Future Extension for Cooks

[supafly]

devante adams just got extended for $14mil a year so thats probably the bare minimum for cooks.

If that’s really the case, then we can start to prepare for 2019 without him.

 

[TBR]

devante adams just got extended for $14mil a year so thats probably the bare minimum for cooks.

I can't imagine Bill paying Cooks $11M, let alone $14M. If he were a game changing player like Brown/Jones/Beckham/Hopkins, then maybe. But in comparison to those guys, he's way too one-dimensional and seems to require Brady making a perfectly placed downfield bomb for all his chunk plays, as opposed to making plays on his own (ex. taking a slant for 40+ yards).

 

[supafly]

I can't imagine Bill paying Cooks $11M, let alone $14M. If he were a game changing player like Brown/Jones/Beckham/Hopkins, then maybe. But in comparison to those guys, he's way too one-dimensional.

He is right now, although another offseason and fall with Brady may help him grow a bit in certain areas. I’m actually expecting it to.

I still don’t think he’d be worth 14m dollars a year, but I think Green Bay likely overpaid with Adams. What’s going to happen to Cobb, now? Can they seriously afford Rodgers, Nelson, Adams and Cobb? I doubt it.

 

[BigPharma]

He is right now, although another offseason and fall with Brady may help him grow a bit in certain areas. I’m actually expecting it to.

I still don’t think he’d be worth 14m dollars a year, but I think Green Bay likely overpaid with Adams. What’s going to happen to Cobb, now? Can they seriously afford Rodgers, Nelson, Adams and Cobb? I doubt it.

Cobb is either gonna have to restructure or be phased out. He just doesn't have the production for the cap hit.

 

[luuked]

If that’s really the case, then we can start to prepare for 2019 without him.

If the 2018 version of Cooks is as one dimensional as this year's version then I agree that we wont pay him that amount of money.

But with a huge offseason looming where we could lose both our coordinators, who knows if O'Shea might actually use Cooks differently (better?) than Josh. Yes the system will stay the same but the way blocking and route patterns are designed can change between coordinators to the point where suddenly Cooks is used more in space in a AB-esque matter.

 

[maineman209]

He is right now, although another offseason and fall with Brady may help him grow a bit in certain areas. I’m actually expecting it to.

I still don’t think he’d be worth 14m dollars a year, but I think Green Bay likely overpaid with Adams. What’s going to happen to Cobb, now? Can they seriously afford Rodgers, Nelson, Adams and Cobb? I doubt it.

The Packers now have three WRs in the Top-20 in terms of $/year. The Broncos have two (Sanders and Thomas). No other team has more than one.

At the moment, the Pats' top paid WR in $/year is Edelman. He's #34 on the APY list at $5.5M.

 

[maineman209]

Cobb is either gonna have to restructure or be phased out. He just doesn't have the production for the cap hit.

IDK.

Cobb is 27 years old and has been maintaining a 67%-72% catch rate for most of his career (72% this season) at ~10 ypc as a possession receiver. He's also been an excellent punt returner (back up to Trevor Davis the past two seasons).

Nelson is 32 and has been more of a downfield threat for them, even though he's a "slot receiver". He's been Rodgers' favorite tgt and biggest yardage and TD producer since 2011. However, his catch rate began declining back in 2014 from 67%+ to below 64% in 2016 while his YPC also declined.

Both are UFA at the end of 2018, so both seem to be candidates for extensions that reduce their future cap hits.

BTW - Prior to Adams' extension, the Packers had about $42M in 2018 cap space. So they're not really hurting.

 

[maineman209]

I think there's a significant difference between saying, "Cooks is too one-dimensional", and saying, "Cooks has been more one-dimensional this season."

While it's a fact that Cooks' most prominent plays have come from him getting behind defenders and catching a bomb from Brady, it's also a fact that he's caught a lot of shorter tgts, and that his YAC% (of total receiving yards) has been significantly lower this season than it ever was during his time with the Saints.

