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How many Rookies can we expect to make the Team?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Wretch, Feb 9, 2009.

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  1. Wretch

    Wretch On the Game Day Roster

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    We are all salivating over the chance to trade Cassell and get extra picks, and I expect a trade to happen. So I ask this, how many rookies can we expect to make the team?
    From Mig's the Pats have 50 players signed through next year and probably 10 of those are on the bubble. There will be a few FA brought in so I am guessing that maybe 5-6 rookies make the team. That combined with last years players would mean roughly 20-25% of the roster would be 1st or 2nd year players.

    We are currently projected to have 5 picks in the 1st 3 rounds, with a comp pick for Asante. Does anyone else think that the Pats will ask for more future picks for Cassell rather than picks in this years draft because we already have enough early picks to find players that will make the team this year?

    This doesn't mean that I think the Pats won't move around in this years draft just that if we get 2 more day 1 picks this year for Cassell not all of the 1-3rd round picks will have roster slots this year. Let alone slots for diamond in the rough players, like Guyton.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2009
  2. CanadianPat'sFan

    CanadianPat'sFan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I believe that BB is going to use those picks very well. Weather he uses them to move up to get a player he targeted or he makes a trade which includes 2010 draft picks. My educated guess is he will try to push one or maybe two picks to 2010 and may use one or two in draft day trades. Also the possibility of trading a draft pick for an established player such as Tony G. or Tory Holt could also be a possibility.
     
  3. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    I would say a handful of picks that can actually make the team would be a nice haul. Much as we wring our hands, this team doesn't have a lot of holes outside the ones that we have discussed ad nauseum. Additional quality would be nice to have but that's more of a luxury in today's NFL than a necessity. Every team goes into the seasons with some weaknesses/deficiencies. The key is to balance the team's strengths and use those to their best effects.
     
  4. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Last year we had Mayo, Crable, Guyton, Redd, Wheatley, Wilhite, Slater and O'Connell all make the team, as far as I can recall. Obviously not all saw significant playing time. With a likely 5-6 picks in the top 100 of a very deep draft, I think we can expect somewhat similar results this year.

    Another way to look at it is that we typically average about a 20% turnover on our roster, or about 12-13 players a year. Last year in addition to the 8 rookies we added RB Lamont Jordon, CB Deltha O'Neal, and OT Mark LeVoir, plus a few players at the back end of the roster. I expect a similar turnover this year.
     
  5. Jimke

    Jimke In the Starting Line-Up

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    It is true that this year's team has very few holes but only 17

    players are signed beyond this year. Wouldn't it be ideal to fill

    some of these vacancies by drafting a couple of extra players

    this year?
     
  6. Wretch

    Wretch On the Game Day Roster

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    One of the reasons I posed this question is that I have been debating internally, how many players do you want to make your team every year?

    My thoughts are this. In order to manage expiring rookie contracts you only want 5-8 rookies to make the team each year. Assuming all of the 1-3 round picks make your team and you get a late rounder or UFA, like Guyton, that pans out. Their rookie contracts will all expire within a year or two of each other. These players will be looking for significant pay raises in their second contract.

    If more than the 5-8 rookies make the team in a given year pan out to be legitimate NFL players then the team puts itself in a position to have a huge hit to its cap to resign all of the players to new contracts. So the team either lets players go or puts itself in cap hell. However if you are only talking about 5-8 player with expiring rookie contracts the team creates a more manageable cap situation.

    Of course all of this supposes that you get 5-8 rookies per year that become good player and your team is not located in Detroit.

