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Gary Guyton Pats most underrated player


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Anything's possible, but this is highly unlikely. Given that Bruschi was around post stroke and through 2008 (at 35 years old) and that Vrabel was still starting as late as 2008, it's not likely that what we've got here is an excellent and historically underrated group at LB that would be too much for the linebackers of the earlier part of the "decade", particularly since we see how weak this crew has been just by watching the games.

I do find the reliance on the stats to be an interesting place to go, though, considering one could use Moore's comparative statistical success to argue how crappy the Patriots LBs were this past year.

Let's be clear that this whole comparison was about the 2001 roster. That's the year you claimed the LBs were "vastly superior to the 2010 group" and that "no Patriots 2010 LB except Mayo could even hold Roman Phifer's jock." Obviously, over the course of their careers Willie, Vrabel, Bruschi, Johnson and Phifer were formidable talents. But in 2001? I really think the intervening years have shaded our memories.

In fact, the 2010 LBs across the board (not just Moore) put up better numbers. It may be just "relying on stats," but isn't that exactly what the 2010 LB corps was criticized for -- not "making plays" in the form of qb sacks, forced turnovers, etc? Here's the reality, full LB rosters 2001 vs 2010:

2001 Patriots Linebackers: 13 sacks 19 PDef 5 int 5 ff

2010 Patriots Linebackers: 17 sacks 23 PDef 6 int 7 ff

Now consider that 4 of the 7 LBs on the 2010 team were in their first year with the team, and that all return for 2011. Isn't it reasonable to expect significant growth from the group?

Can I get an "A-Men?!" I'm telling you guys, this defense is a championship away from greatness. The pieces are all there. Cunningham is a baller, he will make us forget about willie mac. Bodden coming back, that McCourty fella, spikes, mayo, vince. The kids have some serious talent and hopefully we can get this lockout garbage ironed out so master bill can get these children playing together.

Barring a Brady injury, or big vince/mayo going down, I like these guys for bringing the trophy back to its home!




meh, sleepless mumblings of an overworked and underpaid twenty something...
 
Let's be clear that this whole comparison was about the 2001 roster. That's the year you claimed the LBs were "vastly superior to the 2010 group" and that "no Patriots 2010 LB except Mayo could even hold Roman Phifer's jock." Obviously, over the course of their careers Willie, Vrabel, Bruschi, Johnson and Phifer were formidable talents. But in 2001? I really think the intervening years have shaded our memories.

In fact, the 2010 LBs across the board (not just Moore) put up better numbers. It may be just "relying on stats," but isn't that exactly what the 2010 LB corps was criticized for -- not "making plays" in the form of qb sacks, forced turnovers, etc? Here's the reality, full LB rosters 2001 vs 2010:

2001 Patriots Linebackers: 13 sacks 19 PDef 5 int 5 ff

2010 Patriots Linebackers: 17 sacks 23 PDef 6 int 7 ff

Now consider that 4 of the 7 LBs on the 2010 team were in their first year with the team, and that all return for 2011. Isn't it reasonable to expect significant growth from the group?

Well said. I've been trying to make this point for the past month, but was never able to so succinctly.

The biggest difference between the 2001 LB group and the 2010 is that 2001 ILBs/MLBs had much more experience in coverage and that the group in general was backed by a much better secondary. Fewer wide open receivers and a few less keystone cop escapades in the middle and the entire defense looks better.

As for Nink, I think it should be noted that Vrabel began marinating in the 3/4 from the moment he was drafted. By comparison, Nink's 5th season is only his 3rd in the 3/4.
 
Guyton has been great for us. He took over the role of leader when mayo went down. He could play both strong and weak side ILB. He can drop back in coverage or put pressure on the QB. He is a diamond in the ruff for UDFA!!
 
Well said. I've been trying to make this point for the past month, but was never able to so succinctly.

The biggest difference between the 2001 LB group and the 2010 is that 2001 ILBs/MLBs had much more experience in coverage and that the group in general was backed by a much better secondary. Fewer wide open receivers and a few less keystone cop escapades in the middle and the entire defense looks better.

As for Nink, I think it should be noted that Vrabel began marinating in the 3/4 from the moment he was drafted. By comparison, Nink's 5th season is only his 3rd in the 3/4.

You and Patchick make some excellent points. I would just like to add the CRITICAL point that the "rules/interpretation" of PI and holding were VASTLY different than what we see currently, which was a big advantage to the 2001 defense. Just think about what that extra second would mean to the rushers if the DBs could be more physical with the receivers.

This constant whining about our pass rush is starting to get on my nerves. Yes it wasn't elite, YES we'd all like to be better, but it wasn't even close to being one of the worst, AND has all the elements there to make a significant improvement, just based on the current roster, let alone FA pickups.

