had been a fun roller coaster.
 
I don't know if it is Brady or the schemes, but there is something wrong if Brady is throwing to Gronk into triple coverage. If there are three guys on Gronk, there has to be someone else open. And if not, they are not using the offense correctly to take advantage of all that coverage directed towards Gronk.

My guess is that it is more on Brady than McDaniels. I don't think the Dolphins would consistently double and triple team Gronk if they thought Brady would throw elsewhere. I think the Dolphins saw that Brady really looked in Gronk's direction the week before and decided to let Brady have other options, but not Gronk. In the first half, it worked.

I think Brady's biggest weakness as a QB is that if he doesn't trust you, he gives up on you. He is more patient this year than most years, but there were times over the last two weeks that he forced the balls to Gronk when other guys were wide open.

I think he is trying to go to a reliable target in those instances. He seems to not have alot of faith in the other receivers like gronk. I don't think its scheme either. But I think Tom just is at a cross roads mentally. Does he trust Dobson or go to gronk who will be in the right spot? I think after this game, he will trust Dobson some more.

He plays down his hand, but I am willing to bet its having an affect on his accuracy. He won't admit it, but I bet its bugging him. If he will trust Edelman, Dobson and amendola like he does gronk, the offense should improve in passing.
 
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