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Idle thoughts - the "cast off" edition


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patfanken

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Just came in from a New Years Eve Party, so I'm still a little lit and its already 1:30am so I'm not exactly sure how this one is going to turn out. HAPPY NEW YEAR everybody and my apologies in advance. :D

At first I was going to call this the "Happy New Year" edition but that was kind of trite. My next choice was the "so what" edition, in that does what happens under these game conditions and against the Jets, good or bad, really tell us anything about future events in the playoffs. At that time I really did't think so.

Then I saw the sack stats. There were 4 in this game. One for Lee. One for MFlowers. And TWO for James Harrison. Everyone the epitome of what a cast off truly is. Then when you take a closer look at key people in the roster you come to realize that this team is currently made up primarily of other people's trash, our own low draft choices, and UDFA's that litter the roster at every turn.

Just look at the list of players who were UDFA's when they came into the league
D Amendola
L Waddle
C Croston
D Andrews
J Hollister
B Hoyer
D Lewis
J Devlin
B Boldin
C Hogan
E Lee
A Butler
J Jones
M Butler
J Bademosi
B King
R Allen
J Harrison


For those of you keeping score that is over 33% of your current roster. Guys who weren't deemed to be good enough to be drafted by any of the 32 teams in the league.

Then if then count your players who came into the league being drafted in the 4th round or below the numbers are even greater, but I'm too tired to go through list. Feel free to do it yourself.

But the point of all this was to point out how good the coaching is here and how important good coaching is. This isn't any stacked roster of elite athletes like you see with Pittsburgh or Jags. Yet the perception is that the Pats always have a superior roster of talent. And perhaps they do. But that has more to do with how well these players are coached and motivated to play, than it has to do with their physical gifts.

OK I got that off my chest. Let's break down this game as quickly as possible so the discussion can get going on the playoffs.,,,and I can get to sleep

1 Offense - General

a. At first I was a little peeved when I saw the Jets taking Gronk completely out of the game plan simply by scheme. I even wondered if the Jets were given the rest of the league a "blueprint" of how to defend our biggest offensive weapon. Then I thought that Josh just didn't want to show our potential opponents just what those adjustments are going to be by using them against the Jets. So Gronk wasn't even targeted once, but he got a nice workout and was never in a position to get hurt.

b. I believe that when you are playing a game in the single digit conditions it WILL affect the ability of players to catch the ball. We had a few more drops today than we usually get, but on a day like today its a little more understandable. I was surprised there weren't more fumbles in the game. There was only one fumble and that one wasn't lost. In fact there were zero turnovers in the entire game. A credit to both teams given the conditions.

c. Hey Josh can we put that reverse to Cooks back on the shelf for the rest of this year. The Jets had no trouble recognizing it and Cooks is NOT a very good runner

d. QB- I counted a least 4 drops, which would have added around 100 more passing yds for Tom. There will be a lot of media narrative on how Brady wasn't particularly sharp. But it's hard to play when it's 10 degrees out there and you aren't aren't communicating well with your receivers and your best offensive weapon isn't in the game plan.

Last week the media conveniently forgot that Brady completed 75% of his passes because it didn't fit into the narrative that he hasn't been playing well recently. I'm sure the fact that he only completed around 50% of his passes, this stat will suddenly get mentioned a lot more than it did last week. :rolleyes:

At any rate, I'm confident that it will get better during the bye week. Why? Because they'll recognize what the problems are and work on them. The beauty of the bye week, as Bill pointed out in his presser, is that you have the time to work on YOUR issues, because you don't have to prepare for a specific team.

e. OL - The NFL stats page had the Pats giving up 2 sacks (both in the first half), but for some reason I thought there was 3. At any rate there was one coverage sack where Brady should have gotten rid of the ball, and one where he went down own own and wasn't hit at all. I thought the OL did OK. Not as good as last week, but not bad.
i
The run game was decent. There were fewer wide open holes than last week, and production was down. (149yds) As with the rest of the offense. There are things that need to be worked on this week.

