Gamblers don't seem to trust the Patriots defense against the Falcons. So let's look at the numbers

[Soul_Survivor88]

Bovada has the over/under set at 59, which implies a high scoring Super Bowl- and the highest over/under for a Super Bowl in NFL history.

While I understand that both teams have high-scoring offenses, I'm more inclined to look at their season numbers to see how they performed against other top-ranked units in points scores/allowed. Here are the facts (courtesy of @XLIX)

The Patriots played 5 games against top-10 offenses and were 4-1, giving up an average of 19 points.

The Falcons played 8 top-10 offenses and were 7-1, giving up an average of 28 points.

The Patriots played 6 top-10 defenses, went 5-1 and scored an average of 28 points.

The Falcons played 4 top-10 defenses, went 2-2 and scored an average of 27.75 points.​

You can also look at Atlanta's four games against Top 10 defenses relative to each of those teams' regular season scoring average:

Seahawks: 18.2 points allowed. Atlanta scored 24 (Week 6) and 36 (Jan. 14 Divisional Round)

Broncos: 18.6 points allowed. Atlanta scored 23

Chiefs: 19.4 point allowed. Atlanta scored 28​

Those Top-10 defenses allowed on average 8.9 points more when facing Atlanta. And that 8.9 average falls to 6 points more when you remove Atlanta's 36-20 win against Seattle (Seattle's defense was greatly weakened by the Week 13 loss of Earl Thomas).

So based on that, New England, which allowed 15.6ppg, will likely allow 21-25 points to Atlanta.

 

[fightingirish595]

I'll be taking that under for sure. I expect a slow paced game

 

[ViperGTS]

Without research, what top flight great receiver had a even good day against this team in the past few years?

I can't come up with one. Why would this change?

 

[Kontradiction]

I'll be taking that under for sure. I expect a slow paced game

Aye. This might be the game where the Pats abandon the no huddle for large stretches in favor of killing the clock and keeping Ryan et al off the field. I think our offensive game plan will be a lot like those Colts game plans: hammer them with the run until they move a safety into the box to stop it then feast on the play action. Rinse and repeat.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

31-24 pats

 

[fightingirish595]

Aye. This might be the game where the Pats abandon the no huddle for large stretches in favor of killing the clock and keeping Ryan et al off the field. I think our offensive game plan will be a lot like those Colts game plans: hammer them with the run until they move a safety into the box to stop it then feast on the play action. Rinse and repeat.

Yeah I think the pass heavy schemes the last two weeks really play into our favor. We haven't really done much running. I'm not not really sure what to make of our running game. I think two factors the coaching staff will consider are will we have more success running or throwing, and how important is it to keep their offense off the field

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Aye. This might be the game where the Pats abandon the no huddle for large stretches in favor of killing the clock and keeping Ryan et al off the field. I think our offensive game plan will be a lot like those Colts game plans: hammer them with the run until they move a safety into the box to stop it then feast on the play action. Rinse and repeat.

Really hoping to see a lot of LG against the Falcons. Will plan to take a look at how their D has fared against run heavy attacks later on.

 

[deroc5050]

Without research, what top flight great receiver had a even good day against this team in the past few years?

I can't come up with one. Why would this change?

Ryan will throw into really tight windows when targeting Julio Jones. He isn't scared to throw to him even if he is double covered. I expect he will continue to try it. I only saw a couple games and highlights when Atlanta was playing, but they have been impressive to watch on offense.

Patriots are gonna need to bring there A game. Just like like the AFCC.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I don't see us winning this game if the falcons score 30. This defense will have to come up big.

 

[ViperGTS]

Ryan will throw into really tight windows when targeting Julio Jones. He isn't scared to throw to him even if he is double covered. I expect he will continue to try it. I only saw a couple games and highlights when Atlanta was playing, but they have been impressive to watch on offense.

Patriots are gonna need to bring there A game. Just like like the AFCC.

That will be his undoing against this D.