It seems to me that, when Cooks has caught passes at shorter depth, he's been immediately surrounded by multiple defenders most of the time.

Which leads me to wonder if Cooks would have appeared to us to be so "one-dimensional" this season had Edelman and Mitchell been playing and defenses had been less able to key on him.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'd offer Cooks 11 million a season.

Then he'll leave.

You can't pay him that much less than the top 10 at his position.

 

[RobertWeathers]

IDK.

Cobb is 27 years old and has been maintaining a 67%-72% catch rate for most of his career (72% this season) at ~10 ypc as a possession receiver. He's also been an excellent punt returner (back up to Trevor Davis the past two seasons).

Nelson is 32 and has been more of a downfield threat for them, even though he's a "slot receiver". He's been Rodgers' favorite tgt and biggest yardage and TD producer since 2011. However, his catch rate began declining back in 2014 from 67%+ to below 64% in 2016 while his YPC also declined.

Both are UFA at the end of 2018, so both seem to be candidates for extensions that reduce their future cap hits.

BTW - Prior to Adams' extension, the Packers had about $42M in 2018 cap space. So they're not really hurting.

My GB buddy tells me Nelson has lost speed. He'll either need to restructure or be cut.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He is right now, although another offseason and fall with Brady may help him grow a bit in certain areas. I’m actually expecting it to.

I still don’t think he’d be worth 14m dollars a year, but I think Green Bay likely overpaid with Adams. What’s going to happen to Cobb, now? Can they seriously afford Rodgers, Nelson, Adams and Cobb? I doubt it.

GB projects Adams to put up big numbers. Only way to justify $14m/ per

 

[RobertWeathers]

I can't imagine Bill paying Cooks $11M, let alone $14M. If he were a game changing player like Brown/Jones/Beckham/Hopkins, then maybe. But in comparison to those guys, he's way too one-dimensional and seems to require Brady making a perfectly placed downfield bomb for all his chunk plays, as opposed to making plays on his own (ex. taking a slant for 40+ yards).

Why do people think BB will not pay Cooks market when he gave up a #1 pick for him and just had a 1000yd season on a soon-to-be 13-3 team?

Additionally, if he distinguishes himself in the playoffs, Bill will pay him. Bank it.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Cooks said he wants to finish his career here so they can pay him anything

 

[maineman209]

Why do people think BB will not pay Cooks market when he gave up a #1 pick for him and just had a 1000yd season on a soon-to-be 13-3 team?

Additionally, if he distinguishes himself in the playoffs, Bill will pay him. Bank it.

At some point, folks need to realize that the market price for very good (not even "elite") WRs is going up. Even at $8.5M next season, Cooks will barely crack the top-25 in $APY. At $11M in 2019 (with a higher cap than 2018), he might not even crack the top-20.

Kind of ironic that it's BB who has the reputation for being a "cheapskate."

 

[RobertWeathers]

At some point, folks need to realize that the market price for very good (not even "elite") WRs is going up. Even at $8.5M next season, Cooks will barely crack the top-25 in $APY. At $11M in 2019 (with a higher cap than 2018), he might not even crack the top-20.

Kind of ironic that it's BB who has the reputation for being a "cheapskate."

Exactly. I have no idea if Cooks will stay but I'm pretty sure BB will pay him market rate. With that said, it might be a combo of a market rate signing bonus and incentives based on performance. He may/may not find that agreeable. Only way to find out is to negotiate.

 

[PF_SU]

Why do people think BB will not pay Cooks market when he gave up a #1 pick for him and just had a 1000yd season on a soon-to-be 13-3 team?

Additionally, if he distinguishes himself in the playoffs, Bill will pay him. Bank it.

I have a bit of trouble sorting in Cooks right now. From what I feel (others who watch more tape may be able to better evaluate it) the team isn't particularly focusing on getting him easy underneath / short catches. Slants, or short comeback routes etc.