f. RB's - With White, Gillislee and Burkhead all out today, Dion Lewis got 28 carries, which were about 10 more than I would have liked, but who else was going to get them. Clearly he loved being out there and he did well again. He even showed some of that Levion Bell patience running for a couple of good gains. He's proven that he CAN carry a heavy running load, and teams will have to respect that going forward. BTW- nice job by Boldin in his 9 carries. Nice to know that your #5 RB doesn't suck

g. Receivers - Not their best day. Its going to be cold for at least 2 games in the post season. So they better get used to it. Maybe its just me, but I don't think Cooks could have gotten to that long pass even if he hadn't slowed down in his route.

Yeah, Dorsett had a bad drop, but I don't huy the narrative that Brady doesn't trust him because he had 3 catches for the game and almost as many targets as the rest of the WR's.

With Gronk getting doubled EVERY time, I would have liked to see Allen or even Hollister more looks. What did Allen get, one target?.

h. Defense - General.

1. I thought Matty P called a conservative game today. More zone than man, and very few blitzes

2. All we talked about for a great part of this season was how the Pats needed to find some people to get some sacks and more pressure on the QB Well, while I'm sure it will remain a question of concern, it should be noted that with the 4 sacks the Pats got today, they will end the season with 42 sacks, which is good for a tie for SEVENTH in the league.

Now be honest. How many would have guessed at the start of the season, the Pats would end up that high in the league? And if you really want to be stunned, I just checked the stats and the 5th best scoring defense in the league is none other than our very own NE Patriots only .1 points behind that vaunted Eagles defense. IIRC, the team ranked LAST in the league after week 5. :eek: That is a remarkable accomplishment.

c. If I had to name one big concern this year it would be the defense's inability to create turnovers. If someone could find the current number, I bet it wouldn't be horrible, but nothing like the top D's in the league.

d. This has TRULY been a remarkable job by Matty P this season. It really stands out. Too many job openings for him NOT to get a serious look this year. I can only hope his beard and clown shirt will count heavily against him. ;)

e. If there is one thing you can rely on from the defense over the last half of the season, is that it WILL be better in the 2nd half than it was in the first. Today was no different.

f. Front Seven - One of the few areas that the Jets have consistently done well this season on offense is run the ball. Well the Pats held the Jets to 54 yds on 19 carries for a 2.8ypc average. And while the edges have been gashed from time to time, the middle area has been particularly solid for a while now and will only get better if Branch returns. Lawrence Guy and Malcolm Brown have been really good lately. In fact Brown has stood out. Could it be that he is "making the leap"....finally.

James Harrison had 5 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, all in 28 snaps. That is a scary good performance for a 39 year old guy who just showed up 6 days ago. I was fully prepared for him to be one and done. But he showed he might actually be a key contributor going forward.

KVN dressed, but I don't know if he played and if he did, how many snaps. He didn't get any stats and I don't remember seeing him. I don't mind, because I know for a fact, days like this aren't good for a pulled calf. I hope to hell he didn't aggravate it early in a set back.

Eric Lee to me is a try hard guy who, right now, is a flawed player, who can be a liability if played too much. However MFlowers has really impressed me with his recent play. He is really taking advantage of this opportunity. I thought he has set the edge better the more he's played, has rushed the passer fairly effectively, and made plays in the run game as well. BTW- now that I think on it, I might have been unfair to Lee, who is in his first year, while Flowers has been in the league four years.

Secondary - After allowing some early big plays on the Jets first drive, the Pats secondary tightened up. Some guy named Sterling did some damage early, but none of their 3 top threats, Kerse, Anderson, and Powell did anything. Their total passing yds were 71 yds COMBINED.

This secondary is really the key to the defensive success. They are deep, versatile, and I think are finally able to morph into something different each week. This week they held the Jets to a remarkable 0-12 on 3rd down attempts.

