How many "discretionary" positions on the 53?

[patchick]

With all the debate about the value of RB #5 vs TE #4, and people proposing to cut Tebow about 7 times to make way for 7 different binkies , I started to wonder how many roster spots are really discretionary.

Below is my full breakdown of locks, near locks, and positional needs remaining after them. But to cut to the chase, I ended up with just TWO discretionary spots, to be selected from the following:

QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

How would you allot them?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

UNCONTROVERSIAL LOCKS, PRESUMING HEALTH:
QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (2) Ridley, Vereen
WR (4) Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, Boyce
TE (3) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Fells
C (1) Wendell
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (3) Ninkovich, Jones, Benard
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Armstead
LB(5) Spikes, Fletcher, Hightower, Collins, Mayo
CB (4) Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington
S (1) A. Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Aiken, Slater

Total players: 40

NEAR LOCKS:
RB (1) Washington
WR (1) Edelman
T (1) Zusevics
DE (1) Francis
FS (1) Gregory
ST (1) Mesko

Total players: 6

POSITIONAL DISTRIBUTION FOR FINAL 7 SPOTS, MIN/MAX:
QB 0/1
RB 1/2
WR 0/0
TE 0/2
OL 1/2
DE 0/1
DT 0/1
LB 0/2
CB 1/2
SS 1/2
FS 0/1
ST 0/0

Adding up the minimum column, you have 4 clear needs:
RB (let's call him Blount)
OL (let's call him Zusevics)
CB (let's call him Dowling)
SS (let's call him T. Wilson)

Personally, I'd up the needs column to 5 because I think a 4th TE is essential (Ballard). That would leave just two discretionary roster spots for your choice of:

QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

 

[Sicilian]

Interested premise. Right now on my 53 I've got 3 of your defined discretionary slots available, but only one of them (Cole) do I have a good idea will make it:

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, Washington, Bolden (could be Blount instead)
WR (6) Amendola, Dobson, Boyce, Thompkins, Edelman, Slater
TE (4) Gronkowski, Fells, Sudfeld, Ballard
C (2) Wendell, Connolly
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Zusevics
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (4) Ninkovich, Jones, Benard, Francis
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Armstead (or Grissom if Armstead starts on the PUP / isn't actually any good)
ILB(2) Spikes, Fletcher
OLB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Collins
CB (6) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Dowling, Cole
SS (2) Wilson, Wilson
FS (3) McCourty, Harmon, Gregory
ST (3) Gostkowski, Aiken, Mesko

Total players: 51
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

Disclaimer: I'm not terribly educated on backup OL, so I included Svitek and Zusevics just as options. I think 8 OL to start is enough, assuming we find decent ones in the mix.

One of my remaining two slots would go to a 5th DE, but I'm undecided on exactly who. It's down to Buchanan, Cunningham, and Bequette. Being able to slide inside and play DT in subs would help one of them distinguish themselves.

The last slot would be a special teamer, either Ebner or one of the LBs.

I think the offense is fine without any of the discretionary positions personally.

 

[patchick]

Interested premise. Right now on my 53 I've got 3 of your defined discretionary slots available, but only one of them (Cole) do I have a good idea will make it:

...

One of my remaining two slots would go to a 5th DE, but I'm undecided on exactly who. It's down to Buchanan, Cunningham, and Bequette. Being able to slide inside and play DT in subs would help one of them distinguish themselves.

The last slot would be a special teamer, either Ebner or one of the LBs.

I think the offense is fine without any of the discretionary positions personally.

Agreed, I end up with defense too, most likely Cole + a DE (Buchanan?)

I thought it was particularly interesting because most of the debate here has been about which offensive positions to give the last slots to.

 

[Sicilian]

Agreed, I end up with defense too, most likely Cole + a DE (Buchanan?)

I thought it was particularly interesting because most of the debate here has been about which offensive positions to give the last slots to.

