Grist For The Mill

[ATippett56]

What Deus said ^. But even if you want to make it a full-season thing, and not Super Bowl-specific, it's been three straight years of strongly pass-first offenses winning the SB. The Saints were exactly 55-45 in favor of pass in 2009, the Packers were 58-42 in 2010, and the Giants this year were 60/40. The Patriots, by comparison, were also 60/40.

Please take a moment and let that sink in: the Patriots ran the ball more frequently than the Giants did in 2011. The trend is clear, and the Patriots are right on the forefront of it where you should want them to be. The NFL has changed, and luckily for us Belichick is as good as anyone at spotting and adapting to these changes. A lot of you seem to want to drag the NFL back into the past, but that ship has sailed, and likely for good. I don't like the direction that the league is headed in anymore than you seem to, but that doesn't change reality.

The last time the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots offensive pass-run distribution was 33 passes/28 rushes for pass-run ratio of 54% pass/46% run.

When the New England Patriots offensive pass-run ratio becomes skewed (43 passes/19 rushes), the New England Patriots generate (or match) the lowest point production of the season, which was exactly the case against the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

The last time the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots offensive pass-run distribution was 33 passes/28 rushes for pass-run ratio of 54% pass/46% run.

When the New England Patriots offensive pass-run ratio becomes skewed (43 passes/19 rushes), the New England Patriots generate (or match) the lowest point production of the season, which was exactly the case against the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.

And what makes the playoff stats all the more telling is the Patriots have been in close games throughout. It's not like they've been 17 pts down and need to throw the ball all day long and yet in these close games they fall back into their old predictable ways....Brady in shotgun......throw throw throw the ball.....TO's.....lose the TOP game, etc
They has an 8 pt. lead with 11 minutes left in the 3rd qtr and never scored another point and never went on a clock eating, keep the D off the field drive to put that game away. This Patriot offense is incapable of that type of championship winning drive. Then you add the further problem of a slow as mollasses soon to be 35 yr old QB who is now routinely comes into these playoffs with injury problems.
Don't bother with the regular seasons stats. They don't matter because a different brand of football is played in the playoffs. Defenses are allowed to actually play defense......love it.
This is why the NE Colts aka Greatest Show On Turf struggles to play well EVERY YEAR in the playoffs.
Need to get back to a balanced offense where they can control the ball, control the clock and win games doing it.
You can no longer trust Tom Brady to make good decision and good throws at critical moments so you take that responsibility off his shoulders.
The coaching staff needs to take firm control of this playbook and Brady needs to be reeled in.

 

[Off The Grid]

Well said, Gentlemen. And all of you.

Some get it.

Some don't.

 

[Off The Grid]

Once more, for those just joining us...

The continued denials of the "We Don't Need No Steenkling RUN Game!!" crowd are very amusing!!

Super Bowl 36 ~ Pass/Run = 27/24 ~ Running = 47% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 38 ~ Pass/Run = 48/35 ~ Running = 42% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 39 ~ Pass/Run = 33/28 ~ Running = 46% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 42 ~ Pass/Run = 48/16 ~ Running = 25% ~ Defeat!!

Super Bowl 46 ~ Pass/Run = 43/19 ~ Running = 31% ~ Defeat!!

Yeah, no correlation, there!!

***

I'll grant you: As I said in the OP, the Packers and Saints of the last two years won the Super Bowls with distinctly Pass Heavy offenses...But that's 2 of ELEVEN!!

2-9!!

You "We Don't Need No Steenking RUN Game" guys go ahead and ROLL with that, if you like...

I'll put my coin on a BALANCED Offense, thank you VERY much!! :rocker:

 

[Snake Eyes]

Once more, for those just joining us...

The continued denials of the "We Don't Need No Steenkling RUN Game!!" crowd are very amusing!!

Super Bowl 36 ~ Pass/Run = 27/24 ~ Running = 47% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 38 ~ Pass/Run = 48/35 ~ Running = 42% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 39 ~ Pass/Run = 33/28 ~ Running = 46% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 42 ~ Pass/Run = 48/16 ~ Running = 25% ~ Defeat!!

Super Bowl 46 ~ Pass/Run = 43/19 ~ Running = 31% ~ Defeat!!

Yeah, no correlation, there!!

***

I'll grant you: As I said in the OP, the Packers and Saints of the last two years won the Super Bowls with distinctly Pass Heavy offenses...But that's 2 of ELEVEN!!

2-9!!

You "We Don't Need No Steenking RUN Game" guys go ahead and ROLL with that, if you like...

I'll put my coin on a BALANCED Offense, thank you VERY much!! :rocker:

It’s also worth mentioning that TFB was injured in both the SB losses. More of a run game means TFB doesn’t get beaten like a rented mule quite as often, and I think that just might extend the length and quality of his career.