 

[Nikolai]

31-24 pats

Pretty close to my feeling...I've got 31-23. I think they'll be moving the ball, but kicking some field goals.

Like a couple others here have said, I expect it to start a little slow, and be close into the second quarter. The third quarter, as it has nearly all season, will tell the tale.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Pretty close to my feeling...I've got 31-23. I think they'll be moving the ball, but kicking some field goals.

Like a couple others here have said, I expect it to start a little slow, and be close into the second quarter. The third quarter, as it has nearly all season, will tell the tale.

I hope not. A fast start would do wonders for this team. It would be nice if we can run the football. We haven't been able to get more of a push from the OL.

 

[EddardSnow67]

I don't see us winning this game if the falcons score 30. This defense will have to come up big.

You may be right, but the Patriots have scored 28.4 points per game this season and 30 since Brady returned... I'd say the Patriots have a good enough offense to win a game in the 30s. Not saying it will happen.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

You may be right, but the Patriots have scored 28.4 points per game this season and 30 since Brady returned... I'd say the Patriots have a good enough offense to win a game in the 30s. Not saying it will happen.

Unless the Patriots strategy changes the next two weeks, they will seek to make the Falcons march the field. I'm wondering if Belichick might even only line up 2 defensive lineman on a lot of plays and try to dare the Falcons to run instead of pass.

I bring this up because I suspect the Patriots approach will lead to a lower score for both teams than many are predicting since Falcons drives may eat up a lot of clock. I'd pick the final score at 31-27 Patriots, conveniently 0.5 points under the over/under.

 

[IndianPat]

I bring this up because I suspect the Patriots approach will lead to a lower score for both teams than many are predicting since Falcons drives may eat up a lot of clock. I'd pick the final score at 31-27 Patriots.

Your forecast of 31-27 implies a high scoring game, contrary to your write up. It is just one point lower than the gamblers line.

 

[BobDigital]

Said before and say again 37-27 Patriots. Atlanta's D is going to find once they don't get pressure their young CBs are not up to it.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Your forecast of 31-27 implies a high scoring game, contrary to your write up. It is just one point lower than the gamblers line.

And I mention this in my post. I am referring to people who are putting the game at 35-34 types of numbers. I do think it will be high scoring based on both teams being offensive power houses, but I don't think both teams will score into the 30 point range.

Is this going to be a 24-21 type of dogfight? No, it doesn't look like it. But I also think it won't be a Falcons/Saints type of shootout.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Said before and say again 37-27 Patriots. Atlanta's D is going to find once they don't get pressure their young CBs are not up to it.

I watched the ATL v GB game again and noticed the Falcons' D line was just steamrolling the GB OL too often (especially after quarter 1). In multiple instances I watched the DL's pass rush just ran thru them. It was impressive in multiple instances and, IMHO, is the main reason why GB's scoring was stymied too frequently (not the only reason but the main reason). GB can't protect AR to maintain drives while it's weak D got exposed. It played out perfectly for ATL to quickly get a tidal wave of scoring and defensive stops momentum.
I also noticed the Falcons' DBs being aggressive - the kind of aggressive that works well provided the QB is scrambling within 4 ticks. That aggressiveness coupled with the pass rush -- the Atl D looked very good/potent.

I agree with your assessment Bobdigital IF our OL pitches a Pitt game like performance (if it does what GB did then Brady is going to get battered and it could get ugly). IMHO if the OL does its job we will see the Patriots's offense largely have their way with the Atl DBs and we won't lose for lack of scoring. It'll be up to the D to get enough stops (they won't need to shut them down just get a fair number of stops and FGs forced).

 

[luuked]

Without research, what top flight great receiver had a even good day against this team in the past few years?

I can't come up with one. Why would this change?

Because of all the Shanahan hype. Apparently no one can defend him and his schemes.

 

[luuked]

I don't see us winning this game if the falcons score 30. This defense will have to come up big.

If you'd say 35-40 then I would agree, don't see 30 as some kind of big hurdle for our offense.