DW Toys
In the Starting Line-Up
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- Jan 9, 2007
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We all go to the end of April with Sugar Plumbs dancing in our head as Draft day appears. Except the Patriots fans that know how Belichick works perhaps Pats fans go in with low expectations, or at least they say that. I really think that we still all remain optimistic until we see the results at the end and see obvious flaws that most in this forum, will point out and be astutely correct.....But in all nievity we still hope that each and every selection makes an impact.
Trading down is an unpleasant subject to Pats fans.In fact Andy Hart just mentioned that since BB has been "buying the groceries", He has traded out of the first round pick for a future first round pick three years, and a total of eight times Belichick has either traded down or out with his first-round pick. And he’s traded down or out with a first-round pick in each of the last five drafts.
In fact it is proven BB is better at picking up FA, trades, UDFA than he does with his unremarkable down trading that have brought mixed results. It is also pretty ambitious thinking from all NFL fans and management that a single Draft day can make a Teams fortune, although a few have struck gold that day like the 74 Steeler Draft. Just don't be surprised at the results I have found.
There are 32 NFL Teams and all of the fans of each Team fan listens to the "Build Through The Draft" myth spun by the experts.
In Last years Draft 254 players were picked. Only 47 on them became actual full time starters or just 18%. . That is not even two players per Team. Another 4 started in at least 10 games and another 18 started in at least 5 as they worked themselves higher on depth charts. So we can use 69 as an extended success number or 27%. The single or few starts can be attributed to roster injury or end of year implications. Kicking game players were not figured in of the few in the 254.
Over a three year period on time, some of these 69 players will be injured, be traded or just be replaced by better players so the initial number goes down, but the fact that other Drafted players this year will ascend to be starters or high profile players and the percentages even out.
The Pats go to the Draft with six choices. Honestly, the chances are that less than two (say two) will work out to be full time starters or impact players on this Team. They do increase in success the higher they are Drafted!
The first and second Team All Pro players from 2011, over 90% were first or second round Draft picks.
The Point? The Pats have the opportunity to trade up and perhaps gain maybe three high profile players. Those are actually considered a good Draft. Six of those we have now for April, if we stand on those choices, 4 will wash out. The percentages say to uptrade and BB swapping down has only gotten us next years picks. It's like Groundhog Day with Bill Murray.
All NFL Fans have the same problem. "All seven choices will make my Team!"...Nyet, won't happen.
In the 2011 Draft the Team with the most starters from the Draft was the Cleveland Browns. One of the least amount of Starters in 2011 was the Packers at 0 for 9. The Browns had a need to get those guys playing. The Pack can wait to develop them. Better Teams can wait on players. BPA is also a myth. Teams to pigeon hole needs which brings us to the Pats.
.......At the end of the Day PASS RUSHERS ,...... we can't be looking for pass rushers from this Draft to replace the two we lost because chances are (and by facts) only two from our whole Draft will be quality players.
How do we obtain more pass rush from the loss of Anderson and maybe Carter? Scott might be o.k. but to say we are going to positively get two in the Draft may be folly. I say take one of these 1st round picks BB will likely trade anyway and go after Jared Allen.....or just package all your choices up to get to the front so you can get a couple....THE PASS RUSH IS WHAT EVERYONE HAS SAID THE PATS BIGGEST 2012 NEED IS.
Everyone made fun of Ditka and the Falcons last year of packaging up choices to get the guy they wanted. Wasn't that dumb.
Year after year it has been proven the actual Team Draft success is 17% of quality players retained for a term of three years for determination.
Your Thoughts?
DW Toys
Trading down is an unpleasant subject to Pats fans.In fact Andy Hart just mentioned that since BB has been "buying the groceries", He has traded out of the first round pick for a future first round pick three years, and a total of eight times Belichick has either traded down or out with his first-round pick. And he’s traded down or out with a first-round pick in each of the last five drafts.
In fact it is proven BB is better at picking up FA, trades, UDFA than he does with his unremarkable down trading that have brought mixed results. It is also pretty ambitious thinking from all NFL fans and management that a single Draft day can make a Teams fortune, although a few have struck gold that day like the 74 Steeler Draft. Just don't be surprised at the results I have found.
There are 32 NFL Teams and all of the fans of each Team fan listens to the "Build Through The Draft" myth spun by the experts.
In Last years Draft 254 players were picked. Only 47 on them became actual full time starters or just 18%. . That is not even two players per Team. Another 4 started in at least 10 games and another 18 started in at least 5 as they worked themselves higher on depth charts. So we can use 69 as an extended success number or 27%. The single or few starts can be attributed to roster injury or end of year implications. Kicking game players were not figured in of the few in the 254.
Over a three year period on time, some of these 69 players will be injured, be traded or just be replaced by better players so the initial number goes down, but the fact that other Drafted players this year will ascend to be starters or high profile players and the percentages even out.
The Pats go to the Draft with six choices. Honestly, the chances are that less than two (say two) will work out to be full time starters or impact players on this Team. They do increase in success the higher they are Drafted!
The first and second Team All Pro players from 2011, over 90% were first or second round Draft picks.
The Point? The Pats have the opportunity to trade up and perhaps gain maybe three high profile players. Those are actually considered a good Draft. Six of those we have now for April, if we stand on those choices, 4 will wash out. The percentages say to uptrade and BB swapping down has only gotten us next years picks. It's like Groundhog Day with Bill Murray.
All NFL Fans have the same problem. "All seven choices will make my Team!"...Nyet, won't happen.
In the 2011 Draft the Team with the most starters from the Draft was the Cleveland Browns. One of the least amount of Starters in 2011 was the Packers at 0 for 9. The Browns had a need to get those guys playing. The Pack can wait to develop them. Better Teams can wait on players. BPA is also a myth. Teams to pigeon hole needs which brings us to the Pats.
.......At the end of the Day PASS RUSHERS ,...... we can't be looking for pass rushers from this Draft to replace the two we lost because chances are (and by facts) only two from our whole Draft will be quality players.
How do we obtain more pass rush from the loss of Anderson and maybe Carter? Scott might be o.k. but to say we are going to positively get two in the Draft may be folly. I say take one of these 1st round picks BB will likely trade anyway and go after Jared Allen.....or just package all your choices up to get to the front so you can get a couple....THE PASS RUSH IS WHAT EVERYONE HAS SAID THE PATS BIGGEST 2012 NEED IS.
Everyone made fun of Ditka and the Falcons last year of packaging up choices to get the guy they wanted. Wasn't that dumb.
Year after year it has been proven the actual Team Draft success is 17% of quality players retained for a term of three years for determination.
Your Thoughts?
DW Toys
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