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I Don't Think Asante is Going to Come Back...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mavfan2390, Jan 2, 2007.

  1. mavfan2390

    mavfan2390 Rookie

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    Because his stock is seriously high right now, and depending on how he does in the playoffs chances are he will get more then Brian Williams did this past year...Here's an article talking about it....


    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AqbW4c9WaO_Ewi6phQrwlsVDubYF?slug=ys-davisonsamuel010207&prov=yhoo&type=lgns


  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Fine, seriously high stock equals seriously high trade value after we Franchise him.
  3. mavfan2390

    mavfan2390 Rookie

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    Ahh that's right I forgot about the franchise tag....any chance we franchise and KEEP him?
  4. STFarmy

    STFarmy Rookie

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    I don't either, and I've said so since the beginning of the season. He wants moolah; he's been playing for the money all season. He almost always goes for the int (sometimes resulting in a big play for the opposing team) and goes for the big "jacked up" hit a lot of times. Those two things indicate that he's trying to make the highlight reels, which will in turn increase his stock. I don't blame him for it, it is a business and if he wants the money and has the skills to get it, bravo. I just don't think that he will be here next year because of these reasons.
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I can see them franchising him, but we need to know what the franchise tag number will be. CB over the last few years has fluctuated a bit. When Woodson was franchised a few years ago, it was close to $10 million and last year it was under $7 million. It all depends what the average of the top five CBs is this year. There are a few big contract guys like Antoine Winfield, Fred Smoot, and others who are getting to the meat of their contracts.
  6. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    I love the guy, but I think he has priced himself out - priority one, long term has to be keeping this D-Line together until the end of time.

    What is the franchise $ for a CB?
  7. notex

    notex Rookie

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    i think they bring him back i just havea feeling...
  8. PatrioticDynasty

    PatrioticDynasty Rookie

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    I doubt that if we franchise him he would stay after that, that kind of thing can really piss a player off...look at what happened with Adam...
  9. mavfan2390

    mavfan2390 Rookie

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    Adam stayed for one year under the tag, and I doubt Asante would demand that we not use the tag.
  10. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    They franchised him the first few times to be sure they could work out a contract..that wasn't done..it wasn't a BIG deal at all..he was still the highest paid kicker..the Patriots could have done it afain..and did not.. NOT sure what will happen with Samuel..he MAY be priced out given what CBs are worth..but it depends..
  11. PatrioticDynasty

    PatrioticDynasty Rookie

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    That's true Pats726, at the first Franchising, but I'm pretty sure when they came at an impasse the second time and had to franchise him he wasn't very happy. I could be wrong but did he not say something to that point in an interview after he left the Pats?

    Anyway, I really hope Asante stays, but in reality he will look to hit the big payday...seems that is the way it's going to be from hear out...sign players to 4 year deals cheap, then when they get good they take off for the big check...The collective bargaining agreement killed that white horse...
  12. betterthanthealternative

    betterthanthealternative Rookie

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    If this is true in November:

    "Samuel's agent, Alonzo Shavers, told The Boston Globe in late November that both sides decided to halt extension negotiations to focus on the remainder of the season. The Globe reported that Samuel was seeking bonuses in the $10 million range, while the Patriots were offering approximately $7.5 million."

    then 2.5M won't be hard to find middle ground on in the Spring. But what happens in the playoffs will matter...if he plays a large role in shutting down a couple of offenses, the number may go up.
  13. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If they are offering him a $7.5M signing bonus then they are looking at him as something south of a $4M per year player (remember they were offering Branch $8M on a deal that would have averaged just about $5M per including the remaining rookie year of his expiring deal). They offered an aging pro bowler who used to pick big name QB's $4.5M per for 2 years coming off his 10 INT 2005 season. One reason CB's pile up numbers like that is when they are getting thrown at a lot, and there is a reason for that too and often it's that they are suspect or the guy opposite them is perceived as the better player. And his picks came in bunches against some pretty bad QB's. If he wants a $10M signing bonus then he is looking to be in the $5-6M range.

    Hawk was on WEEI this AM and they asked him straight out if Asante is a top corner. He danced around it diplomatically saying he has certainly improved and has been a player this year who has taken advantage of the opportunities that were presented to him. Said he is confident and he has the capacity to forget the mistakes move on in the game which you do have to be able to do play agressively. The sense I got is while they think he is good, they don't think he's the next coming of Ty Law. I think they think he is a good system CB in the Patriot system. And that is the rub - I'm sure they all want him to stay and think he deserves to see some coin, but they all feel they deserve to see some coin too and if Belioli were to go all out on a player of Asante's talent, I think there would be locker room repercussions or rumblings equal to if they don't.