 

[bucky]

Rhody,

when you make categorical statements that aren't backed up by any sort of facts, you start getting a reputation as a rubbish-spewer. For example:

And what makes the playoff stats all the more telling is the Patriots have been in close games throughout. It's not like they've been 17 pts down and need to throw the ball all day long and yet in these close games they fall back into their old predictable ways....Brady in shotgun......throw throw throw the ball.....TO's.....lose the TOP game, etc

Have you looked at the actual game stats? In 2007, they were VERY balanced in 2 of the 3 games, won TOP in 2 of the games and were even with the Giants in the Superbowl. In 2009, they were down 21 points in the 1st quarter and had to throw. Oh, and they couldn't stop the run to save their lives. In the 2010 Jets game, they were VERY balanced until the last 4 minutes of the game when they had to throw. And they won TOP in that game by 9 minutes! In 2011, they were VERY balanced in the first 2 games.

So every one of your above claims is totally a figment of your imagination. Yes, they had poor run/pass ratios in the games they lost. But they had good balance in the games they won. Which means that the issue is not schematic or philosophical, but rather that they are forced to pass in those games due to game-related circumstances.

You can no longer trust Tom Brady to make good decision and good throws at critical moments so you take that responsibility off his shoulders.
The coaching staff needs to take firm control of this playbook and Brady needs to be reeled in.

Tom Brady takes up a huge part of the salary cap. So if you want to "take decision-making responsibility off his shoulders", you are basically advocating the Pats cut him and go with a low-price QB who will "drive the bus" as Parcells says. That, in fact, is a certain way to make sure this team doesn't lose in the playoffs - because they're going to suck until they can rebuild their defense with 5 straight years' worth of top-10 picks.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The last time the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots offensive pass-run distribution was 33 passes/28 rushes for pass-run ratio of 54% pass/46% run.

When the New England Patriots offensive pass-run ratio becomes skewed (43 passes/19 rushes), the New England Patriots generate (or match) the lowest point production of the season, which was exactly the case against the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.

The league has changed a whole lot since 2004. More importantly, the difference between the 2004 team and 2011 is that, in 2004, we had a championship-caliber defense. It was at least as good as the offense. That stopped being the case a long time ago.

 

[ATippett56]

The league has changed a whole lot since 2004. More importantly, the difference between the 2004 team and 2011 is that, in 2004, we had a championship-caliber defense. It was at least as good as the offense. That stopped being the case a long time ago.

The New England Patriots offense hung the New England Patriots defense out to dry in the Super Bowl:

Offensive Drives
1 - play drive (intentional grounding - pass play)
3 - play drive (2 passes, 1 rush)
3 - play drive (2 passes, 1 rush)
5 - play drive (interception - pass play)

The New England Patriots offense essentially turned over the ball twice on passing plays, one on an interception and the other a safety. On the two three-and-outs, each time two pass plays were called to one rush play.

 

[Deus Irae]

The New England Patriots offense hung the New England Patriots defense out to dry in the Super Bowl:

Offensive Drives
1 - play drive (intentional grounding - pass play)
3 - play drive (2 passes, 1 rush)
3 - play drive (2 passes, 1 rush)
5 - play drive (interception - pass play)

The New England Patriots offense essentially turned over the ball twice on passing plays, one on an interception and the other a safety. On the two three-and-outs, each time two pass plays were called to one rush play.

You can keep repeating the same crap in thread after thread. You'll just be wrong in thread after thread. The Patriots didn't lose because they ran less than 45% of the time. They lost largely because Welker dropped a probable game-winning reception, and the defense couldn't make a tenuous lead hold up.

 

[Snake Eyes]

You can keep repeating the same crap in thread after thread. You'll just be wrong in thread after thread. The Patriots didn't lose because they ran less than 45% of the time. They lost largely because Welker dropped a probable game-winning reception, and the defense couldn't make a tenuous lead hold up.

Really? I guess none of the things prior to that happening had any effect

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

While Brady may go down as a top 3 QB of all time,the bottom line he is 35 and you simply cannot rely on an aging QB to carry a team to a title...regardless of how close it was....close only counts in horseshoes.

A 35 year old QB starts more and more to rely on his OL and his RBs to share the workload.....and the defense of course as well.

Does anyone here think Elway at 37 wins ANY Super Bowl if he didn't have a stud like Terrell Davis or a defense that had playmakers?

QBs who win SBs after 35 are extremely rare and you simply cannot put the burden of winning and losing on Brady's 'sore' Shoulders anymore....its time to change philosophy and run the ball more.

Brady isn't going to be passing for 5,000 yards each year for the next 4 years as he nears 40years old...its time for some change,not major change but definately some change.

If we don't have a Dillon type back who can do this on this current roster already then we need one.