Which is kind of where the argument in the "keep 5 RBs" thread lost me. They'd say, "But you can keep 5 if you just cut Tebow or only carry 8 OL!" and I'm thinking, I've already done that...

I think another thing to consider too is which positions you expect to be able to sneak good prospects to the practice squad. For example, I'm more inclined to keep Ebner AND another ST LB if we're able to get Buchanan to the PS. I don't think we need 5 DE's on gameday every week, I'd just like to have as many options there as possible.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Which is kind of where the argument in the "keep 5 RBs" thread lost me. They'd say, "But you can keep 5 if you just cut Tebow or only carry 8 OL!" and I'm thinking, I've already done that...

I think another thing to consider too is which positions you expect to be able to sneak good prospects to the practice squad. For example, I'm more inclined to keep Ebner AND another ST LB if we're able to get Buchanan to the PS. I don't think we need 5 DE's on gameday every week, I'd just like to have as many options there as possible.

I find Bolden's modest skill set more difficult to replace than Ebner's non-existant skill set. The dude can't play a position. If we let Ebner go, who picks him up? Columbus Rugby Squad?? I find him the least productive most talked about Patriot ever. He can play rugby. Big, bleepin deal. Here's my 53 with 5 rb's.

2 QB - Don't need a read-option qb
5 RB - We know who they are
6 wr - We know who they are
4 te - Gronk, Fells, Sudfeld and Ballard
Gronk probably inactive for a week or two. Don't want to PUP him and miss 6 games.
8 OL - Not sure about 8th guy. Could be waiver wire. 6th and 7th will be Cannon and Svitek
5 DE - Jones, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Benard and Buchanan
Cutting Bequette and Francis. Hope we can sign one to PS.
4 dt - Wilfork, Kelly, Fortson. Have Armstead on PUP. Think we pick someone off waiver wire to round out.
6 LB - Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher and ??? Beaharnais or Tarp
5 CB - Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan and Dowling
5 S - McCourty, A. Wilson, D. Harmon, Gregory and T. Wilson
3 ST - Gostkowski, Metsko and Aiken

 

[Sicilian]

I find Bolden's modest skill set more difficult to replace than Ebner's non-existant skill set. The dude can't play a position. If we let Ebner go, who picks him up? Columbus Rugby Squad?? I find him the least productive most talked about Patriot ever. He can play rugby. Big, bleepin deal. Here's my 53 with 5 rb's.

2 QB - Don't need a read-option qb
5 RB - We know who they are
6 wr - We know who they are
4 te - Gronk, Fells, Sudfeld and Ballard
Gronk probably inactive for a week or two. Don't want to PUP him and miss 6 games.
8 OL - Not sure about 8th guy. Could be waiver wire. 6th and 7th will be Cannon and Svitek
5 DE - Jones, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Benard and Buchanan
Cutting Bequette and Francis. Hope we can sign one to PS.
4 dt - Wilfork, Kelly, Fortson. Have Armstead on PUP. Think we pick someone off waiver wire to round out.
6 LB - Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher and ??? Beaharnais or Tarp
5 CB - Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan and Dowling
5 S - McCourty, A. Wilson, D. Harmon, Gregory and T. Wilson
3 ST - Gostkowski, Metsko and Aiken

I have Cole making it because I don't think you can count on Dowling to stay healthy all season yet, and while we don't want Cole starting he's as good a #5 CB as you're going to get AND he plays good ST in the meantime. Keeping him means losing either your 6th LB or 5th RB, most likely.

 

[patchick]

I find Bolden's modest skill set more difficult to replace than Ebner's non-existant skill set. The dude can't play a position. If we let Ebner go, who picks him up? Columbus Rugby Squad?? I find him the least productive most talked about Patriot ever. He can play rugby. Big, bleepin deal.

Point to ponder: Ebner made the active roster for more games than Bolden last year, when the Pats didn't have Blount as an option.