This was the youngest D in the league and is EVOLVING into something better, maybe even great. Perhaps its time for everyone to stop beating their breasts and wailing and just let things play out. I hate to say it, but some of us are starting to sound like Jet fans. thinking ONLY some superstar INDIVIDUAL can solve our problems

BTW0- O, I've never read a bad post that had the word "succinctly" in it. ;)
 
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Let's be clear that this whole comparison was about the 2001 roster. That's the year you claimed the LBs were "vastly superior to the 2010 group" and that "no Patriots 2010 LB except Mayo could even hold Roman Phifer's jock." Obviously, over the course of their careers Willie, Vrabel, Bruschi, Johnson and Phifer were formidable talents. But in 2001? I really think the intervening years have shaded our memories.

In fact, the 2010 LBs across the board (not just Moore) put up better numbers. It may be just "relying on stats," but isn't that exactly what the 2010 LB corps was criticized for -- not "making plays" in the form of qb sacks, forced turnovers, etc? Here's the reality, full LB rosters 2001 vs 2010:

2001 Patriots Linebackers: 13 sacks 19 PDef 5 int 5 ff

2010 Patriots Linebackers: 17 sacks 23 PDef 6 int 7 ff

Now consider that 4 of the 7 LBs on the 2010 team were in their first year with the team, and that all return for 2011. Isn't it reasonable to expect significant growth from the group?

I know exactly what year we're talking about.

I do find it funny that time has supposedly shaded my memory, but not yours as well, as you think you've nailed it. Cunningham was a rookie who could do little in terms of statistical production, yet he was arguably the team's best OLB by the end of the year. Ninkovich was so good that he couldn't keep TBC off the field, etc...

And I don't know who's version of "Plays" you're talking about, but I've defended Mayo from the "not enough ints/ffs/tfls" crowd, so you've got the wrong guy there. Mayo had an excellent season. Spikes did well enough against the run for a rookie. Guyton did well enough as a substitutional pass defending ILB. Cunningham seemed to show improvement over the course of the season, albeit without it really translating to huge production differences (i.e. his only sack coming in week 4). I don't need to see numeric comparisons to a 2001 team that allowed 41 fewer points even while not being able to play with the sort of leads that the 2010 team was able to use in order to know that Vrabel 2001 > Ninkovich 2001, etc...

I noticed you omitted that scoring stat, though.
 
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I know exactly what year we're talking about.

I do find it funny that time has supposedly shaded my memory, but not yours as well, as you think you've nailed it. Cunningham was a rookie who could do little in terms of statistical production, yet he was arguably the team's best OLB by the end of the year. Ninkovich was so good that he couldn't keep TBC off the field, etc...

And I don't know who's version of "Plays" you're talking about, but I've defended Mayo from the "not enough ints/ffs/tfls" crowd, so you've got the wrong guy there. Mayo had an excellent season. Spikes did well enough against the run for a rookie. Guyton did well enough as a substitutional pass defending ILB. Cunningham seemed to show improvement over the course of the season, albeit without it really translating to huge production differences (i.e. his only sack coming in week 4). I don't need to see numeric comparisons to a 2001 team that allowed 41 fewer points even while not being able to play with the sort of leads that the 2010 team was able to use in order to know that Vrabel 2001 > Ninkovich 2001, etc...

I noticed you omitted that scoring stat, though.

Umm...I "omitted" the scoring stat because I'm unaware of any stat for "points allowed by linebackers." If you want to attribute total scoring D to the LBs, though, I'm game. But at that point you HAVE to account for the major officiating changes have tilted the game toward the offense since 2001.

The average NFL team allowed 39 more points in 2010 than 2001. After that rule-driven +39, the 2010 Patriots defense -- the youngest defense in the league, with multiple rookie starters -- was almost dead even with the 2001 squad in points allowed.

Do I think the 2010 defense was really totally awesome? Nah, it was obviously uneven. But I do think that the extra year of seasoning on the youngsters + the return of Warren and Bodden gives the unit plenty of promise, even without draft or FA saviors. And to get back to the whole point that started this debate, I think Ninkovich shapes up to be a pretty solid piece.
 
Umm...I "omitted" the scoring stat because I'm unaware of any stat for "points allowed by linebackers." If you want to attribute total scoring D to the LBs, though, I'm game. But at that point you HAVE to account for the major officiating changes have tilted the game toward the offense since 2001.

The average NFL team allowed 39 more points in 2010 than 2001. After that rule-driven +39, the 2010 Patriots defense -- the youngest defense in the league, with multiple rookie starters -- was almost dead even with the 2001 squad in points allowed.