 

[bucky]

The New England Patriots offense hung the New England Patriots defense out to dry in the Super Bowl:

Offensive Drives
1 - play drive (intentional grounding - pass play)
3 - play drive (2 passes, 1 rush)
3 - play drive (2 passes, 1 rush)
5 - play drive (interception - pass play)

The New England Patriots offense essentially turned over the ball twice on passing plays, one on an interception and the other a safety. On the two three-and-outs, each time two pass plays were called to one rush play.

To say that the offense "hung the defense out to dry" would imply that the defense actually contributed to the game in some positive way. The Giants had the ball 8 times. They scored 4 times and pinned the Pats inside the 10 yard line 3 times. The 8th time, they were in position to pin the Pats inside the 10, but the punter didn't make it happen. Now, you could argue, stubbornly and incorrectly, that the reason for this was the Giants' play selection. But in reality, the reason was the Patriots' defense's mistakes and inability to make a big play.

 

[Deus Irae]

Really? I guess none of the things prior to that happening had any effect

I'm not sure what part of "probable game winning" you can't grasp.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I'm not sure what part of "probable game winning" you can't grasp.

It's you who has trouble with concepts. Everyone looks at various plays within a game and they assume that those plays are the ones that decided the game but the truth is that they all play a part and that some stand out better to people who don't think about the game deeply.

You don't think that stupid safety cost us the game? It certainly played a part but most people dont think of it was importantly as the Welker drop because it happened at the beginning of the game rather than at the end.

It was a STUPID empty backfield play, so you're telling Tuck & Co. to rush TFB without having to worry about a run. So, we lose 2 pts and put the defense back on the field. If we could have gotten a drive going it then we would likely have gained points instead of giving them up, even with a FG you're looking at a 5yd swing. Even with no points you're still keeping their defense moving and helping tire them out.

It was also a pretty obvious pass play when Tuck sacked TFB and messed up his shoulder. Did you ever think that if Brady hadn't reinjured his shoulder that he might have thrown a better ball to Welker, which would more likely have been caught?

A COMPETENT ENEMY ONLY RESPECTS LEGITIMATE THREATS!!!

How much of a threat is our running game? How well do we conceal what kind of a play we're running?

 

[Deus Irae]

...A COMPETANT ENEMY ONLY RESPECTS LEGITIMATE THREATS!!!...

I would have read and responded to all of your post, but this all-caps portion stuck out and pretty much made it impossible to take the post even remotely seriously.

 

[ATippett56]

To say that the offense "hung the defense out to dry" would imply that the defense actually contributed to the game in some positive way.

The New England Patriots defense held the New York Giants offense to below the regular season scoring average, 19 points allowed (Super Bowl) versus 21 points allowed (regular season).

The Giants had the ball 8 times. They scored 4 times and pinned the Pats inside the 10 yard line 3 times. The 8th time, they were in position to pin the Pats inside the 10, but the punter didn't make it happen. Now, you could argue, stubbornly and incorrectly, that the reason for this was the Giants' play selection. But in reality, the reason was the Patriots' defense's mistakes and inability to make a big play.

The New England Patriots offense on three drives did not flip field position nor gave the New England Patriots defense sufficient time to recuperate.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

The New England Patriots defense held the New York Giants offense to below the regular season scoring average, 19 points allowed (Super Bowl) versus 21 points allowed (regular season).

The New England Patriots offense on three drives did not flip field position nor gave the New England Patriots defense sufficient time to recuperate.

The safety still counts as points, unless you went back and erased the safety in PIT, pick 6 in BUF etc. to make it fair, which I am sure you didn't.

Its not about points in a low scoring dog fight. They were thrown multiple ugly passes from Eli in two 'get a stop and win the championship' situations the last two SBs, they couldn't catch a damn thing, not even the multiple fumbles. Our defense is pathetic, and even more so if Brady isn't throwing it.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I would have read and responded to all of your post, but this all-caps portion stuck out and pretty much made it impossible to take the post even remotely seriously.

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!

Grid isn't the only one here who can use caps and pics

 

[Deus Irae]

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!

.....

Grid isn't the only one here who can use caps and pics

:confused2:

You're posting on competency and you can't spell competent.

 

[ATippett56]

The safety still counts as points, unless you went back and erased the safety in PIT, pick 6 in BUF etc. to make it fair, which I am sure you didn't.

The safety was attributable to the New England Patriots offense not the New England Patriots defense.

Its not about points in a low scoring dog fight. They were thrown multiple ugly passes from Eli in two 'get a stop and win the championship' situations the last two SBs, they couldn't catch a damn thing, not even the multiple fumbles. Our defense is pathetic, and even more so if Brady isn't throwing it.

During the 2011-12 NFL regular season, Tom Brady threw 12 interceptions. In the five NFL regular season games Tom Brady attempted more than 40 passes, Tom Brady threw 9 interceptions. Tom Brady attempted more than 40 passes in the Super Bowl and threw one costly interception.