 

[TyronePoole]

Kind of surprising how quickly people have given up on Ebner. He went from everyone's binky project last year to totally expendable this year. If you weren't willing to hang in there while a ST gunner/rugby player stud learned one of the most complicated positions in the NFL then why weren't you decrying the pick last year? What exactly were your expectations when you were celebrating the guy?

 

[patchick]

Kind of surprising how quickly people have given up on Ebner. He went from everyone's binky project last year to totally expendable this year. If you weren't willing to hang in there while a ST gunner/rugby player stud learned one of the most complicated positions in the NFL then why weren't you decrying the pick last year? What exactly were your expectations when you were celebrating the guy?

Out of sight, out of mind. He's been injured for TC, so he can't be valuable, right?

 

[mgteich]

UNCONTROVERSIAL LOCKS (40)
1) You presume the health/readiness of Gronkowksi and Armstead.

NEAR LOCK (SHOULD BE 5)
2) Zusevics is competing for the need position not the near lock position. As you say, the 9th OL is discretionary. Zusevics is the clear need 8th OL. You have him as both a near lock and a clear need. BTW, I would think that the clear need is for a guard.

CLEAR NEEDS (4)
3) I agree that you have listed the four "clear" needs. I also agree that the players listed are the favorites. I consider a 4th TE to be discretionary. I suspect that you consider the position essential because of the quality of players we have available. As you know, we have often used offensive linemen as blocking TE's in certain packages.
===========================
SUBTOTAL (49) DISCRETIONARY = FOUR
=========================
QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 4 (Ballard)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom or Vellano)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

I added a couple of players (Rivera and Vellano). I would note that free agents may fill some of these roster spots. I only project one free agent at OG/C. There certainly could be more. especially if Armstead is not on the 53.
======================
CONCLUSIONS:

A) I agree with all your analysis and would choose Ballard (if healthy), Cole, Buchanan and a free agent OG/C.
B) I expect that Belichick will keep Tebow instead of the 9th OL. Unless Nick McDonald is on speed-dial, I would think that Zusevics may not make the 53.

With all the debate about the value of RB #5 vs TE #4, and people proposing to cut Tebow about 7 times to make way for 7 different binkies , I started to wonder how many roster spots are really discretionary.

Below is my full breakdown of locks, near locks, and positional needs remaining after them. But to cut to the chase, I ended up with just TWO discretionary spots, to be selected from the following:

QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides or Rivera)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

How would you allot them?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

UNCONTROVERSIAL LOCKS, PRESUMING HEALTH:
QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (2) Ridley, Vereen
WR (4) Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, Boyce
TE (3) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Fells
C (1) Wendell
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (3) Ninkovich, Jones, Benard
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Armstead
LB(5) Spikes, Fletcher, Hightower, Collins, Mayo
CB (4) Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington
S (1) A. Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Aiken, Slater

Total players: 40

NEAR LOCKS:
RB (1) Washington
WR (1) Edelman
T (1) Zusevics
DE (1) Francis
FS (1) Gregory
ST (1) Mesko

Total players: 6

POSITIONAL DISTRIBUTION FOR FINAL 7 SPOTS, MIN/MAX:
QB 0/1
RB 1/2
WR 0/0
TE 0/2
OL 1/2
DE 0/1
DT 0/1
LB 0/2
CB 1/2
SS 1/2
FS 0/1
ST 0/0

Adding up the minimum column, you have 4 clear needs:
RB (let's call him Blount)
OL (let's call him Zusevics)
CB (let's call him Dowling)
SS (let's call him T. Wilson)

Personally, I'd up the needs column to 5 because I think a 4th TE is essential (Ballard). That would leave just two discretionary roster spots for your choice of:

QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Point to ponder: Ebner made the active roster for more games than Bolden last year, when the Pats didn't have Blount as an option.

Put slightly differently: Ebner was never a healthy scratch.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps the issue is what we call discretionary. For example, you consider a 4th TE to be essential. My roster has 24 players on offense (not including Slater). I include the 9th OL (although Belichick may choose the 3rd QB). I also include the 4th TE as you do. So, half my four discretionary players are on offense.

