Great Win, but Let's Not Blow it Out of Proportion

[BionicPatriot]

The REAL Patriots will be exposed of whether they are a legit SB contender or not in less than a month when they go to Indy and a few weeks later in N.O.,The Saints are by far the Class of the NFL..After seeing the Giants get trampled I am convinced that the Saints could tie NE with winning 16 RS games and maybe more.

That's honestly a wrap right there. I am going nuts waiting for the Indy and Saints game, because those games, Indy moreso, are the real measuring sticks. If you can stop those offenses you can stop anyone, and it'll be interesting how they handle our offense.

IMO, outside of the miracle run by the 06 Pats, the Patriot teams that struggled against the good teams this decade never fair well during post season. In 05, 06 and 08 we beat up on garbage teams and lost to pretty much all the good ones. Outside of 06, those teams did jack **** in the playoffs, one of them even missed the playoffs because of their lack of ability to beat the best opponents.

Those are defining games. Do they promise anything? No, they just show what level your team is on. Put it this way, I'll be 10x more convinced this team is forreal if we beat Indy 28-14 than the beat down we put on a dead team walking. JMO.

 

[apple strudel]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FO on FOX: Guts and Stomps


Essentially, winning by less than 10 points is not significant. A team that wins by less than 10 points, against any opponent, has no statistical advantage against that opponent later in the season. Killing bad teams is more predictive than closely beating good teams.

Thanks much, will read.

 

[Ring 6]

Here's a companion thread to give people perspective of the roller coaster / extremes that bandwagon fans have gone from week to week, based on a win or loss.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ng-3-2-record-tom-brady-into-perspective.html

Who cares about the opinion of a bandwagon fan? It has no analytical basis.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Believe me that when the Patriots win its awesome and I would not have it any other way especially when the sideline is having a party atmosphere

What I am saying is the time to truly celebrate this team is when they beat a high quality opponent which is coming up and Brady looks more like himself again during these games,it feels better to me when we do - For the next 3 weeks (including the bye week) we expect to win those 2 games against subpar teams- its after that when it gets exciting.

I've agreed with you up until this point. To say Brady has not shown he's back after doing what he did is insane. I know he did it against a bad secondary. However, what average QB breaks records? I'm not saying ****ty QBs wont have a field day with this secondary, because they will. However it takes a great QB to put on the kind of performance we witnessed. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Brady to do what he did today against a great team simply because a great team wouldn't let that happen.

We saw the sheep thrown to the wolves and the wolves ate it the **** up. Is that taking credit away from the wolf for easily defeating its weak prey? I know it's a funny comparison, but that's pretty much how I feel Brady did the Titans this week.

But I do agree with you saying this team has to prove more before saying they're for real.

 

[maverick4]

Synovia, the 03-04 Patriot teams routinely won close games. Are you saying they weren't as good as people think, that it only counts if you destroy easy, horrible opponents by huge scores?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FO on FOX: Guts and Stomps


Essentially, winning by less than 10 points is not significant. A team that wins by less than 10 points, against any opponent, has no statistical advantage against that opponent later in the season. Killing bad teams is more predictive than closely beating good teams.

The overriding point is that the inferior team was crushed because our all world QB looked like the all world QB.

Besides what exactly makes Indianapolis "elite"? Beating Tennessee 31-9? Beating a dreg team like Miami 27-23? Miami converted 15-21 on third down. I am sure that the 3rd down Nazis on this board wouldn't rate them even bush league.

Ask the Giants how that eliteness worked.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Google Stomps Vs Guts. Do you know what the word "Correlate" means?


Killing bad teams (or good teams) proves you're good. Narrowly beating good teams just proves you were better that day.

Beating Indy by 1 point means absolutely nothing. Beating a team by one point basically means in a rematch, they're just as likely to win as you are.

Beating good teams means you probably have a good chance at home field advantage should you meet them again in do or die games...put that into your consideration when you compare beating bad teams to good teams.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

That's honestly a wrap right there. I am going nuts waiting for the Indy and Saints game, because those games, Indy moreso, are the real measuring sticks. If you can stop those offenses you can stop anyone, and it'll be interesting how they handle our offense.

IMO, outside of the miracle run by the 06 Pats, the Patriot teams that struggled against the good teams this decade never fair well during post season. In 05, 06 and 08 we beat up on garbage teams and lost to pretty much all the good ones. Outside of 06, those teams did jack **** in the playoffs, one of them even missed the playoffs because of their lack of ability to beat the best opponents.

Those are defining games. Do they promise anything? No, they just show what level your team is on. Put it this way, I'll be 10x more convinced this team is forreal if we beat Indy 28-14 than the beat down we put on a dead team walking. JMO.

There is no way you could say it any better - I agree 1,000,000 times

In the immortal words of Ric Flair "To be the man you have to beat the Man"....you can't be 'the man' by beating little boys...Facing the real 'MEN' are a few weeks away.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I've agreed with you up until this point. To say Brady has not shown he's back after doing what he did is insane. I know he did it against a bad secondary. However, what average QB breaks records? I'm not saying ****ty QBs wont have a field day with this secondary, because they will. However it takes a great QB to put on the kind of performance we witnessed. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Brady to do what he did today against a great team simply because a great team wouldn't let that happen.

