How many Rookies can we expect to make the Team?

[DaBruinz]

Simple, based on a statistical analysis and extensive research it comes down to 50%. Half the draft picks will make team (make the team includes practice squad).

A really good draft would include one first year starter and two future starters along with 2-3 JAGs.

Looking at the roster there are not a lot of spots a rookie could fill (based on current draft slots). The Pats look to get younger (cheaper), it doesn't appear that they will be very active in the veteran FA market.

3rd WR
RB - a 1st or 2nd round pick good nudge out Maroneyand/or Morris
FB - outside chance that a young FB could be the starter
CB - the spot opposite Hobbs is wide open, a 1st round
Punter
Long snapper - another real long shot
ILB - two years in a row? crazy, unlikely but maybe

Why would a 1st or 2nd round pick nudge out Maroney and/or Morris and not BJGE? That makes no sense at all. Especially considering the Pats carried 4 RBs all last season.

There will probably be at least one rookie safety making the team.

The others are all potentials.

 

[DaBruinz]

Last year we had Mayo, Crable, Guyton, Redd, Wheatley, Wilhite, Slater and O'Connell all make the team, as far as I can recall. Obviously not all saw significant playing time. With a likely 5-6 picks in the top 100 of a very deep draft, I think we can expect somewhat similar results this year.

Another way to look at it is that we typically average about a 20% turnover on our roster, or about 12-13 players a year. Last year in addition to the 8 rookies we added RB Lamont Jordon, CB Deltha O'Neal, and OT Mark LeVoir, plus a few players at the back end of the roster. I expect a similar turnover this year.

Redd didn't make the team out of training camp. He was cut and placed on the practice squad.

 

[billdog3484]

If we do trade Cassel, there is a possibility we obtain a 1st rounder for him in '010. I can see this scenario unfolding

(1) we have our own 2010 first round pick
(2) we obtain a 1st round pick from the team we trade Cassel to in 2010
(3) we trade one of our '09 2nd round draft picks for an '010 first round pick

or we keep cassel, do not add any big free agents and use all of our current 09 picks this year

next year, if brady is healthy, we trade Cassel for a 2nd round pick at worst

either way, i think we are in great shape

 

[AzPatsFan]

If we do trade Cassel, there is a possibility we obtain a 1st rounder for him in '010. I can see this scenario unfolding

(1) we have our own 2010 first round pick
(2) we obtain a 1st round pick from the team we trade Cassel to in 2010
(3) we trade one of our '09 2nd round draft picks for an '010 first round pick

or we keep cassel, do not add any big free agents and use all of our current 09 picks this year

next year, if brady is healthy, we trade Cassel for a 2nd round pick at worst

either way, i think we are in great shape

That highlight is my strategy and what I suspect Belichick is doing. He would not paint himself into a corner from having two good QBs, to a situation where he has none. That could happen if he trades Cassel and then Brady has health problems.

 

[mayoclinic]

Redd didn't make the team out of training camp. He was cut and placed on the practice squad.

I know that. My list was not how many immediately made the team right out of TC, but included those who eventually made the team and saw playing time.

 

[Clonamery]

That could happen if he trades Cassel and then Brady has health problems.

Yeah, well, you could lose any number of QB's to injury at any given time in any given season, (see Cleveland Browns 2008).

 

[BradyManny]

So? Adalius was listed as a reserve by Miguel. Yes, I listed him as a "maybe," he'll be 32 at the start of the season and is coming back from a broken arm that finally put him on IR because he wasn't healing as fast as was hoped. Now that may be nothing, but it rates a caution flag. I expect him back and starting, that's not to say he's guaranteed to be the stud of seasons past or couldn't be upgraded by another 6th round wonder BB pulls out of his hat.

AD better be back and be in form. The defense - and this is no knock on Woods who played well in his stead - was much less effective without him. I know its a cumulative effect of all the other injuries and the loss of AD's versatility, but just looking at the numbers w/ and w/o AD, its astounding.

I thought he was playing at a Pro Bowl level before the injury last season. If they had a stat for sacks per pass rush, he'd have to be up there w OLBs, b/c he spent the first few games or so dropping in coverage the vast majority of the time, and then from there still had some coverage responsibilities probably half the passing attempts.

