ESPN Death Spiral

[Bill Lee]

The reason for declining TV viewership could simply be the NFL was not really sold the emerging generation to watch the entire game - the generation with the least patience. Asking them to watch 3.5 hours with lots and lots of commercials. Then expect them to do this all Sunday afternoon, Monday evenings, Thursday evenings. A lot of people keep track of the game but don't watch the entire game - listen or follow online.

That definitely is a factor. In ye old days before the internet and mobile devices there wasn't much to hold one's attention so it was easier for football and baseball to gain traction. Now the games are just too long and there's so many of them available so very few games rise above the noise level. Add to all that the countless redundant commercials (how many times have we seen Payme Manning's mug on commercials, and now Ahole Rodgers) and it's an unwatcheable mess.

I know I lost interest in baseball once there was so much of it that it really could not hold one's attention. How can one concentrate for 162 ball games a season, and multiple rounds of playoffs? Now football is getting close to that level of saturation. Just a season or two ago Goodell floated the idea of adding another wildcard team to the playoffs. Luckily it didn't gain any traction. Yet. It shows the way the league office thinks. If a little is good, a lot must be great! Yet I think the right thing to do would be for the NFL to end TNF. It'd be best for the game and for the players and for the owners too. However, doing so would be admitting that the game has reached saturation point, and the NFL won't do that if it can avoid it.

I've watched a large majority of the NFL on my DVR for at least a decade now, and without the DVR the game is unwatchable alone, due to the huge number of interruptions in the flow of the game due to the NFL's decision to inject countless commercials.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Pretty much the only commercials I ever see are when I watch a live Pats game and the Super Bowl. Every other commercial my trusty Tivo pretty much makes vanish. So that suggests the NFL still has an advantage over other programming once DVRs become widespread.

There are multiple things happening here:

1. Quality of games has declined - some combination of fewer stars, less practice, more flags, erratic refereeing, Thursday games

2. Saturation of games over the week

3. Saturation of commercials within games, particularly after a score.

4. Impact of fantasy football - the less serious players don't watch complete games any more.

5. Red Zone syphons off some viewers

6. Cable-cutting

7. Goodell

The NFL can do something about 1,2, 3 and 7 - the rest is beyond their control. Fixing 2 and 3 will lead to lower revenue.

 

[wizwor]

So it should be a matter of time before revenue loss lowers the salary cap - can you imagine what that ripple effect that is going to have?

It won't work like that. The cap will simply stagnate. It's not a bad thing.

 

[pheenix11]

We cut the cord 6 years ago, and it was the best thing we ever did.

And I haven't missed any Pats games.