We still have real choices regarding the 3rd QB, 5th RB, 4th TE, 5th TE, and 9th OL.

Agreed, I end up with defense too, most likely Cole + a DE (Buchanan?)

I thought it was particularly interesting because most of the debate here has been about which offensive positions to give the last slots to.

 

[mgteich]

I like your analysis. Personally, I have Blount over Bolden. With regard to the offensive line, many of us prefer to have 9, seven active (the norm) plus 2 inactive (one at OT and one at OG/C). Your choices are fine. However, I would note that if we have only 8 OL's, Zusevics would likely be replaced by an OG/C.

BTW, a 51 man roster is indeed possible. Belichick likes to play with the end of the roster, leaving room for acquisitions.

Interested premise. Right now on my 53 I've got 3 of your defined discretionary slots available, but only one of them (Cole) do I have a good idea will make it:

QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, Washington, Bolden (could be Blount instead)
WR (6) Amendola, Dobson, Boyce, Thompkins, Edelman, Slater
TE (4) Gronkowski, Fells, Sudfeld, Ballard
C (2) Wendell, Connolly
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Zusevics
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (4) Ninkovich, Jones, Benard, Francis
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Armstead (or Grissom if Armstead starts on the PUP / isn't actually any good)
ILB(2) Spikes, Fletcher
OLB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Collins
CB (6) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, Dowling, Cole
SS (2) Wilson, Wilson
FS (3) McCourty, Harmon, Gregory
ST (3) Gostkowski, Aiken, Mesko

Total players: 51
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2013

Disclaimer: I'm not terribly educated on backup OL, so I included Svitek and Zusevics just as options. I think 8 OL to start is enough, assuming we find decent ones in the mix.

One of my remaining two slots would go to a 5th DE, but I'm undecided on exactly who. It's down to Buchanan, Cunningham, and Bequette. Being able to slide inside and play DT in subs would help one of them distinguish themselves.

The last slot would be a special teamer, either Ebner or one of the LBs.

I think the offense is fine without any of the discretionary positions personally.

 

[patchick]

UNCONTROVERSIAL LOCKS, PRESUMING HEALTH

UNCONTROVERSIAL LOCKS (40)
1) You presume the health/readiness of Gronkowksi and Armstead.

Yep, thought I made that explict. They both seem to be moving in the direction of practice, and both seem valuable enough not to PUP if they'd be ready by week 2 or so. If there's no more progress soon, though, I might rethink.

NEAR LOCK (SHOULD BE 5)
2) Zusevics is competing for the need position not the near lock position. As you say, the 9th OL is discretionary. Zusevics is the clear need 8th OL. You have him as both a near lock and a clear need. BTW, I would think that the clear need is for a guard.

Ah, you're right, it looks like I miscounted my OL! That gives one more slot to play with. That I'm not sure about prioritizing G vs. T, though, since Svitek has been filling in so ably at guard.

I consider a 4th TE to be discretionary. I suspect that you consider the position essential because of the quality of players we have available.

My thinking was more that I expect 3 TEs to dress for every game, so that with just e a single injury to any of the 3 would leave the team shorthanded.

CONCLUSIONS:

A) I agree with all your analysis and would choose Ballard (if healthy), Cole, Buchanan and a free agent OG/C.
B) I expect that Belichick will keep Tebow instead of the 9th OL. Unless Nick McDonald is on speed-dial, I would think that Zusevics may not make the 53.

FWIW, my toughest cuts were Ebner and Beauharnais. The latter is PS eligible.

 

[JackBauer]

FWIW, my toughest cuts were Ebner and Beauharnais. The latter is PS eligible.

Just a hunch but I think Beauharnais sticks on the 53.

 

[mgteich]

In the end, we used the roster spots in the secondary. For most, it was Cole or Dowling for months. Now, we need Cole. Also, Belichick drafted 2 developmental players in the secondary. We need to keep Harmon and Ryan. 11 players in the secondary is a lot!