3. ST's - Ryan Allen had his best game of the season pinning the Jets inside their 5 on 3 separate occasion, with a tip of the cap to Slater for downing the ball on 2 of those.

The KO coverage unit was consistently good too allowing only one return to cross the 25, and that was on a really short KO to the 15. Plus kudo to Cardonna for making good snaps all game in these conditions.

4. General observations.

a The best thing about this game was that no one looked like they got hurt. Fingers crossed on that though.

b. I know it sounded bad so they had to throw the flag. But if you watch the replay of the Gilmore hit that cause the personal foul, it looked to me that he did everything in his power to avoid it. His shoulder was turned and he lifted his arm to give him a forearm shiver. It almost looked to me that their heads collided incidentally. Dare I say, a case could be made that Anderson's head instigated the contact. At any rate I'd like to look at that again closer. I don't think he'll get fined for it.

c. There was another play which wasn't called but Romo though it should have been, where Flowers looked like he was blocked into the QB low almost unintentionally. It looked worse than it was because it was a low hit, but there was no way Flowers could have avoided it.

d. I hated that Nance seemed to be implying that the Pats were "getting the breaks" because of all the key penalties the Jets were getting on 3rd downs. NONE of these calls were ever in question. I wish he would have emphasized that point.

e. I have always laughed at the common wisdom that "no one wants to see the Ravens in the playoffs", and that they were a threat to NE at Foxboro cause they won a game back in 2009 there. :rolleyes: I thought the Ravens would have been easy picking for the Pats and would have LOVED to play them and in one sense I'm sad they won't be in the hunt. On the other hand, how can you hate it when the Ravens lose. At least now we won't have to hear Harbaugh whine about the Pats getting a Saturday start. :rolleyes:

f. As much as we make fun of them (and deservedly so most of the time), you have to feel good about the Bills FINALLY making it into the playoffs. The Fans deserve that much. I also feel really good for Kyle Williams who is my favorite Bills player and has been a good pro for 12 years and is finally getting to go to his first playoff game.

g. We take the Pats return to the playoff for granted. In fact not getting a bye week would be considered a virtual failure of the season, Yet look at how so few of last season's teams have made it back again this season. The AFC has only 3 teams back (Pats Steelers and Chiefs) while the NFC has only 1 (Atlanta - just barely) So only a third of the playoff teams this season are repeat teams. Kind of puts a perspective on what the Pats have accomplished since 2006.

OK - almost 4am and I'm getting sober....and very sleepy. I have now done my duty and need some sleep. No going back to see what I f*cked up. So sorry about that. tough it out. ;)

HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone, and I hope its a great one for all of us.
 
KVN dressed, but I don't know if he played and if he did, how many snaps.

I saw him in I believe 2 snaps (could have been more). Getting that rust shaken off is a good thing. Even better would be to hear he is pronounced healthy after playing.

c. If I had to name one big concern this year it would be the defense's inability to create turnovers.

I'd have to vote for, and this may be part of what you are saying, the lack of LB playmaking. Getting KVN back and yesterday's JH being the JH we can expect(?) is HUGE!

Hey Josh can we put that reverse to Cooks back on the shelf for the rest of this year

Yes :)

Yeah, Dorsett had a bad drop,

I disagree in terming it a bad drop. Dorsett needs to catch that ball but IMHO it wasn't a routine catch

I thought the OL did OK

Given the Jets ineptitude in sacks recently, I expected better from the OL. I'd term their performance a bit below OK.


At first I was a little peeved when I saw the Jets taking Gronk completely out of the game plan simply by scheme. I even wondered if the Jets were given the rest of the league a "blueprint" of how to defend our biggest offensive weapon.

