Florio: Browns laying foundation for trade down (Garrett not their sure #1)

[tasmlab]

Jimmy is available. But at the right price.
And that's 2 firsts plus.

Watch it be a mid-round second for Jimmy with Ninkovich thrown in, sort of like what BB got for Cassel.

 

[varjao]

I'd trade down too, for a team so bad like the Browns, even the best pass rusher in the league won't move the needle in the winning direction. If he get's 2 sacks a game, even if those are two 3rd down stops, or putting the other team on a 3rd and 20, it's not going to help much if the other team can still score 2 TD's and 2 FG's and you can't outscore them.

I was thinking today, what happened with those plans of dumping Osweiller? Maybe they are not panicking because if they draft Fournette or the other top RB and strength their O-line that is already a good unit, with Osweiller they can possible be in the 6-10 7-9 conversation which is already a good improvement. For the Browns right now the most important thing is build a culture of winning games, they can't tank even if things start to go bad and there's a Peyton Manning type going for the next draft.

Of course Osweiller is not the answer long term and he was bad in Houston, but he was cool when playing in Denver, right now has some good experience and may work out at least for this year.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Garrett is a guy i am not super super high on. Should he go first? Yeah. Do I think he is a sure thing? No. I think he will be good but not a sure thing. Also other pass rushers in this draft might turn out to be better and it would not surprise me.

Trading down is clearly the best value. The top of this draft has issues.

Allen with his medical, Garrett with some off the field and competition questions. The only guy I feel like is 100% sure to be a probowler for years and years is Hooker.

I agree. Best move for the Browns is to consider trading their first round pick, either to trade down and accumulate more picks, or as part of a package for Jimmy Garopollo. This is what I've been saying since day one, that they are being way too bull headed about their first pick and acting like it's off-limits. Not all first overall picks are created equal, and unless there is a sure-fire quarterback who you really like (and not someone who you are talking yourself into), the pick does not even have that much value anymore. The draft value chart created by Jimmy Johnson should be torn up, since the modern quarterback position has completely changed the priorities and realities of NFL teams.

 

[DW Toys]

Garrett is a guy i am not super super high on. Should he go first? Yeah. Do I think he is a sure thing? No. I think he will be good but not a sure thing. Also other pass rushers in this draft might turn out to be better and it would not surprise me.

Trading down is clearly the best value. The top of this draft has issues.

Allen with his medical, Garrett with some off the field and competition questions. The only guy I feel like is 100% sure to be a probowler for years and years is Hooker.

You might be right.
Think of the finances:
2016 #1 overall pick Jared Goff earned approximately $27,946,656 on his rookie contract with the Los Angeles Rams, including a $18,515,839 signing bonus.
Methinks that will arch BB's eyebrows.

Rather gamble on Watt plus two ones from the Texans and they need a QB to be competitive. They even won with Osweiler.

Or........I think BB has a good relationship with John Lynch from his short time here. I'd be happy with two ones from SF and Carlos Hyde who would answer our RB issue if he can stay healthy. Just today, chatter is SF will move him.
Gets JG out of the AFC

Lynch knows he might have to spend a first on a QB anyway. If not this year then next. He is hoping they are competitive this year. If so, getting one of the big 3 in 2018 might not happen. Good for the Team, bad for next years Draft.
DW Toys





DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

I'd trade down too, for a team so bad like the Browns, even the best pass rusher in the league won't move the needle in the winning direction. If he get's 2 sacks a game, even if those are two 3rd down stops, or putting the other team on a 3rd and 20, it's not going to help much if the other team can still score 2 TD's and 2 FG's and you can't outscore them.

I was thinking today, what happened with those plans of dumping Osweiller? Maybe they are not panicking because if they draft Fournette or the other top RB and strength their O-line that is already a good unit, with Osweiller they can possible be in the 6-10 7-9 conversation which is already a good improvement. For the Browns right now the most important thing is build a culture of winning games, they can't tank even if things start to go bad and there's a Peyton Manning type going for the next draft.

Of course Osweiller is not the answer long term and he was bad in Houston, but he was cool when playing in Denver, right now has some good experience and may work out at least for this year.

