Idle thoughts - the broken record edition

[patfanken]

Since its going to be 20 days before we play a meaningful game, here are some observations, pet peeves, rants, and questions before we play this year's version of pre-season game #3 in week 17.

1. Every week I see posters calling for us to add that "deep threat" to our receiving corps, as if suddenly the clouds would disappear, cancer will be cured, and some Iman somewhere would declare to all Muslims that the 21st century doesn't suck, if ONLY we could find our own version of Julio Jones.

I have long opined that year after year of unbroken history that proven CONCLUSIVELY that having an elite WR is NOT the answer to winning football. And while it certainly is a very nice luxury, it definitely ISN'T a requirement. Unfortunately judging from the amount of WR threads, and demands and pleas from so many to add this so call "critical necessity", I'm clearly not making much headway in my efforts. .

So let me come at it another way. Let me ask those people a question. Why do we need this "missing piece" when there hasn't been a single game all season where, with the talent at hand, we HAVEN'T had a WR open deep on multiple occasions.

Does it really make sense to invest major cap space, or valuable high end draft capital to add an asset with a skill set our QB can't match? Let's face it, the guy who is probably the greatest QB of all time, and one of the more accurate QB's in NFL history, DOESN'T throw an accurate deep ball.

At least once every game we are teased by a Brady long ball that will fall JUST out of reach of an open WR deep down the field. I don't know what the reason is. Its not arm strength. He's got more than enough. Its NOT that we don't have receivers who can get open. That's just not true. We see one open at least a couple of times a game.

So if I can't make a historical case by pointing out that WR's have less impact on winning than you think, maybe I can make the case that having that "deep threat" WR might be a wasted asset, since our QB might have a problem taking advantage of one.

2. Still on the WR topic. CONTINUITY - We all recognize that continuity is a key element in the long term success of the Pats. Continuity in the HC and staff. Continuity with the QB. Continuity in the systems and language. All have played a big part in the unprecedented success the Pats have had over the last 14 years.

To that end, why not have some CONTINUITY in our WR corps. Looking toward next season, the Pats have the RARE opportunity to bring back almost everybody from this year's WR group. To have Brady continue to develop chemistry with these players, to have many of the young WR's continue to develop their skills with the same QB, system, and staff could produce high benefits. Brady has had the luxury of have a somewhat stable WR corp only twice in his career. The 3 year period with Givens and Branch, 2002-2005, and the 2007-09 period with Welker and Moss..

Wouldn't it be nice if he had the opportunity to develop that next level connection by have the same guys to throw to for the 2-4 years. Maybe we'd see an improvement in his long passing game, if he didn't have to keep throwing to new guys every year or 2.

3. With the Rex Ryan era about to close, I started to think about this enigmatic presence that is about to leave. As a former coach, its hard not to admire his ability to get his players to play hard so consistently. Its one of the most important elements any leader can have. One the other hand, its equally impossible NOT to indict him and his staff. for his almost complete failure to develop and improve the talent he has been given over time.

Think about it. How many of his draft choices, and FA's, especially the 2nd and 3rd say choices, have flourished and become something more than their physical talents. Not that many. There haven't been many Ninko's, Arrington's, CJones', Connolly's and Wendell's pulled of the league's scrap heaps and developed over time into productive players.

If one truly wanted to define a difference between BB and Rex, it wouldn't be the opposite personalities and media styles, it would be that one guy gets more from less by better developing their skills than the other....by far. BB has been willing to invest time and effort into a lot of guys over the years, and wait a few years to get his pay off. Steven Neal is just one of several OLmen who fit that mold.

The fact is that what you initially see in a player is NOT what you necessarily get. (good and bad). Some players simply take time, patience, good coaching and the OPPORTUNITY to shine. Julian Edelman was an overnight success, 4 years in the making, and he is just one of many. It's the reason why BB can take a team with 19 players who started their NFL careers as UDFA's to the superbowl, and Rex Ryan could never.

4. Which brings me back to the WR's . Time and patience is why I don't dismiss Aaron Dobson out of hand and call for more new WR blood. People forget that DESPITE his disappointing lost season this year, Aaron Dobson still has more production in his first 2 seasons in a lot fewer games than Golden Tate did with Seattle. Tate didn't have a truly productive season until his FOURTH season in the league. Sometimes it just takes some time to develop

Having some patience with Dobson Tyms, and to a lesser degree with Boyce, is just another reason not to waste cap and draft capital on the WR position.

5. The play 'em or rest 'em debate is a tough one. Lots of good points on both sides. But here is the one that tips it for me to the side of playing 'em. Football more than any other team sport, relies on having great chemistry in the locker room. "all for one" truly means more than a cliche, and does affect the outcomes of games. For that reason, I'd find it hard to justify to my TEAM, that I'm going to protect "these guys", but the rest of you are expendable. And while in reality everyone on that team knows that Brady and Gronk ARE more important that the rest of them, actually treating them differently WOULD affect that delicate and fragile dynamic that constitutes having a great locker room or not. It might not be logical, but if you've ever experienced it, you know its a fact..