Put coverage underneath and over the top basically every time and it is going to slow down any receiver's numbers. That isn't a bad thing as one receiver taking 2 cover guys with him anywhere he goes on the field should be a way to leverage higher likelihood production elsewhere. That the Patriots couldn't better take advantage of that is concerning. However, it appeared to me the Patriots were calling some vanilla plays. The Patriots have to make teams pay for assigning two shadows to Gronk wherever he goes. One of those is hitting that Cooks deep route. They double Gronk and we make them pay a couple of time over the top with Cooks? The O will be playing downhill from there.
 
Not sure this was a tune up, this seemed more of a "place setter". Thought overall the O was a tad complacent, perhaps due to depletion of assets, unfortunately thought the game was boring... but a win is a win.

Listening to Romo ramble on about Brady's arm strength and tiredness, got me to thinking about how important this bye week actually is...

Two healthy running backs are telling, limiting Gronk(0 targets) and not focusing on Hollister or Allen, seem to have limited choices more than necessary. The O line did not play all that well against a team with no pass rush, giving up 2 sacks sucked.

OTOH the Jets 0-12 third down efficiency, is interesting along with limiting "Big Bad Bilal Powell" to 46 yards rushing on 13 attempts is good news for the D, along with limiting the vaunted Jets O to 247 yards ( remember the brouhaha about how this D allowed so many consecutive games with 300+ passing yards we was doomed).

At the end of the day a W is a W, no style points, but a tough gritty win in really crappy weather.. do not remember any significant injuries.
 
Happy New Year Ken!

I’m a long time Pats fan who doesn’t post much for 2 reasons.

First reason - I despise the owners. This recent RKK backlash is a joke to someone who’s family had great seasons tickets for almost 20 years at Foxboro and got pushed all the way upstairs right after the SB/new stadium. Not having Brady’s back? Yeah that’s ****y but we were fans before Brady and the Krafts screwed us on our seasons tix so we gave them up the second season at Gillette. It’s a business and we root for the laundry.

Second and more relevant to your contributions the nuances of the game are typically too nuanced ;) for a laymen like me so I usually lurk and try to learn. Your breakdowns are great (can you get a little more technical? There used to be a regular on Patriots Planet that killed it with diagrams. Could you do this?)

Either way thanks for your breakdowns every week.
 
Thank you Ken for answering the call of duty in your inebriated state.
I must say what your writing in that condition is better than a lot of guys who get paid to do it sober (supposedly). ;)
I agree with your point about how few play-off teams from last year are in this years shake up. We are so damn lucky to have this team to follow and the level of success they achieve.
Also agree with the amount of snaps for Dion Lewis, I know footballers play football, but every time he was hit I waited anxiously to see he was ok. He would have been a huge loss for the rest of the journey. He is one tough guy. The work load would not have been so high yesterday but for the injuries to the other R/B's obviously.

Happy New Year to you and indeed to all Patriot fans here.
GO PATS :D
 
Thanks, Ken, and Happy New Year to you.

I really liked the run blocking and the running by Lewis and Bolden, also the way that the D-Line stuffed the run. Otherwise, no new injuries and time to get the team polished for the play-offs. That's enough to keep me happy.
 
Pats offense has clearly been different since Burkhead and White went out. Brady loves isolating a RB against a LB and with that currently gone from the playbook they are having a much harder time generating those methodical 10 plus play drives that we've been so used to. Hopefully the two of them come back healthy and the diversity of the offense gets back to normal.

I actually thought Brady's arm strength looked good yesterday. The throw to Cooks when he slowed down was a rope as was the one he completed to Cooks near the sideline. The Dorsett throw was also right on the money. Brady has been very close to hitting Cooks for a long gainer multiple times in the past few weeks and has just missed (with a few PI's) by a step or 2 - if he can hit on one of them in the playoffs it could change the entire tenor of the game (like Branch vs Steelers AFCCG) and really open up the stuff underneath.

As Ken mentioned, multiple "no name" players have stepped up this year and it truly is a reflection of superior coaching. I feel that there are hundreds of players at the bottom of rosters across the league that are fully capable of being solid contributors if they are just put in the appropriate roles and coached up. BB seems to find a few gems every year to fill whatever holes the roster develops during the year.
 