He played a good game against us in the Playoffs minus a couple bad plays. They could have beaten us. He outplayed Brady most of the game. The Texans were tougher than the Steelers with BO at the QB in our Playoff run.
DW Toys

 

[AzPatsFan]

The number one pick in the draft for a QB who has played a game and a half is insane. And you want more on top of that? I know fans overrate their own players and prospect, but that's just ridiculous.

Don't be a Fool He was a high Second round pick who was a 4 year starter in college, threw for 5000 yards, has been groomed for three years, and has demonstrated the ability to start and excel at the NFL level.

Yet you would expend a First for a guy who was not good enuf to start in college till his senior year, and played only 13 games?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I'd trade down too, for a team so bad like the Browns, even the best pass rusher in the league won't move the needle in the winning direction. If he get's 2 sacks a game, even if those are two 3rd down stops, or putting the other team on a 3rd and 20, it's not going to help much if the other team can still score 2 TD's and 2 FG's and you can't outscore them.

I was thinking today, what happened with those plans of dumping Osweiller? Maybe they are not panicking because if they draft Fournette or the other top RB and strength their O-line that is already a good unit, with Osweiller they can possible be in the 6-10 7-9 conversation which is already a good improvement. For the Browns right now the most important thing is build a culture of winning games, they can't tank even if things start to go bad and there's a Peyton Manning type going for the next draft.

Of course Osweiller is not the answer long term and he was bad in Houston, but he was cool when playing in Denver, right now has some good experience and may work out at least for this year.

He played a good game against us in the Playoffs minus a couple bad plays. They could have beaten us. He outplayed Brady most of the game. The Texans were tougher than the Steelers with BO at the QB in our Playoff run.
DW Toys

Guys, Osweiler absolutely sucks.

I have no idea how you can even suggest his performance in the playoffs was a positive in any way. Brady played easily his worst game of the season, and even then, Osweiler didn't hold a candle to him. Brady still had a higher passer rating (68.6 to 47.6) and QBR (56.9 to 13.7). Brady played an anomalous bad game for him but still threw 287 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. Even though his completion percentage was below 50, Brady averaged 7.6 yards per attempt and led the team to multiple sustained drives.

Osweiler threw three interceptions and averaged 4.9 YPA. His only touchdown drive was a 12-yard gimme after Lewis fumbled on a kickoff return. These were the Texans drives in yardage: 3, 2, 62 (extended by a post-third down taunting penalty after a net drive of -8), 9, 18, 12 (TD after Lewis fumble), 5, 7, 23, 21 (INT), 53, 6, 0 (INT), 5, 49 (INT).

That is complete and utter ineptitude, and the Patriots had gone into a soft zone in the second half. I think it speaks volumes that was his last game as a Texan, who desperately tried to unload him and found only one team willing to take him, and only in exchange for a draft pick...the only time in the history of the NFL that a player has been dumped NBA style.

 

[Thelonious]

The problem is that they are in ohio.. Have any of you ever been there or at least watched the drew Cary show? They make clothes look deliberately horrible like animal skins.. They all wear coke bottle glasses and read stupid stories. The mistake on the lake folks may have even slithered out of lake Erie only a few days ago. Now they are bummed out because they cant find a high enough building to jump off from.

I read that when they named the state, their #1 priority was to come with something easy to spell. Compare their state's name with Massachusetts, for example. Around that time, all the bright people in present-day Ohio moved to New York State and founded Rensselaer and Schenectady.

 

[heavyde050]

Don't be a Fool He was a high Second round pick who was a 4 year starter in college, threw for 5000 yards, has been groomed for three years, and has demonstrated the ability to start and excel at the NFL level.

Yet you would expend a First for a guy who was not good enuf to start in college till his senior year, and played only 13 games?

To be fair Jimmy was the third to last pick in the second round. He was by no means a "high" second round pick.
I do agree Jimmy is a good quarterback and at this stage in his career is better than any rookie in the current draft (can't say for sure on ceiling though).

NFL.com Draft 2017 - NFL Draft History: Full Draft Year

 

[Ring 6]

You are correct. Much riskier to draft a quarterback.