That's just one of the reason's why I expect the starters to all play a full half or more. The only possible exception to that might be Brady, IF and only if, he has a good first 3 series. Then he MIGHT just play the first quarter. And that would be more to see what you have in JG, than getting Brady work.

If you don't play them tomorrow, it will mean, when they finally hit the field, wouldn't have played a live snap in 20 days. That my friends is a recipe for a divisional round upset

6. I'm hoping against hope that the debacle also known as the NFCS might make the owners think twice about expanding the playoffs next season. Its going to be a travesty when an 11 or 12 win team is forced to play an away game with a 7 win team.

One of the big reasons why the NFL is so compelling, is that EVERY game matters so much,and how limited playoff spots are. Adding 2 more wildcard teams waters down the product and makes it more likely we will see "bad" teams playing in the league's finest showcase. Unfortunately the NFL has shown an uncanny ability to do the wrong thing over the last few years, so I'm not expecting on good outcome on this issue either.

7. A while back I ranted about Jeff Fisher and what a scumbag he was by taunting a down and out Washington team by naming all the picks they got for RGIII captains for their game. It was an unnecessary, highly unprofessional act that we've come to expect from that vastly over rated bully of a HC. Its no coincidence that his teams are always dirty and chippy. This was especially irritating, since is OWN team hasn't had a winning team for the 3 season's he's been there, DESPITE a boat load of individual talent and all those draft picks.

Then 2 things happened this week that were just SO...... perfect on this topic. First it was Fisher who complained about another team's player playing too rough. Now that the definition of irony right there. THEN there was this. Isn't it surprising that while so many HC's are constantly being talked about being on the "hot seat" at the end of the season, NO ONE ever mention Jeff Fisher. Yet in NINETEEN years as a HC, Jeff Fisher has had exactly 6 teams that were better than .500. That's right just SIX In fact his last winning season was back in 2008. Kind of makes you wonder whose pictures he must have have in the locked draw that allows HIM to still be an NFL head coach. What a FRAUD!

OK, I've rambled long enough. Just my attempt to lengthen everyone's attention span.

 

[nabwong]

Imam.

Iman is married to David Bowie.

 

[Danger Zone]

Im torn about this subject.

Yes I think Brady needs a viable deep threat, but all the wannabe GMs aside, how would we have fit Johnson or Fitzgerald under the cap this year? Arent we now a couple million over?

But... several weeks ago I was watching the highlights of a game and saw a receiver suddenly adjust his angle pretty sharpy and make a deepball catch in stride. My first thought was to be jealous.

I do think many of Brady's deep passes would have actually been caught by a receiver with the right skill set and physical attributes.

I loove Edelman to pieces, but he doesnt have the deepball skill set to go up over the top of a trailing defender.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

How are the pats not going to play a meaningful game for another 20 days? Don't the divisionals start 14 days from now?

 

[Mike the Brit]

I am so much in agreement with what you say about "play 'em or rest 'em".

 

[bigballas]

How are the pats not going to play a meaningful game for another 20 days? Don't the divisionals start 14 days from now?

And their last game was 6 days ago

 

[Gwedd]

I completely agree with your assessment of New England's wide receiver needs. Let 'em play and develop them to the best of their potential. Only go looking around for another WR if you can see that someone is definitely not going to work out, or you can get someone better for a similar pay scale, or if injuries demand you reload to keep enough to hand.

Regarding Coach Belichick versus Coach Ryan, the difference, to my mind, is this: Coach Belichick knows how to take 10 fingers and make two powerful fists. Coach Ryan knows how to take 10 fingers and poke someone in the eye with one of them.

Thanks again for another nice post, Ken. I always look forward to reading your work. I hope that you and yours have a wonderful and prosperous New Year.

 

[Sicilian]

I think the major disconnect on the deep threat really comes down to how much capital people are willing to spend on it. No one would disagree that a deep threat WR would be a nice piece to add (a luxury, as you say). Some would have us spend a high draft pick or break the bank in free agency to get one, and others (myself included), feel those assets could go to better use on the OL, DL, and possibly S.

One thing I will say in defense of Brady, is that he threw a perfectly good deep ball when he had Randy Moss. I believe the reason for that being he trusted Randy to come down with it if it was a contestable ball. With his current receivers, he lacks the trust (possibly justifiably so) that they will win those jump balls, so when he throws deep he errs on the side of the overthrow. He'd rather miss deep and have it go incomplete, than miss short and have it picked. He doesn't have Rodgers' deep ball accuracy (which is unreal), so he unfortunately has to make that choice.

Give him another Moss, he probably hits those passes. Of course, finding another Moss might be as hard as finding the next Brady.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Ken, your point #1 has convinced me we should trade for Peyton Manning who despite his fading arm still throws dead on deep balls

 

[CaffeineMan]

I think the reason for Brady's success on deep passes with Moss was that Moss could do what Danger Zone mentioned: adjust to the deep ball in flight. Sometimes it was really subtle, but I thought he had to adjust a lot. This is basically to agree with Ken. Brady's deep accuracy has never been good and any deep threat would need to have an adjustment ability that is pretty rare.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Could not agree more. For the deep ball to work Tom is not Peyton accurate & needs a guy with the instincts and athleticism to go up and GET the ball. There aren't many guys who can; 2007 Moss was one.
We're gonna hafta find ways to win a ring without that guy.