    5-8 rookies would be a 10-15% overall team turn over. If you throw in a few Vet FAs then you get to the 20% average annual roster turnover.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2009
  7. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Roster
    Tyson DeVree - UDFA
    BenJarvus Green-Ellis - UDFA
    Gary Guyton - UDFA
    Jerod Mayo - Day One
    Kevin O'Connell - Mid-round
    Vince Redd - UDFA
    Matthew Slater - Mid-round
    Jonathan Wilhite - Mid-round

    Injured Reserve
    Shawn Crable - Mid-round
    Bo Ruud - Late round
    Terrence Wheatley - Day One

    Practice Squad
    Titus Adams - UDFA
    Angelo Craig - UDFA signed as a street FA
    Mark Dillard - UDFA
    Darrell Robertson - UDFA signed as a street FA
    Ryan Wendell - UDFA

    So, that's:
    -- 9 UDFA
    -- 2 Day One
    -- 4 Mid-round
    -- 1 Late round
    -- 16 Total, to end the season.

    From the legendary Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2009 Patriots Roster Page comes his current roster listing which I'm using to consider where a draft pick might prove an upgrade...

    Projected 2009 Starting Offense Based on Signed/Tendered Players - Miguel is presuming the Pats will tender offers to all of their ERFAs.

    LT Matt Light - Top 10
    LG Logan Mankins - no
    C Dan Koppen - Day One
    QB Tom Brady - no
    RG Stephen Neal - no
    RT Nick Kaczur - Top 10
    TE Ben Watson - no
    TE Dave Thomas - no
    WR Wes Welker - no
    RB Sammy Morris - Yep, but not a priority
    WR Randy Moss - no

    Projected 2008 Starting Defense Based on Signed/Tendered Players

    RDE Richard Seymour - no
    DT Vince Wilfork - no
    LDE Ty Warren - no
    LB Jerod Mayo - no
    LB Tedy Bruschi - yes
    LB Gary Guyton - yes
    LB Mike Vrabel - no
    CB Terrence Wheatley - Day One
    CB Ellis Hobbs, III - Day One
    CB Jonathan Wilhite - Day One
    S Brandon Meriweather - no

    Offensive Reserves:

    C Dan Connolly - Yes
    C Ryan Wendell - yes
    G Billy Yates - yes
    OT Mark LeVoir - Day One
    RT Ryan O'Callaghan - yes
    RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - yes
    RB Kevin Faulk - no
    RB Laurence Maroney - Day One
    QB Matt Cassell - no
    QB Matt Gutierrez - no
    QB Kevin O'Connell - no
    TE Tyson Devree - maybe
    WR Sam Aiken - yes
    WR Matt Slater - yes
    WR Kelley Washington - yes
    K Stephen Gostkowski - no

    Defensive Reserves:

    DE Jarvis Green - no
    DT Titus Adams - yes
    DT Le Kevin Smith - no
    CB Mike Richardson - Day One
    CB Antwain Spann - yes
    LB Shawn Crable - Day One
    LB Angelo Craig - yes
    LB Vince Redd - maybe
    LB Darrell Robertson - yes
    LB Bo Ruud - yes
    LB Adalius Thomas - maybe
    P Tom Malone - yes

    I see 17 "yes" they can be upgraded in this draft players here. There are 3 more roster spots open (20), plus the Practice Squad (28), and the risk of a "no" or "maybe" player going on IR. 28+ slots where a draft pick could prove competitive. NE is projected to have 10-11 picks, plus a possible Matt Cassel lottery. Even if BB did not bundle picks together to move up for a desired player (which I believe he will at some point), there could be another 16 draftees/UDFAs who make a place for themselves in NE from this draft, though half of that would be about right I'd think.
     
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I didn't count practice squad players in my list of which rookies made the team. I also didn't count Ruud because I didn't see him making the final 53 before he went on IR. I did count Redd because he played on the team for a reasonable portion of the season, and Crable because he was on the 53 man roster for a reasonable portion of the season. I had forgotten whether Law Firm and DeVries were UDFAs from last year or from before.

    Regarding your roster, I can't believe you have AD listed as a backup. He's one of the starting LBs, and can't be improved on. I would say that Kaczur could be ugraded with a first day pick, not a top-10. But overall I agree with most of your list.

    Belichick appears to value his vets and continuity highly. I get the impression that he doesn't want more than about 20-25% of the roster turning over in any given year. So even though a lot of those players might individually be improved on, the odds are that we won't see a massive turnover in one season.
     