For me, I always preferred Cole over Ebner for a ST roster spot. Ebner's die was cast when Harmon was drafted and T Wilson didn't step up.

I suspect that we will have a couple of the STer's back on the team by mid-seaon, as we usually do. Beauharnais seems a perfect prospect for the Practice Squad.

FWIW, my toughest cuts were Ebner and Beauharnais. The latter is PS eligible.

 

[Oswlek]

FWIW, my toughest cuts were Ebner and Beauharnais. The latter is PS eligible.

I think you should reconsider the latter of those two. In fact, I'd be willing to write his name in pen. Erasable, but pen nonetheless.

 

[mgteich]

patchick can use her additional roster spot on Beauharnais.

I think you should reconsider the latter of those two. In fact, I'd be willing to write his name in pen. Erasable, but pen nonetheless.

 

[lurker1965]

Good thread. I won't pretend to know enough about the 4th TE or 8th OL to comment intelligibly. However I do know this deserves to be on page #1. Therefore this nothing post to bump the thread.

 

[AzPatsFan]

With all the debate about the value of RB #5 vs TE #4, and people proposing to cut Tebow about 7 times to make way for 7 different binkies , I started to wonder how many roster spots are really discretionary.

Below is my full breakdown of locks, near locks, and positional needs remaining after them. But to cut to the chase, I ended up with just TWO discretionary spots, to be selected from the following:

QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

How would you allot them?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

UNCONTROVERSIAL LOCKS, PRESUMING HEALTH:
QB (2) Brady, Mallett
RB (2) Ridley, Vereen
WR (4) Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, Boyce
TE (3) Gronkowski, Sudfeld, Fells
C (1) Wendell
G (3) Mankins, Cannon, Connolly
T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Svitek
DE (3) Ninkovich, Jones, Benard
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Forston, Armstead
LB(5) Spikes, Fletcher, Hightower, Collins, Mayo
CB (4) Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington
S (1) A. Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
ST (3) Gostkowski, Aiken, Slater

Total players: 40

NEAR LOCKS:
RB (1) Washington
WR (1) Edelman
T (1) Zusevics
DE (1) Francis
FS (1) Gregory
ST (1) Mesko

Total players: 6

POSITIONAL DISTRIBUTION FOR FINAL 7 SPOTS, MIN/MAX:
QB 0/1
RB 1/2
WR 0/0
TE 0/2
OL 1/2
DE 0/1
DT 0/1
LB 0/2
CB 1/2
SS 1/2
FS 0/1
ST 0/0

Adding up the minimum column, you have 4 clear needs:
RB (let's call him Blount)
OL (let's call him Zusevics)
CB (let's call him Dowling)
SS (let's call him T. Wilson)

Personally, I'd up the needs column to 5 because I think a 4th TE is essential (Ballard). That would leave just two discretionary roster spots for your choice of:

QB 3 (Tebow)
RB 5 ( Bolden)
TE 5 (Hooman)
OL 9 (Stankiewitch)
DE 5 (Bequette, Buchanan or Cunningham)
DT 5 (Grissom)
LB 6 (Beauharnais, Tarpinian or Koutovides)
CB 6 (Cole)
SS 3 (Ebner)

I don't think they need a 6th LB. You now have five good ones, Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Collins, and Fletcher. You can call on Adrian and Ninko if you were desperate.

Plus there are also lots of playable reserves who can play ST, like Fletcher, Collins, and Hightower. Plus Gronk, Armstead could be PUPed. Meanwhile Cunningham might be IRed, so could Ballard.

No one has discussed the PS or the Shadow Roster, yet. But Tim Tebow and Mike Jenkins would fit on the SR.

On the PS, candidates are Ray Allen P, Beauharnais LB, Winn RB, Sims and Aiken WR,Devlin FB, Grissom, White and Forsten DT, Zusevics, OL.