Gamblers don't seem to trust the Patriots defense against the Falcons. So let's look at the numbers

[slash83]

Not sure what the offensive gameplan will or should be. Pats have options though, do you attack with the run and ware their defense down? Speed and quickness is Atls defense not big and strong. Or do you let Brady go to work against a young probably overmatched secondary.

 

[chumpchange]

I just don't get why the oddsmakers are so scared of the Falcons. I was elated when Green Bay was eliminated because I felt the Falcons were the far easier opponents. I mean, we're talking about the Falcons. The inexperienced, only-been-to-the-Super-Bowl-once Falcons. The 11-5 Falcons. The Falcons with the 25th-ranked Defense.

 

[slash83]

I just don't get why the oddsmakers are so scared of the Falcons. I was elated when Green Bay was eliminated because I felt the Falcons were the far easier opponents. I mean, we're talking about the Falcons. The inexperienced, only-been-to-the-Super-Bowl-once Falcons. The 11-5 Falcons. The Falcons with the 25th-ranked Defense.

As bad as GB looked I wanted no part of Rodgers.

 

[everlong]

I was thinking along the same lines.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Truth Hurts

The relativity index is how a team's offense and defense perform against what the teams they faced do on average. As you can see NE and ATL are #1 and #2. ATL gets all of there positive numbers from their offense at almost 11 points above average. Their defense however gives up over two points more than average. The Patriots are much more balance. I was thinking this would be a 28-24 type game and while a lot of points I don't think it's going to hit the over. I would also say ATL's defense with a lot of young players is better than the season's average and would say the same about the NE defense since they got the LB situation rectified, Malcolm Brown has really come on and Rowe and Ryan have solidified their roles. I can see this playing out even lower than that. Turnovers of course are the thing we cannot predict which could drive that up quickly. A pick 6, kick return for a TD, forced fumble returned for a TD and the game plays out much quicker.

 

[Uptown]

That will be his undoing against this D.

Not THIS team!!!

 

[Uptown]

I watched the ATL v GB game again and noticed the Falcons' D line was just steamrolling the GB OL too often (especially after quarter 1). In multiple instances I watched the DL's pass rush just ran thru them. It was impressive in multiple instances and, IMHO, is the main reason why GB's scoring was stymied too frequently (not the only reason but the main reason). GB can't protect AR to maintain drives while it's weak D got exposed. It played out perfectly for ATL to quickly get a tidal wave of scoring and defensive stops momentum.
I also noticed the Falcons' DBs being aggressive - the kind of aggressive that works well provided the QB is scrambling within 4 ticks. That aggressiveness coupled with the pass rush -- the Atl D looked very good/potent.

I agree with your assessment Bobdigital IF our OL pitches a Pitt game like performance (if it does what GB did then Brady is going to get battered and it could get ugly). IMHO if the OL does its job we will see the Patriots's offense largely have their way with the Atl DBs and we won't lose for lack of scoring. It'll be up to the D to get enough stops (they won't need to shut them down just get a fair number of stops and FGs forced).

Honestly, I think (in regards to GB O-Line) those guys have been straight PASS BLOCKING for weeks now since they have NO running game to speak of. That will gas ANY o-line. I just think they finally broke down against a high-powered team that always plays with a lead, so all ATLs d-line usually has to do is pin their ears back.

 

[Uptown]

Not sure what the offensive gameplan will or should be. Pats have options though, do you attack with the run and ware their defense down? Speed and quickness is Atls defense not big and strong. Or do you let Brady go to work against a young probably overmatched secondary.

Can we have our cake & eat it too?

 

[Uptown]

Honestly, I want a f*#cking blowout in this one! All of our SBs have been nail biters. I want that narrative to change this year. Also, I really think this could be one of those special Pat's games where we are so in-sync that LG runs for ~120-130 & Brady lights them up for ~320-400. I don't want to short change ATLs D by any means, but let's face it; they're ranked 27th, they're young & small, & this will be they're first time under the biggest of stages. This COULD get nasty!

 

[chumpchange]

Honestly, I want a f*#cking blowout in this one! All of our SBs have been nail biters. I want that narrative to change this year. Also, I really think this could be one of those special Pat's games where we are so in-sync that LG runs for ~120-130 & Brady lights them up for ~320-400. I don't want to short change ATLs D by any means, but let's face it; they're ranked 27th, they're young & small, & this will be they're first time under the biggest of stages. This COULD get nasty!

I really think this is exactly what's going to happen. Belichick thinks we're "special" this year; Brady's getting all philosophical with that "be formless, be shapeless, like water" on his instagram. I think this one is going to be a great, all-around performance.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I can see this going like an inverse to the Patriot-Panther SB.

First half both teams have some electric scoring followed by a 2nd half that features some great defense and some low scores. Though, that would seem counter to how the Patriots wear opponents down and figure them out by the 4th quarter.

 

[ivanvamp]

You may be right, but the Patriots have scored 28.4 points per game this season and 30 since Brady returned... I'd say the Patriots have a good enough offense to win a game in the 30s. Not saying it will happen.

Last four games, the Pats have scored 36.5 points a game. Clearly, this team can put points up on the board. And Atlanta's defense, while improved, is clearly weaker than their offense. The Patriots should be able to score in the upper 20s or low 30s without too much difficulty.

Whether that's enough.....well.... who knows.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

I was thinking along the same lines.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Truth Hurts

The relativity index is how a team's offense and defense perform against what the teams they faced do on average. As you can see NE and ATL are #1 and #2. ATL gets all of there positive numbers from their offense at almost 11 points above average. Their defense however gives up over two points more than average. The Patriots are much more balance.

You could also look at ESPN's EPA (expected points added) and draw the same conclusion. This year’s Falcons led the NFL in offensive efficiency by a wide margin, with an EPA of 12.4. But Atlanta's defense cost them almost half their points added to their expected scoring margin (-5.3 points per game).

Though the Falcons' offense has been good enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies (and their defense has improved significantly since their Week 11 bye) it's worth noting that no team has ever won a Super Bowl allowing as many points per game as Atlanta did this year (406 points, or 25.4 per game ). Currently, the 2011 New York Giants (who beat the Patriots, 21-17) have the high-water mark for points surrendered by a Super Bowl winner (400). So if the Falcons go on to win, they would arguably become the worst Super Bowl-winning defense in the game’s history.

 

[denverpatsfan]

What about Special Teams? How does ATL look? Do the Pats have an advantage there? Or are they strong as well?

 

[JMC00]

I don't see us winning this game if the falcons score 30. This defense will have to come up big.

Pats have just scored 34 and 36 points in their 2 playoffs games, not to mention put 35 up on the lolphins in week 17, but they for sure can't score 30 in this game?

Your takes are garbage.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Aye. This might be the game where the Pats abandon the no huddle for large stretches in favor of killing the clock and keeping Ryan et al off the field. I think our offensive game plan will be a lot like those Colts game plans: hammer them with the run until they move a safety into the box to stop it then feast on the play action. Rinse and repeat.

Yeah. I see the game going two ways -- one way is a crazy shootout that easily torches the over. The other way is long drive after long drive. Very few punts, but with drives grinding up big chunks of time.