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    50 players are signed. Ventrone is the one ERFA (is he on your list). So there is room for a couple of more. Of course, the re-signs of our own free agents will fill some of those spots with non-rookies.

     
  10. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Okay you two, what part of reading comprehension did your teachers omit? The "list" is not mine, it's Miguel's roster which he puts together in his inimitable fashion where he lists signed players who are on IR as "reserves."
     
  11. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Such a stickler.....
     
  12. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Once you've been stickled, it just stays with you forever.
     
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I didn't omit any of reading comprehension. The roster may have been Miguel's, but the "list" of players who could potentially be upgraded - which was what I was referred to - was your own addition.
     
  14. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So? Adalius was listed as a reserve by Miguel. Yes, I listed him as a "maybe," he'll be 32 at the start of the season and is coming back from a broken arm that finally put him on IR because he wasn't healing as fast as was hoped. Now that may be nothing, but it rates a caution flag. I expect him back and starting, that's not to say he's guaranteed to be the stud of seasons past or couldn't be upgraded by another 6th round wonder BB pulls out of his hat.
     
  15. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So if I understand you correctly, it would take a top 10 pick to upgrade Nick Kaczur at RT but Adalius Thomas could possibly be upgraded by "another 6th round wonder BB pulls out of his hat". Hmmm.
     
  16. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :rofl: And I'm called a stickler!

    1. Kaczur isn't a RT, he's a swing tackle who can easily give BB 95%+ at LT. If you want someone better than Kaczur at RT, you need to draft a LT who's that much better.

    2. Thomas is my starter and right at this moment the only player in this draft who might upgrade him out of the box is Curry. That said, Thomas himself was a sixth round draft pick who played mostly Special Yeams before he grew into the monster he is today. It is conceivable there could be an athletic youth who will require the same 3 year development time who could upgrade Thomas - not immediately, but I don't require instant gratification, patience has it's own rewards (the kind we might be seeing in the next month after a Cassel trade is announced). If we look at athletic kids in this draft who might grow into Adalius: Barwin, English, Cody Brown, Evrette Brown, Orakpo, Orion Martin, Clay Matthews, Lee Robinson...
     
  17. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't get many chances to yank your chain ... you've got to allow me a few moments of fun. :)
     
  18. 14thDragon

    14thDragon Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I will just leave the ones I disagree with, with some comments. I will not go into positions, but I clearly think that Miguel made an error by listing Guyton as a starter, IR or not, I would suggest leaving a blank before penciling Guyton as a starting OLB, and if IIRC Redd was not IRed and so eligible for that spot.

    So adding it up, I see a full 24 positions that could be upgraded in the offseason. Now I do not think all of them will be upgraded, and some can be upgraded by just upgrading the guy at the top of the chart and shifting down. Tallying it up, I figure a good 7-10 spots on the opening day roster will be rookies. (4-7 actually suiting up, and 1-3 starting).
     
  19. cstjohn17

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    #54 Jersey

    Simple, based on a statistical analysis and extensive research it comes down to 50%. Half the draft picks will make team (make the team includes practice squad).

    A really good draft would include one first year starter and two future starters along with 2-3 JAGs.

    Looking at the roster there are not a lot of spots a rookie could fill (based on current draft slots). The Pats look to get younger (cheaper), it doesn't appear that they will be very active in the veteran FA market.

    3rd WR
    RB - a 1st or 2nd round pick good nudge out Maroneyand/or Morris
    FB - outside chance that a young FB could be the starter
    CB - the spot opposite Hobbs is wide open, a 1st round
    Punter
    Long snapper - another real long shot
    ILB - two years in a row? crazy, unlikely but maybe
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2009
  20. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Considering that Belichick, up to this point, has not cut any draft pick taken in the 1st 4 rounds in their 1st training camp, I think the number could be as high as 7. And, considering the number of free agents the Pats have (Seventeen), I could easily see more than 7 making the team.
     
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