    If they and perhaps his teamates can convince him to take the long view and agree to some incentivization in his deal they might strike a balance. But if he hears whispers via his agent that he can get that double digit SB without strings, and maybe more, he's gone.
  14. carolinatony

    carolinatony Rookie

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    Either we franchised him or he's gone. We all know some team will overpay for him. That's just the way it is.
  15. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    I fail to understand some of you fans. When the club doesn't have cap room long term, it conserves money and cap room. Why? SO IT CAN USE IT, when it does have the cap under control. Look at the Colvin signing, and the Law negotiations.

    Belichick can pay Graham, Samuels and TBC, a million dollars a year MORE per season each, than the franchise price for each player, and still have mega cap room.

    Why won't they remain here?

    Asante and Grahambo in particular is a real producer, and BB pays for genuine production. Ask Jarvis Green.

    Asante Samuel is becoming a very good CB and a play maker, at a position that BB covets and respects.

    TBC has had the investment of four years of training in converting to OLB from college rush end. He had the pass rush; his sack totals are fine. he has controlled the edge. The anti-run statistics are fine. He hasn't yet come around on pass defense but as I recall Willie didn't do much there either.
  16. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    It's not just about money, it's about competition for their services.

    The problem is that with the exception of exercising the franchise tag, we now have no more rights to those players than any other team.

    With 31 other teams potentially bidding, the a priori probability of retaining any one of them is 1/32. That's only a 10% a priori probability of retaining even one of the three. The odds are improved because not every team is in the market for every player, but every team will consider making an offer to every free agent that can improve their team.

    The "hometown discount" can certainly be a factor, as for many players there's value in avoiding the disruption of moving, preserving their relationships with teammates and/or coaches, and staying with a winning franchise. Every free agent ends up having to quantify those effects; they're generally positive but sometimes negative.

    There's the "contract year" effect, with players not as likely to risk killing themselves once they've finally scored a big contract, but that's team neutral: it's a risk every team takes with free agents.

    The only other countervailing factor is that other teams should bid less for the services of our good free agents than the Patriot's do, because it's difficult to separate their performance from the Patriot's system. This is a significant factor, as most free agent's performance regresses to the NFL mean when they change teams. There are lots of free agent disappointments.

    Another variant of this observation is that the Patriot's should consider overpaying market value to retain players because of the system risk that their departure will destabilize the team. Branch and Givens leaving seems to have had more negative impact than than the market value of the players would indicate.

    But this is not a statistical exercise, the Patriots and all other teams evaluate prospective players by breaking down film and attempting to isolate out individual contribution by factoring out team system contribution. There will always be teams that value our players as much or more than we do.

    Finally, some teams overpay their free agents for public relation reasons, i.e. to avoid provoking media problems and angering their fan base. For an insecure GM/Coach or ownership, this can be a significant factor. However, I think Belichick couldn't care less about this effect.

    So we'll be lucky to sign even one of these guys. They're not ours anymore. Our best chance is probably Graham, because he already got decent money with his 1st round contract, has had chronic injury problems, and isn't flashy. The increase he is offered may not be worth moving for, provided he likes it here. TBC may find the magnitude of his offers disappointing, but someone is going to offer him a huge increase over his 7th round deal. And Samuel has to be salivating at the huge pay day he's going to get from someone.

    Let's also not forget Junior Seau, who has indicated he will play again next year somewhere. He was really coming on in our system. But free agent calculus applies to him as well.

    I'm not optimistic about retaining these guys. We'll be doing well to keep one; two would be great.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2007
  17. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Great post Mo.

    I will add my 2cents. I am sick and tired of watching him jump the ball for the INT instead of playing the man, especially on third down! He has been beat mutliple times because he is peeking in the back field looking for the pick and ends up giving up a big play, which he did Sunday. He keeps missing tackles or even contact that would allow his teammates time to come up and make a play because he wants to make the highlight reel. I appreciate his picks but his gambling is getting old and honestly I wouldn't shed to many tears if he is gone next year.

    I know a lot of people on this board are big Asante supporters but there is more to playing CB than INT's.
  18. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I don't see the Pats franchising Asante. Not when the Franchise number is going to be over 7.5 million.

    I think that if the Pats offered him a contract in the range of Brian Williams (6yrs/$32 million with an 8.5 million bonus) that Asante would take it.
  19. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The franchise number was 7.225 million last year. Not under 7 as you report.
  20. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think they would. They know he's going to want a long term deal and can almost certainly find someone who'll give it to him. Even if we got a #3 this year that's better than the comp pick we'd get for just losing him (probably a #4 or #5 in 2007) and a #3 is probably low considering other trades of Franchised players in the past.

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