List of 1st Round Quarterback Selections, Since 2010

Andrew Luck (1)
Cam Newton (1)
Jameis Winston (1)
Sam Bradford (1)
Jared Goff (1)
Marcus Mariota (2)
Carson Wentz (2)
Blake Bortles (3)
Ryan Tannehill (8)
Jake Locker (8)
Blaine Gabbert (10)
Christian Ponder (12)
EJ Manuel (16)
Johnny Manziel (22)
Brandon Weeden (22)
Tim Tebow (25)
Paxton Lynch (26)
Teddy Bridgewater (32)

Clearly this shows when there are obvious, can't miss prospects, you want to draft them immediately. It's not surprising that the clear-cut top quarterbacks, which almost every scout said would be good (Luck, Newton, Bradford, Winston, Mariota) have been worth the gamble, although the jury is still out on the latter two, and Bradford is hard to evaluate due to injuries. Beyond the obvious blue chip prospects, though, pretty much whenever scouts have had big concerns but still used a first round pick, these guys have busted. Taking "the best available quarterback of the class" has led to some terrible results. The class of 2017 has huge question marks all around.

Notable Quarterback Selections, Since 2010

Just to show what a total crapshoot the draft is beyond the obvious can't miss quarterbacks:

Andy Dalton (2nd round, 35 overall)
Colin Kaepernick (2nd round, 36 overall)
Derek Carr (2nd round, 36 overall)
Mike Glennon (3rd round, 75 overall)
Russell Wilson (3rd round, 75 overall)
Kirk Cousins (4th round, 102 overall)
Dak Prescott (4th round, 135 overall)
Tyrod Taylor (6th round, 180 overall)
Trevor Siemian (7th round, 250 overall)

This has more to do with the volume of draft picks than anything else, and the idea that if you draft a ton of quarterbacks, some will pan out. Still, looking at the grades on all of these players, it further reinforces the concept that a lot of this is random, and the odds are against you. Three years of practice, an apprenticeship with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, preseason and six quarters of regular season game film, all add up to a more likely chance of success.

You wrote a post trying to predict how future players would play based upon what different players in the past did (with much hindsight) then concluded that
Playing for belichick
Being Brady's teammate
Playing in the preseason
Playing 6 quarters in the NFL in your first 3 years

Is better.

None of those things have ever procen tobequal success with the exception of Brady playing for belichick.

 

[mosslost]

Garoppolo is as good of a prospective starter as there is in the league right now. If you don't have a starting quarterback you trust, you're interested in Garoppolo.

These draftniks who expect the world on a plate for him in terms of draft picks are probably going to be disappointed in the return if he is traded. I really think these offers floating around are a result of Belichick throwing ridiculous prices around to scare off anyone who's not totally serious. I don't think 2 firsts is realistic considering the short time the team would have Garoppolo under control, and a trade with a conditional extension is probably going to cost less in terms of picks.

Since, while I believe we absolutely must keep an open mind, I fully believe Brady won't ACTUALLY decline on a favorable timetable for Garoppolo plans, I think he will be traded, either now or in the near future. For G's own sake I'm really hoping he winds up in a better place than Cleveland. My personal preference would be for him to wind up in Houston somehow. The Texan franchise needs a good quarterback and are in a position to treat Garoppolo right. And he'd probably be able to make that franchise one of the most respectable in the NFL if he lives up to his promise.

We don't want to turn them into an AFC contender. Browns or NFC

 

[Ring 6]

Garappolo has game tape of him shredding an NFC Conference Finalist from 2015 and an eventual 2016 playoff team.
Goff was drafted #1 last year without game tape of him successfully fielding a snap from under center and properly dropping back to throw.
Your statement is probably the current conventional wisdom, but the conventional wisdom is very wrong if that's the case. Jimmy G was good enough to be a 2nd round pick three years ago, and nothing he's done since should have diminished his value. I'd happily trade the #12 overall pick and next year's #1 for Jimmy, or the #1 overall. If the Pats are demanding more than that I'd have to hash it over with my scouting dept.

He didn't shred the cardinals. He played ok.
Goff wasn't drafted for 2017. By his 3rd year you can compare him to where garoppolo was last year.

Just flip the script for a minute. Back in 1993 when the patriots were pretty much what the browns are now are you seriously telling me you would have traded the #1 plus next years number 1 for a QB who was drafted in the late second round 3 years ago, and has sat on the bench for 3 years except for starting 1 game and playing decent then starting a second and playing a really good half but getting injured and wasn't able to play the next 2 games at least.