The scoring stats are important, because they show a completely different type of game being played by the team, which make the comparison of all the LB corps stats meaningless. The offense in 2010 scored 147 points more than the offense in 2001, which is a hell of a lot more than your 'rule driven +39', yet the defense wasn't able to take advantage of that. The oft-maligned 2009 defense allowed only 285 points, which was 28 fewer points than that 2010 team, so the statistical issue isn't just about '+39'. And, in case you're thinking of "more points scored = more points allowed", let me refer you to 2007, with just 274 points allowed by a defense that was frequently maligned by some people, here and elsewhere. Under BB's tenure, here are the years with 300+ points allowed:

2000 - 5-11 team
2002 - Down year after SB, failed Steve Martin experiment, 9-7 record w/no playoffs
2005 - post 2004 disaster year, w/retirements and strokes weakening the defense
2008 - Brady gone, scheme changes, Deltha O'Neal
2010 - last year

Also, the 2001 team went 12 games without giving up even 20 points to any team but the Rams (24 points), following the week 7 loss to the Broncos. That includes the playoff run.

Do I think the 2010 defense was really totally awesome? Nah, it was obviously uneven. But I do think that the extra year of seasoning on the youngsters + the return of Warren and Bodden gives the unit plenty of promise, even without draft or FA saviors. And to get back to the whole point that started this debate, I think Ninkovich shapes up to be a pretty solid piece.

The 2010 OLBs sucked. They were the weakest part of a bad defense. I hope he improves this year, but enough with the Ninkovich/Vrabel comparisons until Ninkovich actually does something. Vrabel helped lead his team to an SB victory in 3 of his first 4 seasons with the team, as well as helping them to an undefeated regular season later on. Ninkovich hasn't helped his team win a single postseason game yet.
 
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The scoring stats are important, because they show a completely different type of game being played by the team, which make the comparison of all the LB corps stats meaningless. The offense in 2010 scored 147 points more than the offense in 2001, which is a hell of a lot more than your 'rule driven +39', yet the defense wasn't able to take advantage of that. The oft-maligned 2009 defense allowed only 285 points, which was 28 fewer points than that 2010 team, so the statistical issue isn't just about '+39'. And, in case you're thinking of "more points scored = more points allowed", let me refer you to 2007, with just 274 points allowed by a defense that was frequently maligned by some people, here and elsewhere. Under BB's tenure, here are the years with 300+ points allowed:

2000 - 5-11 team
2002 - Down year after SB, failed Steve Martin experiment, 9-7 record w/no playoffs
2005 - post 2004 disaster year, w/retirements and strokes weakening the defense
2008 - Brady gone, scheme changes, Deltha O'Neal
2010 - last year

Also, the 2001 team went 12 games without giving up even 20 points to any team but the Rams (24 points), following the week 7 loss to the Broncos. That includes the playoff run.

The 2010 OLBs sucked. They were the weakest part of a bad defense. I hope he improves this year, but enough with the Ninkovich/Vrabel comparisons until Ninkovich actually does something. Vrabel helped lead his team to an SB victory in 3 of his first 4 seasons with the team, as well as helping them to an undefeated regular season later on. Ninkovich hasn't helped his team win a single postseason game yet.

You are abolutely correct that NE's offensive improvement more than offsets the leaguewide shift in scoring. NE's defense was clearly worse in 2010 than it was in 2001. But you are ignoring the dramatic difference in experience for both teams. That 2001 team had only one rookie playing a prominant role, a 6th overall pick at that, whereas 2010 was the youngest in the league.

I also disagree on with your assessment about the OLBs. I'm stealing this from another post so I don't have to retype:

OLB struggles were way down on the list of causes for NE's atrocious 3rd down defense last year. ILB coverage issues was by far the primary reason. The number of plays where TBC or Warren were bearing down on a QB only to see him calmly toss to a receiver completely uncovered right in front of him vastly outnumbered those where the coverage was solid but the QB had all day to wait for someone to come open.

Second on the list is NB coverage. When Butler struggled and then Wilhite got hurt, NE had to turn to an injured Chung to cover guys in the slot. I can see the reasoning for it, tons of depth in the safeties not much in the CBs, but it still wasn't ideal. Indy's march up and down the field at the end was largely on the back of Blair White, who was matched up against Pat. Selecting Dowling was very much a "need" pick and, hopefully with Bodden's return this issue is addressed.

Third on the list was the #2 outside CB. I am firmly in Arrington's corner and was one of the few in the preseason saying he was a lock to make the roster and that I actually thought he was a decent cover guy. But I meant "decent" as in nickle or dime, not starting outside. Again, reinforcements were sorely needed.

Finally we get to OLB. I wholeheartedly agree that NE needs a superior player added to this position. I also agree that NE should have been looking to address this issue a whole lot sooner - I wanted Woodley over Meriweather in 2007, for example. I just disagree where they come from. BB has shown more than enough willingness to take on a hefty contract if the right player becomes available. But your mention of Peppers is wildly off base. He is an older player who has zero experience at the position. On top of that, he was paid a ridiculous amount of money meaning you'd have to say goodbye to someone like Wilfork to add Peppers. It's a zero sum game, after all.

