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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Most of the time you will see that I'm fully behind BB, I'm not saying his decision was wrong yesterday either, I'm simply stating that mathematical equations are not a way to decide whether it was a right or wrong play.which tell you what, exactly, O Unrecognized Genius Of The Gridiron?
Similarly, one can easily look up the probability the opposing team will score based on starting on our own 25 yard line.
1. There is no way the opponent's EV, from our own 25, is 3 points. That is the absolute baseline value, if they F up everything they still get 3 points. The EV is larger than 3.
Most of the time you will see that I'm fully behind BB, I'm not saying his decision was wrong yesterday either, I'm simply stating that mathematical equations are not a way to decide whether it was a right or wrong play.
What I did say is that its not a recommended play imo. And its not BB like either.
My guess is that he did it because he was prepared to take a chance in the hope of not having to put the D back on the field that quickly.
3. Love teams that use fourth down
Teams are considered successful on third downs if they convert 40 percent of the time. Of course, the longer the distance the less likely to convert.
I find it exciting football strategy when coaches go for it on fourth down. On Sunday, NFL coaches kept their offense on the field for 41 fourth-down situations, and they successfully converted 25 of those plays, or 61 percent. The most interesting teams using fourth down to maintain possession were the Patriots and Bengals. Both teams were 3-for-3 on the do-or-die down, and both won their game against formidable opponents.
The Patriots went for it on fourth-and-1 on their own 24-yard line, ahead 16-10 in the third quarter. Eight plays later in that same drive, they converted a fourth-and-3 with a 21-yard completion from Tom Brady to Randy Moss. Later in the game, Brady went back to Moss with an 8-yard pass on a fourth-and-1. The Patriots were not going to give the Falcons offense the ball and liked their chances on fourth down.
The Bengals were chasing the Steelers and had to use the fourth-down attack to win the game. A fake punt worked, and then they later moved the chains with two fourth-down passes.
More teams need to look at their fourth-down package and use it. Bad teams have nothing to lose and good teams will make more than they miss.
This isn't anything new, bud. Even Easterbrook has been harping on this strategy since even before the 2007 'eff-you' season.
It doesn't change the fact that there is a huge difference between the 4th downs Belichick generally tries to go for (99.9% of the time on the opponents' side of the field or at least very close), and doing it on your own 25 in the 3rd quarter trying to maintain a slim lead in what's been a close game.
It's possible, but please don't pretend like this is something you're going to see storming around the league like the wildcat. LOL
BB or no BB I thought the call was ******ed
It would have given Atlanta at least an easy FG and changed the game dramatically
I don't want to see this again,A move like that is as risky as having Lung Cancer and still smoking 2 packs a day.
Some of you would have been hypocrites if it didn't work and said BB is on drugs for doing it - It was stupid IMO whether they made it or not,More dumb than gutsy IMO
BB looked brilliant when it worked...If he didn't we would hear synchronized whining of 'WTF' throughout Patriot Nation
Obviously everyone is happy that it worked out great, and it was a key point in the game.
However, no amount of pseudo-math or pseudo-stats can make a legit rational case why it was a smart move, based on reason or analysis, to prove that going for it on 4th down at your own 25 in the 3rd quarter in a close game, is a smart rational move.
Using a simple payoff tree, the benefit/payoff is a 1st down near your own 25, the penalty/damage is a sure FG for the other team, or a decent chance at giving up a TD. No matter how much you manipulate the percentages of likelihood, it's not a smart call.
Even Belichick admitted it wasn't a smart rational move in his post game interview, he admitted he would have gotten roasted if it didn't work.
I have read those research papers advocating going for it on 4th down. I generally agree that especially past your own 40 yard line, there are circumstances where you should go for it more. However, some of their research claims and inputs are just crazy. Some economists advocate that once you are past the opponent's 35 yard line, you should always go for it, even if it is 4th and 10. These people are using odd inputs, assumptions, and illogical football knowledge to make their cases.
Maybe you should re-read the thread (and my point). I was pointing out that any ONE specific 4th down situation should not be determined by the overall statistical evidence that suggests going for it is the right play. I compared it to poker in the sense that just because a play is right against 90% of opponents doesn't mean you should ALWAYS make that play (for instance if you had a good read on your opponent that suggested it was the wrong move, you wouldn't make that move just because 90% of the time against the general poker population it would be right).
I've argued in this forum that these so called "studies" about going for it on 4th down are severely flawed. They simply do not take into account other bad scenarios that can occur to a team while on offense that are negated with a chance to punt. They also assume an unwarranted likelihood of success in the remainder of the drive.
Most of the time you will see that I'm fully behind BB, I'm not saying his decision was wrong yesterday either, I'm simply stating that mathematical equations are not a way to decide whether it was a right or wrong play.
I
Risk/reward. Risk - You give the ball to other team 24yds from your goal line. And,
staring at a defecit. Reward. You still only have the ball at your own 25 with a long way to go towards putting points on the board. IE. Reward wasn't worth the risk. If we were losing by 6 and you feel the game is slipping away. That puts more in the reward column if you get it. But, all in all I feel it was a helluva risk. And, not necessary.
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