New Years Eve has passed and the explosions are finally over. My neighborhood was clearly trying to reenact their own shock-n-awe invasion. Holy sh%t.

Only thing worse than my neighborhood on July 4th or New Years Eve is week 17 of the NFL….aka…..exhibition football. The good news for NE….their week 17 exhibitions ALWAYS mean the Patriots are in great playoff shape. We are so spoiled.

As always ….Great job PFK

I'll just add a couple of thoughts:

Regarding Harrison…….In one breath….watching him try to cover a pass catcher crossing 10 yards deep, I could of sworn I was watching the slowest defender in the NFL. But then I saw this massively muscled man complete a tackle that had no resemblance to any Patriot defender in recent memory. Harrison drove his body through the ball carrier…like a locomotive plowing through a Volkswagen Beetle. I might just buy my first Pats jersey if Harrison destroys a few more subspecies.

Regarding a game plan to stop the NE offense: The numbers show Brady's rapport with his WRs is nothing close to his effectiveness with the RBs + Gronk. If it was me, I'd make Brady beat my team with his WRs. Of course this means teams need the personnel to stop Gronk and few do. KC lost their guy to injury. Pitt didn't have an answer. Let the chess match begin.

Speaking of KC……the Chiefs righted their sinking ship once Reid was removed from play calling. I fully expect KC to return to Foxborough in two weeks and NE will be challenged once again defensively. Somehow the Pats defense has to tenderize Tyreek Hill a la Marshall Faulk 2001.

Great job yesterday Dion Lewis……that was fun to see

Looking beyond: Post 2017 may resemble post 2004……a successful 4 year campaign resulting in opportunities to good to be ignored .

Josh and Matt / Charlie and Romeo……will 2018 be another reset year similar to 2005?
 
Happy New Year Ken!

I’m a long time Pats fan who doesn’t post much for 2 reasons.

First reason - I despise the owners. This recent RKK backlash is a joke to someone who’s family had great seasons tickets for almost 20 years at Foxboro and got pushed all the way upstairs right after the SB/new stadium. Not having Brady’s back? Yeah that’s ***** but we were fans before Brady and the Krafts screwed us on our seasons tix so we gave them up the second season at Gillette. It’s a business and we root for the laundry.

Second and more relevant to your contributions the nuances of the game are typically too nuanced ;) for a laymen like me so I usually lurk and try to learn. Your breakdowns are great (can you get a little more technical? There used to be a regular on Patriots Planet that killed it with diagrams. Could you do this?)

Either way thanks for your breakdowns every week.

There are Rewatch threads after every game that are awesome for what you're looking for. Here are the last two for the Bills and Pitt games;

Bills @ Pats rewatch thread

Rewatch Pats @ Steelers
 
g. We take the Pats return to the playoff for granted. In fact not getting a bye week would be considered a virtual failure of the season, Yet look at how so few of last season's teams have made it back again this season. The AFC has only 3 teams back (Pats Steelers and Chiefs) while the NFC has only 1 (Atlanta - just barely) So only a third of the playoff teams this season are repeat teams. Kind of puts a perspective on what the Pats have accomplished since 2006.

This is what we should be celebrating this new year. There aren't words to describe this level of excellence.

Regarding the sack totals, the team still doesn't have an excellent pass rusher. The sacks come from persistence, discipline, and coverage. This speaks even more to the remarkable coaching job.
 
f. RB's - With White, Gillislee and Burkhead all out today, Dion Lewis got 28 carries, which were about 10 more than I would have liked, but who else was going to get them. Clearly he loved being out there and he did well again. He even showed some of that Levion Bell patience running for a couple of good gains. He's proven that he CAN carry a heavy running load, and teams will have to respect that going forward. BTW- nice job by Boldin in his 9 carries. Nice to know that your #5 RB doesn't suck

Cat like quickness
 
FYI - KVN played 12 snaps - mostly in relief of Roberts.