I'd call AD the 3rd best player on the defense (Wilfork, Sey) but the 2nd most important (Wilfork).

 

[mgteich]

To my mind, there are more than 17 potential upgrades. I count 23 roster spots plus 8 Pracice Squad spots for a total of 31.

I start with the players that are very likely "safe" for various reasons. For example, Smith is insurance against our losing other DE's and he is inexpensive.

There are posters who think that even some of these aren't safe, players like Bruschi. That would increase the number from 23. I think that it is unrealistic to make the list too large.

Of course, the open rosters spot don't have to be filled with the present roster players or rookies. We will sign some free agents, certainly at least a couple of re-signs.

OFFENSE (14)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB (3) Maroney, Faulk, Morris
WR (2) Moss, Welker
TE (2) Watson, Thomas
OT (2) Light, Kaczur
OG/C (3) Mankins, Koppen, Neal

DEFENSE (15)
DL (5) Wilfork, Seymour,Warren, Green, Smith
LB (6) Thomas, Vrabel, Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Crable
DB (4) Hobbs, Wheatley, Wilhite, Meriweather

SPECIALISTS (1)
K (1) Gostkowski

Roster
Tyson DeVree - UDFA
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - UDFA
Gary Guyton - UDFA
Jerod Mayo - Day One
Kevin O'Connell - Mid-round
Vince Redd - UDFA
Matthew Slater - Mid-round
Jonathan Wilhite - Mid-round

Injured Reserve
Shawn Crable - Mid-round
Bo Ruud - Late round
Terrence Wheatley - Day One

Practice Squad
Titus Adams - UDFA
Angelo Craig - UDFA signed as a street FA
Mark Dillard - UDFA
Darrell Robertson - UDFA signed as a street FA
Ryan Wendell - UDFA

So, that's:
-- 9 UDFA
-- 2 Day One
-- 4 Mid-round
-- 1 Late round
-- 16 Total, to end the season.

From the legendary Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2009 Patriots Roster Page comes his current roster listing which I'm using to consider where a draft pick might prove an upgrade...

Projected 2009 Starting Offense Based on Signed/Tendered Players - Miguel is presuming the Pats will tender offers to all of their ERFAs.

LT Matt Light - Top 10
LG Logan Mankins - no
C Dan Koppen - Day One
QB Tom Brady - no
RG Stephen Neal - no
RT Nick Kaczur - Top 10
TE Ben Watson - no
TE Dave Thomas - no
WR Wes Welker - no
RB Sammy Morris - Yep, but not a priority
WR Randy Moss - no

Projected 2008 Starting Defense Based on Signed/Tendered Players

RDE Richard Seymour - no
DT Vince Wilfork - no
LDE Ty Warren - no
LB Jerod Mayo - no
LB Tedy Bruschi - yes
LB Gary Guyton - yes
LB Mike Vrabel - no
CB Terrence Wheatley - Day One
CB Ellis Hobbs, III - Day One
CB Jonathan Wilhite - Day One
S Brandon Meriweather - no

Offensive Reserves:

C Dan Connolly - Yes
C Ryan Wendell - yes
G Billy Yates - yes
OT Mark LeVoir - Day One
RT Ryan O'Callaghan - yes
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - yes
RB Kevin Faulk - no
RB Laurence Maroney - Day One
QB Matt Cassell - no
QB Matt Gutierrez - no
QB Kevin O'Connell - no
TE Tyson Devree - maybe
WR Sam Aiken - yes
WR Matt Slater - yes
WR Kelley Washington - yes
K Stephen Gostkowski - no

Defensive Reserves:

DE Jarvis Green - no
DT Titus Adams - yes
DT Le Kevin Smith - no
CB Mike Richardson - Day One
CB Antwain Spann - yes
LB Shawn Crable - Day One
LB Angelo Craig - yes
LB Vince Redd - maybe
LB Darrell Robertson - yes
LB Bo Ruud - yes
LB Adalius Thomas - maybe
P Tom Malone - yes