The rest of the world doesn't think just because he is a patriot the only thing that exists is his best case projection.

 

[mosslost]

If Garoppolo plays 10 snaps this year and hits the FA market next year, he'll command north of 14m AAV - well north. Probably 17+.

There's three years of preseason tape on him, showing mechanics, progress, and development, and then, when it counted, he went on the road to Arizona and beat them, then obliterated Miami in one half of football.

I'd sure as hell trade the #1 for him than use it to draft any of the guys coming out this year.

You know what's most overrated? Draft picks.

Jadeveon Clowney is into Year 4 of his rookie contracts and has registered 10.5 sacks. And he's 7m against the cap this year.

He'll probably blossom this year, if he can stay healthy, then get his option picked up for big bucks, then command ridiculous money after next year as a UFA.

There's your surest #1 pick since Andrew Luck.

Meanwhile, Derek Carr is one of the rare college QBs of late to blossom into a more-than-capable QB and look at his value to the Raiders - easy to see, since we all witnessed what happened to that contender when he broke his leg.

JJ Watt might be the best defensive player of this era...count his rings.

QB is everything.

>>You know what's most overrated? Draft picks.

Agree. The Patriots on Offense at least is loaded with 4th, 6th and UFA players. And we have Butler Undrafted too on D.

 

[mosslost]

If Garoppolo plays 10 snaps this year and hits the FA market next year, he'll command north of 14m AAV - well north. Probably 17+.

There's three years of preseason tape on him, showing mechanics, progress, and development, and then, when it counted, he went on the road to Arizona and beat them, then obliterated Miami in one half of football.

I'd sure as hell trade the #1 for him than use it to draft any of the guys coming out this year.

You know what's most overrated? Draft picks.

Jadeveon Clowney is into Year 4 of his rookie contracts and has registered 10.5 sacks. And he's 7m against the cap this year.

He'll probably blossom this year, if he can stay healthy, then get his option picked up for big bucks, then command ridiculous money after next year as a UFA.

There's your surest #1 pick since Andrew Luck.

Meanwhile, Derek Carr is one of the rare college QBs of late to blossom into a more-than-capable QB and look at his value to the Raiders - easy to see, since we all witnessed what happened to that contender when he broke his leg.

JJ Watt might be the best defensive player of this era...count his rings.

QB is everything.

>>QB is everything.

This plus what you said about draft picks supports the argument to just keep Jimmy for 2 more years, even if we lose him for nothing. Just in case he becomes the guy in those 2 years.

 

[mosslost]

I have to assume he knew that at the time he made those trades.

He turn his first two round draft picks into two young already experienced players.

 

[varjao]

Guys, Osweiler absolutely sucks.

Yeah I agree he sucked in Houston and I don't know what game or in what kind of state DW Toys watched that game, Houston were never on it even when the Patriots were shooting themselves in the foot.

But, he played Ok in Denver in that system, mechanics a part, at least from a pressure perspective. In Houston though he was like a deer in the headlights. We don't know what happened indoors, maybe he was under a lot of pressure from the ownership because of his contract, maybe BoB somehow ****ed up early approaching him like "Look kid, nothing against you, you are not my guy, you are a Rick Smith hire, but since you are already here let's work this out". You say this thing to a guy mentally strong and he will make you eat those words, Osweiller may have crapped his pants, of course, all speculative here, but considering that right now BoB has mismanaged his QB situations many times I don't doubt he somehow ****ed this too, he's a good coach, but he needs to prove he can manage the QB situation, so far he messed up everytime he needed to step up.

So obviously after a frustrating season Houston didn't insist in that mistake, they were 100% right this time, it was going to only get worse, but that doesn't mean Osweiller can't work out elsewhere, by work out I mean being a game manager in a team with talent distributed in other positions.

 

[slam]

He didn't shred the cardinals. He played ok.
Goff wasn't drafted for 2017. By his 3rd year you can compare him to where garoppolo was last year.

Just flip the script for a minute. Back in 1993 when the patriots were pretty much what the browns are now are you seriously telling me you would have traded the #1 plus next years number 1 for a QB who was drafted in the late second round 3 years ago, and has sat on the bench for 3 years except for starting 1 game and playing decent then starting a second and playing a really good half but getting injured and wasn't able to play the next 2 games at least.