 

[New England Pride]

Let's just get another Moss. I have 5 of them in my closet right now, I don't mind sparing one.

 

[hwc]

1. Every week I see posters calling for us to add that "deep threat" to our receiving corps, as if suddenly the clouds would disappear, cancer will be cured, and some Iman somewhere would declare to all Muslims that the 21st century doesn't suck, if ONLY we could find our own version of Julio Jones.

No. No. No. You've got it all wrong!

Don't ya know... the Pats will never be worth a damn until they have Julio Jones AND Dwight Freeney!

That's what we need. A marquee wide receiver AND a marquee pass rush specialist.

 

[Gwedd]

Well, there's a really good one coming up in the draft, one who plays in a system very similar to new England's already. Having said that, there's not a very good chance that the Patriots could be in a position to draft Amari Cooper. I've watched him play for 3 years now, and he's gotten better with each game. He's consistent, and can & will go and get a ball if it comes close to him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amari_Cooper

 

[SHOWTIME15]

And their last game was 6 days ago

Oh, i thought he was talking about starting from today.

 

[luuked]

So let me come at it another way. Let me ask those people a question. Why do we need this "missing piece" when there hasn't been a single game all season where, with the talent at hand, we HAVEN'T had a WR open deep on multiple occasions.

Does it really make sense to invest major cap space, or valuable high end draft capital to add an asset with a skill set our QB can't match? Let's face it, the guy who is probably the greatest QB of all time, and one of the more accurate QB's in NFL history, DOESN'T throw an accurate deep ball.

At least once every game we are teased by a Brady long ball that will fall JUST out of reach of an open WR deep down the field. I don't know what the reason is. Its not arm strength. He's got more than enough. Its NOT that we don't have receivers who can get open. That's just not true. We see one open at least a couple of times a game.

As many have already mentioned in the thread I think that the key with this deep receiver debate is that the better the player the bigger the margin of error. Look at Julio Jones, DT or even Desean Jackson, they are able to adjust so much better to the trajectory of deep throws than any of the players that we have.

Dobson might be able to grow into such a player. Given enough patience from the staff and enough will power from him. But to hit LaFell or Edelman deep the throw has to be pretty much perfect. To make it a homerun the throw not only needs to be perfect but also has to be catchable in stride.

 

[CaffeineMan]

Could not agree more. For the deep ball to work Tom is not Peyton accurate & needs a guy with the instincts and athleticism to go up and GET the ball. There aren't many guys who can; 2007 Moss was one.
We're gonna hafta find ways to win a ring without that guy.

Definitely agree with the jump ball skills. However, even more than jump ball skills, I think Brady needs the other skills Moss brought to the table. Firstly, the ability to adjust his speed when running, after he had coverage beaten deep. Brady looked like he never overthrew or underthrew Moss because Moss ran exactly as fast as he had to. His adjustments were so smooth that you couldn't tell he was adjusting. I see other fast receivers that can beat coverage, but can't adjust like that. If the QB underthrows them, they have to visibly slow down, or even stop, making it obvious to the DB's what is happening.

Secondly, when he didn't have his man completely beaten, or Brady severely underthrew the ball, he would keep his body between the defender and the ball and subtly box out such that he didn't always need to go get a jump ball. The catch looked like a normal catch in a situation where the defender couldn't quite get there in time. But really, the defender was there in time, but Moss had him out maneuvered. The guy just had unbelievable instincts and body control. I don't think there was a single receiver out there that could have brought out the best in Brady the way Moss did.

 

[patfanken]

A couple of points

1. It might be anecdotal, but it seems to me that although Brady continues his problematic success on deep balls, he IS pushing the ball deeper down field this year more. And this is by design. I first noticed it in TC, and it has continued throughout the year. Am I the only one who see a lot less of the so called "Welker routes" this season. Just a thought.

2. I agree with those who believe part of Brady's problem with the deep ball is his fear of picks. I think that's why most of his deep misses tend to be over throws. The needing a WR who better adjusts to the ball theorists have a point as well. All the more reason to keep this WR group intact and have them develop these skills within the same system and with the same QB

3. Another question I feel the need to ask is, "to what end?:" How many more points or wins is this so called elite WR going to add. We already have the highest scoring offense in the league and this with a very young receiver group with a lot of upside. If we can leave well enough alone, it will only get better.

 

[Observer]

We had this problem completely taken care of with a kickass twin TE lineup right up until that idiot Hernandez decided to go on a murder spree. I hate that bastard

 

[ausbacker]

I admit, I would like a deep run threat but it appears more important to get WRs who can create separation and get open quickly. That seems to maximise the opportunity to play with Tom Brady and fits in with the Patriots system.

For mine, continuing to invest in an Offensive Line upgrade is far more important than a downfield WR threat. Hell, we now have a scrambling QB with burners...