I see 17 "yes" they can be upgraded in this draft players here. There are 3 more roster spots open (20), plus the Practice Squad (28), and the risk of a "no" or "maybe" player going on IR. 28+ slots where a draft pick could prove competitive. NE is projected to have 10-11 picks, plus a possible Matt Cassel lottery. Even if BB did not bundle picks together to move up for a desired player (which I believe he will at some point), there could be another 16 draftees/UDFAs who make a place for themselves in NE from this draft, though half of that would be about right I'd think.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

AD better be back and be in form. The defense - and this is no knock on Woods who played well in his stead - was much less effective without him. I know its a cumulative effect of all the other injuries and the loss of AD's versatility, but just looking at the numbers w/ and w/o AD, its astounding.

I thought he was playing at a Pro Bowl level before the injury last season. If they had a stat for sacks per pass rush, he'd have to be up there w OLBs, b/c he spent the first few games or so dropping in coverage the vast majority of the time, and then from there still had some coverage responsibilities probably half the passing attempts.

I'd call AD the 3rd best player on the defense (Wilfork, Sey) but the 2nd most important (Wilfork).

What was Vrabel like in 2007 and why is he on so many "hit" lists with fans this season? I expect Adalius back, expect he will start, but at 32, coming back from IR, he's not a sure thing until he's in camp lighting people up.

 

[cstjohn17]

Why would a 1st or 2nd round pick nudge out Maroney and/or Morris and not BJGE? That makes no sense at all. Especially considering the Pats carried 4 RBs all last season.

There will probably be at least one rookie safety making the team.

The others are all potentials.

Sorry, I meant to qualify the list of open starting positions, potentially open positions a rookie could fill. Rookies can take over any of the depth spots on the roster. My list focused on starting slots that could be grapped by a rookie.

BOX does a nice job breaking down the roster competition.

 

[cstjohn17]

I see 17 "yes" they can be upgraded in this draft players here. There are 3 more roster spots open (20), plus the Practice Squad (28), and the risk of a "no" or "maybe" player going on IR. 28+ slots where a draft pick could prove competitive. NE is projected to have 10-11 picks, plus a possible Matt Cassel lottery. Even if BB did not bundle picks together to move up for a desired player (which I believe he will at some point), there could be another 16 draftees/UDFAs who make a place for themselves in NE from this draft, though half of that would be about right I'd think.

Nice breakdown

Yep, 50%, right in line with my analysis <-- read wild ass guess

Some of the Yes men may keep there jobs and some will be filled by budget (JAG) veterans.

SS is not listed by Miguel as a starting position. I guess that is easier than listing Spann or Ventrone as a starter.

In my fantasy world of GM for a day I would rather forfeit the potential Cassel draft picks and sign an impact defensive player (Suggs, Asomugha). That is why I would be GM for a day, the next day I would be fired.

These exercises most also add 10-15 camp fodders...

 

[BradyManny]

What was Vrabel like in 2007 and why is he on so many "hit" lists with fans this season? I expect Adalius back, expect he will start, but at 32, coming back from IR, he's not a sure thing until he's in camp lighting people up.

Maybe, but broken arms heal - shoulder injuries like Vrabel's linger and are more complicated. Besides, as you're probably aware, Vrabel's 07 stats were a little inflated - his 08 stats weren't as far from his career norm than the Vrabel-haters suggest.

 

[mgteich]

Why are players who have little or no chance of making the team relevant to this analysis?

Nice breakdown
These exercises most also add 10-15 camp fodders...

 

[cstjohn17]

Why are players who have little or no chance of making the team relevant to this analysis?

Damn good question, can't remember. Maybe it is because some of the draft picks will end up being nothing more than camp bodies, even if they are our 'late round gems'.

 

[mgteich]

You are right. The 5th, 6th and 7th round shouldn't yield more than a couple of players for the 53, although there might be a practice player or two. Belichick is as likely to find UDFA's that will make the team. Five rookies from Rounds 1-4 plus two after the 4th seems about right. Even that seems a lot given how many youngters we've brought back from last year's IR and Practice Squad.

Damn good question, can't remember. Maybe it is because some of the draft picks will end up being nothing more than camp bodies, even if they are our 'late round gems'.