The rest of the world doesn't think just because he is a patriot the only thing that exists is his best case projection.

In the 1993 scenario, am I swimming in excess draft picks and are there nothing but future EJ Manuels in the draft pool? Because if so I gladly trade the #12 overall pick and next year's #1 or something at that level.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You wrote a post trying to predict how future players would play based upon what different players in the past did (with much hindsight) then concluded that
Playing for belichick
Being Brady's teammate
Playing in the preseason
Playing 6 quarters in the NFL in your first 3 years

Is better.

None of those things have ever procen tobequal success with the exception of Brady playing for belichick.

Belichick highly values Garopollo and is fine with foregoing multiple draft picks for him. It offsets risk when this comes from the best GM/talent evaluator in the NFL. I'm pretty sure if they could acquire him for a mid-round pick (which would be going rate for an average backup QB with a year remaining on his rookie deal), they might also start to wonder why Belichick is so willing to move on. Belichick is willing to walk away from a huge payoff of draft picks, and he probably will. That in itself is telling.

Being Brady's teammate, in addition to learning the craft from him, certainly connects to your other "points". It is an automatic mark down of a player's abilities because he didn't usurp the best quarterback in the league? Because any other quarterback in the entire NFL would have played a maximum of four games over the last three seasons if they were Brady's backup. Aaron Rodgers was terrible as Favre's backup, and Steve Young was a joke as Montana's backup. Isn't that the logical conclusion here?

Beyond that, there is no reason to even argue with you. The Browns already believe Garopollo is better than any QB prospect in the draft; that isn't even debatable. You are arguing that they would be better off using a draft pick on a quarterback, even though they clearly don't like those draft pick options and are intent on acquiring Garopollo instead. They have settled for "projects" in the past and landed big prizes in Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel. I guess they should just roll the dice on a 22 year old with major question marks because Garopollo, even though he is their top rated available quarterback, has been a bench warmer behind Tom Brady.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yeah I agree he sucked in Houston and I don't know what game or in what kind of state DW Toys watched that game, Houston were never on it even when the Patriots were shooting themselves in the foot.

But, he played Ok in Denver in that system, mechanics a part, at least from a pressure perspective. In Houston though he was like a deer in the headlights. We don't know what happened indoors, maybe he was under a lot of pressure from the ownership because of his contract, maybe BoB somehow ****ed up early approaching him like "Look kid, nothing against you, you are not my guy, you are a Rick Smith hire, but since you are already here let's work this out". You say this thing to a guy mentally strong and he will make you eat those words, Osweiller may have crapped his pants, of course, all speculative here, but considering that right now BoB has mismanaged his QB situations many times I don't doubt he somehow ****ed this too, he's a good coach, but he needs to prove he can manage the QB situation, so far he messed up everytime he needed to step up.

So obviously after a frustrating season Houston didn't insist in that mistake, they were 100% right this time, it was going to only get worse, but that doesn't mean Osweiller can't work out elsewhere, by work out I mean being a game manager in a team with talent distributed in other positions.

In Houston, Bill O'Brien comes from a New England background, where the quarterback needed to be really good and have fast recognition, as well as multiple reads, in order to be successful. It is a well-known fact now that O'Brien didn't like the Osweiler move from the beginning and didn't think he was a good fit.

In terms of Osweiler in Denver, let's remember that Gary Kubiak has made Matt Schaub look like a good player. That offenses is always build around a very specific offensive philosophy that emphasizes running backs and tight ends. Osweiler never really looked great there; he played adequately to win a few games while the running game got the big chunks of yards and the defense was lights out.

 

[Rdforty2]

This Garrett falling or questioning him is funny. There's just nothing going on so random things come out for discussion. There's nothing to it with Garrett. He's a freak. He's got the size, length, athleticism, speed, quickness, strength, production .... he is as complete a package as you can find. Is he a sure thing? No one ever is, but he's as good as any pass rusher that can come into the draft. It is an easy decision for the Browns. Take Garrett. He is a game changer. They do not need to trade down. They already have a slew of picks in the next 2 starts. After signing some guys to go with last year's additioms, they need impact players not more picks. Get a QB and Garrett, and it's a totally different team.

And if by some miracle the Patriots got #1, Garrett better be the pick. That type of game changer off the edge isn't something the team coming off a super title can add very often.