We saw the sheep thrown to the wolves and the wolves ate it the **** up. Is that taking credit away from the wolf for easily defeating its weak prey? I know it's a funny comparison, but that's pretty much how I feel Brady did the Titans this week.

But I do agree with you saying this team has to prove more before saying they're for real.

Brady also did it against an inferior team with absolutely no pass rush after they got to Brady early in the game - Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are 2 of the QBs I would say would have done almost as well as Brady did in that quarter,The OL is absolutely CRUCIAL to Brady's continued success down the road,Hell knows the running game needs to stay on course as well.

 

[Disco Volante]

• I am going to mark October 18th on my calendar and celebrate The Game TFB Came Back Day every year.
  

• I am going to get my hands on a recording of this game, wrap it up nice, and give it to myself for Christmas AND my birthday.

• I am going to watch random moments of this game from time to time and then tell the BF he can skip the foreplay.

I guess you could call these things blowing it out of proportion, but frankly I just don't care! :woohoo:

Now that's the spirit.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Brady also did it against an inferior team with absolutely no pass rush after they got to Brady early in the game,The OL is absolutely CRUCIAL to Brady's continued success down the road,Hell knows the running game needs to stay on course as well.

IMO, Lomo is moreso the reason. The game was an absolute joke the second he broke that huge run. It seemed like they weren't covering the deep part of the field like other defenses seem to do. Am I wrong thinking this? I mean, Moss was open repeatedly. It just seems like they might have moved their safeties up, they bit on the play action all day and we're merked because of it.

 

[Synovia]

There is no way you could say it any better - I agree 1,000,000 times

In the immortal words of Ric Flair "To be the man you have to beat the Man"....you can't be 'the man' by beating little boys...Facing the real 'MEN' are a few weeks away.

Except, history says otherwise.


History says that (in the NFL), crushing the weak is more important than beating the strong (in the regular season).

 

[apple strudel]

Except, history says otherwise.


History says that (in the NFL), crushing the weak is more important than beating the strong (in the regular season).

It doesn't seem to take into account strength of schedule, though. This analysis almost seems to be saying (and I haven't finished it yet, but I need to get back to work) that having an easier schedule gets a good team a bye week and a healthier team in the playoffs more than it says anything else. That's where the high number of stomps seems to come from. A team with a high number of gut wins may easily have had a harder schedule and therefore a harder time getting a good playoff seed, injuries notwithstanding. There are some other issues as well, such as the arbitrary choice of good teams being over .500 and bad teams under .500 (what about .500 teams, and how much better is a 9-7 team than a 7-9 team). Also, it's good to note that the major exceptions to the rule are the 2003 Patriots. There's a correlation there, but I'm not sure it's safe to draw pat (NPI) conclusions from it.

 

[maverick4]

Synovia, based on your claim that the best indicator for a contender is beating down easy teams, rather than beating tough ones... then the Broncos were probably at the top of your power ratings even before they played the Pats. That makes no sense.

 

[captain stone]

As the great philosopher Winston Wolf would say: Let's not suck each others d!cks just yet.

We still have no pass rush; partly because we have 3-4 DEs trying to play 4-3 DEs, and partly because we have below-average talent at OLB.

Our 2 vet CBs have lost their starting jobs to a rookie & a 2nd-year player, partly because of the ridiculously large cushions constantly - and needlessly - given to Denver's WRs last week.

We now have no semblence of a lead blocker for the forseeable future.

After throwing away nearly $2M, we still have no WR who can command double -teams deep.

And we just threw away another draft pick on a player who is no longer in the organization.

Other than those, Mrs. Lincoln, I was still happy to see Jeff Fisher humiliated on Sunday.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

This thread is hysterical........ WTF.

We dropped a 59 spot on a sh**ty team..... while holding said sh**ty team or zero points. The NFL has a history of putting out sh**ty teams every year, none of which have ever managed to get stopped to the tune 59-0 since 1950. It's not like this game was a pick-up game against me, you and Bobby Balew around the corner in the sandlot. The Titans are a sh**ty team, and one battling injuries, they are still a pro football team.

It's a significant accomplishment. It's not nothing. Does it get us a free ride into the playoffs or past the next opponent? Of course not, but to sit here and minimize it like it's another ho hum 27-24 win, is ****ing re-tah-ded. It's a significant win, a historic win....... but in the end, it's just another win. Time will tell what it means in the scheme of this season, but in the meantime, I'm gonna enjoy it.

Why do people feel compelled to keep everyone's emotions in-check? Aren't we all grown-ups and have a capacity to manage our dispositions and reactions accordingly?

Sports are supposed to be an emotional roller-coaster. Why not ride it?

Ahhhh, just what I was looking for............ Permission to actually enjoy this 59-0 win. Thanks you sir, may I have another.

 

[Joker]

After throwing away nearly $2M, we still have no WR who can command double -teams deep.

who are those two guys always following Moss around every game then...?

 

[captain stone]

Well, one of them is the guy who doesn't have to worry about the other WR going deep.