Roberts apparently popped his shoulder out at one point while driving a runner/receiver OB. He jumped back to his feet immediately after the play, but then, after a few steps, knelt on the field holding his left arm. Two trainers came out, looked him over, and then - right there and then, popped the shoulder back into place (it was plainly visible on camera).

KVN cam in for a few snaps, then Roberts played a bit more before Grigsby came on for 14 snaps.

I should have included the Roberts shoulder thing in my "plays of the game" in the post-game thread.

Anyway, Reiss snap counts and analysis are here (BSPN Warning):

 
Great job as usual. I do think people are a little hard on Eric Lee. He doesn't do everything right but he plays hard, does a lot of things right. With all the injuries we are lucky to have him. Hopefully a healthy KVN and an effective JH will reduce the number of snaps he gets but I still appreciate his effort.
I'm not on board yet with the secondary. Bryce Petty missed some wide open receivers with bad throws several times. I think Chung has been really good and consistent in coverage and the run game. Butler is still disappointing in coverage, still good against the run. Gilmore has had relatively tight coverage and has looked better against the run. Not convinced he plays to his contract yet but still the best CB in coverage. McCourty is still inconsistent to me. He is ok to me but a little overrated. With all that I agree that the front seven has improved particularly Guy and Brown. The pass rush has improved with Trey back and improvement from Wise. I'm encouraged. If Josh has a game plan to resolve the "muddle the middle" defense they can be awesome. I'm definitely encouraged, want tighter coverage in the secondary.
 
There are Rewatch threads after every game that are awesome for what you're looking for. Here are the last two for the Bills and Pitt games;

Bills @ Pats rewatch thread

Rewatch Pats @ Steelers
Thanks 60. These are nice but the ones I’m referring to literally had telestrater outlines and were a little easier for someone like me who doesn’t speak gap, blocking schemes , etc. I think the poster also put them here for a game or two but didn’t last. This was a while ago. Maybe before I registered this name.
 
Great post as usual Ken! I do disagree with you on one point. The only thing Bills fans deserve is jail time.
 
I like the point about so many undrafted free agents on the team. However, Deion Lewis was a fifth round pick of Philadelphia in 2011. Still, we signed him off the street.
 
I have a question @patfanken

The Patriots won the toss and chose to receive, instead of electing to get the kick-off at the start of the second half, which they normally do. Anyone have an idea why they made that decision?
 
I have a question @patfanken

The Patriots won the toss and chose to receive, instead of electing to get the kick-off at the start of the second half, which they normally do. Anyone have an idea why they made that decision?
Mike, the only thing I can think of off the top of my head is that the cold dictated that decision. I would assume that at the start of the game everyone would be at their warmest and feel the most comfortable. As the game wore on the discomfort will rise. Even coming out of a warm locker room at half time wouldn't mitigate the hour and a half they had spent on the field entirely.

Anyway it seemed to have worked. They moved right down the field on the opening drive to score, and by the time they got into their 2nd and third drives it looked like the cold got to them a bit.

That's the way I see it
 
Mike, the only thing I can think of off the top of my head is that the cold dictated that decision. I would assume that at the start of the game everyone would be at their warmest and feel the most comfortable. As the game wore on the discomfort will rise. Even coming out of a warm locker room at half time wouldn't mitigate the hour and a half they had spent on the field entirely.

Anyway it seemed to have worked. They moved right down the field on the opening drive to score, and by the time they got into their 2nd and third drives it looked like the cold got to them a bit.

That's the way I see it

Yes, I thought it must have to do with the cold, but I couldn't quite think why. Though they do like the score-at-the-end-of-the-first-half-score-at-the-start-of-the-second model. And they DID score at the end of the first half. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.

I'm sure BB will explain it all in detail to Mike Reiss at a press conference when he asks. :D
 
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