Lastly, fans overrate the impact OLBs have on the pass rush in general. NE's pass rush isn't based on OLBs killing their man every play, it is based on a multi-faceted attack that caused confusion and breakdown in protection. Every time I write that, someone starts talking about "ILB blitzing" which isn't precisely what I am saying. I'm saying that back in the day any of the 4-5 LBs on the field were just as much of a threat to rush or drop into coverage. Because of this, you'd see guys coming free regularly. What happened in 2005 when the ILB group was gutted? All of a sudden, those OLB studs looked decidely human.

Now, I'm not saying that Willie, Vrabel and Colvin weren't better players than the 2010 group. I'm just saying that a pass rush is a total team effort, and that none of those guys were the studs they became in their first year starting, as both Nink and Jermaine were last year.

I personally love the overall LB group that NE has right now, lots of complimentary talent and guys who fill necessary roles. In time they are going to be a very good, and possibly great unit. NE waited too long to start reconstructing the group, but now they're back on track, we just need to be patient and let the kids develop.

(and hope Carter becomes a hall-of-famer, of course. ;) )
 
I know exactly what year we're talking about.

I do find it funny that time has supposedly shaded my memory, but not yours as well, as you think you've nailed it. Cunningham was a rookie who could do little in terms of statistical production, yet he was arguably the team's best OLB by the end of the year. Ninkovich was so good that he couldn't keep TBC off the field, etc...
Wait. Your argument was the Vrabel and Phifer beat out tough comeptition. Now you are changing it to splitting time with an 8 year veteran is the death knewll of Ninkovich?
You left out "I was wrong about the 2001 OLBs facing tougher competition for playing time".

I noticed you omitted that scoring stat, though.
That is moronic and you know it.
 
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The scoring stats are important, because they show a completely different type of game being played by the team, which make the comparison of all the LB corps stats meaningless. The offense in 2010 scored 147 points more than the offense in 2001, which is a hell of a lot more than your 'rule driven +39', yet the defense wasn't able to take advantage of that.
How did they not take advantage of the 147 more points? They were 14-2. Now you are arguing that scoring 147 more and allowing 41 more is worse football? And you have it backwards. Take away prevent defense points and 2010 actually allowed less points.
Playoffs are another story, but you cast that aside on your argument here.


The oft-maligned 2009 defense allowed only 285 points, which was 28 fewer points than that 2010 team, so the statistical issue isn't just about '+39'. And, in case you're thinking of "more points scored = more points allowed", let me refer you to 2007, with just 274 points allowed by a defense that was frequently maligned by some people, here and elsewhere.
You are going to ignore NFL history and the prevent defense you saw with your eyes by making a statement about one team, one year? Horrendous argument, but you know that.

Under BB's tenure, here are the years with 300+ points allowed:

2000 - 5-11 team
2002 - Down year after SB, failed Steve Martin experiment, 9-7 record w/no playoffs
2005 - post 2004 disaster year, w/retirements and strokes weakening the defense
2008 - Brady gone, scheme changes, Deltha O'Neal
2010 - last year
None of those other teams were 14-2, and regardless this is a terribly weak argument when discussing OLBs.
Are you to say that from here on any discussion about any player or until simply boils down to points scored and allowed? That won't help you in most of your other unpopular arguments.

Also, the 2001 team went 12 games without giving up even 20 points to any team but the Rams (24 points), following the week 7 loss to the Broncos. That includes the playoff run.
And the 2010 Patriots were 2nd in points allowed the 2nd half of the season. What that has to do with evaluating OLB is the question.


The 2010 OLBs sucked. They were the weakest part of a bad defense. I hope he improves this year, but enough with the Ninkovich/Vrabel comparisons until Ninkovich actually does something. Vrabel helped lead his team to an SB victory in 3 of his first 4 seasons with the team, as well as helping them to an undefeated regular season later on. Ninkovich hasn't helped his team win a single postseason game yet.
The clinch that you know your argument is awful, you are now giving Mike Vrabel credit for all the success of the team, discounting that Nincovich 'led the team' to as good a regular season as Vrabel ever did (and all your stats are regular season, so throwing the post season in is incedulous to the rest of your argument) but all that counts for him is the playoff loss?

Ninkovich is no where near the player Vrabel was, but yes he shows some similarities to the early career of Vrabel, before Vrabel matured and became the player he became.
It is hilarious though watching you stick your foot in your mouth and scramble to move the goalposts when you know you are wrong and just are incapable of admitting it.

One more time:
True or false: Phifer and Vrabel started ahead of 'tough competition'?
 
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