The last two years in New Orleans he caught 84 and 78 balls on 246 targets (65.9%) for 14.3 ypc. This season he is at 60 catches and a catch rate of 58.3%, but for 16.7 ypc. 41 of his 103 targets were deep passes (39.8%) and he caught 22 of them (53.7%). By comparison in New Orleans the previous two years he got 78 deep passes (31.7%) and caught 32 of them (41.0%).

 

[RobertWeathers]

I have a bit of trouble sorting in Cooks right now. From what I feel (others who watch more tape may be able to better evaluate it) the team isn't particularly focusing on getting him easy underneath / short catches. Slants, or short comeback routes etc.

The last two years in New Orleans he caught 84 and 78 balls on 246 targets (65.9%) for 14.3 ypc. This season he is at 60 catches and a catch rate of 58.3%, but for 16.7 ypc. 41 of his 103 targets were deep passes (39.8%) and he caught 22 of them (53.7%). By comparison in New Orleans the previous two years he got 78 deep passes (31.7%) and caught 32 of them (41.0%).

Very interesting. His catch rate on deep passes is very, very good.

 

[luuked]

I think there's a significant difference between saying, "Cooks is too one-dimensional", and saying, "Cooks has been more one-dimensional this season."

While it's a fact that Cooks' most prominent plays have come from him getting behind defenders and catching a bomb from Brady, it's also a fact that he's caught a lot of shorter tgts, and that his YAC% (of total receiving yards) has been significantly lower this season than it ever was during his time with the Saints.

It seems to me that, when Cooks has caught passes at shorter depth, he's been immediately surrounded by multiple defenders most of the time.

Which leads me to wonder if Cooks would have appeared to us to be so "one-dimensional" this season had Edelman and Mitchell been playing and defenses had been less able to key on him.

I agree with all of it and this was also why I am phrasing my words so carefully when it comes to Cooks. I feel like he has much more potential to be used in a variety of ways than just the deep/comeback stuff that was his domain this year.

 

[luuked]

Why do people think BB will not pay Cooks market when he gave up a #1 pick for him and just had a 1000yd season on a soon-to-be 13-3 team?

Additionally, if he distinguishes himself in the playoffs, Bill will pay him. Bank it.

Because there is a good chance BB feels like he can have 80% of that production for 50% of the money. I think you are getting hung up on that first round pick too much. That pick was primarily for 2 years of a known commodity that needs no development and can produce immediately at cheap.

Again we are all basing this off what happened this year so far. I like Cooks and think that we are not using him close to his potential yet but everything he has shown so far is not worth a market rate WR contract to me. But that is as much his fault as it is the fault of Brady and McDaniels.

 

[maineman209]

I have a bit of trouble sorting in Cooks right now. From what I feel (others who watch more tape may be able to better evaluate it) the team isn't particularly focusing on getting him easy underneath / short catches. Slants, or short comeback routes etc.

The last two years in New Orleans he caught 84 and 78 balls on 246 targets (65.9%) for 14.3 ypc. This season he is at 60 catches and a catch rate of 58.3%, but for 16.7 ypc. 41 of his 103 targets were deep passes (39.8%) and he caught 22 of them (53.7%). By comparison in New Orleans the previous two years he got 78 deep passes (31.7%) and caught 32 of them (41.0%).

Last season in NOL, Cooks had 117 tgts, but Michael Thomas had 121 tgts and Snead had 104 (Fleener was 4th with 81).

In 2015, Cooks had 129 tgts, but Watson had 110 and Snead had 101 (Colston was 4th with 67).

This season, Cooks has 103 tgts and Gronk has 105, but Amendola is 3rd with 79 and White is 4th with 72. Due to the absences of Edelman, Mitchell and Hogan (for half the season), Cooks simply hasn't had as many other guys taking the heat off him this season as he had in NOL.

ALSO, the Pats have made about 100 fewer pass attempts this season than the Saints did in 2015 and 2016.