Question is, how do those teams do? Realistically I expect most of them expect to be a ****show in year one. They’ve either got a new GM with an incumbent coaching staff, so the GM is not doing anything anyway. Or they’ve got a new GM and a new HC and they have such a bad team that as long as whoever they draft can fog a mirror they’ll be an upgrade.
consider Tennessee as an example. Last year they hired a new GM, but had a stable HC incumbent so the new GM didn’t have to jump in alone. They got worse from last year to this year, and Vrabel got a quick hook because the owner wanted the GM to have as much time as possible to hire the new HC and prepare for the draft. Want to bet on how much improved the Titans will be this time next year?
How did those teams do? The fact that the GM was being replaced would lead me to believe those rosters were not very good to begin with in most, if not all cases. So yes, I agree - I definitely would not expect a one-year turnaround. History shows that to very seldom be the case. The best scenario to hope for is John Lynch with the 49ers, who jumped up to 13-3 in Year 3.
Though few and far between, there are a few cases of a head coach being hired prior to the GM. Seattle hired Pete Carroll a week before signing John Schneider, for example.
Here is a list of the current GMs (or equivalent duties with a different title), with date hired, record in that first year (and previous year).
All were hired from outside the organization unless noted differently below.
Ariz -- Monti Ossenfort -- 1/16/23 -- 4-13 (4-13 in '22)
Atl --- Terry Fontenot ---- 1/19/21 -- 7-10 (7-10 in '20)
Balt -- Eric DeCosta ------ 1/11/19 -- promoted from within
Buff -- Brandon Beane --- 5/09/17 -- 9-7 wild card (7-9 in '16)
Car --- vacant
Chi --- Ryan Poles -------- 1/25/22 -- 3-14 (6-11 in '21)
Cin --- Duke Tobin ------- 1/25/03 -- promoted from within (unofficial GM)
Cle --- Andrew Berry ----- 1/27/20 -- 11-5 wild card (6-10 in '19)
Dal --- Jerry Jones -------- 4/18/89 -- 1-15 (3-13 in '88)
Den -- George Paton ----- 1/12/21 -- 7-10 (5-11 in '20)
Det -- Brad Holmes ------- 1/14/21 -- 3-13-1 (5-11 in '20)
GB --- Brian Gutekunst --- 1/08/18 -- promoted from within
Hou -- Nick Caserio ------- 1/07/21 -- 4-13 (4-12 in '20)
Ind --- Chris Ballard ------- 1/30/17 -- 4-12 (8-8 in '16)
Jax --- Trent Baalke -------- 2/04/20 -- 1-15 (6-10 in '19)
KC ---- Brett Veach -------- 7/20/17 -- promoted from within
LVR -- Champ Kelly -------- interim
LAC -- JoJo Wooden ------- interim
Rams - Les Snead ---------- 2/10/12 --7-8-1 (2-14 in '11)
Mia--- Chris Grier ---------- 1/4/16 -- promoted from within
Minn - Kwesi Adofo-Mensah - 1/26/22 -- 13-4 won div (8-9 in '21)
Pats -- Bill Belichick -------- 1/27/00 -- 5-11 (8-8 in '99)
NO --- Mickey Loomis ----- 5/14/02 -- promoted from within
NYG -- Joe Schoen --------- 1/21/22 -- 9-7-1 wild card (4-13 in '21)
NYJ --- Joe Douglas -------- 6/07/19 -- 7-9 (4-12 in '18)
Pitt --- Omar Khan --------- 5/24/22 -- promoted from within
Phil --- Howie Roseman ---- 6/13/19 -- promoted from within
SF ---- John Lynch ---------- 1/29/17 -- 6-10 (2-14 in '16)
Sea --- John Schneider ----- 1/18/10 -- 7-9 won div (5-11 in '09)
TB ---- Jason Licht ---------- 1/21/14 -- 2-14 (4-12 in '13)
Tenn -- Ran Carthon -------- 1/18/23 -- new hire
Wash - Martin Mayhew ----- 1/21/21 -- 7-10 (7-9 in '20)